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One thing I was interested in was the rain is now far more intense and plentiful when it comes.
Forgetting the Festival as such, all AP bets will be more difficult unless we get a prolonged dry, warm spell as any cloud burst close to a race may have a significant impact on the ground |
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If it stays like this at least we can take the form into the festival. How many handicaps at Cheltenham are going to be won by 50/1 shots with lots of 0000's by there name if the ground dries up loads.
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I am with you bigtime Brooksielad on Conti. Will relish the trip, has great course form, is impervious to ground conditions, trained by a master and ridden by a genius.
Bobs Worth only danger - a grinder who only does enough and has yet to be stretched to his full potential. |
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only danger?
dont think so somehow |
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A lot of Silviniaco Conti's form is in small fields. That would be a worry. He definitely won't have the same comfort trying to boss the Gold Cup field. Also despite impressive wins in the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase, trainer's concerns before those races regarding Cheltenham should not be forgotten. Having said that, I like him.
First Lieutenant is the best of the Irish raiders in my opinion. Ran a brilliant race on soft ground in the Lexus and is surely going to improve with faster conditions. I also like the way he came the Neptune (1st) / RSA (2nd) route as opposed to Sir Des Champs who won the Martin Pipe followed by the Jewson. Traditionally we know which two are the stronger races. Despite this, it's hard to get away from Bobs Worth who's a dual Festival winner and has no doubts that I can see. Jumps well, travels well, stays well and is a reliable and consistent performer. No doubts. Unlike all of his opponents. At this moment, I would say Bobs Worth is a very strong favourite. I would be as confident about his chances as one can be over two months out from the biggest race in the season. A lot can happen but Bobs Worth a very worthy favourite for the time being. |
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Great points SoYouThink.
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Agree SoYouThink. I suspect they are going to Gold Cup fresh with Sil Conti so as if he doesn't act at the track e'll still be fresh enough to go to Aintree a track he loves.
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You have a valid point about Conti in small fields, although he did get bumped around in the charlie hall, Wayward Prince closed a door in Conti's face and the horse responded ok to being bumped about. I do have every confidence in Ruby putting Conti in the right position early on and getting him into a an early rhythm.
The Cheltenham form I'm not to worried about though, I just get the feeling Nicholls wanted to keep him safe through his novice campaign, he said early on he didn't want to ruin his chances early on in his career. I always thought Conti was going to a good chaser, I remember watching his grade 2 win over hurdles at Ascot and there was a beautiful angle of him jumping his hurdles down the back. The way he floated over them was just so effortless and his shape was incredible. If you haven't watched, it's worth studying. Obviously hurdles and fences are totally different but none the less he's just so natural and were now starting to see it over fences. I really do think he could be a bit special. |
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A good few people fancy First Lieutenant for the Gold Cup,
and say he's and out and out stayer,yet he has been beaten in his last 8 races and is yet to win a race over further than 2m5f.If they like this horse they should watch the way Last Instalment hammered him over 3m last season,a horse which is unbeaten over fences and is 7/9 with plenty of improvement in him.Was well fancied for the RSA,until injury stopped him coming over.If he manages to line up at the festival this year a major player,in any race. Hopefully the Gold Cup. GL ALL |
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Don't quite get where all the confidence behind SC comes from, the charlie hall is a million miles away from gold cup winning form in relation to the opposition and the haydock race was a non event with long runs connections only interested in a work out for their horse and quite happy for SC to have it, yes he may stay and enjoy a gruelling 3 mile 2 furlong contest but I have a gut feeling there will be at least 3 or 4 more that will like it better.
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I get exactly where you are coming from Penzance.
