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Staying hurdling apparently (twitter)
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Lets not forget everyone; Kentford Grey Lady was a fairly close third and closing down on them up the run in. Johnson thought Reve de Sivola wasnt at his best today. I think an attempt to go for the Stayers on any ground with Oscar will backfire. Form over 2 miles is leagues better than this.
giving the horse a stone in that ground is by no means bad. Kentford is probably the 2nd best mare currently in training. Better ground and you will deffo see a reverse in positions. I noticed OW didn't jump as well as he can which i get the feeling was something to do with the ground and I think if Barry had perhaps asked for a big one at the last instead of slowing up he'd of won.
Think the 2 irish horses are going to prove formidable opponents,and their connections would have enjoyed watching Oscar and Reve slugging it out on that ground up the hill.
Think they would be my most likely winners right now.
Think they would be my most likely winners right now.
I'd have to disagree with you on this one Budd, and say that I'd be very surprised if the winner did not come from England, with those two yesterday and Tidal Bay in the mix.
The two Irish ones have beaten Zaidpour, by your own admissions, probably a non stayer over 3m.
Although badly hampered in the Neptune, Monksland was beaten a long way last year, and although that is probsbly short of his best trip, I thought it was a fantastic ride by Carberry who left it really late. I don't think that was a particularly strong race either, with exposed horses like So Young, Whatuthink and a well below par Volder La Vedette finishing behind.
After that race Carberry said the ground was much too soft, so if it comes up good at Cheltenham, I couldn't have him finishing ahead of Oscar Whiskey.
I'd put Bog Warrior quite a bit in front of Monksland at the moment, but again it comes down to ground. I think Bog Warrior will need it soft at the least to win a World Hurdle, and with no course form i think his price is plenty short enough at around 10/1.
The two Irish ones have beaten Zaidpour, by your own admissions, probably a non stayer over 3m.
Although badly hampered in the Neptune, Monksland was beaten a long way last year, and although that is probsbly short of his best trip, I thought it was a fantastic ride by Carberry who left it really late. I don't think that was a particularly strong race either, with exposed horses like So Young, Whatuthink and a well below par Volder La Vedette finishing behind.
After that race Carberry said the ground was much too soft, so if it comes up good at Cheltenham, I couldn't have him finishing ahead of Oscar Whiskey.
I'd put Bog Warrior quite a bit in front of Monksland at the moment, but again it comes down to ground. I think Bog Warrior will need it soft at the least to win a World Hurdle, and with no course form i think his price is plenty short enough at around 10/1.
* I thought it was a fantastic ride by Carberry who left it really late
Sorry, referring to his last race in Ireland over 3m.
Sorry, referring to his last race in Ireland over 3m.
Dont be underestimating these 2 mate.
Yes i do think Zaidpour is a non stayer at top level,but these 2 aint,far from it.
Think they will enjoy WH conditions and will relish the task a lot more than Oscar.
Yes ground plays a part,but we dont know what that will be yet.
RDS and TB(if he runs)are big threats cos they stay so well,but ground could be important to them as well.
Another that would come into it is Cape Tribulation,if they decided to go for it,think they should to be honest.
Nothing to do with my 130 on him
Yes i do think Zaidpour is a non stayer at top level,but these 2 aint,far from it.
Think they will enjoy WH conditions and will relish the task a lot more than Oscar.
Yes ground plays a part,but we dont know what that will be yet.
RDS and TB(if he runs)are big threats cos they stay so well,but ground could be important to them as well.
Another that would come into it is Cape Tribulation,if they decided to go for it,think they should to be honest.
Nothing to do with my 130 on him
Is Rite of Passage intended to run in this? I completely forgot about him but his flat peroformances would indicate he's improved since we last seen him over hurdles. His hurdles form was closely matched with Reve even back then.
Very impressed with Oscar Whisky's 2nd place in the Cleeve.
I think he hated the ground and showed great attitude to fight to the line. It now looks like Geraghty and Henderson are in agreement that the horse will stay the trip and I expect he will be ridden differently in the World Hurdle.
It is also worth noting that Geraghty and Richard Johnson both said in seperate interviews that Reve de Siviola may be ground dependent. This is not to say that he doesn't have form on good ground but that he is much better on soft/heavy.
I think he hated the ground and showed great attitude to fight to the line. It now looks like Geraghty and Henderson are in agreement that the horse will stay the trip and I expect he will be ridden differently in the World Hurdle.
It is also worth noting that Geraghty and Richard Johnson both said in seperate interviews that Reve de Siviola may be ground dependent. This is not to say that he doesn't have form on good ground but that he is much better on soft/heavy.
Where did u see that?^
Johnson said after the race yest that RDS didnt like the ground straight after on C4
Johnson said after the race yest that RDS didnt like the ground straight after on C4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBP1pzB0Tak
At around 1.59.45
At around 1.59.45
I'm not having OW hating the ground given his previous form on it. Not staying the trip as well as he may be able to on better ground I'll give you.
BJG
Just watched your link now. It's hard to make out his comments but I think he said the trainer thought he wouldn't like the ground before the race and Johnson himself thought he didn't enjoy it as much as Ascot which was also heavy.
Just watched your link now. It's hard to make out his comments but I think he said the trainer thought he wouldn't like the ground before the race and Johnson himself thought he didn't enjoy it as much as Ascot which was also heavy.
Oscar is fine on soft ground over lesser distance cos that distance hes comfortable with.
I dont think hes comfortable at 3m on any ground.
Yes,he could get away with it and still win,but trouble is hes up against horses that will relish the trip.
Still hoping they will see sense and run him in the CH if its soft,and skip festival otherwise.
Thats if they still see Aintree as HIS race this season.
I dont think hes comfortable at 3m on any ground.
Yes,he could get away with it and still win,but trouble is hes up against horses that will relish the trip.
