I'd kind of written off Hurricane Fly

I'm not a huge times man myself, too many variables in NH racing.

And I am genuinely flabbergasted you don't think horses can be off form some days. That is the one thing I've never been more certain of they aren't robots after all.

Ground is a huge issue where HF is concerned, in my view. Genuine soft ground will see him with a huge favourites chance. I wouldn't touch him at a favourites price if the ground had good in the description. Grandouet for me, all day long.

Ground is the biggest factor, and in march if the ground isnt right.....

you really need to add times to your betting position, a horse winning in a bog easily isnt always that impressive if you compare his times.

I mean the way races are run throw the times IMO. Regardless of the ground. Used to consider them but decided they werent really helping me. Maybe that's wrong, but best of luck to you with them.

I think the times for the CH wins prove it. I just don't believe HF was the same horse last year even if he ran to the same time.

I'd agree that HF wasn't at his best last year and also pay little or no attention to times. In the year he won he simply got better with each race so if he goes to Cheltenham with a clear run he will be a major player whatever the ground.

He is clearly a high class hurdler but to declare him a great and in the same breath as Kauto is pushing things to the extreme imo

To the extreme? the horse is 14 from 17 over hurdles including 12 Grade Ones.

I didn't say he was as good as Kauto Star, but he's a certainly earned the right to be called a great to me.

I can't have him being described as a "great" yet. Most of his G1 wins have come against a select few horses in Ireland, most of which wouldn't be fit to grace an average Champion Hurdle. Solwhit, Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied & Oscars Well are all good horses, but nothing more. Truly great horses run against and beat other truly great horses. Hurricane Fly hasn't done that. He can obviously only beat what has been put alongside him, and to his credit he's done that. He is quite obviously a good horse, almost certainly an above average G1 horse, but a truly great horse he isn't, in my view.

Personally think a good few of his Grade 1 wins have been against the same hurdlers in Ireland who have been far from vintage. Don't think he's earnt the right to be called a great yet and your post read if Kauto can do it why cannot another great do it? That was comparing them to my mind and HF has a long long way to go be compared to him.

I suppose it depends on your definition of 'great'. Obviously I'm not comparing him to the likes of Dessie, Kauto Star, Big Bucks etc but I think he is the best 2m hurdler since Istabraq and of the last decade.

I didn't mean it to come across that way roobuck. I just meant top class horses can have a bad season and come back, and that's what I hope Hf will do.

To my mind there is only one definition of great. Hurricane Fly isn't that.

Yeah fair enough CCM, good luck. He's not for me but his chance is obvious

I can see that ronsk, fair enough. I appreciate why its come across the wrong way. I just meant great rather than all time great.

Good luck to you too roobuck.

I am of the belief that Hurricane Fly WON'T be winning this years champ hdl simply on the basis that i can't believe that a horse can regain a championship race. Have to ask the question, has it ever been done before I am not sure but am sure there is a few statisticians on here that can work that one out for us all!

Kauto Star obviously did it, but at the time that was billed as a very rare event indeed, and the only time it had been done in the blue riband event.

What about the other three championship races Has it ever been achieved

I so however have the FLY on my side at 11/2, but am not very hopeful and i think am looking at place money at best!

GRANDOUET7/1, DARLAN9/2, poss' GRUMETI25/155on ere AND ZARKANDER7/1, DEFO ROCK ON RUBY10/1(jury is out on last time out though horrible ground and seasonal debut may well be excuses imo) and just a small feeling that on better ground given the likely very strong pace CINDERS AND ASHES20/1 and my main possibles for this race and whom i may well have on my side come March 12th antepost or otherwise at under 100% book win and place in bets. I thought same about Countrywide Flame, but he will be 5, they can't win lol!

Anyways, there are my thoughts on this race at this stage of the season, as one forumite has already stated, antepost at this stage of the season what with the weather and ground conditions we are experiencing at the moment is fraught with danger and i am in full agreement!

