Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
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This time last year, Long Run did n't get up the hill.
On the basis of two runs at the track. SS has had one. |
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I would also not read too much into the fact that the trainer has not run him on undulating tracks other than at the festival either
nor would i mate. |
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I know it is a page back, but Masterminded is bang on with his reading IMO
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Very interesting...
My main concern in regards to Sprinter Sacre is exactly what R.Carver is eluding to but I see it in a different way...he pulled very hard in the supreme and what have they done to rectify this annoying trait???nothing to my eye...which still means the problem remains... His first 2 chases have been very non educational events with him being allowed his head and being able to free wheel at will... The problem I have and have had all season and that is the horse hasn't been restrained and thus not educated to settle. By allowing the horse to do this in relation to the way he will have to be ridden at Cheltenham?? he is going to need a hold up ride and how fired up will he get?? and thus concerns will still remain for me, nothing to do with the hill just don't like it in any horse as expending valuable energy...Saturday he will be restrained and we may learn more but will this be to little to late?? time will tell... I will add one thing though I do think when this horse becomes fully settled which time will heed, I do believe he is going to be a top class chaser and one to really look forward to...he may win the arkle but because of my own concerns I can't consider taking 9-4... Don't know what they will do with menorah but will be surprised if he lead, would love to see the blinkers go on him?? I see Cue Card leading but have my reservations about him saturday to get out the way first...don't like the look of it...he has had an easy lead his last 2 races and me personally think he could be in for a rude awakening out of novice company in the game spirit...big test for both horses for me and the prices are very tight... |
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he is a very powerfully free moving sort, who obviously likes to get on with things. he is very keen but in his 2 races this year the opposition haven't been good/quick enough for him to get a lead, and thus help him settle in behind runners
maybe moving into open company he might get that this weekend i dont think Geraghty will have far off the pace in the arkle anyways |
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When he won at Doncaster he was the only winner that day who's time was UNDER the standard. Barry G feels this horse is going to be the most important 2m chaser for the next 3-4yrs and maybe the best he has ridden since Moscow flyer. Whenever N Henderson talks about him he can't keep the smile of his face. This horse is special and WILL be the next horse to do the Arkle Queen Mother double. After he hacks up on Sat all the non believers will have to agree.
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5/4 does look big for the Game Spirit
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I wrote an article on a similar point of view and the characteristics he seems to share with Rubi Light who is by the same sire. The article is below, in full...
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When Rubi Light passed the line some eight lengths behind Synchronised on Wednesday afternoon my immediate thought was that perhaps he just isn't up to Grade 1 class and the race he took last time was a weak one.
However, on further inspection I think it is unfair to blame either that or the trip, but the ground. To my eye he ran an identical race to that he produced in the Ryanair. Once again, he settled nicely towards the front and jumped immecably. Turning out of the back straight he was one of the last off the bridle before being outpaced and plugging on at only the one pace. My prerace opinion was that the step up in trip would iron out this problem but it did not one bit. The key to Rubi Light is his big mid race move, which, on softer ground is far more effective. On quicker ground the opposition find it much easier to keep tabs on him and then he is always liable to be done for speed by one at the end. Over any distance. For this reason, I think he is going to be liable over any distance in a Grade 1 on quick ground. It could be argued that Denman was a similar type and he needed softer ground to be able to get his opposition "at it" midrace. Sprinter Sacre shares many characteristics with Rubi Light. This is of course down to the fact that they share the same sire, Network. They are both stunning horses to look at and are built for a fence. They jump exhuberently and have a high cruising speed. So what does this mean for Sprinter Sacre? My gut feeling is that Sprint Sacre is likely to suffer from the same problem that Rubi Light has in top class races on quick ground, especially at Cheltenham. Being outpaced in the final few furlongs by something with a bit more toe. Looking at the Supreme Novices last year Sprinter Sacre ran an idential race to the two Rubi Light runs that I have already mentioned. He cruised just behind the leaders before taking it up three out. Coming around the bend he was going better than anything and he traded at 1.31 on Betfair. Once again the wheels fell of and he could only keep on at one pace. However, it is