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Cheltenham Festival
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These 199 comments are related to the topic:
Gold Cup thoughts now Christmas has passed
Gold Cup thoughts now Christmas has passed
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Replies: 199
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It's not just not running in KG though.is it? SC actually swerved festival last year and has no chase course form.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him. |
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anyone know what the stats are for taking an unbeaten record for the season into the race?
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roo, the reason behind swerving the festival was more the fact he wasn't right finishing in behind invictus, so they decided they would give him an extra month to recover then take him to aintree a fresh horse.
I can understand why people are against him because of his lack of racing at Cheltenham. But you have to look at why he didn't go, he didn't go to Cheltenham on his first season over here because they thought 2 miles in a champion hurdle would be to short for him and they didn't want to bottom him in a world hurdle, they put him away as they always considered him a top chaser in the making. Obviously last festival as i mentioned above. He has ran at the course and finished a respected 3rd behind menorah and cuecard giving both of them weight, it was in affect a sprint to the line that day which would never of suited him. Personally I wouldn't be that concerned about the undulations horses know how to go up and down, he does it on Nicholls gallops day in day out. I think its more important he's had lots of experience running left handed personally. |
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Brooksie, I have no axe to grind with SC at all. I was simply explaining from a stats point of view it wasn't just missing the KG.
Personally I wouldn't back him until I'd seen Cheltenham form but its looking increasingly likely that I won't bet on the race as I'm struggling to see any value. I sort of accept your points but still surprised that a horse of his standard hasn't pitched up to bigger Cheltenham races I can see both sides of the argument. |
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Probably better waiting until the day now to back one then, Most of the value has gone now and the prices wont differ much on the day. Unless something drastic happens in one of the few remaining trials.
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Surely the near 15/8 on betfair place market it great value about LONG RUN, the horse has never been out the first 3 is a proven stayer, oh yeah and good enough to beat those two old rogues Denman and Kauto Star.....2 years ago maybe but streets better form than anything else in this field!!!!!
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15/8 reflects the fact that it's an ante-post bet robbo. You might not 15/8 on the day if he's a definite runner.
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But unless i'm missing the point of this whole thread which says thoughts on the gold cup at this stage!!!! I am giving my thought as at now, and i can get 15/8 on betfair place market right now pete....
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Best hope its soft then robbo,dont see him placing on decent ground personally.
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Of course you're right Robbo. I prefer not to bet 'em at short prices when there's still a couple
of months to go. There's many a slip twixt cup and lip, so they say. |
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He won the race on good ground against 2 proper stayers but one was quick enough to win the sandown 2 mile race that i cant remember the bloody name of twice. You can pick wholes in the form of everything in the race if you look hard enough after all LR cant jump but has never fell! got a bad jockey but hes been good enough to win 2 king georges a gold cup finish 2nd in a grand national along with at least 2 foxhunter wins.
I agree with you about short prices but this horse has placed every time its ran so for me its as good a value bet as trying to find the winner, but as you say pete just like people tipping up a wnner i might not get a run for my money thats the danger of playing in any anti post market. |
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The length of this thread shows what a fascinating race it's gonna be this year. The 2 I can't have are LR and TB. LR's jumping is getting worse, not better, stats are all wrong, and beating captain Chris a neck is not GC winning form. As for TB, surely they will go too fast on What will be soft at worst, and the sulky old devil will not ba able to pull back all of BW, SDC, LR and SC.
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For LR in last bit, should be FL!
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Have you ever seen a race LR has not missed a fence or 2? The horse just seems to be able to get from one side to the other and never look like falling, Captain chris form not sure look at his record going right handed, stacks up ok if not earth shattering. This is a horse thats been there and done it.... Not all these second season chasers are stars and some wont even run
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Only one question for me. Why is Bobs Worth 3-1 when surely he should be shorter? Absolutely no question marks against him unless it comes up heavy which is probably a 10-1 chance. He's twice outstayed First Lieutenant and the extra distance will suit him. He's a dual Festival winner. He holds everything bar Silviniaco Conti at the top of the market on RSA/Hennessy/Lexus form and is very progressive. His jumping is very clean and neat and he just seems to arrive at the second last going very well then find plenty for pressure. 3-1 NRNB with Tote Credit will be taken for 5pts this morning.