Still hoping they will see sense and run him in the CH if its soft,and skip festival otherwise.
Thats if they still see Aintree as HIS race this season.
geraghty said yesterday that OW didnt feel right after 2 miles, and didnt feel right after 2 and a half miles, in ground he should have excelled in, kinda makes his second on saturday even better, he also said the trip will not be a problem come march
I can't see Oscar getting home in a faster run race, I hope that Bog Warrior can turnout to a bit special as the race looks very week this year....
(If he were mine, I'd run Simonsig in it)
(If he were mine, I'd run Simonsig in it)
OW beat in world hurdle you get an excuse.
OW beat in cleeve and you get another excuse,he couldn't go past RDS and this race was run 48 seconds slower than world hurdle,so its not conclusive that he stays this trip.
I don't understand how he needs soft ground in a champion hurdle,but over 3 miles he needs good ground
OW beat in cleeve and you get another excuse,he couldn't go past RDS and this race was run 48 seconds slower than world hurdle,so its not conclusive that he stays this trip.
I don't understand how he needs soft ground in a champion hurdle,but over 3 miles he needs good ground
the ground in last years WH and the ground in the cleeve were totally diferent so the times mean zilch...
the ground in last years WH and the ground in the cleeve were totally diferent so the times mean zilch...
The times mean absolutely ZILCH in all national hunt horse racing imo. You just cannot compare from race to race whether it be the same or not. Conditions and the way a race is run sees to that and the past 4 world hurdles have all been contested and won by BIG BUCKS, possibly the best staying hurdler of our generation!
I have never taken times into account, and its stood me pretty well in the 20 years ive followed racing!
I have never taken times into account, and its stood me pretty well in the 20 years ive followed racing!
Loada bollox eh? Agreed. Just run him over 2m4f at Aintree and he wins. No chance in the Champ and doesnt stay well enough for a World. Only a clown would back him
Got every chance in the CH if ground suits,no doubt.
Agree he dont stay well enough to win the WH.
Agree he dont stay well enough to win the WH.
Heavy ground requires stamina and Oscar Whisky ran all the way to the line in the Cleeve Hurdle over 3m and was just touched off by a horse that relishes that going.
Reve de Sivola is a 6 lbs worse horse on good ground whereas it could be argued that Oscar Whisky will improve for better going.
It would be an interesting rematch on heavy ground but otherwise Reve de Sivola can be confidently dismissed from calculations come March as the festival is certain to be ran on better ground than the Cleeve.
Reve de Sivola is a 6 lbs worse horse on good ground whereas it could be argued that Oscar Whisky will improve for better going.
It would be an interesting rematch on heavy ground but otherwise Reve de Sivola can be confidently dismissed from calculations come March as the festival is certain to be ran on better ground than the Cleeve.
If OW doesn't stay then neither does RDS... People expect OW to just cruise and win every race...? Its a stayers hurdle everything should be off the bridle at some point.
I think chapman made a very good point about this horse the other day, OW has a run style where he gets on with it and puts horses to the sword some way from home, that's how he does it and is really effective at it, in the world hurdle his whole run style has to change, he'll have to hold onto to him, nurse him into it and try and produce him late on and hope he's got enough gas left....that is not oscar whiskey.
Didn't you watch the Cleeve Hurdle duffy?
Those were the tactics employed on the day and he was just touched off by current market leader Reve de Sivola.
Geraghty and Henderson now know that Oscar Whisky stays well and better ground and a more confident ride will provide a different result come March.
Expect Oscar Whisky to be brought into the race at halfway, as others start cracking he will be traveling all over his rivals and will be produced between the last two flights. It will take a really good one to lower his colours imo......
Those were the tactics employed on the day and he was just touched off by current market leader Reve de Sivola.
Geraghty and Henderson now know that Oscar Whisky stays well and better ground and a more confident ride will provide a different result come March.
Expect Oscar Whisky to be brought into the race at halfway, as others start cracking he will be traveling all over his rivals and will be produced between the last two flights. It will take a really good one to lower his colours imo......
buddeliea 29 Jan 13 17:04 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 7,959 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Got every chance in the CH if ground suits,no doubt.
How do you work that out?
Got every chance in the CH if ground suits,no doubt.
How do you work that out?
Its an opinion based on his liking for soft ground as opposed to others that will line up,his ability to travel well and his obvious staying power up the hill at that distance.
buddeliea
Wouldn't you rather be taking on the likes of Reve de Sivola and Monksland as opposed to Hurricane Fly and Darlan?
Oscar Whisky is a class horse and would not be out of place in a Champion Hurdle however, as he demonstrated he is capable of getting 3m in the Cleeve Hurdle and Big Bucks is out this season it appears to be a straightforward decision to run in the longer race.
He holds a strong winning chance in the World Hurdle but would be running for a place in the Champion.
Wouldn't you rather be taking on the likes of Reve de Sivola and Monksland as opposed to Hurricane Fly and Darlan?
Oscar Whisky is a class horse and would not be out of place in a Champion Hurdle however, as he demonstrated he is capable of getting 3m in the Cleeve Hurdle and Big Bucks is out this season it appears to be a straightforward decision to run in the longer race.
He holds a strong winning chance in the World Hurdle but would be running for a place in the Champion.
dont agree if the grounds soft,genuinely think hes a major player in that scenario.
as ive said,i dont think oscar stays well enough to beat proper 3 milers in the WH.
as ive said,i dont think oscar stays well enough to beat proper 3 milers in the WH.
Fair enough mate.
Came up the hill well enough last time out on heavy though and as I've said before he convinced his jockey and trainer that he stays the trip. Who are the proper 3 milers you are referring to?
I'm stating the obvious but everybody has their own opinions about where a horse should run and it is best to concentrate on where the trainer thinks he should run. For example, I think Mullins is making a mistake by running Pont Alexandre in the Neptune. That means I will not be backing this fella at the festival although I think he would have the Albert Bartlett at his mercy.
