Cheltenham Festival
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Gold Cup thoughts now Christmas has passed
Gold Cup thoughts now Christmas has passed
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Tidal Bay will run in the GC should ground be softish,no brainer.
Walsh just wants to win both races,so dont blame him for his comments. If he wants the GC winner and its soft,all he has to do is get on board Tidal Bay,he would have more chance than SC imo. |
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When Flemenstar wins the Irish Hennessey at a canter, I think people will need to reassess the Gold Cup picture
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Conti loves soft ground, loves going left handed is also bred to stay and will really appreciate the gold cup trip but also has plenty of pace. Ruby will ride Conti if they decide to run the race in a swimming pool. I'd be confident in saying Conti is probably working all over Tidal Bay at home, there's a reason Conti's name will be above Kauto's box next year. 2 horse race Conti v Bobs Worth.
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okey doke brooksie,may as well give it to SC now then with all that going for him.
if only it were that easy mate 2 horse race  |
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Keeping my powder dry in this for a while, cannot have BOB'S WORTH at all in this, he has the best form, but RSA winners have a dismal record in this and can only see his price shortening further as we get closer to the race. His form in the Hennessy is top class. I backed him in that but will not be backing him now at the current prices. This race i think might turn into almost a dirty each way race as time goes on.
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I'm not sure who will come out on top, I'd side with SDC or BW at the moment although the ground will have a major say. I do know that it's most certainly not a 2 horse race this season.
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I would still be looking at the gold cup being run on decent ground as most years. Surely it can't keep raining!!!!
As for the tidal bay scenario, if ruby says he wants it to run in the stayers then it probably will. He seems to call the shots as far as I see. Personally I think it would be the right race to go for. No big bucks this year leaves it very open and a better option for a 12 year old. Makes you think ruby believes quevega won't be going the stayers route. Winning the gold cup takes a hell of a lot out of a horse and very few bounce back. So on that line of thought I feel Long Runs efforts last year were of the highest order. His victory at Kempton shows he is back to winning ways and must be a danger again this year. Wasn't pleased to read Henderson is sending him to Newbury again this year. Think that race can take the edge off a horse so close to the big day. Bobs Worth has always looked a Gold Cup horse from his early days and its do far so good for him. He looks bomb proof at the moment and I'm really struggling to look beyond him. I didn't think he looked himself most if last season so he could have pounds of improvement to come yet. I didn't think the Lexus was up to gold cup winning form but its still very early days and I'm prepared to wait a little longer before getting involved. |
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Nicholls came out today and said Tidal Bay may well go for stayers then Grand National.
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The notion that the RSA has a tendency to bottom horses has, for this year at least been dispelled with the performances of BW, FL and even walkon and grands crus KG run being none too shabby, so I wouldn't be worrying one jot about that.
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Surely the main reason Ruby wants TB aimed at the World Hurdle is so he has 2 chances of winning big races instead of just 1 chance in the GC as he can't ride both TB and SC. I would bet a fair amount that had Big Bucks still been fit the suggestion wouldn't have crossed his mind. And Wylie must want a genuine crack at a GC over another World Hurdle albeit without Ruby riding his chances probably decrease
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If Tidal Bay doesn't run in the Gold cup,Wylie is gutless for letting the manipulative Ruby and Nicholls have their own way-knowing they have a decent chance with Silviani Conti.
Nicholls should be making the best decision in the interest of the horse/owner and not trying to maximise his potential earnings and avoiding conflict by keeping them in separate races.Would they even contemplate the stayers if Bucks was still in it or if he didn't train SC.?? Wylie has won 3 stayers and with the age of Tidal Bay should be going for the Blue Ribband,no doubt Nicholls and Ruby will spin a yarn about Aintree. Ruby is obsessed with financial gain and is renowned for being "frugal" but I hope he doesn't get his own way here again. |
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I don't understand the logic. Many are commenting that TB will benefit from the extra quarter mile in the Gold Cup. Nobody has yet countered that. He beat the best that Ireland has to offer over a flattish 3 miles and prior to the Lexus these were supposedly the cream who were going to carry all before them.
So why would he go for the race which is quarter of a mile shorter than the Gold Cup trip having already won over 5 furlong further than the World Hurdle trip and with question marks about the stamina of most of the supposed leading lights? |
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Exactly,and on soft ground many would be crying enough when he goes past them.
Nicholls said on decent ground the stayers is more likely and i agree,thats fair enough,but on soft or worse he has to go for the GC which connections have intimated at,and really its clear for all to see that in them conditions hes a major player,as his last 3 chases have confirmed.In fact it werent even that bad underfoot when 2nd to Bobsworth giving him weight. His form is as good as any and better than most this season. Walsh knows all that,and he knows on soft ground the horse has a serious chance. Even if Walsh rides conti,so what,im sure Jacob wont mind the ride,and i for one would be happy for him to ride him. |
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Tiday Bay carry top weight off 169 / 170 in the National?