hard to say that he didn't stay, as he still plugged on to finish ahead of Cue Card, but he was just liable to two horses which had a bit more toe. My initial instinct that day was to put it down to experience or lack thereof. However, there have been previous occasions when he has not been able to quicken up as expected. Both times at Ascot on his debut and his hurdles debut. There have been excuses for those two runs put forward, but linked with the Supreme and the characteristics that Rubi Light has shown I think there may be more to it than that. The majority of Network's stock race in France, so they do not encounter this problem on quick ground. On Wednesday Peddlers Cross was playing catch up as soon as the first fence after a bad mistake. Barry Geraghty took up iniative and set a strong pace and never let his rival back in the race. Peddlers Cross is obviously far more capable than this race showed and he will be a much tougher opponent come March. So how can the Henderson yard counter this potential problem? The obviously conclusion is to try and set a strong pace come March and have the race won early on before finishing pace becomes important. Will they do this? I don't think so. Cheltenham is a much more testing track than Kempton and I expect them to hold on to him a bit longer for a few reasons. Firstly I think they see him as an out and out two miler but the Arkle is usually won by a horse that stays a bit further than two miles, so they will be keen to not make too much use of him. Also Wednesday was the first time he has ever front run in eight starts, so I think it is hard to take too much out of the tactics employed that day. Finally, I think connections will be wary of what happened with a similar type, Finian's Rainbow, last year, making all before being collared on the run in. And then even if they do decided to front run, I think there is still one big problem with the course, the layout of it. On quick ground it is unlikely Sprinter Sacre will be able to chalk up a big lead mid race, meaning that when the race in earnest starts down the hill he is unlikely to be too far in front of his rivals. As his rivals freewheel down the hill behind him they will be able to fill up on oxygen and it is my opinion, that at least one will be able to find that extra gear off the bridle and come up the hill quicker than him. Al Ferof did last year and both Menorah and Peddlers Cross have come up in front before. For these reasons I would be very suspect of his Arkle chances at this stage and the 5/2 available makes no appeal with Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Al Ferof all looking to line up against him. The combined price of Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof is 11/4 and I would much rather have that duo on my side at a larger price. |
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^ Very interesting and well conceived piece, although I have slightly different opinions on this one.
I must admit I am a real Finian's fan, and for that reason, what I am about to say could be clouded. I believe that he should have won the Arkle but it was Geraghty not kicking on soon enough that did for him. Tanking down the hill he had them all at it, especially the winner, but waited and waited and waited, and allowed the chasers to gain momentum. I honestly think if he had given Finian's a kick in the belly and gone all out for home coming down that hill that he would have hung on (I actually think it would have been relatively comfortable too). So, relating this to the Sprinter Sacre angle, this is what I think. I am dead against Sprinter for the Arkle based purely on the price, as I think the depth in this race is truly exceptional for a novice event. I feel that any of the top four or five could win if running to the best of their ability on the day and for that reason, although Sprinter looks a superstar, I think he is too short in the betting. As someone who is taking him on (with Cue Card at the moment, but maybe with one or two more come the day), I would be very happy to see Geraghty holding on to him coming down the hill. If he is tanking at that stage, which, to be honest, I fully expect him to be, I will be very worried from my own perspective if Geraghty grabs hold of him and kicks clear at that point. I don't think anything will mow him down if he takes three or four lengths out of them at that point, and I do think he is very probably capable of doing that, In an odd way, I think this debate is morphing into a 'will he, won't he' jockey angle, rather than a 'will Sprinter get up the hill' one that I was asking a few weeks ago. It represents a tough task for Geraghty, because he is under immense pressure and won't want to repeat the ride McCoy gave this one in the Supreme while also avoiding a late heartbreak that he suffered when being too cool on Finian's in this race 12 months ago. Balls of steel will be needed but he is a top jock and I'd probably be happier with him on my bet in any Festival race than anyone else. This is going to be a truly sensational race to watch, and I feel very privileged to be able to see it live. |
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As a punter, I should add that my greatest pet peeve in terms of jockeyship is watching your horse going better than anything else in a race but not taking advantage of it at that point in time. In 90% of cases, at least at championship level, horses do come back at you even if they are in trouble at a given point, and it just seems crazy not to steal a few lengths when your own horse is going that much better than the opposition.
