Cheltenham Festival
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Staying hurdling apparently (twitter)
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Also posted here in the AP forum.
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^^^ alright smarty pants
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I didn't mean it like that Howdi - I was just adding some "extra confirmation" to your post.
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OW will be kept away from Big Bucks states NJH.
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It is a shame IMO - not the biggest, but robust and powerful, I think he would make a good chaser.
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Champion Hurdle the big price on here!
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Whatever they decide,i will be backing him,great attitude and highly talented horse.
May well have won the CH last season given his form with Overturn,so if he reverted back to 2m hurdling he would interest me for the CH. If he goes chasing and takes to the fences then hes a major player in the Arkle or Jewson,guess a lot depends on whether they change their minds re Simonsig going chasing. |
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50s for the champion hurdle ...insult!!!
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indeed,and imagine he dont take to fences,and goes back to 2-2and half m hurdles.
He aint no 50's shot then. |
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HE ISNT GOING FENCING BUDD...
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His trainer told me he is mate
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ANNOUNCED LAST WEEK STAYING OVER HURDLES
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Been away last couple of weeks,so aint seen that.
What was said and by whom? And why is he still available at 50?? |
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IN PRESS BUDD
Staying over hurdles and avoiding Big Bucks. |
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CheltFestNews@CheltFestNews
No decision yet taken whether Simonsig stays hurdling or goes novice chasing. Oscar Whisky stays hurdling though but will avoid Big Buck's. |
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Welsh Champion Hurlde is OW's main target for the season apparently (big shock there....)
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Umm,change of mind then,wonder what decided that?
Still,good news as i feel hes a CH horse. Problem is the Welsh CH is fairly close to the festival,so Aintree could be his other priority. Still,i have a small slice of 80 on here,and currently 50 is far too big,if he does turn up in the CH. I know the owner owns Ffos Las,but hes won it twice now,surely he should now be trained for the biggie,horse deserves a crack again imo. Could well have won the race last season,certainly would have gone bl00dy close. |
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Oscar still big price in wide open market,3rd 2 years back and would have gone close last season on Overturns form,hopefully Champion will be target as
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not going over fences and not meeting Big Bucks,slight worry may save him for Aintree?
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Given his record at Aintree it seems sensible that's a big target for him.
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yep,its his optimum distance,but its another race he has won before.
Still think hes a big threat should they choose CH route,and am convinced thats what he should do. Certainly if i owned him he would!! |
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Unfortunately (for you) his owner is a "character". I'm convinced he'd have been a player in the CH this year (I was before the race and more so given how it panned out). Like you I think it's worth having a shot at the CH (though the 2013 renewal may be tougher). However, the reality is the Welsh CH and Aintree are likely to be his major targets because that's what the owner wants (and which also makes life easier for the trainer and stable jockey). That makes him a dodgy AP punt for Cheltenham.
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Oh yeh mate,all that makes sense,at least his price is worth a speculative punt.
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Thought i heard Boycie say today he is going Aintree, missing Cheltenham.
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2 years ago he won the Welsh CH,then ran in CH and then won at Aintree.
Fail to see why he cannot do that again to be honest. Stronger horse now as well. |
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stevo - i read the other day he'll most likely run in the champion.
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And so he should.
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Talk of this horse winning a champion hurdle is complete nonsense.
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I agree. His form ties (IMO) closely with ROR.
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If he was good enough to win a champion then surely to God he would have allready?
Very hard to make a case for him improving. |
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Well if you think he could have won it this year(as i do)then he may be good enough,and no need to improve.
Whatever,hes proved hes entitled to run in the race,no doubt. |
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I agree Budd. I have backed him at 50s but I accept a doubt exists about his particpiation (Welsh, Natinal Spirit, Aintree were being mooted).
Last yr, given their ammo, a crack at BB seemed sensible. As it happened, on all known form, he would have been in the 3 (IMO in front) if he had run because, as a stayer, he would have been ridden towards the speed, the best place to be it transpired. I suspect they think Grandouet and Binocular represent better prospects but I think prominently ridden he would go close. The yr before he finished a close-ish 3rd and it was IMO a better race. Admittedly when stamina was key, he was beating Overturn at Ascot when falling carrying a penalty last yr. He has beaten ROR a couple of times (although arguably ROR had excuses). |
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Very admirable horse, but I wouldn't begrudge Thousand Stars an Aintree Hurdle win.
My view is that whilst Oscar is well entitled to run, I think he'll struggle against the very best over 2 miles, but that is factored into his price. He's 90% certain to be in my Ten to Follow anyway. I'm desperate for Peddlers to back down the 2 mile hurdle route, whose form ties in well with Oscar. At least the Champion Hurlde is a lot more interesting this year because of the Fly losing his crown, and it being much more open, where you can make a case for about five or six of them |
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Hi WC.