Came up the hill well enough last time out on heavy though and as I've said before he convinced his jockey and trainer that he stays the trip. Who are the proper 3 milers you are referring to?
I'm stating the obvious but everybody has their own opinions about where a horse should run and it is best to concentrate on where the trainer thinks he should run. For example, I think Mullins is making a mistake by running Pont Alexandre in the Neptune. That means I will not be backing this fella at the festival although I think he would have the Albert Bartlett at his mercy.
He hasn't proved hes quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle.
Off the top of my head, he's ran at the top level over 2m twice and came up short twice. (Supreme and Champion).
He's a much better chance in the WH imo, whatever the ground is.
As for his running style, he's never front run. He always sits off the leaders, and don't think that would be any different in a WH or if he ran in the CH.
Off the top of my head, he's ran at the top level over 2m twice and came up short twice. (Supreme and Champion).
He's a much better chance in the WH imo, whatever the ground is.
As for his running style, he's never front run. He always sits off the leaders, and don't think that would be any different in a WH or if he ran in the CH.
Hes a stronger horse now imo than he was 2 years ago.
Hes never contested a championship 2 mile race in testing conditions that will slow down potential quicker horses.I genuinely feel his class,liking for soft and his ability to travel and stay well would give him a good chance in the CH.
No more to be said really,im already repeating myself enough as it is
Monksland,RDS,TB,Bog Warrior are all horses that i think would beat Oscar in a WH.And are all horses that imo will enjoy WH conditions better than Oscar will.
I said before somewhere that despite pulling early on,missing a couple of hurdles,sweating badly and up in the van all the way,RDS still beat Oscar,who had the run of the race,and did not have to really do anything till the end.
That tells me that when it comes to the WH,when he will have more that just RDS to contend with,he will come up short.
Hes never contested a championship 2 mile race in testing conditions that will slow down potential quicker horses.I genuinely feel his class,liking for soft and his ability to travel and stay well would give him a good chance in the CH.
No more to be said really,im already repeating myself enough as it is
Monksland,RDS,TB,Bog Warrior are all horses that i think would beat Oscar in a WH.And are all horses that imo will enjoy WH conditions better than Oscar will.
I said before somewhere that despite pulling early on,missing a couple of hurdles,sweating badly and up in the van all the way,RDS still beat Oscar,who had the run of the race,and did not have to really do anything till the end.
That tells me that when it comes to the WH,when he will have more that just RDS to contend with,he will come up short.
his main target is Aintree though so as they have Darlan et al for the Champion they might as well have a go at the World Hurdle
the going is very unlikely to be soft and in any case he stayed well enough the other day on horrible going and it will never be that bad at the festival
the going is very unlikely to be soft and in any case he stayed well enough the other day on horrible going and it will never be that bad at the festival
judorick
I think this has been Oscar Whisky's main target ever since Big Bucks came out.
It is interesting to note that Mullins is skipping Cheltenham with old foe Thousand Stars in order to prepare for the Aintree Hurdle and clash no.3.
I think this has been Oscar Whisky's main target ever since Big Bucks came out.
It is interesting to note that Mullins is skipping Cheltenham with old foe Thousand Stars in order to prepare for the Aintree Hurdle and clash no.3.
buddeliea
I agree he looks stronger this year but the "proper 3 milers" you are putting up to beat him are soft ground plodders and short of class imo (RDS excluded).
Monksland - Tried 3 miles once and was scrubbed up and pushed along from way out to beat Zaidpour in receipt of 2 lbs on soft ground. Good form?
Tidal Bay - 12yo who had a terrific engine in his day but now lacks the speed to be effective on good ground in hurdle races imo. Has a lot to find on a line through Crack Away Jack.
Bog Warrior - Soft ground plodder who tried 3 miles once beating Zaidpour by 4 lengths in recipt of 4 lbs on heavy ground. Good form?
I agree he looks stronger this year but the "proper 3 milers" you are putting up to beat him are soft ground plodders and short of class imo (RDS excluded).
Monksland - Tried 3 miles once and was scrubbed up and pushed along from way out to beat Zaidpour in receipt of 2 lbs on soft ground. Good form?
Tidal Bay - 12yo who had a terrific engine in his day but now lacks the speed to be effective on good ground in hurdle races imo. Has a lot to find on a line through Crack Away Jack.
Bog Warrior - Soft ground plodder who tried 3 miles once beating Zaidpour by 4 lengths in recipt of 4 lbs on heavy ground. Good form?
Henderson said, on TV at Cheltenham, that his primary target for the season is to win the Aintree hurdle for the 3rd time
It's a bit strange when you think about it that the apparent ability for him to stay to a degree on saturday over 3 miles on very bad ground somehow points to him having a chance over 2 miles in the champion hurdle on soft ground, I would have thought that it would be a negative with regards to that.
Yep. Saw that interview too mate 
I think the Aintree Hurdle had been the big target for this horse last year as Big Bucks was looming large. I could be very controversial by saying his run in the World Hurdle last year was a tune up for Aintree but I expect I would get a hail of criticism.
Put simply, the World Hurdle looks more winnable this season than I can remember for a long time and it wouldn't make sense not to have a horse like Oscar Whisky fully tuned up on the day.
I think the Aintree Hurdle had been the big target for this horse last year as Big Bucks was looming large. I could be very controversial by saying his run in the World Hurdle last year was a tune up for Aintree but I expect I would get a hail of criticism.
Put simply, the World Hurdle looks more winnable this season than I can remember for a long time and it wouldn't make sense not to have a horse like Oscar Whisky fully tuned up on the day.
Couldn't back him to win either race at the festival with regards to the WH, cut it which ever way you want, did he get home, yes, maybe, but even on better ground he is not a strong stayer over 3 miles and on the day there will be something at least that will come up that hill far better than him imo.
