Cheltenham Festival
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Oscar Whiskey
Oscar Whiskey
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I'll guess they'll argue he'll stay on good ground now. I think it's obvious he isn't as good over this trip but wouldn't fancy him at 2 miles either.
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I wouldn't be backing him for the WH, yes I can see the argument but I just wouldn't fancy having to sit and watch him having to come and win it that way...far too nervy for me.
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Well,trainer obviously has a point about last years WH,cos he certainly stayed a lot better today!!
Problem now for me is they will probably go WH if they take in the festival,only chance ive got of having him in the CH is if its really soft,but then we knew that anyway. At least i took 6 with the VC offer this morning,and to be honest i was looking at the Ryanair and Jewson for candidates to back with my free bet!! Think if he runs in WH ive done my dough,but at least i will have my fav horse running for me,and could not handle him winning without cheering him on. Proper genuine lovely horse though,whatever happens.  |
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I am a massive OW fan, but listening to what BG and NH (especially BG) had to say then to Claire, i wont be backing him for Chelters but will have it all on at Aintree instead! Small chance he wont be turning up at Chelters now, ok i know, very small but still a small doubt.
Reve De Siv and/or Monksland for me now in WH! Though tbh i wouldn't want to be backing either antepost at this stage! Reve needs it soft and every yard of the 3 miles where as 8/1 monksland is tempting but have seen no news on him as to where he is being sent to next  |
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Looks a weak race this year tbf, Last years runners in this race not showing the same form this year, plenty of the market favourites look to be better on soft. I actually think OW could be my pick if it is good ground. Soft ground throws it wide open.
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SEATHESTARS....NO1-read report from trainer of Monksland last week and he going straight tothe festival without another run
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That's assuming Thousand Stars is giving it a miss this year. He's a huge price if he's going for it.
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Yep,Monksland putting his feet up while RDS and OW slug it out.
Advantage to the Irish imo,Bog Warrior looked pretty good as well other day. |
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thought he stayed well in that ground, has better gears than the winner, i can see the result being reversed on better ground
"Well,trainer obviously has a point about last years WH,cos he certainly stayed a lot better today!!" are you convinced now budd???? |
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Not convinced he has a better chance in the WH than the CH on soft ground.
I am more convinced he stays 3m now,but unsure he will stay well enough to win the WH. He was the best horse today,and had he stayed better surely would have won.He had the run of the race whilst the winner pulled at the start,sweated badly,missed a couple of hurdles,and was up with the pace all the way. And still Oscar could not win. |
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I fancy Quevega will beat them all if they decide to go this route with her.
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On good ground i fear we will have the exact same result as last year with OW after what BG said. He said that he was not having the same usual feel from him at the top of the hill with still that final half mile to go. He said the horse seemed to genuinely not want to go any further but the horse being the horse he is he tried his heart out and just failed. On good, over 3 miles again, am not so sure his stamina will hold out.
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I no that sounds well silly, how would a horse not go better on good than in mud like today, but on mud they do go that bit slower. In WH at championship pace i fear OW will finish legless again!
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i think there run him in champ hurdle be a good prep race for aintree, after what barry said think they would be daft to run him over 3 again esp if its soft
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that was truly testing ground and think he stayed well IMO. He would have the beating of the winner on better ground and when connection watch the race back they'll come to the same conclusion.
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Tidal Bay would have had time to stop and have a castella in todays race
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I'm not convinced he will run at Cheltenham, unless it's in a heavy ground Champion Hurdle. He won't win a World Hurdle, whatever the ground.
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TB looks the bet to me at the moment, even accounting for the slight set-back, he'll only run in the GC if it's really bad ground,if he was a guaranteed starter he'd be clear fav. now wouldn't he? and I think he's very very likely to go for it.
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RDS has won on good ground,and will improve for todays run,folly to asume OW will reverse
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why will he improve for todays run....
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Just got back from Cheltenham,and this was by far the most informative for the festival imo.
It answered questions in that I think Oscar will go to the World Hurdle and Reve is the real deal when it comes to staying hurdle races. I don't think Reve has really got the credit he deserves for his two hurdle wins, and I couldn't choose between him and Oscar come World Hurdle day. I do expect Oscar to go off much shorter than him though. Oscar is the class horse, with the high profile connections, whereas Reve is a more workman like horse from a much less fashionable stable. I think Oscar will get backed into favouritism, and Reve will drift. As I said, I can't split them, but I think we've seen the World Hurdle winner today. |
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You couldn't be sure Tidal would have won the hurdle race easy. He did only beat Crack away Jack last time so would have been interesting. Im sure he would have won the chase race though.