- Laughable price at moment
- crazy price at moment and have not as yet backed, hoping for same or better later on
- had small bet, hear kingwell maybe on agenda, could shorten up for a nice trade later on
- Backed accordingly, could prove to be a big price come March 12th!
- Big price, backed accordingly, though unsure due to stats but hope he does it for his many fans
- Aint decided if am a backer at 10/1 as yet

Oh, please forget that DEFO is before ROCK ON RUBY forgot to take that off was put on error

need a few more smileys to get your point fully across imo

Got a bit carried away haha, didn't realize that would make it almost unreadable but hey ho we all make mistakes lol!

Only jesting mate.

moscow flyer regained the queen mother.

Don't look for the exceptions to the rule to justify something IMO. In general, the rule will hold up.

The Fly is a great horse but wouldn't be fancying him in what is generally a race for those on the upgrade.

I'm with you Glossy, but with one big fear.
I've done the younger ones such as Darlan, Zarkander and Grandouet at fancy prices [now] in my ante-post book and think Fly's day has been.
The only niggle I have is that a lot of the Mullins horses were just not right at the Festival last season.
Of course, Quevega won, and Sir des Champs won a pretty weak Jewson, but loads of his ran poorly and could it be Fly was one of those under the weathr...?
I hope not because, if he wins in March, I'll be cooked, but it is niggling me...

I cannot see how anyone can say the Flys days have gone He wasnt right all year but is back to his best now ,. Sorry everyone but for  me its that simple , It will be soft this March of this i'm pretty sure and the Fly will be about 7/4 Fav for the race and is a cracking price at the mo because Darlan price is a complete  joke and even N H thinks thats funny -Good night

What I find strange is that last year when not at his best HF went off odds on. This year despite looking much better he is still available generally at 4/1. On the surface this seems like a good bet but I think it will be very difficult to regain the crown. There's no doubt that he has the best form by some way so why isn't he odds on again. If he wins then fair enough I've looked a gift horse in the mouth, but I just don't fancy him to do it.

People opposed Kauto Star in 2009 because no horse had ever regained their crown after losing it.

Kauto looked below form in 2008 when he lost. Fly looked the same too, as Ruby said he was flat.

The simple fact is Fly has only lost 2 races over hurdles, the first was when he got injured and missed 5 months. The 2nd was the Champion Hurdle.

Horses like Kauto and Fly look like superstars and it's a superstar who regains the crown.

resner we didnt know he wasn't at his best though did we - in fairness he hosed up in the irish champion

Yeah but a strong case can be made for him improving with racing. Just look back at the season he won. Each race he ran better.

Not to mention what was so wrong wth him that he miss 3 intended runs before January last season. But then the Champion Hurdle and Punchestown he looked flat.

This season we'll hopefully get to see him look back to the form of his 2011 win where he's never missed an intended race and has had impressive wins under his belt too.

Pick a side if you want, everyone has to but you can't argue with the case made there. Not to mention there's only 1 horse he'll face who has beaten him before.

The Darlan form is all last seasons novices and juveniles beating eachother. Zero form with last seasons Champion Hurdle. We all thought the Supreme and Triumph were poor renewals. There is no reason not to think they still are. Beating a handicapper in Raya Star a few lenghts isn't going to make the wise people change their minds is it. Darlan 4/1 is as stupid as the Zaynar nonsense from  few years back.

tbh I think Binocular at 33/1 is a stupid price, especially given how both AP and Ruby had their horses too far back and could never get to the fron 2 last season. Closer order will be had by both jockeys this year.

CVB I agree completely with he point about his championship season. But the reality is he has faced British hurdlers twice in essence and has a 50% record.

Also agree about the price re Darlan but its interesting that the stable switched Binocular to let him run at Kempton,

For me I still retain the faith in Zarkandar but if it is soft then OW must come into it.

Very simplistic way of looking at Flys record tbh. Only RoR will he face who has ever beaten him.

Anyway about Binocular he wasn't as ready to run as Darlan was so same owner/trainer they made the right call to get Darlan out and hold Binocular back for Irish Champion Hurdle.

