Cheltenham Festival
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I'd kind of written off Hurricane Fly
I'd kind of written off Hurricane Fly
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Was widely considered to be no stars from either Supreme or Triumph last season. Bunch finish in Supreme and a slow run race.
Darlan has improved from then though. But wasn't a good renewal. No horse has done anything bar beat other horses from those races this season. The Champion Hurdle was muc much quicker and only for line between two races this season is Prospect Wells getting 17lbs and still being beaten by Zarkandar. |
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True, suppose you can look at it like that lol. Really like Zarkander!
Just noticed there is an actual champion hurdle thread this year, thought this was it lol. Darn it lol |
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Though it is possible to look at it this way, they went such a furious gallop from the 2nd hurdle to the 3rd last, the finish was a lot slower than normal? Without knowing the times, and i have already stated i am not a times man, i wouldn't know this for sure though.
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6 seconds is a big amount of time. Far too much to say that they went to quick etc..
There's just no form lines between last years novices and last years champion bar Prospect Well being over 17lbs inferior to Zarkandar. We can't really know how good Darlan is at all. But Raya Star being 4.5l back in 2nd is hardly a big form boost. He's a total Handicapper beaten 8l by Oscar Whiskey on the bridle in his run before. |
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Got a theory with darlan, there is a perception that last years novices weren't a great bunch but darlans performance at kempton went some way to apparently putting one on the board for last years novices, I think that he is the best of them so why then couldn't he have shown that in the supreme itself.
Are we to believe that on the basis of that one run at kempton he has indeed improved, a race that saw a handicapper , admirable as he may be chase him home in second, with other novices one in particular that was his better last march trailing behind. Could it be in fact that he was able to show himself the best at kempton because it was his liking for the type of track that enabled him to show it, so far in his career he has raced and won on predominantly flat tracks and the one time he had previously run at cheltenham he scrambled home with mccoy proclaiming how he wins nothing on that performance. He ran well of course in the supreme but it has to be guaged in relation to the opposition and it could be that he was able to finish as close to the front in that race because he is the best of an ordinary bunch and he was able to get as close as he did even though the track could have been hindering him. I don't believe he will be seen in a particularly good light when he finally takes on the older brigade on the track, horses that will relish the place better than him. Watching the supreme again, he never travelled well for much of the race and missed out a good few hurdles, mccoy was at him for most of the time. |
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I think there are two likely explanations with this horse. Your assessment could be the right one.
The other one is that like Sprinter Sacre did between his novice hurdle campaign and his novice chase campaign an extra summer caused him to strengthen up considerably. Prior to his Kempton run both McGrath and Francome commented that he was the one horse out of the race you would think would make a chaser. My view is that this type often does benefit from that extra summer between novice company and taking on open age hurdlers or going chasing. A halfway house between those two views is that he has strengthened up past his novice contemporaries but that last years novices weren't a vintage crop. Which leaves the question in the air of whether his improvement is enough to bridge the gap in class? |
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Mccoy will ride Binocular imo. The way he spoke after the race made you think Darlan is nothing special.
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Duffy the horses Darlan beat at Kempton were last years novices/juveniles and a handicapper in Raya star. So there is no evidence that him beating them is "putting one on the board for last years novices". He only beat last years novices. He has zero form with the other top 4 in the Champion Hurdle betting.
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CVB
I said apparently putting one on the board for last years novices...but in reality, he wasn't...I'm trying to make a point against darlan, not for him. I obviously haven't made it clear, but he could beat that moderate bunch because it was on a flatter track, but won't be able to repeat that against the better older brigade at cheltenham, because he's just the best of a moderate bunch and I don't think cheltenham is his track...he did not enjoy one bit his journey through the race at the festival last year.....I thought I said this pretty clear above though.  |
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Generally though darlan isn't a good hurdler, he bungles several and has to be ridden away from them, I've also noticed that through the first part of a lot of his races he is lazy with the jockey having to keep him at it, mccoy rarely looks relaxed on him.
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Sorry Duffy, was lazy on my part I didn't read your full post. Darlan just looks a no bet horse in the race no matter what unless he drifts to 7/1 or above.
He's never been tested in a fast run race and he doesn't hurdle well. Also if it's slow run Grandouet and Fly have better acceleration and will scoot past. |
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@CVbyrne, in all honesty I am hoping Darlan gets punted out of sight in the next two months because it will make a short price place lay if all the older horses make it there. I didn't like Raya star being anywhere near Darlan as he was beaten 1 1/2 receiving 8 pounds from Zarkandar in a year when it is generally accepted that Zarkandar was not at his best. I would point out that Raya Star was also hammered 10L by ROR receiving 13 pounds (although this was on completely different ground)
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