Henderson said, on TV at Cheltenham, that his primary target for the season is to win the Aintree hurdle for the 3rd time
was that before BB being out or after?
was that before BB being out or after?
That was last Saturday after finishing 2nd to RDS! I seen it myself! Imo, if OW takes in the WH enroute it is primarily because they believe the horse will be better on better ground and they have the best chance to turn the tables on at least RDS due to the better ground and that one needing soft. I do not agree to the theory OW is better suited to soft, he has won on all types of ground and is a very versatile sort though i do have reserves as to whether he really is as good over 3 miles as he is over 2.5 miles at championship pace!
i say that STS because earlier in the season after OW first race that their primary target was aintree no mention of WH at all, there policy must have been avoid BB at all costs, now they have the opportunity to win £170k prior to aintree... to good to pass up if you ask me
Well all good discussion lads,and as been pointed out it may be to no avail,and he will be trained for Aintree,which makes perfect sense,it is his optimum distance after all..
He has however won 2 aintree hurdles whilst running at the festival as well,so its a strong possibility he will run in the WH if its normal festival ground and the CH if it comes up soft enough,which his owner has intimated at during the season.Then go on to Aintree.
STS,
You are correct that OW is fine on all types of ground,hes a proper genuine racehorse.
Thing is we are talking here about a horse that has got to run at a distance he is not at his best at in March,either 2m or 3m are not his optimum,in between is.Therefore to win either of those races he needs the ground to favour him and hinder others.Hence the talk of soft over the 2m and better ground imo over 3m.
He has however won 2 aintree hurdles whilst running at the festival as well,so its a strong possibility he will run in the WH if its normal festival ground and the CH if it comes up soft enough,which his owner has intimated at during the season.Then go on to Aintree.
STS,
You are correct that OW is fine on all types of ground,hes a proper genuine racehorse.
Thing is we are talking here about a horse that has got to run at a distance he is not at his best at in March,either 2m or 3m are not his optimum,in between is.Therefore to win either of those races he needs the ground to favour him and hinder others.Hence the talk of soft over the 2m and better ground imo over 3m.
I am pretty sure i just said that in my above post and the post i made on Saturday also budd If he turns up, i think i am a backer if the ground is good though, i am sure i have said that also. Reason being, he would have the beating of RDS on better ground as i feel that horse is a worse one on good ground. He needs it soft, he never looked comfortable to me at any stage in the race on Sat, where as OW looked all over the winner. The very fact OW could not go past put simply down to the battling qualities of RDS on his preferred soft ground and class apart from the others! If Geraghty rode OW to as if he got the trip from the outset, i am pretty sure the result would have been the same as in i do not think RDS would have let OW go past him without a fight and the race would have been an even better one.
But
Geraghty came on tv afterwards saying that OW at the 2.5 mile marker did not feel to be going as well as he has in the past at that distance, and with still half a mile to go he looked after him, nursing him into the race as only he knows how and that given those circumstances he was always playing 2nd fiddle to the winner! Given that, i think i have just talked myself into backing him but of course, there is still that small doubt in my mind, and thats championship pace. But will the horse feel like that again twice in a row or will he be properly primed to try and win connections 172k. I think everyone in the right minds knows the answer to that one!
If he turns up, i think i am a backer if the ground is good though, i am sure i have said that also. Reason being, he would have the beating of RDS on better ground as i feel that horse is a worse one on good ground. He needs it soft, he never looked comfortable to me at any stage in the race on Sat, where as OW looked all over the winner. The very fact OW could not go past put simply down to the battling qualities of RDS on his preferred soft ground and class apart from the others! If Geraghty rode OW to as if he got the trip from the outset, i am pretty sure the result would have been the same as in i do not think RDS would have let OW go past him without a fight and the race would have been an even better one.But
Geraghty came on tv afterwards saying that OW at the 2.5 mile marker did not feel to be going as well as he has in the past at that distance, and with still half a mile to go he looked after him, nursing him into the race as only he knows how and that given those circumstances he was always playing 2nd fiddle to the winner! Given that, i think i have just talked myself into backing him but of course, there is still that small doubt in my mind, and thats championship pace. But will the horse feel like that again twice in a row or will he be properly primed to try and win connections 172k. I think everyone in the right minds knows the answer to that one!
What i am eluding to say is, BG said not going as well as in past at the 2.5 mile marker, his optimum trip. Is this a repeat of how he was last year at 3 miles and due to the championship pace, and with BB in the race, this the reason why he finished absolutely drunk as henderson puts it
Maybe its cos the horse is so genuine and he always wants to give his all, and why he finished drunk, after all the did not find anything wrong with him after they got home did they
Maybe its cos the horse is so genuine and he always wants to give his all, and why he finished drunk, after all the did not find anything wrong with him after they got home did they
Apparently he was not right last year in the WH according to his trainer,and i presume he was primed for the race,as was his target for some time.So really have no idea how he will turn up!!
Blarney,
I think you are underestimating the likes of BW,TB and Monksland by describing them as soft ground plodders.
Monksland was running well last year before he was badly impeded in the Neptune on decent ground,and hes a horse that imo is improving for 3m.Tidal Bay has plenty of form on good/soft type going,although he would probably have more chance on soft,a good/soft WH would be ok for him imo.Bog Warrior has run nearly all his races on soft,but i am impressed with him and think hes a player as long as it aint real good ground.
Those that say RDS needs soft ground would do well to remember his neptune run when 2nd to a very good at the time Peddlers Cross on better ground than soft.
I think you are underestimating the likes of BW,TB and Monksland by describing them as soft ground plodders.
Monksland was running well last year before he was badly impeded in the Neptune on decent ground,and hes a horse that imo is improving for 3m.Tidal Bay has plenty of form on good/soft type going,although he would probably have more chance on soft,a good/soft WH would be ok for him imo.Bog Warrior has run nearly all his races on soft,but i am impressed with him and think hes a player as long as it aint real good ground.