I'm a big fan of Zarkander too. Think he'll try to relly make it a stamina test like Celestial Halo did back in 2009.

I have him backed along with Fly. I had Darlan @ 24.0 but layed out of him totally @ 5.0 and will back him again once he becomes a sensible price like 6/1

Yes simplistic but just an alternative way of putting his record into perspective. A lot of his wins have been against average hurdlers for Grade 1 races.

Don't get me wrong he's a very good horse but imo not one that yet deserves the accolade 'superstar'.

CVByrne 30 Dec 12 12:10 
The Darlan form is all last seasons novices and juveniles beating eachother. Zero form with last seasons Champion Hurdle. We all thought the Supreme and Triumph were poor renewals. There is no reason not to think they still are. Beating a handicapper in Raya Star a few lenghts isn't going to make the wise people change their minds is it. Darlan 4/1 is as stupid as the Zaynar nonsense from  few years back.

tbh I think Binocular at 33/1 is a stupid price, especially given how both AP and Ruby had their horses too far back and could never get to the fron 2 last season. Closer order will be had by both jockeys this year.


Great post that CVB, the Binocular point is a very good one especially from a value point of view, I'm a HF fan myself and I think the recent International race at cheltenham bolsters the HF case somewhat.

The suspicion from last years CH was that ruby and mccoy messed it up and let the front two get away and credit wasn't really given to the winner, well in the recent race ROR travelled all over Zark through the race before blowing up and came out of the race with huge credit.

Yes, to a degree ruby messed it up but only with the hindsight that The fly wasn't on his A game that day, along with other mullins horses that week,if he was at his best he would have picked up the winner IMO, even from that position  and I think that time will tell us (and the international hints at it)that he was trying to chase down a good winner of the CH.

I'd imagine Ruby will ride Hurricane Fly more prominently, but he still has to face a line up he didn't beat last season, aswell as a couple of new faces and a Zarkandar that is apparently better this season. Yesterday probably wasn't much better a performance than his race in January last year, but i can understand why people think he can win it in March. I'm sticking with Cinders and Ashes(stop laughing). I think if he gets good ground and a truely run race, he could be there picking it up when swinging off the turn. The substance of my bet may be decaying after every race he has had this year, but i'm not deserting Donalds supreme winner just yet. It's a bloody lot to ask for, and luck had disascociated itself from me this season.

JP McManus was on RTE the other day at Leopardstown and when they talked about Darlan he brought up Binocular saying Nicky thinks he's really got a chance and he's definately not out of it. The way he talked about Binocular has me thinking he is a right good ew shout given with Overturn out of it he was 3rd last year ahead of Zark. AP and Ruby were too far back. I think whoever rides Binocular will keep him pretty handy and try kick off the bend.

There is no form between last years Supreme/Triumph with this season group. So if they turn out to be below par then we have a repeat of last years race with Grandouet in for Overturn and then 33/1 may look huge e/w price tbh.

Wait there is a form line between last seasons Supreme and last seasons Champion hurdle. Zarkander giving 17lbs and a beating to Prospect Wells.

That is the only formline.

Most of the horses which HF has beaten in Ireland have not been great. However if these grade 1s are so poor why dont all these so-called good English horses run in them. HF will go off clear favourite at about 5/2 come March. 9/2 a good price imo. I like a lot about Darlan but he beat a handicapper and a novice.

Apart from Simonsig  I reckon this years (2012) supreme and neptune were poor fields.

Nice to see im not the only one that aint forgotten Binocular.

Arklearkle, they all came over once for Punchestown and Fly thumped them into oblivion. Nobody want's to waste their time again.

Binocular will run aganst Fly in Irish Champ and will be well beaten like he always is on his first start. Dunno if to back him now at 33/1 or wait till after that race to back him.

back him as soon as hes entered up mate.