I think Oscar probably would struggle against the very best, but who are they now? Probable runners from last yrs race? Hurricane Fly may have deteriorated terminally (though it is possible he wil be back to his best for one more shot), Binocular always comes with a big question mark (though that may be unfair), Overturn is going chasing (and could not win a moderate renewal), ROR only just beat Overturn (in a moderate renewal), Zarkander may need further and did not win last yr (though as a horse who may not have been right I think he ran great, aged 5, and should improve). I think you can put a line through the remaining runners from last year and then if you take out (the possibly past his best) Hurricane and (the possibly needing further, possibly soured by a bad chasing experience) Peddlars, then Oscar actually won the Champion from the yr before... Who did not turn up last yr? Menorah? Oscar beat him the yr before (and nobody in their right mind could make a legit case now, surely). Grandouet? He beat Overturn 4l getting 4lbs in December so that may not be good enough (though I believe he (like Zarkander) is surely likely to improve if suffering no ill-effects from the injury). Go Native? I simply cannot see it. We are mainly then left with last yrs novices. The best of that bunch is surely going chasing (Simonsig). As is Hinterland. The Supreme was IMO an average renewal. Some will, however, step forward. Darlan? We will see. Montbazon? We will see. Cinders? We will see but I have doubts. The Triumph - Countrywide Flame? He may do a Katchit but I think it is more likely to be snowed off. Dodging Bullets? Takes a leap of the imagination and may stay the novice route. Grumeti? Interesting but wont be seen till Christmas and we know juveniles do not have a 100% record. Balder Success? Interesting, but on form, hard to make a case. All I am saying is that on all known form, if Oscar runs, he should not be 50s. Far from it. I do not think this is a vintage period at this stage. Some old favourites will resurfance and some new stars will leave their old form behind, no doubt, but a decent case can be made for Oscar IMO when so many others have question marks against them and unless the old Hurricane re-emerges (as he might) there is not a standout star. |
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Re the above, I have probably missed a few out..
Btw, fwiw, I think ROR will be on the premises again. He did not win a vintage renewal IMO, but might imropve again, has a trainer who knows how to peak him and would be suited by the venue. You can knock the race he won, but it would be no great shock if ROR was there again. Out of the usual suspects though, I just expect Zarkander, Binocular, Grandouet and (if going) Oscar to have a bigger say than they did last yr. No obvious star on form exists amogst last yrs novices, though some may step up. In these circumstances, I think Oscar deserves a crack and is overpriced. |
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Hi RC,
I totally agree that this will not be a vintage renewal, and as I've said above, you can make a case for about five or six of them, of which one of them is Oscar Whisky. Imo, if he was to run in the Champion he is definite place material, but feel that because he has ran in the Supreme and Champion, and won neither, it puts doubt in my mind that he is a genuine 2 miler. My views will change if Henderson sends him to the Fighting Fifth or Christmas Hurdle, but while his trainer ducks the big 2 mile races, it makes me believe his trainer doubts he is an out and out 2 miler. Last year they had Grandouet, Spirit Son, Oscar and Binocular to juggle, and could completely understand them sending Oscar to the World Hurdle if Spirit Son and Grandouet were fit, but when they were ruled out, I would have expected Hendo to send Oscar to the Champion. I know his owner will have a lot to say, and hats off to them for trying to beat Big Bucks, but I would have thought they'd send him to the Champion if they thought he was that good over 2. Like you said, he would have been a big player in last year's Champion, but imo so would Thousand Stars, and Peddlers. Early in the season Thousand Stars very comfortably beat Oscars Well by 5 lengths, whereas Hurricane Fly only beat Oscars Well about 3 lengths being driven all the way to the line. Last year's form lines are all over the place imo. Unaccompanied beating Thousand Stars and then getting crushed in the Irish Champion, Rock on Ruby getting beat by Binocular, Hurricane Fly running well below form in the Champion, Brampour getting within a neck of the Champion Hurdle runner up with a claimer on board etc. Basically, a long story short, I'm probably reading too much into how he has been campaigned, and his connections preferring a non traitional Champion route over longer distances. Coupled with he's never ran in Grade 1 2 mile race outside of the festival, I think there may one or two too speedy for him. Sorry, if all that is just waffle  |
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Any news on Spirit Son for this year? A shame he got injured as it was a very hot supreme he ran in.
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The hurdler I'm most looking forward to seeing this season is Grandouet. Backed him last season fo the Champion, and gutted when he got injured. Just loved the way he travels, and happy that he managed to win the International last season at the course. My one and only slight reservation is that he's come down a couple of times.
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RC,WC,
Bl00dy good posts there,and must admit its got my mouth watering. I actually think ROR was a real good winner of the race and would be no surprise should he do it again,and OW is of a similar profile i think,in that they are both better at slightly longer,but can win 2m races if the race pans out as it did this year.Theres no doubt in my mind that ROR and if hes there OW will try and do a similar thing to this years race,and it will be interesting to see how the others deal with that,cos neither will be stopping at the end,given their guaranteeed stamina. I accept that next March could be a different type of race,and different horses of course,but given his form i think we all agree OW deserves a crack at the race,and it would be nice if the owner actually lets the trainer train him for it,rather than being obsessed with winning his race at Fos las,which really falls a bit close to the festival for me. |