Well sint whatever else he was finishing well and has shown the last two years that he finishes well at Cheltenham. However he cannot jump like that and agree that his price is all wrong, especially in relation to those who finished in front of him.

Much has been said about the quality of the 2nd season chasers. Bobs Worth is now rightly the favourite and whilst SC has been impressive, I find it strange that he is yet to race at Cheltenham and his impressive wins have all been at flat tracks.

But potential challengers were beaten well at Kempton and Tidal Bay beat last year's top Irish novices.

Just think that TB will continue to be underestimated and there's a good chance he'll get his ground on the day.

I am not sure switching to World Hurdle for March is so bonkers. If Ruby thought he was a genuine GC horse why would he say "if it was up to me I would go World Hurdle". Ruby said he makes a few mistakes and you just cant afford to do that in GC at the pace they go. Plus the fact he is 12 in March. I guess the decision is they have a genuine chance to win the World Hurdle but winning the GC might be a stretch too far. But I agree he has been an absolute revelation this season. Fantastic. I am sticking with Long Run for GC. Bobs Worth looks the real deal and number 1 threat.

What did anyone make of Nicholls comments after the Hennessy? Went something along the lines of...."the more I think about it, the more I felt Barry ran a very smart race on Bobs Worth". Feels as though he felt that TB was beaten as much on tactics as much as anything else. Wonder where TB will turn up next. From my 102F list perspective I'd love to see him in the Irish Hennessy but connections were also talking 3m Hurdle at Cheltenham end Jan.

sint

I believe there are a number of reasons why people still give SDC a real chance. Even though he didn't jump well at Leopardstown, he still finished close enough to TB and strict interpretation of that form makes him much the same horse as BW. Like BW, he is a young and progressive horse with a good Cheltenham record. He won't blunder round Cheltenham and win but he jumped well enough in the Jewson last season and like BW, is trained by a master. They will both be ready to run for their lives in the second week in March.

he was the best horse in the race,but it looks likely he wont run in the GC.
personally think the Lexus has been the best 3m chase weve seen so far and expect TB,SDC and FL to be big players in the GC.
Bobsworth looks worthy fav,but TB is close to him,and agree that it would be madness not to run TB in the GC.

Gold cup is between Long Run/Bobs Worth/SDC and FL imo,

Thanks CVB,
You are the more articulate of us as that's nearly what i would have said if i wasn't nursing a whiskey induced hangover,
Long Run is all about the stamina and he'll be a bigger danger this year,Connections learnt not to bottom him on his first run and have to say it's so far so good for him,
Bobs Worth's record at Cheltenham says it all really and the Hennessy showed that the RSA hadn't left it's mark,The extra distance won't be a problem on what i've seen and he looks bombproof if you want a place bet,
SDC is the one i have been most keen on since his Jewson win,Can't deny i'm a little dissapointed with his Lexus run but a few too many mistakes and to my eye it looked like he was being ridden to beat one horse,Hasn't looked 100% yet and i really hope the yard are getting some schooling into him as if he misses 1 or 2 out on the big day he'll struggle to stay with them,
FL is just a monster and another who loves the Festival and the spring ground,B.Cooper has given him 3 incredible rides without success and it would be great for him if it came on the biggest stage of all(Put it another way,I'd swap his ride on FL in the lexus for Davy's)He's the value currently and would be a deserved winner.
Good luck and hope you have a profitable 2013.

CVB you are making a dangerous assumption on the ground this year imo.

And to say TB won't run simply because Ruby won't be riding is also wide of the mark. Wylie will want a runner in GC.

saw Wylie interviewed after TB's Lexus win, it went something like interviewer: 'gotta be Gold Cup now, has n't it?', Wylie: 'so the trainer tells me'

However, too long in the tooth to rule anything in out at this stage - could see TB in the Cleeve which he's won before and because he represents stables best chance of winning it and because they've less to gain by taking on BW in Argento - if that happens and he wins then talk of World Hurdle might be rekindled.

Of couirse, Bold Sir Brian might put the cat amongst the pigeons in the Argento

CV - Wylie won't think well I'll wait until next year with those two surely? Race is 15 months away, BiF is just as ground dependent as Tidal Bay and does n't look good enough whilst Boston Bob has plenty to prove.