Have been thinking that very same thing myself CVByrne, but have come to conclusion, have half stake on now at 33s, as you never do no everyone knows that Binocular needs his first run of the season (inc the books) but he still just may run with credit So am having half on now at 33s, i already have the fly on my side at 11/2, then if someone does push him out, wait for post race news and then maybe have other half on if the news is ok ish

Then if for any reason he don't run at all this season, only half the damage

have him on here at 37 and 35 from start of season,was starting to get a tad concerned so nice to see him getting mentioned by his connections.

Ah the return of the bino fan club,warm beer,sound of leather on willow and the bino fan boys doing their thing............let it go men let it go,yesterdays horse very good on its day but those days are long gone Im afraid.

More than just being mentioned bud, JP seemed very positive about him. Think the plan was always to get one prep run and then go to Cheltenham with a fresher horse than previous years. He's had a nice break since the Champion Hurdle.

Can't see him winning but he landed my ew w/o HF last season. I think he's big e/w value again this.

More than just being mentioned bud, JP seemed very positive about him. Think the plan was always to get one prep run and then go to Cheltenham with a fresher horse than previous years. He's had a nice break since the Champion Hurdle.

Can't see him winning but he landed my ew w/o HF last season. I think he's big e/w value again this.

I have got to agree that Darlan at 4/1 is absolute nonsense. We don't even know if last seasons supreme was any good yet. For me I don't think Cinders and Ashes is a world beater and Countrywide flame has been shown to be a 150 horse at best. To me the form shown by the older horses is much stronger, how Darlan can be half the price of ROR who will almost certaintly be a better horse come march is beyond me.

I really feel that last years Champion form is rock solid and that it will take a tremendous effort for something else to win the race that didn't turn up in 2012.

I am on HF at 6s, and took 9/2 with coral's. Not only I think its a cracking price but I do like to trade a bit back and the momentum will continue to build on the fly regardless of what anything else does.

AP has ridden Binocular for his last 18 races.

If he decides to ride Darlan, it makes sense for a different jockey to ride Binocular in his prep run, rather than having a brand new one in the Chmapion Hurdle.

Even though one is 4/1 and the other is 33/1, I think it will be a tough decision for AP.

Fallen Angel 30 Dec 12 15:16 Joined: 06 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 1,019 | Blogger: Fallen Angel's blog
I have got to agree that Darlan at 4/1 is absolute nonsense. We don't even know if last seasons supreme was any good yet.

Exactly, the only form line is Prospect Wells being beaten by Zarkandar in receipt of 17lbs. That's not the best advert of the Supreme form is it.

I remember saying similar things as regards Menorah. He won the Greatwood, then beat Sil Conti and novice Cue Card in the international hurdle. Neither horse was even Champion hurdle bound and their actual ability was totally unknown.

Same things can be said of Darlan here. He will drift to 7.0 at least at some point between now and then. When Fly beats Binocular in Irish Champ in 4 weeks he'll contract further and Darlan will have to be pushed out again

Can't get any of the 33s available Binoc' and stans are only 20s on the shops

How come they are shorter in the shops? 33/1 according to my internet screen. Looking at last year's race and my belief that the newbies won't really get into the picture I agree that its quite a big price on Bino. Excellent record at Cheltenham and a nice saver in case of a raft of injuries. In the last few years at least two of the big guns have exited before the big day.

I have no idea why they are. Pretty puzzled. But they are!

gut feeling right now is HF or Zark,but i do think ROR Is a nice price and he wont be far away,hes tailor made for a CHurdle as already shown,jumps travels well and stays very well.
They would be my 3 against the field with Bino the dark horse that could on his day shake them up.
Have bino and ROR backed,looks like one of the other 2 on the day.

But i did relieve them of some 10/1 ROCK ON RUBY

@Seathestars NO1, not great business from them. As sponsors they should be nearly top price everything. Are you restricted online? The price element is pretty tasty considering there are a number of horses in the market who will likely have other targets. Oscar Whiskey, Peddlers may have other targets, Grumeti we haven't seen yet. I can see 7 horses plus Bino as CH certainties should they make it. If one or two of those drop out its a big price.

Bino wont be allowed to go off at 33s if he lines up. I think he went from 10s to 4s in week leading up to cheltenham last year great traDE

sorry,forgot about the soft ground factor,that brings in Oscar,think he would win the race if it were heavy.