Those that say RDS needs soft ground would do well to remember his neptune run when 2nd to a very good at the time Peddlers Cross on better ground than soft.
He looks in better shape this year than last year imo.
From the Irish "Leopardstown" thread fyi........
keen leader 27 Jan 13 21:33
.....final thoughts on the last 2 days.
12 months ago, irish champion hurdel day was run in appalling conditions, much the same this time.....not ONE festival winner came of the card 12 months ago, despite h fly and boston bob winning easily....i believe winning grade 1s in horrible conditions takes a lot out of horses and they may not recover in time for the festival and they may run flat.
I will boldly predict, that NOT ONE horse you saw running on sunday will win at the festival....the only danger to that statement might be something like Toner D'Oudairies, who elliott could be preparing for a handicap chase, with his prospects determined by whatever uk chase mark he gets.
the most likely festival winner you saw over the weekend remains Reve De Sivola in a very weak division. believe it or not, history proves that it takes real stamina to stay in a fast run 3 mile race, so on better ground i would expect reve to finish a long way ahead of oscar whiskey.
keen leader 27 Jan 13 21:33
.....final thoughts on the last 2 days.
12 months ago, irish champion hurdel day was run in appalling conditions, much the same this time.....not ONE festival winner came of the card 12 months ago, despite h fly and boston bob winning easily....i believe winning grade 1s in horrible conditions takes a lot out of horses and they may not recover in time for the festival and they may run flat.
I will boldly predict, that NOT ONE horse you saw running on sunday will win at the festival....the only danger to that statement might be something like Toner D'Oudairies, who elliott could be preparing for a handicap chase, with his prospects determined by whatever uk chase mark he gets.
the most likely festival winner you saw over the weekend remains Reve De Sivola in a very weak division. believe it or not, history proves that it takes real stamina to stay in a fast run 3 mile race, so on better ground i would expect reve to finish a long way ahead of oscar whiskey.
For followers of pricewise, Tom Segal likes Reve de Sivola each way on soft and Oscar Whisky on good ground.
buddeliea,
I don't see how you can call horses like Monksland and Bog Warrior "proper 3 milers" since each horse has only tried the distance once proving that they are closely matched with Zaidpour. Also, the formbook tells us that Tidal Bay has a lot of ground to make up on a line through Crack Away Jack. There are races for these horses in Ireland in Winter on heavy stamina sapping tracks where most of the field finish legless but Cheltenham offers a different test.
For what its worth, I think Smad Place is decent value at the moment as he was able to capitalise when Oscar Whisky got into a fight with Big Bucks some way from home in last years race and ran on well into 3rd. I don't think that was a fluke and 20/1 is a fair price.
I don't see how you can call horses like Monksland and Bog Warrior "proper 3 milers" since each horse has only tried the distance once proving that they are closely matched with Zaidpour. Also, the formbook tells us that Tidal Bay has a lot of ground to make up on a line through Crack Away Jack. There are races for these horses in Ireland in Winter on heavy stamina sapping tracks where most of the field finish legless but Cheltenham offers a different test.
For what its worth, I think Smad Place is decent value at the moment as he was able to capitalise when Oscar Whisky got into a fight with Big Bucks some way from home in last years race and ran on well into 3rd. I don't think that was a fluke and 20/1 is a fair price.
By watching them mate,they both look to me horses that will improve for the trip,and relish the extra distance,finishing well and extending.
Oscar for me is the opposite.Although he just may have the class to get away with it,but sadly i dont think so.
When looking at potential WH winners i look for horses that i think will relish the trip and stay very well,i think those 2 plus RDS and TB fit the bill.
Oscar for me is the opposite.Although he just may have the class to get away with it,but sadly i dont think so.
When looking at potential WH winners i look for horses that i think will relish the trip and stay very well,i think those 2 plus RDS and TB fit the bill.
This thing about Oscar and last years race is still bugging me.
I am now thinking it was just a simple case of Big Bucks hurting him with his relentless gallop and stamina,he took it up a fair way out and really grinded them.Given OW'S genuineness i just think he ended up giving too much and paid the price.They found nowt wrong with him,he was just plain kn&ckered imo.
Thats the difference between staying and doing it well enough to win at the highest level.
Now we have no BB,so its different,and it just may be that OScar will have enough class to win the race,as i say i sadly dont think so,but i do hope so.
I am now thinking it was just a simple case of Big Bucks hurting him with his relentless gallop and stamina,he took it up a fair way out and really grinded them.Given OW'S genuineness i just think he ended up giving too much and paid the price.They found nowt wrong with him,he was just plain kn&ckered imo.
Thats the difference between staying and doing it well enough to win at the highest level.
Now we have no BB,so its different,and it just may be that OScar will have enough class to win the race,as i say i sadly dont think so,but i do hope so.
I think your reading of last years race is spot on. I remember Ruby saying that he gave Big Bucks a terrible ride meaning he got into a duel with Oscar Whisky too early and it was only because the horse is so good that he still had enough in the tank to fend off a very well ridden Voler La Vedette.
Interesting to see Smad Place stay on into 3rd as he wasn't far behind the pace in that race.
Interesting to see Smad Place stay on into 3rd as he wasn't far behind the pace in that race.
The Stan James Champion Hurdle, in which he was third in 2011, and the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, for which is joint-favourite, are the options for the talented eight-year-old.
The World Hurdle is seen as the more likely option for Oscar Whisky after he was narrowly beaten by Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles at Cheltenham last weekend.
Profiles
Oscar Whisky (IRE)
His trainer Nicky Henderson has an embarrassment of riches in the two-mile Champion Hurdle headed by Darlan, Grandouet and Binocular.
"He's fine after his last race, no problems at all," said Walters.