In such a brilliant Arkle, I feel that whoever rides the best on the day will probably be on the winner, rather than the best horse necessarily taking home the prize. Would also be fascinating if Bog Warrior bolts up at the weekend and they elect to let him take his chance and blaze off in front, setting a really strong pace as they know he gets further and can go a great clip. He is the potential fly in the ointment for me. |
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totally agree about Rubi Light - needs very soft ground and won't be winning the Ryan Air on typical festival going
will now watch to see if Sprinter Sacre shows the same tendency but I do think he has more ability than Rubi Light |
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Giggsy, SS's time at Doncaster was ok but wasn't remotely special. According to the more accurate Raceform speed ratings it was 3L per mile faster than the next fastest race on the card, or abt 7lbs. That was on a card entirely made up of class 4 and 5 events!
Just to put in perspective; SS ran 3L per mile faster than some other class 4 races when beating a Hexham winner Bog Warrior ran 10L per mile faster than Big Zeb, Noble Prince and Forpadytheplasterer when beating the subsequent Irish Arkle winner Flemenstar at Navan |
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I don't wanna get into a "this rating is more reliable than that" argument
but just for comparison Topspeed ratings has the Doncaster run by SS on 146 and Bog Warrior with a lifetime best Topspeed over fences of 116 so there are plenty of ways to interpret the form and no one can say this or that is correct/incorrect - it will become evident which is more significant in the fullness of time I vote for the Topspeed ratings myself, but then I have been using them for 30+ years (they were Stopwatch in the old Sporting Life and they have a very long history - DAve Edwards has been doing them all that time too) and therefore i rate SS higher than Bog Warrior |
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I think Rubi Light has ran well enough the twice he's encountered Good/Soft ground to think those pigeonholing him as a one trick pony who needs bottomless ground are a little wide of the mark.
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yes "well enough" is right but we are talking red hot Grade 1 races and there will be horses that really act and quicken on the type of going we get at the Festival
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Judo, raceform speed ratings are hugely superior. Stopwatch ratings were very good 30 years ago but are completely awful now, or do you really believe that Synchronised ran 120 lengths slower than his RPR rating in the Lexus?
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I said I won't get into an argument
I will just say I have won vast sums of money using Topspeed ratings - it is a matter of knowing how to interpret when they are significant... and either a rating IS or IS NOT significant. When you work that out then it all falls into place |
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I think he's an improved horse Judo.Last years run in the Ryanair on good ground to be beaten 3 lengths by a horse with an exceptinal record at the Cheltenham festival as a six year old novice was a almighty performance in my book.
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what I mean is you can't look at one rating that is spurious and then mark all the ratings as spurious - it don't work like that. You have to look at each rating and judge it - I certainly don't take every rating at face value
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Just playing devil's advocate to an extent here, but interested to know what you speed ratings merchants have to say about this.
If two sets of well-regarded speed rating providers can come up with such different interpretations, does this not suggest relying on either is potentially a big pitfall in your reasoning? When, realistically, 2-3lb superiority is probably what wins most championship races at the Festival, how useful is it to use speed ratings to suggest one horse is a bit quicker on entirely different ground, at an entirely different track, and against different numbers of runners in races run at completely different tempos? Surely watching a race 3-4 times and seeing how horses recover from mistakes, quicken when asked, respond for pressure etc, will always tell you more than speed ratings. Of course I completely respect anyone who makes this game pay, but personally my punting and trading has been far more lucrative since I gave them up and used my eyes by watching races in far more detail than I once did. I accept that speed ratings are very useful in some cases, and a part of the puzzle in any race, but I think their greatest use is when they show a hotpot to have consistently run average times (and therefore that it might be over-rated). There are so many variables in jump racing that I really feel their worth is minimal, but as I say, they must be making a difference for you good folk so good luck to you all. |
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No tom, because I realised a couple of decades ago that the Stop watch (and in those days split second) ratings used flawed methodology. Back then I started using the superform fast or slow calculations against standard. They didn't give speed ratings but was easy to work out which form ratings should be adjusted up or down. They were good for quite a few years but then fell into the trap of not updating standard times regularly enough. At that point I did my own for a while using the Mordin standard times as a starting point but then a few years ago discovered Split Second had been radically updated to produce speed ratings in the Beyer style so started subscribing to the database.