Agree fallen, am not restricted online but prefer my antepost to be cash bets. I may well take 33s online yet however i may well have a little bit on at 37s on here too and look at the trade later on as cant see him winning it as per the rule, horses do not often regain championship races. But a trade at 37 back, say 10 - 11 lay would look very nice wouldn't it

CV BYRNE-missed RTE's coverage this week,what did JP say about Darlan??
He obviously has the potential to be anything and was very impressive at Aintree last year but there is a sharp contrast with a sprint at Kempton and the champion at festival .

BINO ENTEREED IN A VOVICE CHAE NEXT THURSDAY

Only joking nail the 33s and trade off

indeed it would,he runs,hes shorter.

I've just watched last year's CH again and I am of the opinion that last year's race was a top class affair. There were a couple of leaps where HF didn't wing them like he did yesterday and I still feel that Ruby walsh should have rode slightly closer to the pace. Both him and Bino were too far back and made up as much ground as they could considering the ground. The horse that scares the life out of me is Zarkandar, he made up about 10L coming up the hill and think in soft and a bit older he is a monster player.

The only concern with the form of last year would be the proximity of Overturn who finished way behind HF in 2011. It may have been that the faster surface saw him to much greater effect as all his big wins have come on Good or Good to firm ground. I am hoping that all the supreme horses stay in because there will be plenty of horses that you can take them on with in the place market come March.

Had thought about throwing £20 away tbh and speculating on a few of them at 100+ in the market, if any of them were to even grace us with a potential reappearance their prices would tumble!

BINOC
GRUMETI
STEPS TO FREEDOM
GALILEOS CHOICE
SPIRIT SON

Dunno of any others. What would you put up as potentially surprising us with an appearance in the champion hdl?

pearl swan was the one i was looking out for.

Spirit soon we may never know how good he could have been, that form of his novice campaign just continues to get stronger and stronger (beat the future champion hurdler by 16L as a novice and the paddypower chase winner only beat him 2L with a certain sprinter scare behind in 3rd) . Has there been any news?

spirit son*

I have no idea, above is JUST GUESS WORK !

spirit son career is sadly looking to be over

Arklearkle, they all came over once for Punchestown and Fly thumped them into oblivion. Nobody want's to waste their time again.

Sorry which race was this?

The race he's alluding to was the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, the year he won the Cheltenham one, when Menorah and Binocular (both still highly rated at the time) came over and HF trounced them on the bridle.

@howdi, a real shame if so.

Yes he nearly died. Had a rare spinal condition I think and couldn't get up. Everything was done to keep him alive and pleased to say he's walking again and looks great in a few photos I saw. I don't think you will see him race again though very sad.

such a shame for connections as they really did have a horse of a lifetime but at least he is okay. Thanks for the update

Thanks for the update MM.

It would be nice if trainers could update every now and then on the condition of their injured horses.

I think Bino is a good price at 33's ew, but I'm going to wait and see if he faces the Fly before hand.  I can see the Fly beating him, so I can't see his price getting any shorter.

And DARLAN i fear should not be snubbed lightly! That performance the other day showing he can come off a slow pace on boggy ground was top class as he also already has shown he can come off a strong pace on good ish ground in that race he tipped up in at Newbury (totesport) and the supreme last season!
Have backed at 9/2, happy with that price and think at this stage he defo sets a good standard! Ok, the fly been there and done it, and will be very hard to beat if in the same form as the year in which he won it!

Darlan has never been in a fast run race. That Betfair Hurdle at Newbury they went slow. The Supreme was also slow, while his Christmas Hurdle win was a farce. Darlan also doesn't hurdle very well. He'll be a quality chaser, just not a top class hurdler.