Daryl Jacob is 100% on TB by the way, rode him when he bolted up at Sandown in April.

Based on what Wylie said on ATR, Nicholls wants him to run in the Gold Cup - it's only Ruby who favours World Hurdle option and as he said (tongue in cheek admittdly) he just rides 'em.

I'm impressed you're so certain about the ground this far out after all the rain we've had - as I said, I'm too long in the tooth to rule anything in or out at this stage!

Having said that, I reckon he'll be entered in both races and could see decision being made as late as the day of the World Hurdle!

2012 wettest year since 1910 - been a few lightning strikes over last 102 years I think.

Bobs worth is bomb proof IMO, all the praise that is being given to TB and FL just shows how strong BW is, he has comfortably IMO beaten those horses in his last few runs, and for all the talk of TB's renaissance which is admirable, BW is much the younger horse and it would be reasonable to assume that he is improving at a greater rate still than him, and is already his superior as it stands.

SDC was overly hyped after his jewson win and paradoxically seems more so after every defeat, to the quote that we've heard a lot, that he jumped badly but still finished close up, I would say, "he jumped badly".

S conti nicked the race against LR with many of us bemoaning the fact that SWC allowed it to turn into a relative speed test in the home straight but which they declared they were happy to run the race and not have him have such a hard race first time up as last year.....subsequent events haven't harmed that approach. SC beat a bunch of second raters at wetherby and his runs last year show nothing that point to GC winner, he beat BW at kempton with geraghty declaring that it felt that his horse was running with a bag over his head, he could not breathe, at ascot BW needed the run and didn't wholly enjoy going left handed but was still SC's superior.

BW is a strong strong fav. with no holes in him IMO, 3/1 is more than generous.

Silviniaco Conti certainly has been to Cheltenham

Sil Conti has been to a 2m hurdle race at Cheltenham. Is there anything further from the Gold Cup than that?

before the PP meeting in early November Simon Claisse said it was the first time in many years they did not have to water the course before the meeting. There is enough residual water in Cheltenham right now there will need to be a sustained dry spell. Of course there is plenty of time for that to happen between now and March but trying to predict the weather is like trying to predict the Lotto. The King George was Heavy ground this year for the first time since 2001. So it can happen.

Anywhoo .. as much as Ruby is a great jockey, I actually thought his ride in the HGC at Newbury was not that great. Perhaps he was just caught out by those up front. Daryl Jacob is an able deputy.

As for being 12yo .. well that is technically true, but then so is the fact TB has only had 8 races for PFN and he's won half of them. PFN is convinced his new training regime and diet has ironed out some of his problems from the past. With Synchronised last year he brought solid handicap form to the race lumping big weights over marathon trips. This is the same for TB.

Having a chance of running a genuine contender, be it for a place or a win, in a Gold Cup is very rare. There is no way Tidal Bay will go back to hurdles now he has Won a Grade 1 chase. Where is the precedent for it in the same season??

SDC clearly has an engine but if you are backing him you are basically doing so in the hope he is going to jump better. He might, but then he might not.

CVB Cheltenham was run on good ground after the one of the driest winters on record. I had a hose pipe ban and then it hasn't stopped raining since. The water table is so high, completely different from recent years.

It may dry out but much more chance of soft ground imo

Say what you want Rease but stats show Cheltenham is nearly always run on good to soft ground, usually aided by watering. So I do antepost betting under the assumption it will be good ground. If it comes up soft then other horses come into play but until that happens it's safe to assume it will be good ground.

Duffy, Sil Conti was coughing along with Zarkander and others when he was beaten at Ascot it's fair to rule that run out. Similar to how Bobs had breathing problem in Feltham. So I wouldn't trust any of their form lines between those two from last season.

As for Bobs Worth I think he should have all bar Long Run and Sil Conti beat on the evidence of this season and last seasons RSA. So if you do back him it would be wise to cover with those two then you're close to bomb proof.

Quevega, I meant Nicholls chose to skip RSA last season as he said he didn't think the track would suite. He's run 3 times on flat tracks since. That's what I mean, bar my incorrect wording.

10 years ago Reath, or thereabouts.

Climate Change innit