"The Cheltenham Festival is the next move. We've got five weeks to decide where he goes. First of all we will see how Darlan and others run at Doncaster on Monday.
"There are a number of things to consider. If it dries up it will definitely be the World Hurdle, but if it's soft we will have to see.
"At this stage Cheltenham is too far away. Anything can happen in the meantime, the horse can be lame or anything. Then there's the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles after that which he's won for the last two years."
The chairman of Ffos Las racecourse believes there should be a championship race over that distance for hurdlers.
"He's the best two-and-a-half-mile horse in the country. I will stand up and say that," he said.
"It's a shame there isn't a two-and-a-half-mile race for him at Cheltenham. I think there should be as there are plenty of horses around who could go for it."
The World Hurdle is seen as the more likely option for Oscar Whisky after he was narrowly beaten by Reve De Sivola in the Cleeve Hurdle over three miles at Cheltenham last weekend.
Profiles
Oscar Whisky (IRE)
His trainer Nicky Henderson has an embarrassment of riches in the two-mile Champion Hurdle headed by Darlan, Grandouet and Binocular.
"He's fine after his last race, no problems at all," said Walters.
"The Cheltenham Festival is the next move. We've got five weeks to decide where he goes. First of all we will see how Darlan and others run at Doncaster on Monday.
"There are a number of things to consider. If it dries up it will definitely be the World Hurdle, but if it's soft we will have to see.
"At this stage Cheltenham is too far away. Anything can happen in the meantime, the horse can be lame or anything. Then there's the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles after that which he's won for the last two years."
The chairman of Ffos Las racecourse believes there should be a championship race over that distance for hurdlers.
"He's the best two-and-a-half-mile horse in the country. I will stand up and say that," he said.
"It's a shame there isn't a two-and-a-half-mile race for him at Cheltenham. I think there should be as there are plenty of horses around who could go for it."
If it dries up it will definitely be the World Hurdle, but if it's soft we will have to see.
Thats pretty much how it should be imo.
Thats pretty much how it should be imo.
soft ground is very rare at the Festival though since the (over) draining was installed, you only need a week of dry weather and it will be good going, if we have a dry fortnight between now and the meeting they will be turning on the taps to maintain good to soft as in the last few years
the only way it will be soft is if we get freak weather, the Jet stream moves south, exposing the UK to really wet weather or something like that, so basing judgement on what might happen on soft going is a bit pointless
the only way it will be soft is if we get freak weather, the Jet stream moves south, exposing the UK to really wet weather or something like that, so basing judgement on what might happen on soft going is a bit pointless
bud i think you wasting time thinking he'll run in the CH, if it comes up really soft he wont run at all, if it's better ground it will be WH. the dream is over 
"if it comes up really soft he wont run at all, if it's better ground it will be WH"
Right on the money. IMO.
Right on the money. IMO.
1/5 to run in the W.H
7/1 to run in the c.h
7/1 not to run at all
7/1 to run in the c.h
7/1 not to run at all
Talk most of season has been the CH a possibility on soft ground,and given those latest comments from the owner,it still is.
Until its ruled out,i have hope.
WH is obviously fav now,but until we know for sure what the ground is,its not definite,as the owner has just said.
Until its ruled out,i have hope.
WH is obviously fav now,but until we know for sure what the ground is,its not definite,as the owner has just said.
Darlan's demise may change the thinking a bit, but I doubt it.
the only way it will be soft is if we get freak weather, the Jet stream moves south, exposing the UK to really wet weather or something like that, so basing judgement on what might happen on soft going is a bit pointless
So the weather we've been having over the last 10 months is normal is it?
So the weather we've been having over the last 10 months is normal is it?
Boring seeing this debate everyday on here. He's gonna run in the World Hurdle. And he's gonna beat.
You're right. I do.
Oscar Whisky Champion Hurdle on soft ground says Buddelia
Oscar Whisky Champion Hurdle on soft ground says Buddelia
not just me,people that matter as well have mentioned the possibility,like his owner,trainer and jockey.
thing is, if it is a dry week, they water the going for the first day to make it Gs,S in places so it is not too firm by Friday. With Darlan out who knows what the OWNER is thinking now.
Champion Hurdler my arse no matter what the ground is
He's gonna run in the World Hurdle. And he's gonna beat.
Ballydoyle,
You have made the very categorical statement shown above. I am interested to know what horse(s) you believe will beat Oscar Whisky in the World Hurdle.
Ballydoyle,
You have made the very categorical statement shown above. I am interested to know what horse(s) you believe will beat Oscar Whisky in the World Hurdle.
Blarney,hes on a wind up mate.
Either that or he knows more than the horses connections.
Either that or he knows more than the horses connections.
Ok...I'm an Oscar Whisky fan in an Aintree Hurdle all day long but no previous Champion Hurdler contender has won this in recent years (I think it's last 20 years or thereabouts)
He went into Supreme with an unbeaten record (4 from 4) and got found out. Beat 4 lengths.
The following season he hosed in 2 starts, went to Champion Hurdle and got found out. Beat 6 lengths.
The season after he won 4 from 5, went to World Hurdle and guess what...found out again. Beat 13 lengths.
This season he's cruised in twice then stepped up to 3m and outstayed and beaten by one real World Hurdle contender (Reve De Sivola) in a 10 horse race where the time was 51 second slower than standard.
This horse is a machine over 2m 4f (7 from 8) but at a Cheltenham Festival he has been found out 3 times and over 3m he has ran twice and been beaten twice.
He went into Supreme with an unbeaten record (4 from 4) and got found out. Beat 4 lengths.
The following season he hosed in 2 starts, went to Champion Hurdle and got found out. Beat 6 lengths.
The season after he won 4 from 5, went to World Hurdle and guess what...found out again. Beat 13 lengths.
This season he's cruised in twice then stepped up to 3m and outstayed and beaten by one real World Hurdle contender (Reve De Sivola) in a 10 horse race where the time was 51 second slower than standard.
