Cheltenham Festival
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Back to the drawing board, that was great .
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Howdi how could you have written off the best hurdler of the last 5 years
 . This horse has plenty more to give. Think he will be a huge player at cheltenham especially if it comes up soft or soft to heavy. In my opinion no chance at all that RW gets off no matter what Nicholls thinks. |
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Still definitely the one to beat imo, even before todays race.
I couldn't have Darlan ahead of him in the betting. 9/2 a very fair price imo. |
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He had go native covered...oh, we've moved on....the one to beat come march.
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Thought the ATR coverage barely does him justice. Yes its a small field but he has just won a Grade 1 on the bridle by 8L or more. The reason no one turns up is because they know they can't win. Unaccompanied and Thousand stars are hardly selling platers.
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He'd be a dream horse to own, wins grade 1's as he likes.
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I think he'll deffo go off fav again imo.
For me, its between him, Grandouet and Zarkandar. Fallen Angel you are spot on. P!sses up in a grade 1 on the bridle against two good yardsticks and nothing is made of it. The more people dismiss him, the better the prices for us  PS Feel so sorry for Go Native's connections; he would have been right in the mix |
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Yeah I thought of Go Native as HF hacked up. They would have had a excellent outside place chance at a minimum. I like the fact that HF will have a slightly longer break from the last race as last time that slog in the mud in January took a lot out of him. Would like Ruby to ride slightly closer to the pace than he did in last year's CH.
I remember reading CVbryne CH write up from 2011 on here and being on Peddlers cross at the time and still being in doubt as to how much the form was worth. Since then I have been completely won over. Something will have to run to a 170+ to beat him. He has just beaten a 160+ rated horse by 7L could have been 10+. Bring on the young pretenders  |
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although just read the quotes and they are going to Leopardstown again on the 27th Jan
 hope it doesn't come up heavy |
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I'm happy they are having one more race - think he gets better with racing during the season
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Im all over Grandouet for the CH will now rethink as thats the best performance of any the real contenders,the Fly is back and as they will have the going good to soft at best its the Fly v Grandouet with Zarkander&Darlan holding the jackets as we say in Jockoland................and to think Im not going to Cheltenham this year aaaaarrrggggggggggh!
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im a massive fan of the fly and think/hope he is back to his best.his jumping was slick and he travelled well.IMO i hope he is ridden up with the pace in the champ hrdle as last yr he gave rock on ruby to much slack.with no overturn this year wat do u lot think from a pace angle ?
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I can't see us getting the same ground as last year. If its good to soft or softer I can see him winning well.
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i remember a few years back it was heavy ground the week before the festival ,the a week of spring weather and it dried out very quick. however it will be natural ground not the watered good/soft we have been getting recently.
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The Fly is back and i also had written him off ! Darlans race was an odd one and The Fly at the price is Super Now he should be 2s
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Beat nothing today, unless its a bog at the festival then he is playing for a place
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If it is heavy a week before the festival, it ll be soft even with no rain unless it is 70 degrees. The water table is going to remain very high throughout the winter and any rain over the coming months will automatically change the ground if it has dried out on top. Remember that at the Open meeting they started on good to soft ( ok it was still fairly slow ) and after only 6mm of rain they finished on heavy.
This plays to the advantage of the Fly and he has proved his well being however weak today's opposition was. |
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Roobuck correct !!
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I think it has its best chance of being of being soft come march for many a year but i would rather wait until the day.
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Has looked every inch back to his best in the last two runs to me. I can barely believe he is 9/2 and that Darlan is shorter than him. Absolutely baffling. Surprisingly managed to get a reasonable few quid on at 9/2.
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You sure ?
he beat a girl today and the time before he was having a proper race with a horse who was smashed up in the champion hurdle in 2010 ? |
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Not just about the form IS. But the way he travelled, hurdled, quickened. He seemed to have his old swagger back. Thousand Stars is a decent yardstick and I thought Unaccompanied looked a lot better today. Both of them ran more or less to their ability IMO and I think that will end up being decent form and in the high 160's myself.