The Bog Warrior example isn't even a Raceform speed rating btw, they didn't rate the meeting but I do my own for the Irish that races they miss out by using their much more regularly updated standard times. For me, running 20lbs faster than 3 Cheltenham winners is more convincing than being marginally the fastest time in a day of class 4 races whatever the rating providers say! |
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Tom - the depth in this race is truly exceptional for a novice event. I feel that any of the top four or five could win if running to the best of their ability on the day and for that reason, although Sprinter looks a superstar, I think he is too short in the betting. - I totally agree with this, though i am not dead against the horse ultimately prevailing.
Extreme Conviction, great post indeed. Maybe I am making too many excuses for SS, but I think you are perhaps beiong a touch harsh. In his Ascot bumper debut I think he did pick up (receiving concesions), but King of the Knight picked up too, they pulled some way clear, and if anything SS found for pressure. That was clearly a top class bumper. SS looked like a big, raw, immature baby, and whilst the response may not have been immediate, I think it was pretty impressive. In the Supreme, IMO he ran a mamouth race considering he pulled far, far too hard early, maybe he got racing too early, arrived too early to beat CC, he has also had a wind op since and the way he flattened out (admittedly after pulling) was suggestive of a possible wind issue. On his debut hurdles run, he was running over 2m 3 against a stayer who had already run that yr and had already had 7 runs over hurdles - Frascati is clearly useful and was 2yrs old than SS, vastly more experienced and SS returned home a 'sick' horse - I think in the circumstances that was a terrific run. As I say, I think the value has gone for SS and maybe I am protesting too much, but i think he has legit excuses in the races mentioned. |
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The final point about SS's Supreme win was I think it must be significant the handler did not want to run - Maybe he thought he ad the winner in Spirit Son, but he repetedly said he thought the horse would be readier in 12 months. For me to run as well as he did in the circumstances described when (even leaving the mitigation on the day behind) he was probably physically not ready was a magnificent effort. I emphasise I think the value has gone however.
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When NH was talking about SS before last years supreme he said "I suppose I'll have to run him in it but I see him as more of an Arkle horse for next year". He knew he wouldn't be ready but he also expected him to be his Arkle horse this year.
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SS is clearly a very good horse, what we don't know yet is if he is quite as good as some of you are hoping. The only piece of evidence yet to support this is an alternative interpretation of his time at Kempton, Nick Mordin's website claims the sectionals were superb compared to Finian's Rainbow.
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I will admit my thoughts on this horse are based mainly on a hunch, and knowing that Geraghty and the trainer rate him so highly is a bit of a giveaway too. Having watched the replay of his clever, quick jumping last time out several times, something clicked for me. I want to know now, I guess I will have to wait....
People go on about the Supreme, they need to realise quickly how irrelevant that run was. |
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Being beaten in his only run at the track is far from irrelevant imo.
He is a potential superstar, I've thought so since he won the bumper at Ayr.Whether he can produce his best at Cheltenham remains to be seen. |
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Irrelevant? Sorry, cant have that either.
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still not as significant as many are making out given hendo didn't even really want to run and said he was a year too soon - in that light it was a remarkable run and his chase runs have been sweet
no one can say he can't win the Arkle because he failed in one race specially given the comments from the trainer and jockey |
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All form is relevant....some just more so than others. You can knock his Supreme run and say he didn't like the track, or take it at face value as his best ever run over hurdles.
He is such an athletic and well balanced horse, I have no concerns about the track. He is the best jumper of fences amongst the top novice chasers this season and that should count. |
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I suppose it is not irrelevant as I view it as a great run when not ready and with a breathing problem. Several glasses of grape juice last evening
 .If we factor in that we are going jumping now over half a furlong less, and the different proposition we are dealing with I can forgive a dizzy self for viewing it as not very important... |
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 so, any chance now DWM? |
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looking forward to laying this one at evens on the day.
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Hes good enough to win the champion chase, HE COULD GO THERE.
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 Your only hope is that he goes for Champion Chase |
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When you look at this topic grabbing headline now you think, fool don't know wot he talkin about.
TF it aint entered in the Queen Mum. May suppliment, but doubt it |
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No harm attempting to take on the short ones. It's just the case for doing so was rather flimsy,imo.
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amazing thing today was he barely seemed to have a race, there was tons more there if needed
for anyone to say "can't win" was already preposterous but after that effort today it's just plain silly |
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Indeed. And he almost pulled Geraghty's arms out for the first mile and forced/jumped his way to the front quite early.
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