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If you feel that strongly,why are you going on about it??
Would keep it quiet if i were you. Hes 3/1,cos hes had 1 run out of novice company,and their are some good horses in opposition. |
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Agreed budd.Did these people see how he jumped in the Feltham behind Grand cru and SC. Better ground he jumps well on but not too sure if its sticky, just like most of the others 3-1 is a far price 7/4 would be madness.
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3/1 isn't a good price, not 2 months before the race.
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can see him being that price on the day,at least.
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I have backed him, took 3-1 NRNB so it's like taking on the morning of the race on credit but thanks for the advice anyway.
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Don't know what the Fltham or Reynoldstown form has to do with his chance here. His last 2 runs show him to be a few lbs ahead of anything in the field.
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couldn't breathe in the feltham, ran like he had a bag over his head geraghty said, that's why he had an op after.
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When was the last time a flat bred won the RSA ?
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* wrong thread *
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Booster,
I dont think his last run puts him a few lbs ahead of TBay. |
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Depends if you think he had something in hand and is progressive which I do. Tidal Bay's last run with First Lieutenant puts Bobs Worth even further ahead and he'll only run in the Gold Cup on soft ground according to his owner so not a very persuasive alternative really.
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I'd agree that granted normal progression, BW is still slightly ahead of TB
However must not forget the Lexus was 3 miles and the extra 2F would be really important to TB and bring him closer. |
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never said it was a peruasive alternative,have to know the Ground for that,which incidentally none of us know.
Just questioning the few lbs superior,which strictly on the form book is wrong. Indeed Roo,the extra distance would indeed be good for TB,and is important. Anyone dismissing him will look foolish if ground is soft. |
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how much rain has Cheltenham had in the last two weeks? had nothing in the Midlands since Christmas.
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can we replace the water table with the snow table now please?
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Not much mate,but now weve got all sorts happening this weekend and next week.
Rain turning to snow,fecking great!! |
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I'm sure I read the other day that its currently soft (good to soft in places) for trials day.
That's not bad considering it was unraceable and waterlogged 11 days ago. No matter how bad the weather is, if we get two weeks of dry weather (long shot I know) before the festival, then it will be the usual good to soft imo on the Tuesday. No turftrax map availalbe atm unfortunately. |
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Re: TB, I got the distinct impression going through the wylie quote the other day that he wasn't particularly bothered about the ground coming right to allow his horse to run in the GC.
"If the ground is good or faster then he won't run in the Gold Cup as we've tried it before and they go too fast for him, but if it was very soft we'd probably give it a go." |
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Yep,i cant see him running in the GC unless its as he says-very soft.That scenario gives him a major chance.
Think they fancy their chances in the WH. |
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As far as TB goes, you should read PFN's update on here about him. 'Really fancy him for the Grand National'. Now a cynic might say that this is his only chance of denying Hendo the trainer's championship but realistically, he will have a less arduous race in the GC than the WH, whatever the ground.
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Re the Silviniaco Conti issue earlier in the thread about him missing the King George is a big negative, I'd actually have it as a huge positive.
He's never ran on heavy and is still a very young horse. In hindsight I'm sure half of the owners wished they hadn't run in that race, and I certainly don't get any pleasure watching horses being dragged over the line and getting pulled up. Big positive that they'll get better ground in the Denman Chase, which hopefully won't leave a mark on him, like the King George may have done to a few, but of course we won't know that until their next race. FWIW, I haven't backed him, but if Flemenstar drops out then I'll back him, and will have him and SDC vs the field. |
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As far as TB goes, you should read PFN's update on here about him. 'Really fancy him for the Grand National'. Now a cynic might say that this is his only chance of denying Hendo the trainer's championship but realistically, he will have a less arduous race in the GC than the WH, whatever the ground.
Surprised you lads (and lassies) haven't jumped down my throat here....I did of course mean the complete opposite. Jumping fences is much tougher than hurdles, not least becasue there is more of them in a race of the same distance! |
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I spotted that, but didn't want to say something and risk the thousands of foot in mouths I post to come back to haunt me
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Very gracious duffy....I put it down to being an old fack!
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IT certainly looks PFN's only chance.
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