Cheltenham Festival
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Oscar Whiskey
Oscar Whiskey
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the ground in last years WH and the ground in the cleeve were totally diferent so the times mean zilch...
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the ground in last years WH and the ground in the cleeve were totally diferent so the times mean zilch...
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The times mean absolutely ZILCH in all national hunt horse racing imo. You just cannot compare from race to race whether it be the same or not. Conditions and the way a race is run sees to that and the past 4 world hurdles have all been contested and won by BIG BUCKS, possibly the best staying hurdler of our generation!
I have never taken times into account, and its stood me pretty well in the 20 years ive followed racing! |
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Loada bollox eh? Agreed. Just run him over 2m4f at Aintree and he wins. No chance in the Champ and doesnt stay well enough for a World. Only a clown would back him
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Agree with jasey I might add
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Got every chance in the CH if ground suits,no doubt.
Agree he dont stay well enough to win the WH. |
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Heavy ground requires stamina and Oscar Whisky ran all the way to the line in the Cleeve Hurdle over 3m and was just touched off by a horse that relishes that going.
Reve de Sivola is a 6 lbs worse horse on good ground whereas it could be argued that Oscar Whisky will improve for better going. It would be an interesting rematch on heavy ground but otherwise Reve de Sivola can be confidently dismissed from calculations come March as the festival is certain to be ran on better ground than the Cleeve. |
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If OW doesn't stay then neither does RDS... People expect OW to just cruise and win every race...? Its a stayers hurdle everything should be off the bridle at some point.
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I think chapman made a very good point about this horse the other day, OW has a run style where he gets on with it and puts horses to the sword some way from home, that's how he does it and is really effective at it, in the world hurdle his whole run style has to change, he'll have to hold onto to him, nurse him into it and try and produce him late on and hope he's got enough gas left....that is not oscar whiskey.
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indeed its not,pretty well put duffy i think
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Didn't you watch the Cleeve Hurdle duffy?
Those were the tactics employed on the day and he was just touched off by current market leader Reve de Sivola. Geraghty and Henderson now know that Oscar Whisky stays well and better ground and a more confident ride will provide a different result come March. Expect Oscar Whisky to be brought into the race at halfway, as others start cracking he will be traveling all over his rivals and will be produced between the last two flights. It will take a really good one to lower his colours imo...... |
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buddeliea 29 Jan 13 17:04 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 7,959 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
Got every chance in the CH if ground suits,no doubt. How do you work that out? |
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Its an opinion based on his liking for soft ground as opposed to others that will line up,his ability to travel well and his obvious staying power up the hill at that distance.
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buddeliea
Wouldn't you rather be taking on the likes of Reve de Sivola and Monksland as opposed to Hurricane Fly and Darlan? Oscar Whisky is a class horse and would not be out of place in a Champion Hurdle however, as he demonstrated he is capable of getting 3m in the Cleeve Hurdle and Big Bucks is out this season it appears to be a straightforward decision to run in the longer race. He holds a strong winning chance in the World Hurdle but would be running for a place in the Champion. |
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dont agree if the grounds soft,genuinely think hes a major player in that scenario.
as ive said,i dont think oscar stays well enough to beat proper 3 milers in the WH. |
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Fair enough mate.
Came up the hill well enough last time out on heavy though and as I've said before he convinced his jockey and trainer that he stays the trip. Who are the proper 3 milers you are referring to? I'm stating the obvious but everybody has their own opinions about where a horse should run and it is best to concentrate on where the trainer thinks he should run. For example, I think Mullins is making a mistake by running Pont Alexandre in the Neptune. That means I will not be backing this fella at the festival although I think he would have the Albert Bartlett at his mercy. |
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He hasn't proved hes quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle.
Off the top of my head, he's ran at the top level over 2m twice and came up short twice. (Supreme and Champion). He's a much better chance in the WH imo, whatever the ground is. As for his running style, he's never front run. He always sits off the leaders, and don't think that would be any different in a WH or if he ran in the CH. |
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Hes a stronger horse now imo than he was 2 years ago.