2nd run will help me with Darlan

Will it though? He'll run at 1/5 in a race up at Kelso or something.

yeh,i have a feeling we wont find anything out till the CH.
Hes currently same price as HF,i know which one i would rather be on out of those 2,and it aint Darlan.

anything else out i meant to say

I dunno, just a niggling feeling the fly wont be winning the CH but Darlan might as the fly has won and lost a CH, Darlan has never run in one before and so just on that (ludicrous if you want) reasoning am happier with my 9/2 Darlan than i am my 11/2 the fly as not very often that a horse regains a championship race is it Of all the horses taking part in a championship race, unless it is the reigning champ, much rather be siding with an up and coming potential star than one thats been there, done it, then lost it again no matter what excuses there may well be!

Kauto Star's 2nd gold cup was one amazing race though

I've a strongly held belief that Scopey Chaser types lack the hurdling fluidity and speed to win the Champion Hurdle. Darlan is a lovely horse, but he's a chaser and will go into the Champion Hurdle without ever having tested himself against any top quality 2 mile hurdler like the other 4 at the head of the betting.

each tom their own STS,after all Darlan may prove to be the best bet out the 2,but right now their aint anything ive seen of him that puts him in the same class as HF at his best,which from what i saw the other day is pretty likely imo.

I am strongly looking to side with GRANDOUET for the CH tbh chaps and think possibly he may well carry my 'jackpot' bet for the race though am not backing him yet at his current odds of just 7/1. As you all no i never just let a race like this run with one or two bets lol i like to stake carefully and build a book on what i believe are the most likely winners.
Though at this stage and before they have run again, ZARKANDER, CINDERS, and possibly ROR may replace him.
My method for this is to work out what the least return will be if i get winner only, then stake a win only bet on said horse to that amount. If least amount is winner i dont lose, just make money if i get any places, if jackpot wins

I usually back 3 or 4. 1 or 2 main bets and then cover on 1 or 2 dangers.

Fly and Zark are my main bets. Grandouet is my main danger horse then Darlan. I had backed Darlan @ 24.0 but layed out of the bet @ 5.0. If he goes back to a sensible price at some point I'll reinvest in him. Otherwise I'm happy to let him run unbacked at 4/1 or lower.

Grandouet backed @ 9.0 on here the other day. So have 3 now. The main 3 in my book.

The only horse I have backed in the race is HF not because I don't think there are big dangers to him but because I think the Champion make up is particularly weather dependent. On really soft or heavy I would have to be with one of the stayers in particular if he was running OW would be of interest. If the ground is good to soft or better than ROR has to come into it. He was running a nice race at Cheltenham in the international before tiring between the 2nd last and last on better ground in the spring he would be a big danger.

That being said anything worse than good ground and HF will take all the beating, potentially softer the better. The only way we will learn anything new about Darlan is if he takes on an older horse between now and Cheltenham Festival and Henderson will ensure that doesn't happen. Anything else and he will be beating the same horses that turned up in the Supreme or the Triumph. 

He may well get shorter in the betting but it won't be because his form has got stronger.

Was last seasons supreme really that slow though? Not a times man at all but they always go a good clip in that and i've always though (to my eye anyways) it was fairly lickety spit

Was over 6 seconds slower than Champion Hurdle which is quite a lot slower. Usually there is only 1 or 2 seconds difference given Novices carry less weight

Currently watching it now, paused it, reason being my cinders and ashes bet for CH this year at 20s. If last seasons supreme was that slow, which early on it defo wasnt, then that kinda puts paid to my opinion that C&A relished coming off a strong pace when winning that supreme. Another thing was, the moment where i have paused it, was when he completely destroyed the 4th hurdle down the back straight when sitting in about 8th or 9th place

Was widely considered to be no stars from either Supreme or Triumph last season. Bunch finish in Supreme and a slow run race.

Darlan has improved from then though. But wasn't a good renewal. No horse has done anything bar beat other horses from those races this season.

The Champion Hurdle was muc much quicker and only for line between two races this season is Prospect Wells getting 17lbs and still being beaten by Zarkandar.

True, suppose you can look at it like that lol. Really like Zarkander!