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Lets not forget everyone; Kentford Grey Lady was a fairly close third and closing down on them up the run in. Johnson thought Reve de Sivola wasnt at his best today. I think an attempt to go for the Stayers on any ground with Oscar will backfire. Form over 2 miles is leagues better than this.
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giving the horse a stone in that ground is by no means bad. Kentford is probably the 2nd best mare currently in training. Better ground and you will deffo see a reverse in positions. I noticed OW didn't jump as well as he can which i get the feeling was something to do with the ground and I think if Barry had perhaps asked for a big one at the last instead of slowing up he'd of won.
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Think the 2 irish horses are going to prove formidable opponents,and their connections would have enjoyed watching Oscar and Reve slugging it out on that ground up the hill.
Think they would be my most likely winners right now. |
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I'd have to disagree with you on this one Budd, and say that I'd be very surprised if the winner did not come from England, with those two yesterday and Tidal Bay in the mix.
The two Irish ones have beaten Zaidpour, by your own admissions, probably a non stayer over 3m. Although badly hampered in the Neptune, Monksland was beaten a long way last year, and although that is probsbly short of his best trip, I thought it was a fantastic ride by Carberry who left it really late. I don't think that was a particularly strong race either, with exposed horses like So Young, Whatuthink and a well below par Volder La Vedette finishing behind. After that race Carberry said the ground was much too soft, so if it comes up good at Cheltenham, I couldn't have him finishing ahead of Oscar Whiskey. I'd put Bog Warrior quite a bit in front of Monksland at the moment, but again it comes down to ground. I think Bog Warrior will need it soft at the least to win a World Hurdle, and with no course form i think his price is plenty short enough at around 10/1. |
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* I thought it was a fantastic ride by Carberry who left it really late
Sorry, referring to his last race in Ireland over 3m. |
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Dont be underestimating these 2 mate.
Yes i do think Zaidpour is a non stayer at top level,but these 2 aint,far from it. Think they will enjoy WH conditions and will relish the task a lot more than Oscar. Yes ground plays a part,but we dont know what that will be yet. RDS and TB(if he runs)are big threats cos they stay so well,but ground could be important to them as well. Another that would come into it is Cape Tribulation,if they decided to go for it,think they should to be honest. Nothing to do with my 130 on him  |
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Is Rite of Passage intended to run in this? I completely forgot about him but his flat peroformances would indicate he's improved since we last seen him over hurdles. His hurdles form was closely matched with Reve even back then.
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no mate staying flat i read
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Ah thank you! Shame :-(
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Very impressed with Oscar Whisky's 2nd place in the Cleeve.
I think he hated the ground and showed great attitude to fight to the line. It now looks like Geraghty and Henderson are in agreement that the horse will stay the trip and I expect he will be ridden differently in the World Hurdle. It is also worth noting that Geraghty and Richard Johnson both said in seperate interviews that Reve de Siviola may be ground dependent. This is not to say that he doesn't have form on good ground but that he is much better on soft/heavy. |
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Where did u see that?^
Johnson said after the race yest that RDS didnt like the ground straight after on C4 |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBP1pzB0Tak
At around 1.59.45 |
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I'm not having OW hating the ground given his previous form on it. Not staying the trip as well as he may be able to on better ground I'll give you.
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BJG
Just watched your link now. It's hard to make out his comments but I think he said the trainer thought he wouldn't like the ground before the race and Johnson himself thought he didn't enjoy it as much as Ascot which was also heavy. |
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Oscar is fine on soft ground over lesser distance cos that distance hes comfortable with.
I dont think hes comfortable at 3m on any ground. Yes,he could get away with it and still win,but trouble is hes up against horses that will relish the trip. Still hoping they will see sense and run him in the CH if its soft,and skip festival otherwise. Thats if they still see Aintree as HIS race this season. |
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geraghty said yesterday that OW didnt feel right after 2 miles, and didnt feel right after 2 and a half miles, in ground he should have excelled in, kinda makes his second on saturday even better, he also said the trip will not be a problem come march
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I can't see Oscar getting home in a faster run race, I hope that Bog Warrior can turnout to a bit special as the race looks very week this year....
(If he were mine, I'd run Simonsig in it) |
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OW beat in world hurdle you get an excuse.
OW beat in cleeve and you get another excuse,he couldn't go past RDS and this race was run 48 seconds slower than world hurdle,so its not conclusive that he stays this trip. I don't understand how he needs soft ground in a champion hurdle,but over 3 miles he needs good ground |