I wouldn't be too keen to send my pride and joy to the race carrying 8lbs more than what last year's Gold Cup winner did. |
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A horse with such an attitude and an enigma such as Tidal Bay, i would be very disappointed if Ruby were not riding him if he were to run in the Gold Cup, just the very idea that they would switch jockeys puts me off as the chances of the horse sulking again are greatly increased imo!
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A horse with such an attitude and an enigma such as Tidal Bay, i would be very disappointed if Ruby were not riding him if he were to run in the Gold Cup, just the very idea that they would switch jockeys puts me off as the chances of the horse sulking again are greatly increased imo!
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no sulking when jacob rode him in the whitbread STS.
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I caught the interview on ATR from Taunton yesterday - he did n't say much that has n't already been said on here - could go World Hurdle, Grand National, Gold Cup if soft, entries in both etc.
Wylie comes across as a thoroughly likeable and mild mannered sort of chap but I doubt he made such a success out of Sage without getting his own way, plenty often enough - I doubt also that he's gullible enough to allow them to 'spin him a yarn' about the Grand National. He could go Gold Cup and Grand National - big ask admittedly, given the weight he would be allotted and the fact that there's only 22 days between the races but Nicholls also said yesterday that you'd hardly know he'd had a race in the Lexus. If they won Gold Cup they probably would n't bother with the National but they might be tempted if he runs well - which he very likely would do.They could even have another go at Whitbread if GN is too soon. The jockey thing is a bit of a red herring for me - obviously Ruby was brilliant in the Lexus but the horse is such a character that it looked very much to me as if he relished the opportunity to be clever and go between the other two - his win in the Whitbread with Jacob on board was equally revelatory. |
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If I was Wylie I would be rather upset at Ruby telling me which race to go for on National tv before discussing it. Wylie has 3 World Hurdles already and never had a horse good enough to challenge for Gold Cup honours. Ruby stating the WH should be the target puts pressure on Wylie and could be an "egg on face" situation if he doesn't perform in GC.
Personally all this talk of TB being too old is rubbish. If you look at his profile since moving to PN and ignore his age, he is an improving horse. To suggest he only comes into his own over extreme distances in a bog is bullox too, he won an Arkle on goodish ground ffs. No for me its GC all the way, and fook Ruby if he thinks SC is better(I think he looks like a light 6 yr old to me and a battle over 3,2m will be a bridge too far this year)thatf fine, Im equally happy to have Jacob on board who made TB look mighty when winning at Sandown |
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It's not only age that puts me off Tidal Bay it's that I also think Bobs Worth did beat him quite comfortably even if he was rec weight I wouldn't expect those placings to shange. I do think Tidal Bay would run well and most likely place but don't see him as the winner. I do expect Bobs Worth to win but have not backed him as of yet.
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Can we stop talking about Tidal Bay now, he has little Change of winning a Gold Cup as he is likely to run in Stayers and even if he doesn;t he won't have Ruby on his back.
If it's looking like coming up soft in early March then bring the horse up again. But he's been over discussed in the past few days and it's mostly wasted discussion imo. |
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When did Cheltenham announce that the gold cup will be run as an NH Flat race? The SDC supporters have stated he hit 3 fences, thus causing the defeat in the Lexus. Well sorry guys but the Cheltenham Gold Cup has fences too - about 20 of them I think!!!
BW a strong fav for me. |
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there is no doubt that BW should be favorite on all known form, however anyone who has a A/P bet on SDC won't be disappointed on what they've seen so far and I see lot o improvement in him over the next few months. I think FL has run exceptionally well this season as he is not a winter ground horse as he proved last year. Although he got beat fair and square by BW in the rsa last year I don't believe that last year everything went to plan for the connections and having backed him at 25's for last years rsa I am disappointed I dismissed him when there was big prices available. Personally I couldn't have either SC or LR at any prices.
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I am on Sir Des Champs, Bobsworth and Long Run.
This was before any of the major players showed this season. Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D |
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I am on Sir Des Champs, Bobsworth and Long Run.
This was before any of the major players showed this season. Market has been volatile since then, at that time Sir D |
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Apologies.