This horse is a machine over 2m 4f (7 from 8) but at a Cheltenham Festival he has been found out 3 times and over 3m he has ran twice and been beaten twice.
Yes Bally,all that is well known mate.
We pretty much agree on a lot re Oscar,only difference we have really is i happen to think hes a player in a soft ground 2m race at the top level,which to be fair all his connections have said as well.
Add to that that imo hes a better and stronger horse now than 2 years ago.
If you look at it this way,that hes a top horse at 2 and a half,which we agree on,its his proven optimum distance,then to me its a strong possibility that over 4f less on soft ground he must be a threat to horses that may not be so good on that type of ground.
When i look at the betting for the CH,i honestly see only HF to be seriously concerned about if it came up soft.
We pretty much agree on a lot re Oscar,only difference we have really is i happen to think hes a player in a soft ground 2m race at the top level,which to be fair all his connections have said as well.
Add to that that imo hes a better and stronger horse now than 2 years ago.
If you look at it this way,that hes a top horse at 2 and a half,which we agree on,its his proven optimum distance,then to me its a strong possibility that over 4f less on soft ground he must be a threat to horses that may not be so good on that type of ground.
When i look at the betting for the CH,i honestly see only HF to be seriously concerned about if it came up soft.
Ballydoyle,
The reason he didn't win a Supreme or a Champion is that he is not quick enough for 2 miles. Plain and simple. He had form at the minimum distance prior to his festival runs because he was not facing top opposition and was still classy enough to beat inferior rivals over the 2m trip. How would Reve de Sivola do at 2 miles? Also, when you say that no previous Champion Hurdle contender has won this in recent years it is worth remembering that, in his first year out of novice company, triple winner Inglis Drever was campaigned over 2 miles with the Champion as his target only to be switched to the World Hurdle at the last minute.
You mention Reve de Sivola as "one real World Hurdle contender" however, he only beat OW a quarter length in the Cleeve on his favoured heavy ground. Oscar Whisky's best form is on good ground which he got in both his Aintree Hurdles.
It was a fact finding mission in the Cleeve to see if OW stayed and he did enough to convince jockey and trainer that 3 miles should not be a problem. When looking at last years World Hurdle it is obvious that OW paid the price for taking on the imperious Big Buck's too soon. In that rivals absence, OW can be ridden with more restraint and save enough for the hill.
No consider your emphatic statement "He's gonna run in the World Hurdle. And he's gonna beat.".
The reason he didn't win a Supreme or a Champion is that he is not quick enough for 2 miles. Plain and simple. He had form at the minimum distance prior to his festival runs because he was not facing top opposition and was still classy enough to beat inferior rivals over the 2m trip. How would Reve de Sivola do at 2 miles? Also, when you say that no previous Champion Hurdle contender has won this in recent years it is worth remembering that, in his first year out of novice company, triple winner Inglis Drever was campaigned over 2 miles with the Champion as his target only to be switched to the World Hurdle at the last minute.
You mention Reve de Sivola as "one real World Hurdle contender" however, he only beat OW a quarter length in the Cleeve on his favoured heavy ground. Oscar Whisky's best form is on good ground which he got in both his Aintree Hurdles.
It was a fact finding mission in the Cleeve to see if OW stayed and he did enough to convince jockey and trainer that 3 miles should not be a problem. When looking at last years World Hurdle it is obvious that OW paid the price for taking on the imperious Big Buck's too soon. In that rivals absence, OW can be ridden with more restraint and save enough for the hill.
No consider your emphatic statement "He's gonna run in the World Hurdle. And he's gonna beat.".
Inglis Drever was a warrior found loads off the bridle,just whats required to win a world hurdle,i don't see that in Oscar Whisky
Different types of horses jasey, no doubt. Both Champion Hurdle contenders at one point though which is the comparison I was making.
I've considered it Blarney and he's gonna get beat. And comparing Inglis Drever over 3m to Oscar Whisky over 3m? C'mon man...
Ballydoyle
I've considered it Blarney and he's gonna get beat.
I just find it amazing that you think Reve de Sivola is certain to beat Oscar Whisky on good ground at the festival.
And comparing Inglis Drever over 3m to Oscar Whisky over 3m? C'mon man...
See above response to jasey.
I am not expecting much movement in this market between now and the festival so I am happy to wait for race day.
I've considered it Blarney and he's gonna get beat.
I just find it amazing that you think Reve de Sivola is certain to beat Oscar Whisky on good ground at the festival.
And comparing Inglis Drever over 3m to Oscar Whisky over 3m? C'mon man...
See above response to jasey.
I am not expecting much movement in this market between now and the festival so I am happy to wait for race day.
blarney 07 Feb 13 15:58 Joined: 03 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 33 | Blogger: blarney's blog
Ballydoyle
I just find it amazing that you think Reve de Sivola is certain to beat Oscar Whisky on good ground at the festival.
Sorry - where did I say that?
When i said "one real World Hurdle contender" I meant in that race where Reve won he was really the only serious contender from that particular race that would line up next March with a chance.
What I have said is that Oscar Whisky won't be winning a World Hurdle because he simply doesn't stay 3m around Cheltenham well enough.
It's nothing personal...it's just an opinion based on what I have seen and what the formbook tells me. Here's another one for you...
Soft ground or worse 111112...only 1 loss.
Good to soft or better 141131F1151...4 defeats..3 of them at the Cheltenham Festival.
What makes you think Oscar Whisky is better on good ground or firmer?
Ballydoyle
I just find it amazing that you think Reve de Sivola is certain to beat Oscar Whisky on good ground at the festival.
Sorry - where did I say that?
When i said "one real World Hurdle contender" I meant in that race where Reve won he was really the only serious contender from that particular race that would line up next March with a chance.