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TS is a 3 miler.
Dont get me wrong HF is a top class horse but his form in ireland is questionable, using a 3miler as a yardstick... The horse needs to travel to england and take on the top horses (who are not that special) but it will help him win races so much more than trotting around ireland. a 140 handicapper 2mile hurdler could be 2nd HF in ireland. |
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That's not how I see it (apart from the English contingent being average bit). Each to their own mate.
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Just out of interest. If you think TS is a three miler how do you explain his run at Aintree last season? I think you are being very harsh on that horse tbh. Yes he stays, but he isn't slow.
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the average thing was overstated, i would expect HF to win in Ireland against english challengers.
I just think you need a horse that can stay 2m5f at cheltenham to win a champion hurdle. |
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I think TS is top class, watched his runs at auteuil and have been blown away.
But his trip is 2m4f+ Dont you think they are just warming him up ? |
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But HF has already won a Champion Hurdle?! And one that I think was better than his years renewal will prove to be. If he runs to the best of ability, he wins. It's as simple as that for me.
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I definitely don't think he is being trained to peak now, but I just think the horse is rock solid and doesn't know how to run a bad race.
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ok, you may be right. but i cannot get the fact that his win was very slow.
Last cheltenham he ran to his last champion run, dont get me wrong the pace, going etc but you cannot get away from those facts. So HF ran below par last season, he hasnt done that before. Dont forget he is by Montjeu. |
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Sorry don't quite get you. You mean that when he was third last year you think he ran to the same level as when he won? Sorry cant agree with that mate.
I think he was below par last season. Fair point about his sire. But on this seasons evidence, there is no reason to think other thwn he has just come back to himself. He's still only 8 after all and he could have had a minor niggle we didnt know about. If the likes of Kauto can do it, then maybe other greats like HF can! |
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He ran 353 in his win, last festival it was won in 350
Dont take this wrong, i cannot take that horses are below par, unless they are female and mating. |
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I'm not a huge times man myself, too many variables in NH racing.
And I am genuinely flabbergasted you don't think horses can be off form some days. That is the one thing I've never been more certain of  they aren't robots after all. |
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Ground is a huge issue where HF is concerned, in my view. Genuine soft ground will see him with a huge favourites chance. I wouldn't touch him at a favourites price if the ground had good in the description. Grandouet for me, all day long.
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Ground is the biggest factor, and in march if the ground isnt right.....
you really need to add times to your betting position, a horse winning in a bog easily isnt always that impressive if you compare his times. |
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I mean the way races are run throw the times IMO. Regardless of the ground. Used to consider them but decided they werent really helping me. Maybe that's wrong, but best of luck to you with them.
I think the times for the CH wins prove it. I just don't believe HF was the same horse last year even if he ran to the same time. |
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I'd agree that HF wasn't at his best last year and also pay little or no attention to times. In the year he won he simply got better with each race so if he goes to Cheltenham with a clear run he will be a major player whatever the ground.
He is clearly a high class hurdler but to declare him a great and in the same breath as Kauto is pushing things to the extreme imo |
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To the extreme? the horse is 14 from 17 over hurdles including 12 Grade Ones.
I didn't say he was as good as Kauto Star, but he's a certainly earned the right to be called a great to me. |
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I can't have him being described as a "great" yet. Most of his G1 wins have come against a select few horses in Ireland, most of which wouldn't be fit to grace an average Champion Hurdle. Solwhit, Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied & Oscars Well are all good horses, but nothing more. Truly great horses run against and beat other truly great horses. Hurricane Fly hasn't done that. He can obviously only beat what has been put alongside him, and to his credit he's done that. He is quite obviously a good horse, almost certainly an above average G1 horse, but a truly great horse he isn't, in my view.
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Personally think a good few of his Grade 1 wins have been against the same hurdlers in Ireland who have been far from vintage. Don't think he's earnt the right to be called a great yet and your post read if Kauto can do it why cannot another great do it? That was comparing them to my mind and HF has a long long way to go be compared to him.
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