Cheltenham Festival
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Of all the horses I saw last season, the one I would want to take home with me is Don Cossack. I haven't seen a more impressive bumper horse, and, according to his trainer, this is just a shell of a horse who was marking time in bumpers.
First time out, he won at Naas in the heavy, with Nina Carberry hardly moving as he drew clear of some solid yardsticks to win by 18 lengths over 2m3f.
While wide margin, heavy ground bumper victories can be misleading, his win at Navan next time out was staggering, in that he had to show entirely different qualities. Rory O'Moore had been allowed so much rope by the entire field that he was the best part of a furlong ahead turning into the straight, at which point Nina Carberry set sail. Throughout the final four furlongs he was flat out as he chased a leader who had clearly slipped the field, managing to overhaul him shortly before the line. None of the other horses, all winners, got in a blow.
Finally, last month, a trip to Fairyhouse in a good bumper, where Don hosed up again, putting 17 lengths between himself and the field from the turn into the home straight, with minimal effort required from his jockey. He gave Elsie (runner up) 17 pounds and beat her 17 lengths, which compares favourably with Champagne Fever who beat the same horse into second place on Elsie's only other outing, but gave just 12 pounds, and won by 13 lengths. While form equations are of limited value in bumpers, Don Cossack has an RPR of 146, 4 pounds clear of Champagne Fever, and the latter looks top class.
The two questions Don Cossack need to answer are; is he ground dependent and can he jump?
Given his huge size, I don't imagine he'll ever be asked to race on anything firm, but there seems no reason so far why he should be ground dependent. His best performance, Fairyhouse, was on probably the least soft ground he encountered.
As for his jumping ability, the only obvious concern would be that he may need fences to be seen at his best, as he's unlikely to be the nimblest over hurdles.
Having seen Don Cossack win his first bumper, I decided to back him every time he ever ran. Sometimes you see a horse who takes your breath away and, for me, he is that horse.
First time out, he won at Naas in the heavy, with Nina Carberry hardly moving as he drew clear of some solid yardsticks to win by 18 lengths over 2m3f.
While wide margin, heavy ground bumper victories can be misleading, his win at Navan next time out was staggering, in that he had to show entirely different qualities. Rory O'Moore had been allowed so much rope by the entire field that he was the best part of a furlong ahead turning into the straight, at which point Nina Carberry set sail. Throughout the final four furlongs he was flat out as he chased a leader who had clearly slipped the field, managing to overhaul him shortly before the line. None of the other horses, all winners, got in a blow.
Finally, last month, a trip to Fairyhouse in a good bumper, where Don hosed up again, putting 17 lengths between himself and the field from the turn into the home straight, with minimal effort required from his jockey. He gave Elsie (runner up) 17 pounds and beat her 17 lengths, which compares favourably with Champagne Fever who beat the same horse into second place on Elsie's only other outing, but gave just 12 pounds, and won by 13 lengths. While form equations are of limited value in bumpers, Don Cossack has an RPR of 146, 4 pounds clear of Champagne Fever, and the latter looks top class.
The two questions Don Cossack need to answer are; is he ground dependent and can he jump?
Given his huge size, I don't imagine he'll ever be asked to race on anything firm, but there seems no reason so far why he should be ground dependent. His best performance, Fairyhouse, was on probably the least soft ground he encountered.
As for his jumping ability, the only obvious concern would be that he may need fences to be seen at his best, as he's unlikely to be the nimblest over hurdles.
Having seen Don Cossack win his first bumper, I decided to back him every time he ever ran. Sometimes you see a horse who takes your breath away and, for me, he is that horse.
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Shhhssh, keep him quiet
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Not sure that's possible.......
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nevr heard of him, will have a look.
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nice write up btw.
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Signed in Cyclops. I love this horse.
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He's Irish Cyclops, most English don't even look at our horses till closer to Cheltenham and then prices crash. So he can be kept quiet.
He probably is ground dependent though, Nina thinks so anyway so I'd prefer to get on early at decent price rather than after he hacks up on a couple of soft ground races. |
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Looks a total machine, ive backed him last twice and def impressed.....already looks a chaser imo
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Istabraq - yes, I agree, he looks a magnificent specimen, come what may.
CVB - I have it in my mind that staying trips (or at least trips more than the minimum) will be his bag. What do you think? |
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Agree, he'll get the trip imo based on breeding. It's the ground that worries me. Pandorama for example was solely a soft ground horse and ended up injured running in Gold Cup on quick.
Flemenstar probably won get goodish ground until Chelts unless maybe in Lexus at Christmas. That'd be my worry. SDC for example has won at Cheltenham twice. |
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Sorry wrong thread, was talking about Flemenstar there.
He defo will be stepped up in trip RC, but I'd rather not discuss it as he'll start over 2m and then get loads of supreme quotes. Then I'll nab odds for where I know he'll be going as Elliott said it on twitter when I asked him. Not Supreme anyway. Let's just keep that at that and forget about his target till he runs next season. Prefer to back horses before talking them up. |
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He's Timeform's top rated bumper horse for the season so not wholly under the radar.
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and he's 8-1 to win Supreme so whats's the shhhhh comment!!
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Blimey, those two facts surprise me. He looked quick but more of a stayer to me. Then again, this time last yr I felt sure Simonsig was going to be a stayer so....