Hes never contested a championship 2 mile race in testing conditions that will slow down potential quicker horses.I genuinely feel his class,liking for soft and his ability to travel and stay well would give him a good chance in the CH. No more to be said really,im already repeating myself enough as it is  Monksland,RDS,TB,Bog Warrior are all horses that i think would beat Oscar in a WH.And are all horses that imo will enjoy WH conditions better than Oscar will. I said before somewhere that despite pulling early on,missing a couple of hurdles,sweating badly and up in the van all the way,RDS still beat Oscar,who had the run of the race,and did not have to really do anything till the end. That tells me that when it comes to the WH,when he will have more that just RDS to contend with,he will come up short. |
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his main target is Aintree though so as they have Darlan et al for the Champion they might as well have a go at the World Hurdle
the going is very unlikely to be soft and in any case he stayed well enough the other day on horrible going and it will never be that bad at the festival |
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judorick
I think this has been Oscar Whisky's main target ever since Big Bucks came out. It is interesting to note that Mullins is skipping Cheltenham with old foe Thousand Stars in order to prepare for the Aintree Hurdle and clash no.3. |
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buddeliea
I agree he looks stronger this year but the "proper 3 milers" you are putting up to beat him are soft ground plodders and short of class imo (RDS excluded). Monksland - Tried 3 miles once and was scrubbed up and pushed along from way out to beat Zaidpour in receipt of 2 lbs on soft ground. Good form? Tidal Bay - 12yo who had a terrific engine in his day but now lacks the speed to be effective on good ground in hurdle races imo. Has a lot to find on a line through Crack Away Jack. Bog Warrior - Soft ground plodder who tried 3 miles once beating Zaidpour by 4 lengths in recipt of 4 lbs on heavy ground. Good form? |
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Henderson said, on TV at Cheltenham, that his primary target for the season is to win the Aintree hurdle for the 3rd time
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It's a bit strange when you think about it that the apparent ability for him to stay to a degree on saturday over 3 miles on very bad ground somehow points to him having a chance over 2 miles in the champion hurdle on soft ground, I would have thought that it would be a negative with regards to that.
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Yep. Saw that interview too mate
 I think the Aintree Hurdle had been the big target for this horse last year as Big Bucks was looming large. I could be very controversial by saying his run in the World Hurdle last year was a tune up for Aintree but I expect I would get a hail of criticism. Put simply, the World Hurdle looks more winnable this season than I can remember for a long time and it wouldn't make sense not to have a horse like Oscar Whisky fully tuned up on the day. |
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Couldn't back him to win either race at the festival with regards to the WH, cut it which ever way you want, did he get home, yes, maybe, but even on better ground he is not a strong stayer over 3 miles and on the day there will be something at least that will come up that hill far better than him imo.
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Henderson said, on TV at Cheltenham, that his primary target for the season is to win the Aintree hurdle for the 3rd time
was that before BB being out or after? |
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That was last Saturday after finishing 2nd to RDS! I seen it myself! Imo, if OW takes in the WH enroute it is primarily because they believe the horse will be better on better ground and they have the best chance to turn the tables on at least RDS due to the better ground and that one needing soft. I do not agree to the theory OW is better suited to soft, he has won on all types of ground and is a very versatile sort though i do have reserves as to whether he really is as good over 3 miles as he is over 2.5 miles at championship pace!
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i say that STS because earlier in the season after OW first race that their primary target was aintree no mention of WH at all, there policy must have been avoid BB at all costs, now they have the opportunity to win £170k prior to aintree... to good to pass up if you ask me
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Well all good discussion lads,and as been pointed out it may be to no avail,and he will be trained for Aintree,which makes perfect sense,it is his optimum distance after all..
He has however won 2 aintree hurdles whilst running at the festival as well,so its a strong possibility he will run in the WH if its normal festival ground and the CH if it comes up soft enough,which his owner has intimated at during the season.Then go on to Aintree. STS, You are correct that OW is fine on all types of ground,hes a proper genuine racehorse. Thing is we are talking here about a horse that has got to run at a distance he is not at his best at in March,either 2m or 3m are not his optimum,in between is.Therefore to win either of those races he needs the ground to favour him and hinder others.Hence the talk of soft over the 2m and better ground imo over 3m. |
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I am pretty sure i just said that in my above post and the post i made on Saturday also budd
 If he turns up, i think i am a backer if the ground is good though, i am sure i have said that also. Reason being, he would have the beating of RDS on better ground as i feel that horse is a worse one on good ground. He needs it soft, he never looked comfortable to me at any stage in the race on Sat, where as OW looked all over the winner. The very fact OW could not go past put simply down to the battling qualities of RDS on his preferred soft ground and class apart from the others! If Geraghty rode OW to as if he got the trip from the outset, i am pretty sure the result would have been the same as in i do not think RDS would have let OW go past him without a fight and the race would have been an even better one.But Geraghty came on tv afterwards saying that OW at the 2.5 mile marker did not feel to be going as well as he has in the past at that distance, and with still half a mile to go he looked after him, nursing him into the race as only he knows how and that given those circumstances he was always playing 2nd fiddle to the winner! Given that, i think i have just talked myself into backing him but of course, there is still that small doubt in my mind, and thats championship pace. But will the horse feel like that again twice in a row or will he be properly primed to try and win connections 172k. I think everyone in the right minds knows the answer to that one! |
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What i am eluding to say is, BG said not going as well as in past at the 2.5 mile marker, his optimum trip. Is this a repeat of how he was last year at 3 miles and due to the championship pace, and with BB in the race, this the reason why he finished absolutely drunk as henderson puts it
Maybe its cos the horse is so genuine and he always wants to give his all, and why he finished drunk, after all the did not find anything wrong with him after they got home did they |
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Apparently he was not right last year in the WH according to his trainer,and i presume he was primed for the race,as was his target for some time.So really have no idea how he will turn up!!