Just noticed there is an actual champion hurdle thread this year, thought this was it lol. Darn it lol

Though it is possible to look at it this way, they went such a furious gallop from the 2nd hurdle to the 3rd last, the finish was a lot slower than normal? Without knowing the times, and i have already stated i am not a times man, i wouldn't know this for sure though.

6 seconds is a big amount of time. Far too much to say that they went to quick etc..

There's just no form lines between last years novices and last years champion bar Prospect Well being over 17lbs inferior to Zarkandar.

We can't really know how good Darlan is at all. But Raya Star being 4.5l back in 2nd is hardly a big form boost. He's a total Handicapper beaten 8l by Oscar Whiskey on the bridle in his run before.

Got a theory with darlan, there is a perception that last years novices weren't a great bunch but darlans performance at kempton went some way to apparently putting one on the board for last years novices, I think that he is the best of them so why then couldn't he have shown that in the supreme itself.

Are we to believe that on the basis of that one run at kempton he has indeed improved, a race that saw a handicapper , admirable as he may be chase him home in second, with other novices one in particular that was his better last march trailing behind.

Could it be in fact that he was able to show himself the best at kempton because it was his liking for the type of track that enabled him to show it, so far in his career he has raced and won on predominantly flat tracks and the one time he had previously run at cheltenham he scrambled home with mccoy proclaiming how he wins nothing on that performance.

He ran well of course in the supreme but it has to be guaged in relation to the opposition and it could be that he was able to finish as close to the front in that race because he is the best of an ordinary bunch and he was able to get as close as he did even though the track could have been hindering him.

I don't believe he will be seen in a particularly  good light when he finally takes on the older brigade on the track, horses that will relish the place better than him. Watching the supreme again, he never travelled well for much of the race and missed out a good few hurdles, mccoy was at him for most of the time.

I think there are two likely explanations with this horse. Your assessment could be the right one.

The other one is that like Sprinter Sacre did between his novice hurdle campaign and his novice chase campaign an extra summer caused him to strengthen up considerably. Prior to his Kempton run both McGrath and Francome commented that he was the one horse out of the race you would think would make a chaser. My view is that this type often does benefit from that extra summer between novice company and taking on open age hurdlers or going chasing.

A halfway house between those two views is that he has strengthened up past his novice contemporaries but that last years novices weren't a vintage crop. Which leaves the question in the air of whether his improvement is enough to bridge the gap in class?

Mccoy will ride Binocular imo. The way he spoke after the race made you think Darlan is nothing special.

Duffy the horses Darlan beat at Kempton were last years novices/juveniles and a handicapper in Raya star. So there is no evidence that him beating them is "putting one on the board for last years novices". He only beat last years novices. He has zero form with the other top 4 in the Champion Hurdle betting.

CVB

I said apparently putting one on the board for last years novices...but in reality, he wasn't...I'm trying to make a point against darlan, not for him.

I obviously haven't made it clear, but he could beat that moderate bunch because it was on a flatter track, but won't be able to repeat that against the better older brigade at cheltenham, because he's just the best of a moderate bunch and I don't think cheltenham is his track...he did not enjoy one bit his journey through the race at the festival last year.....I thought I said this pretty clear above though.

Generally though darlan isn't a good hurdler, he bungles several and has to be ridden away from them, I've also noticed that through the first part of a lot of his races he is lazy with the jockey having to keep him at it, mccoy rarely looks relaxed on him.

Sorry Duffy, was lazy on my part I didn't read your full post. Darlan just looks a no bet horse in the race no matter what unless he drifts to 7/1 or above.

He's never been tested in a fast run race and he doesn't hurdle well. Also if it's slow run Grandouet and Fly have better acceleration and will scoot past.

@CVbyrne, in all honesty I am hoping Darlan gets punted out of sight in the next two months because it will make a short price place lay if all the older horses make it there. I didn't like Raya star being anywhere near Darlan as he was beaten 1 1/2 receiving 8 pounds from Zarkandar in a year when it is generally accepted that Zarkandar was not at his best. I would point out that Raya Star was also hammered 10L by ROR receiving 13 pounds (although this was on completely different ground)