Market has been volatile since then, at that time SDC was 6-1 fac with Long Run and Bobsworth 8s. I staked accordingly for similar returns. The phoney war in the markets since then has seen both Flemenstar and Silviaico Conti (?) come to near head the market. I saw SC in its opening race at Wetherby, doing all that was necessary and was actually at haydock to watch the non event with Long Run in Betfair. My reading of that race was that Ruby worked it out and used the fact that his horse was second time out to win a falsely run race very nicely. As a big Long Run fan I was unhappy with the run but you have to say, they left the best part of season behind at Haydock chasing Kauto home last time. Market overreacted. SC was right at head of market and Long Run drifted out to 10s for a while. I tipped this up as solid EW value and a few lads in work got on in the offices. I will admit a weakness for Long Run and am more concerned with the race before Cheltenham than anything else. King George was tidy but not spectacular. Bobsworth was a pick on last years Cheltenham win, the Hennesey win was best we have seen so far and his odds have halved. I always thought the Lexus would give us some answers. My thoughts on that are that Flemenstar would have finished a poor fourth given another two furlongs. I thought Sir Des Champs was flying at end and again coupled with Cheltenham run last year am very happy. Given that glory for Flemenstar lies other than at the Gold Cup. Given that I am not convinced by SC run at Betfair and have no worries over Long Runs second in that race. Given that I think both Bobsworth and Long Run have measure of First Lieutenant. Given I am not yet convinced with Conti. Biggest question here is has he even seen the finish at Cheltenham? Saw him in Mildmay at Aintree last year so I know they swerved Cheltenham last time. Given all of these things I will stick with my 3. For all that I like Long Run (National some time?), and for all Bobsworth having best form this year, I fancy SDC the most out of them. Just to rub it in he is available at better price than when I got on! Stand to be corrected but Conti lack of Cheltenham form makes his current price way too short. All the best. |
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Oh yes, and Tidal Bay?
I think that they have got it ready for those two early season races, Hennessey and Lexus. Would they risk the National instead??? Particularly with handicapper not hammering quality horses nowadays.I was on Neptune following that second he ran to Gilles Cross, similar quality horse who you just knew could keep on going. Ended up well in on best form. Maybe Tidal would be allotted too much, Ruby thinks so. Either way, I think he would get to Cheltenham like Kauto did last year, just with too much gone from the tank. I like the old boys but I think we may have seen his season in the last month. |
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Is it possible, no matter where Tidal Bay runs at Cheltenham he might also run in national. If I owned him, and I had two fancied horses in, On his Own and Prince de Beauhene and it made sense to keep the weighs down I'd at least line T.B up.
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Will be a tough ask in 2013 for a horse to run in either Gold Cup or World Hurdle at The Festival and then turn out for Grand National. There are only three weeks between Gold Cup and National this year. Last year there was 4 weeks and only Synchronised ran in both. Nuff said.
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on his own
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CV,Tidal Bay has as much right to be discussed on here as any other horse,in fact his form this season gives him more reason than most.
You got the hump cos he beat the best of the Irish in one of their top 3m races mate? Not sure what your reasoning is to say we should not discuss a horse that has proved hes a leading contender,but really mate you sound a bit bitter towards the horse. Just cos the WH has been mentioned certainly does not warrant a total disregard for his chances in the GC,after all that race has been mentioned a few times as well by connections. |
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Now's the time for a bet on the Gold Cup. The prices are crazy on here. Why would they be betting to 107% with 87 horses
in the list? Too many layers and not enough punters I suspect. I reckon that the book is over-broke once you take out the no-hopers. |
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Its probably fair to say the performance of TB have surprised everyone, including Nicholls and Walsh this year. This horse has kept so much back for so long, and only now have they found the key to him, I bet the horse is still in the equivalent of his prime.
Still, those that keep writing him off keep paying the price. |
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can people please stop saying tidal bay might "chuck it in again" or not "fancy it"
can anybody show me a run since nicholls has sorted out his various issues which show he is likely to so this please? |
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The only one of the fancied horse I'm convinced won't win it is Flemenstar. Sir Des Champs my favourite at the moment.
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and me prefer First Lieutenant
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At the moment my two for this race are (and i cannot believe i am going to say this)
FIRST LIEUTENANT - Think the trip and course will be right up this fellows street this season could we be his for the taking judged solely on that lexus run, an improver with racing, and a spring horse too TIDAL BAY  - i did back him for that arkle he won though so can't really say faith has ever wavered I really like bob's worth, but his price imo has now gone. I was wanting on at 9/2 but silly me decided to wait until after the Lexus was run not expecting it to turn out the way it did. He may well win the gold cup, but as i already stated earlier this race i think as we get closer is going to turn into a little bit of a dirty each way race as i can see bobs worths price shortening further as time goes on but none of the others by much at all. Oh and then there is that stat, RSA winners and the gold cup, dismal record! |
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Bud you'd be interested to know that March has been the driest month 3 of the last 4 years and was the 2nd driest the other year. Interesting stuff, was on BBC news there about the weather.
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yeh been watching the news,looks like its gonna take a lot to get rid of the water thats lying around.
Dry jan and we could be back on track for a normal festival. |
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Interesting how Summers are now wet and spring is now driest. What happened to the old word "Spring Showers"?
 Weather is crazy these days |