What I have said is that Oscar Whisky won't be winning a World Hurdle because he simply doesn't stay 3m around Cheltenham well enough.
It's nothing personal...it's just an opinion based on what I have seen and what the formbook tells me. Here's another one for you...
Soft ground or worse 111112...only 1 loss.
Good to soft or better 141131F1151...4 defeats..3 of them at the Cheltenham Festival.
What makes you think Oscar Whisky is better on good ground or firmer?
jasey 06 Feb 13 22:49 Joined: 22 Jul 08 | Topic/replies: 387 | Blogger: jasey's blog
Inglis Drever was a warrior found loads off the bridle,just whats required to win a world hurdle,i don't see that in Oscar Whisky
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Would tear Oscar's head off going up that hill over 3m
Inglis Drever was a warrior found loads off the bridle,just whats required to win a world hurdle,i don't see that in Oscar Whisky
Rate reply:
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Would tear Oscar's head off going up that hill over 3m
Ballydoyle,
I asked you which horse(s) you believe will beat OW in the World Hurdle. In your next reply, you wrote that Reve de Sivola is "one real World Hurdle contender". I interpreted this to mean that you believe RDS will beat OW at the festival.
Are you now saying that RDS is not a World Hurdle contender? If not then please answer my original question as to which horses you think will beat OW.
With regards to the ground, I think his best runs have been on good. Both Aintree Hurdles (where you have said you are a fan all day long?) and a Champion Hurdle 3rd stand out. Soft/Heavy ground puts an emphasis on stamina and good horses are not able to quicken on the surface. This inconveniences some horses while others thrive. OW has been defeated 5 times in his career. 4th in the Supreme, 3rd in the Champion (reason for defeats - trip too short), 5th in the World (took on Big Bucks too early imo) and 2nd in the Cleeve (fact finding mission to see if he stays but beaten by a better horse on the day). He also fell in a race at Ascot.
Now it comes down to stamina and you think he will not stay and I think he will. Both opinions are fine but he came up the hill well enough to convince Geraghty and Henderson that stamina will not be a problem.
I asked you which horse(s) you believe will beat OW in the World Hurdle. In your next reply, you wrote that Reve de Sivola is "one real World Hurdle contender". I interpreted this to mean that you believe RDS will beat OW at the festival.
Are you now saying that RDS is not a World Hurdle contender? If not then please answer my original question as to which horses you think will beat OW.
With regards to the ground, I think his best runs have been on good. Both Aintree Hurdles (where you have said you are a fan all day long?) and a Champion Hurdle 3rd stand out. Soft/Heavy ground puts an emphasis on stamina and good horses are not able to quicken on the surface. This inconveniences some horses while others thrive. OW has been defeated 5 times in his career. 4th in the Supreme, 3rd in the Champion (reason for defeats - trip too short), 5th in the World (took on Big Bucks too early imo) and 2nd in the Cleeve (fact finding mission to see if he stays but beaten by a better horse on the day). He also fell in a race at Ascot.
Now it comes down to stamina and you think he will not stay and I think he will. Both opinions are fine but he came up the hill well enough to convince Geraghty and Henderson that stamina will not be a problem.
Well I wish you the best of luck. I haven't played in the World Hurdle as yet but there are a couple I am looking at but it is wholly ground-dependant. Reve De Sivola isn't one of them for me unless it is soft or heavy.
I will be surprised if Oscar Whisky makes the top 3 and anticipate another excuse coming from his loyal supporters.
5-1 favourite in a Grade One when twice ran and twice failed over the distance. I think there is better value to be had elsewhere. Try Sir Des Champs....
I will be surprised if Oscar Whisky makes the top 3 and anticipate another excuse coming from his loyal supporters.
5-1 favourite in a Grade One when twice ran and twice failed over the distance. I think there is better value to be had elsewhere. Try Sir Des Champs....
Thanks mate and best of luck with your selections. Can you tell me which horses you are looking at with the ground expected to be good?
I know you think OW will not win but it is easy to say that and not nominate the horse(s) you think are good enough to beat him.
I know you think OW will not win but it is easy to say that and not nominate the horse(s) you think are good enough to beat him.
Owner forks out a grand to keep Oscar in the CH.
ya know it makes sense.
lot of dosh for mr walters i reckon
at least i still have hope!!
ya know it makes sense.
lot of dosh for mr walters i reckon
at least i still have hope!!
still hope,with probable rain to come,all not lost yet.
CH market in turmoil if Oscar is declared on soft ground.
cant see it being soft bud id bet the ground at chelts is nearly good ground now and they are only expecting approx 8 mm over the four or five days which is minimal
just dont know though,do we.
Rain is forecast mate,depends how much we actually get.
Rain is forecast mate,depends how much we actually get.
there has been bits of rain forcast for the last 2 weeks mate but none actually arrived
Latest weather channel forecast for Cheltenham
Wednesday 60% chance of rain
Thursday 60% chance of rain
Friday 30% chance of rain
Saturday 30% chance of rain
Monday 40% chance of rain
Just depends how much my friend
Wednesday 60% chance of rain
Thursday 60% chance of rain
Friday 30% chance of rain
Saturday 30% chance of rain
Monday 40% chance of rain
Just depends how much my friend
metcheck
wednesday 2.5 mm
thursday 1.7 mm
friday 2.5 mm
saturday 0.3 mm
sunday 0.5 mm
monday 1.0 mm
not a lot by the look of it
wednesday 2.5 mm
thursday 1.7 mm
friday 2.5 mm
saturday 0.3 mm
sunday 0.5 mm
monday 1.0 mm
not a lot by the look of it
as you said earlier,they can get it wrong.
we shall have to wait and see if the rain we do get turns the ground soft,or worse!!
think right now its pretty much evens the 2,good/soft or soft.
we shall have to wait and see if the rain we do get turns the ground soft,or worse!!
think right now its pretty much evens the 2,good/soft or soft.
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