Exactly mate,long way to go and a fair few to see yet.
Just depends on whether you think his price is worth it now.
Could look big come March,but then again......

he will be even more impressive on good ground ,if his jumping is better than yesterday on good ground he might end up going for the champion instead of the arkle.

What's your take on the RSA WC? Willie is talking up Boston Bob as the best novice he's ever had, strong words seeing as he had Sir Des last year! I think Fingal and Dynaste will go jewson. I like Ambion Wood.

Hi Smart Predator.  The RSA is looking a very competitive renewal this year, but as you say, a couple could go down the Jewson route, like a few potential Arkle runners.

While it doesn't look like it could have a superstar in it, like a Simonsig, I think the overall quality of the race has more strength in depth at the moment than what the Arkle is looking like.

I've never really taken to Fingal Bay over hurdles, or his chase debut to be honest.  I've said before I'm not too keen when a horse only does enough to win, and idles in front; it's tricky because you'd have to produce him late to win and could easily get chinned on the line.  I also like to see a horse extend and go and win his race, but they're all different, so as long as he keeps winning it won't be a problem.

I think the Pipes may have learnt something from last year, with Grands Crus, where if they have nay doubts about Dynaste staying, I too think they'll send him to the Jewson, because it'll be the safer option.  However, he did seem to get every yard of the 3 miles when winning the Fixed Brush hurdle at Haydock, with Synchronised a long way behind.

Of the two Mullins horses I'd be more inclined to back Champagne Fever at the moment, but like Houblon Des Obeaux, he will only be a 6 year old.  Although it is quite ironic that the last 6 year old to win it was Florida Pearl, and Champagne Fever looks like he is taking the exact same route, skipping hurdling.  I haven't made my mind up about Boston Bob yet, so I'll wait to see him out again, although that's some statement by Mullins considering some of the novices he's had.

Sire Collonges didn't set the world on fire as a hurdler, but is from a very powerful stable, and looks at the moment, to be Nicholls' number 1 contender, so has to be respected.

Definitely early days, and haven't had a bet, but it's a race that's really interesting me at the moment.

Well Chief, I have read that Champagne Fever has various entries but if Boston Bob is as good as he thinks will he not wait a year to go chasing with CF? Or do you know something we don't? ;)

Good views anyway good luck

I think Overturn will go the same way as Peddlers Cross did last year - impressive in small fields early season but won't figure come March and the Henderson beast will be different gravy anyway - IMHO.

I didn't see the race (doing family stuff) - just the highlights on C4. But it looked like a glorified schooling session. He went off in front, never saw another horse and was neevr pushed because he beat horses who we already knew were massively inferior. We've seen he can jump a fence in his own time - impressively - but that's miles away from a competetive race where horses can challenge him for speed and put his jumping under pressure. Yesterday told us very little about his Arkle chances.

They were worried about racing simonsig over two miles as a hurdler because he can be a bit casual, well, in overturn , a horse that hardly anything could go with over hurdles on his day and who has just showed he's equally as flashy and quick over fences, he is going to put maximum pressure on anything is races against and there won't be any room for casualness in his opponents.

Simonsig hasn't even raced at 2 miles under rules but this season is ultimately going to have to travel through his races flawlessly at a pace he's yet to have been asked to.

Overturn beat not much but the performance visually was hugely impressive and although it is yet to be seen if he will match the figures he put up over hurdles, most importantly at the moment his performance looked to the untrained eye to be one where the horse himself was enjoying the new experience every bit as much as he enjoyed jumping hurdles giving him every chance to be able to match his level of hurdling to fences, which means he's at a very high level just to start with.

I am with strontium on this. Never under any pressure. Schooling session. A good session but needs to be viewed in that context. I am quite sure Simonsig and Captain Conan look just as smart schooling at 7Barrows. I really hope they do !

SS is a freak. Overturn is just a very good horse.

The problem (for us) is Overturn is unlikely to be put under too much pressure before the Festival, so it becomes a guessing game. (Unless he meets Simonsig at Christmas, but McCain may have learned his lession there).

Hi Budd - sorry, I was a bit loose with my argument.

I think we do know pretty much how good Overtun is - he's now run 38 times! He's almost Champion Hurdle class and just below group class on the flat. It would be a surprise if he improves significantly for fences but no surprise if he runs to a similar level.

I agree we don't know how good either O or SS will ultimately be over fences, but I firmly believe SS has more potential. My point really was that something is very likely to get O off the bridle at some stage this season. That hasn't happened with SS yet over fences - but that is very much the exception rather than the rule, so not a good way to judge horses imo. It's like judging every Gold Cup winner by Kauto Star - most of the time you'll be disappointed.

As for Simonsig, you are correct. What I should have said was "Unless, for example, he meets Simonsig at Christmas...". Here the point I wanted to make was that Overturn may well not have a hard race before the Festival. McCain put up Peddlers Cross v Sprinter Sacre last winter, but he may be more careful this season. I shouldn't have picked out Simonsig - I meant Overturn could well dodge all the other top 2 m novices until March.

strontium -hes almost champion hurdle?
he was second in the champion hurdle and time wise  his time on ground softer than ideal was the best of the day by a long way on saturday.

Yes, I meant almost CH winning class, not almost up to running in it! I stand by what I said above, but the fact he did it at Sandown is a good point and a bonus.

Latest report is Finians will not run in the Ryanair (either CGC or QMCC)

see Howdi's thread on the season preview last night.

Me too Budd. It's a shame imo people don't rate the Ryanair as highly. They should (again imo), but they don't.

if he was mine id win the ryanair with him.its the race he would have most chance of winning imho.
wont stay 3m2 in a horsebox,afterall this is the horse who they doubted would stay 2.4 as his jumping was so exhuberent.
now he settles well surely the 2.4 would be taylormade

thats very sporting and while i understand and applaud that my take on him running over 2.4 at lpool was fact finding so they could avoid ss this year.
while it may prove i was wrong,i still dont think i was...
fair play to all concerned[perhaps they fancy the forecast,tongue in cheek]

Budd, it's also one of my favourite races. It may not have the top level quality of the QMCC or CGC, but it has more depth than either most years, and there's no doubt it now takes a genuine Group 1 horse to win it.

GCW - isn't the trainer scared of that particular owner? FWIW (very little), I think FR will stay 3 m round Kempton. You never know if a horse will stay 26.5f round Cheltenham at Gold Cup pace until they try.

Finians surprised me so much at the end of last year.  I thought his Arkle was a pretty poor renewal, then he scraped home against Ghizao at Aintree, when Ghizao pretty much threw that race away.  Then last year he nearly lost on his reappearence when he almost fell, and then getting beat by Somersby; I didn't hold too much hope for him at Cheltenham.

Even when he won the QMCC I thought he was slightly fortunate because of how the race panned out.  But after the Aintree run, he completely won me over.  It was the first time I thought he properly stamped his authority on a race and showed the others who was boss, this after smashing into the rails before the race.  He'd now be rated in the top 3 or 4 best national hunt horses in training for me (which imo fwiw are Sprinter, Sizing, Finians and Big Bucks)

I think the Ryanair would be at the mercy of Finians or Sizing if they went for it, and would hope the owner would put them in the race where they had the best chance of winning.  The Ryanair is no second tier race any more, and the quality has improved every year.

Sorry to stray from the Overturn topic, but he could have a live chance in it in 2013!