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Don't think Supreme will be on the cards, but nor do I think they'll see him as needing 3 miles. The way he's quickened clear of the field twice suggests he has plenty of pace. The Neptune will be his race but time will tell if there's any attractive odds on offer.
Yes, CV, he could be ground dependent, and the trainer shrugged when I asked him, but you know what they say about true class horses........ How many real top notchers aren't adaptable? |
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I agree cyclops, he may get the good ground fine, but we'll only find out at Cheltenham. He's a class act anyway.
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Doing a little further research on the form of his bumpers, and its rock solid.
First win 2nd: Carrig Millie. Received 10 lbs, beaten 18 lengths. Went on to win a hurdle race. RPR 124 3rd: Mount Colah. Received 3 lbs, beaten 21 lengths. Went on to win 1 bumper and 2 hurdles. RPR 131 Second win 2nd: Rory O'Moore. Gave 3 lbs, beaten 1.5 lengths. Only one whose form doesn't stack up, but, given the way the race was run, described above, safely ignored as a form comparator. Still won a bumper and RPR 126. 3rd: Bridget's Pet. Level weights, beaten 14.5 lengths. Won a hurdle race and achieved an RPR of 144 twice. 3rd win 2nd: Elsie. Received 17 lbs, beaten 17 lengths. Easily won only subsequent race (bumper) by 7.5 lengths and, as above, beaten noticeably less by Champagne Fever on initial outing. 3rd:Gold Ability. Received 10 lbs, beaten 18.75 lengths. Ran 211 over hurdles after, with an RPR of 135. 4th: Morning Royalty. Received 3 lbs, beaten 19.25 lengths. Second in subsequent bumper. RPR 128 Nearly every horse he has beaten into the places, most of them thrashed, have shown extremely solid form before and after. If you take one look at him, you would have to hope that bumpers are a mere warm-up for what's to come. |
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25-1 with stanjames for the Neptune hurdle isn't a bad price if you fancy him to go down that route!!
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Stanjames will let you have £2 e/w!
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hes very good ,a proper horse ,hes only 4 but he is 17 hands and he is going to be a smasher down the road . we are going to look after him ! he has schooled well and jumps very well ! g.elliott.
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took some of the 25-1. Dont see him being quick enough for the supreme
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http://betting.betfair.ie/sports/horse-racing/gordon-elliott-plans-for-don-cossack-121012-275.html
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Seems to apply that the longer distance novice races at Cheltenham are the preferred options at the moment!
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Thanks for the post by the way dej. Managed to snaffle some 25's too. They must be running a bit scared as have him into 12-1 fav already!
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Anyone know if 16/1 or more is still available anywhere?. Got on here early for some 20's etc, but wanting more on. Tried to open an account with Stxn James but gave up after 4 attempts and probably wouldn't accommodate to much anyway. Anyone on here happy to put up around 18?
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I got 16/1 this morning with Stan James but guessing thats gone. No one else offering a market on Oddschecker
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7/1 with Hills to win any race at the Festival gives an option,and it could be a good idea to cover any Neptune stake by taking a bit of that as insurance.
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Entered in a 2 mile maiden on Sunday at Navan. This will hopefully be the start of something special. 12/1 freely available for the Neptune at present.
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Starts off today. Two worthy ooponents who are race fit nut I'd certainly be hoping he's a cut above them.
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,
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Have already lumped on at biggish prices for the Neptune, but Hills are still offering 7/1 on him winning any race at the Festival which is a nice cover bet just in case they re-route him to the Sprume or Albert Bartlett.
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This is the problem could end up in any of the three novice hurdle events.
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No chance he'll be in the AB imo.
Supreme is possible if it stays really wet but I'd say 80-90% sure to be the Neptune. Laddies still going 14/1 for the Neptune if you want to risk it.  |
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Going for 2m4f Novice Hurdle at Navan in December next, Neptune looks most likely to me
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Nice today good start 25-1 looks ok at the minute
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ill give you 1-10 he ends up in the neptune brave prediction !!!!
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As per my May 4th post, cant see any doubt doubt it will be the Neptune. Wont take on flat types over 2 miles, nor does he show any sign of needing to go 3 miles. "He'll be a 3 miler on time" said his trainer. Only if something goes wrong might he take the longer option but, in that case, he probably wont be as good as some of us hope and think.
Thought he did it just as all concerned would have hoped today. Nice, easy first run, but the runner up is no slouch and even the bare form looks pretty good. I'd imagine he'll run at Christmas, then once more and then off to the Neptune. The trainer keeps stressing they wont abuse him, but equally sure they wont give up the option of a Neptune winner if all goes well betweeen now and then. Still pinching myself that 14/1 is still on offer and the piggy bank is getting thinner each day. SJ, how much did you get on at 25/1 (if thats not classified). Thought I was quick out of the blocks but, other than a few shrapnels of 20's on here, haven't been able to beat 14/1. |
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unclepuncle 16 Nov 11 14:53
Don Cossack is the Irish novice hurdler I'm most looking forward to seeing (not in any of the betting lists for Cheltenham and may not there go this year). Looked an absolute machine in his bumper last month  Just in case anyone thought I might have been aftertiming I started my Don Cossack fan club over a year ago.  |
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ive heard it all before cyclops p[al yr a braver man then me.
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unclepuncle, are you Wyn Evans in disguise?
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