Last Instalment was my biggest AP bet this year, when he was 50/1 e/w straight after last year's festival. However, I've virtually lost all hope on him for this race now. Whatever people say about Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, I would have put Last Instalment as the top Irish Novice staying chaser last year. Ran a quicker time than Synchronised over the same C&D, on the same day as his Lexus win. He comfortably had First Leiutenent held as well. He may go for the Ryanair, but I wouldn't touch him in that. I think he'd be hopelessly outpaced. Despite winning over 2.5, he is a proper stayer to me, and he should go Gold Cup and FL Ryanair. If he even comes over at all, it will be difficult to win any race with such an interupted prep. I was told his injury last year wasn't particularly serious, but would never have backed him if I'd known he'd still be out now. ....You win some, you lose some. |
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now the entries are out for the Gold Cup I am starting the process of using trends to look for value and trading chances:
1. The last 13 Gold Cup winners all ran in one of the King George or The Lexus Chase: I am therefore dismissing everything that did not run in those races. These are: Bobs Worth Siviniaco Conti Quel Esprit Midnight Chase Wayward Prince Burton Port 2.Only one horse that placed in the previous seasons Gold Cup has ever improved their finishing position in the following year and that was Kauto Star: based on this I am dismissing both Long Run and The Giant Bolster who filled the places in 2012. Long Run also attempts to become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup after failing to defend the title. With two major stats to overcome I am happy to dismiss him. 3. The last horse older than 10 to win the Gold Cup was in 1969 so this makes Tidal Bay an extremely unlikely winner and he is dismissed This leaves me with work to do to shorten my list further and I have a list of trends I can use that can still be met by the remaining runners if need be before the big day. Firstly, a chase win over at least 3 miles is extremely desirable and several runners have not managed this yet (First Lieutenant, Captain Chris, Flemenstar, Hunt Ball, Hidden Cyclone, Riverside Theatre) but I am not dismissing them until after they have had their prep runs. Secondly, a win in a Graded chase in the same season is also extremely significant. Grands Crus, Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Riverside Theatre, Hunt Ball all fail this so far but could rectify that before the big day. For instance any of SDC, Flemenstar or First Lieutenant could win a 3 mile Graded chase before the day and tick both boxes at the same time. Finally there are a bunch of other trends that I will apply once all the data is known centering on things like number of chase starts, minimum RPR requirement in a chase (171 required) and so on. For instance, there is a nice little trend about being placed in a hurdle at the Festival which some entrants pass and others don't which I will use later. At this stage I am building my book by laying Long Run, Siviniaco Conti, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster all of whom have very strong trends to overcome. As more info becomes available I will bet for and against those that meet or fail these key trends. I am not laying Bobs Worth at this stage because he fits every trend except the 'King George or Lexus' so I will be happy to have him on my side come the big day. I don't know the plans for Grands Crus but if they could get a Graded Chase win into him before the Gold Cup then he would become very interesting at current prices, having already won at 3 miles, placed in a hurdle at the Festival, ran in the King George, being the right age. Will post more when info becomes clearer |
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grand Crus wont stay 3m2,so you can dismiss him.Same with Riverside Theatre.Flemenstar wont run in the race.
Hunt Ball aint good enough,theres another gone. In fact,Just have SDC,Bobsworth and FL you should have the winner Judo. If its soft add LR and TB. Anyway just my thoughts,but i know you like yer trends mate,so i look forward to your end results. |
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pretty sure The Fellow was placed behind Jodami,
then Beat him the year after,could be wrong,though. |
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Good luck with the trends judorick, i get the feeling you may well have dismissed the winner with your first trend though.
Perhaps running in those races won't turn out to be that important, I just think it's always the logical step for a fancied gold cup horse to run in one of them races. |
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correct Penzance
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Koral prices for Flemenstar's race
Gold Cup evs QMCC 6/4 Ryanair 4/1 I notice they don't quote a price on 'doesn't turn up' - what would that be? 4/6! |
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Obviously not wanting anyone to have a bet.
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thanks for the input, I shall update later but here's what I think:
Bobs Worth could well win. If he were trained by anyone else I would dismiss him and lay him big time but I will keep him onside 'just in case' but having missed the two key races I am dubious. Might be missing a trick by not laying him. FL will have to win the Hennessey for me to consider keeping him onside. If he gets beat there he will be a major lay. Long Run, Tidal Bay and The Giant Bolster are extremely unlikely winners imo and I will be laying them mercilessly along with Sil Conti. Whichever of Flemenstar, SDC or FL wins the Hennessey will be a very strong contender indeed and I will lay the other two (if Flemenstar does not win he will surely miss the CGC) I cannot dismiss Grands Crus yet despite what you say about him not staying. If he wins a Graded chase before the CGC then I will have to have him onside |
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Judo.
re First Lieutenant - is their a trend on previous festival form? this one seems to come good at the right time,last 2 years says that.He could well get beat in the Hennessey and reverse at Chelt,will probably be a close finish again like the Lexus. |
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judo, if you're using entry list on RP site tread carefully.