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Blarney,
I think you are underestimating the likes of BW,TB and Monksland by describing them as soft ground plodders. Monksland was running well last year before he was badly impeded in the Neptune on decent ground,and hes a horse that imo is improving for 3m.Tidal Bay has plenty of form on good/soft type going,although he would probably have more chance on soft,a good/soft WH would be ok for him imo.Bog Warrior has run nearly all his races on soft,but i am impressed with him and think hes a player as long as it aint real good ground. Those that say RDS needs soft ground would do well to remember his neptune run when 2nd to a very good at the time Peddlers Cross on better ground than soft. |
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He looks in better shape this year than last year imo.
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From the Irish "Leopardstown" thread fyi........
keen leader 27 Jan 13 21:33 .....final thoughts on the last 2 days. 12 months ago, irish champion hurdel day was run in appalling conditions, much the same this time.....not ONE festival winner came of the card 12 months ago, despite h fly and boston bob winning easily....i believe winning grade 1s in horrible conditions takes a lot out of horses and they may not recover in time for the festival and they may run flat. I will boldly predict, that NOT ONE horse you saw running on sunday will win at the festival....the only danger to that statement might be something like Toner D'Oudairies, who elliott could be preparing for a handicap chase, with his prospects determined by whatever uk chase mark he gets. the most likely festival winner you saw over the weekend remains Reve De Sivola in a very weak division. believe it or not, history proves that it takes real stamina to stay in a fast run 3 mile race, so on better ground i would expect reve to finish a long way ahead of oscar whiskey. |
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For followers of pricewise, Tom Segal likes Reve de Sivola each way on soft and Oscar Whisky on good ground.
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buddeliea,
I don't see how you can call horses like Monksland and Bog Warrior "proper 3 milers" since each horse has only tried the distance once proving that they are closely matched with Zaidpour. Also, the formbook tells us that Tidal Bay has a lot of ground to make up on a line through Crack Away Jack. There are races for these horses in Ireland in Winter on heavy stamina sapping tracks where most of the field finish legless but Cheltenham offers a different test. For what its worth, I think Smad Place is decent value at the moment as he was able to capitalise when Oscar Whisky got into a fight with Big Bucks some way from home in last years race and ran on well into 3rd. I don't think that was a fluke and 20/1 is a fair price. |
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By watching them mate,they both look to me horses that will improve for the trip,and relish the extra distance,finishing well and extending.
Oscar for me is the opposite.Although he just may have the class to get away with it,but sadly i dont think so. When looking at potential WH winners i look for horses that i think will relish the trip and stay very well,i think those 2 plus RDS and TB fit the bill. |
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This thing about Oscar and last years race is still bugging me.
I am now thinking it was just a simple case of Big Bucks hurting him with his relentless gallop and stamina,he took it up a fair way out and really grinded them.Given OW'S genuineness i just think he ended up giving too much and paid the price.They found nowt wrong with him,he was just plain kn&ckered imo. Thats the difference between staying and doing it well enough to win at the highest level. Now we have no BB,so its different,and it just may be that OScar will have enough class to win the race,as i say i sadly dont think so,but i do hope so. |
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I think your reading of last years race is spot on. I remember Ruby saying that he gave Big Bucks a terrible ride meaning he got into a duel with Oscar Whisky too early and it was only because the horse is so good that he still had enough in the tank to fend off a very well ridden Voler La Vedette.
Interesting to see Smad Place stay on into 3rd as he wasn't far behind the pace in that race. |