Burton Port is on there and yet reported in RP this morning that he is OFTS. Bold Sir Brian is missing yet Lucinda quoted as saying they'll go for Gold Cup if he misses Peter Marsh chase. Probably not material to your analysis as neither ran in Lexus nor King George. Have n't checked BHA site so perhaps you're referring to official entry list there? Not sure who RP think they're helping with unofficial entry list, unless it is a list of entries which have been made so far and BP was already entered before injury emerged. |
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The Paul Jones guff from ATR last year was:
POSITIVES Ran in the King George VI Chase Second-season chasers Won or second at the Festival before Front three in the betting Respect front runners NEGATIVES Not officially rated 166+ Failed to win earlier in the season Aged 10+ Less than six chase starts HALF OF THE LAST 20 WINNERS WERE SECOND-SEASON CHASERS FROM CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 50% REPRESENTATION |
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yes I will use the Festival form trends after I have dismissed all the ones that fail the major trends like 3 miles, Graded Chase win same season etc
funny enough getting placed in a hurdle is very positive so this is why I can't dismiss GC yet (even though I dismissed him for the RSA last year) Silviniaco missing the Festival last year is a major negative though specially combined with not running in the two key races, so I can't have him. If I were to guess, then SDC would win the Hennessey under a positive ride and he would meet all the trends and become a very strong favourite in my mind. But I will wait til he does it before betting |
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Interesting stuff Judo. You can dismiss another FL run as Morris has already said he won't run him again until March.
As I recall The Fellow got done twice by short heads before finally, and deservedly, winning. |
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Of course yeast,forgot that about FL.
Hes done that with him last 2 seasons,ran at xmas and then the festival. Hes run well both times so it works. |
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well thanks! if FL does not run again then he is a major negative with two stats to overcome 1) no chase win at 3 miles 2) no chase win in same season (and that really needs to be a Graded chase but not 100% essential). I will look for the quotes but if that is right then I will include FL in my laying plan.
Ah, well the 'placed the season before stat' I used may not go back as far as the Fellow. Nevertheless, I am convinced neither LR nor TGB are going to win and I am happy to have big reds on them. Laying these iteratively for a maximum liability (once the market opens): Long Run Silviniaco Conti The Giant Bolster Tidal Bay Flight Lieutenant (once confirmed he goes straight to the CGC) |
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this flight lieutenant has gone under the radar, surely he don't meet the trends :)
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Gigginstown were also represented in the Lexus by the Mouse Morris-trained First Lieutenant, who ran a blinder to finish second.
"It was the best run he's ever had at this time of year. In the past he has never really run well during the winter, he's really a spring horse," said O'Leary. "This year he seems to be running much better during the winter, so if he can improve in the spring as he has in previous years, we'll be very happy. He'll go straight to Cheltenham now, for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. Mouse likes to run his horses at Christmas and go straight to Cheltenham and they always go there in top condition." |
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I think O'Leary's quote is quite enlightening. Always seems to just get outstayed at 3 miles at the moment, no reason to see him beat BW yet though can see improving past him in time.
Have a feeling we'll see him in Ryanair |
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thanks again!
I will definitely be laying him now |
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The stat about King George and Lexus is interesting - like others, I would n't be overly concerned about Bob's Worth failing that stat (especially as the Hennessy form was so emphatically franked in the Lexus) - must admit,however, I'd start to be a little concerned if he goes to the Festival without another run as has been mooted - hopefully, he'll take in the Argento next week.
Not too many options after that - Denman Chase I s'pose but think they have Long Run earmarked for that again. |
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that's why I said in my post that I would not be laying him but I will if he doesn't have a run
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Yep,its a possibility FL may end up in the Ryannair, would be surprised though as he stayed ok in the Lexus.
Think another 2f on a course he enjoys will be ok,but another that we aint gonna know till near the time. |
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Gonna back FL for the Ryannair with the VC offer,just in case.
Already have him backed for the Gold Cup,need the insurance,as i really think hes a big player at the festival in his chosen race. |
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I backed FL last year in r.s.a and he was bet fair and square by BW. It is possible that FL wasn't 100% with all the mishaps he had last year but I doubt that, as I wouldn't have swapped him for anything else turning for home. The fact of the matter is he was completely outstayed by BW. I would be very surprised if all goes to plan with SDC that FL doesn't line up in the Ryanair, Istly he'd have an outstanding chance and 2ndly he'd represent the sponsor. (again only if everything does to plan with SDC).
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extremely good point! I already think SDC will win the Hennessey so it would then make sense that he would be the one of the CGC
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Each to their own methods, but using stats isn't one for me.
For example, Silviniaco Conti has top rate form this year (continuing from the end of last year), won a Betfair, top class jockey, top class trainer and he is simply dismissed because he didn't run in the King George, whereas Grands Crus has stamina doubts and has been stuffed twice this year but because he was placed in a hurdle race once he has a chance? |
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read it all again
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Stats,trends they aint for me either chief,and i totally agree with your points about SC and GC.
I also think in a race like the Gold Cup where all the runners we know pretty well,it dont apply so much as say a race like the RSA. Still,we are all different and a lot do use them,and it does bring out opinions from others as has happened after Judo's original post. I may not agree with some of what he says but i find it interesting. |
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It's not just not running in KG though.is it? SC actually swerved festival last year and has no chase course form.
I agree he has decent form this season but on flat tracks and I do see why people would be dead against him. |