Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...
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Replies: 388
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I've just about stopped p1ssing myself laughing at the title of this thread.
We all need moments like this to help us get through the day, so thanks dwm |
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Not sure about the raceform rating from Kempton - he was 8 seconds quicker than Finians Rainbow that day and was hardly off the bridle. There is little doubt in Seven Barrows which is the better horse. Where does his official handicap rating of 161 come from if he has no decent form over fences?
He slaughtered Peddlers Cross, who was odds on favourite to beat him but subsequently found to have 'things' wrong with him....very scientific explanation by McCain. I think this is a 4 horse race for which Sprinter Sacre is the likeliest winner and Al Ferof is his biggest danger. |
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Think if Bog Warrior runs in the Arkle he wins.
Hopefully they go this route & Sir Des Champs for RSA Lets all do the Gigginstown dance !  |
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Dunno about Sprinter being made too much use of last year. Spirit Son was ridden even more prominently and beat him.
Don't buy this Cue Card is a great battler line either.A couple of times he has looked suspect. As for Menorah he is an awful jumper,comparing him to Finians Rainbow is ludicrous. Bog Warrior is very good but all the evidence suggests he's a mudlark and I'd have thought was unlikely to run. |
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ff. So you think PC ran to form then?
Scientific explanation or not, I would be quite confident that wasnt his true running myself. |
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Bog Warrior has yet to encounter good ground but has won twice on ground described as yielding, including his impressive victory over the subsequent Irish Arkle winner. The trainer says he is the best he has ever trained so I cannot see him ducking the challenge of the Arkle. The fact that he will be having his third 2m race in 4 starts on Saturday supports the theory that the Arkle is the aim.
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Whatever, PC was beaten after half a mile. The Arkle isn't run over 4f so I'm taking that form as being pretty meaningless whether it was an excuse or not.
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CCM
PC clearly didn't run to form at Kempton. We won't see him before Cheltenham but it would be a huge leap of faith to imagine him being so much better on the day that he will reverse the form. SS is the younger, less experienced horse and is highly likely to improve. |
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Flyingbolt-
The way I read it was that whilst Spirit Son raced more prominently Sprinter Sacre made a crucial move on the approach to the third last. Cue Card went with him and I believe they pressed on too soon compromising their chances of seeing out the race as well as the more patiently ridden Al Ferof. Spirit Son did attempt to keep tabs on them but for whatever reason, possibly not handling the downhill run as well as Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card, could not quite go the pace and was a couple of lengths down as they turned for home. I think this probably helped him in the end. Also, Spirit Son's effort at Aintree was very impressive and he could just be a very good horse who was better than Sprinter Sacre at that stage of their careers. Just my opinion though. Have been known to be wrong! |
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Slap think Sir Des Champs will go Jewson route as never won or ran over 3 miles, also Gigginstown have Last Instalment and FL for Sun Alliance.
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Basically I think you are right,AJM.Both Henderson horses were ridden to beat Cue Card and ended up beating each other,leaving Al Ferof to pick up the pieces.
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I dont think that SS is the type who will finish second in this race, hence the reason im coming at it with a f/c angle
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Stevo - just thinking (hoping !) that they think 3m on better ground will suit
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dwm - you seem a bit of a one-dimensional guesser.
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I"m in the PC camp because i dont think any of the other runners would get so close to hurricane fly in through run race which the Arkle always is and also we have yet to see SS get into a battle.
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can't believe this thread is still alive
you must all be bored |
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Interesting op and, whilst i think the race is more open than the betting suggests, SS remains my idea of the winner.
Regarding his flaws, I'd only chip in what I have said before - (12.12.11) in the Supreme I believe he was beaten because he pulled too hard early, and maybe he got racing too early in the race, leaving little left for when the chips were down. He has also had a wind op since, who knows whether it will work, but the way he flattened out last yr (admittedly after pulling) was suggestive of a possible wind issue; (20.01.12) as a S Sacre backer (12s and 10s), I want to believe he will get up the hill and do believe he had mitigating circumstances last yr - immaturity, possible physical weakness, possible beathing issue (possibly, possibly not remedied), got there too soon, tanked too hard for the first 4f. He has been visually impressive this yr and whilst i do not think the form is worthless, and do feel he is potentially exceptional, i accept there has to be a little doubt about him getting up the hill. I am not wildy confident that he will, but quietly confident. We will only know after the but I trust Barry to execute the necessary ride, as he has before in the race. Regarding Menorah leading, who knows, but Hobbs after Kempton was not too clear (I know he has fallen since, so their view may have changed) that he enjoyed leading - 'one thing that will help in the Arkle is a stronger pace and he did get beaten a couple of times over hurdles when he had to make the running'. |
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In typical Betfair Forum style, many of you have missed the point and gone all out on the defensive! I apologise if a discussion on race tactics is a bit too complex for a number of you to understand, but for me it's everything - especially in races as competitive as this!
This is painful having to explain myself, but here goes... Firstly, I am not discussing the merits of each individual horse; like some of you I think Sprinter Sacre is special, I think he'll win lots of races and im excited by him as a prospect in the years to come, BUT, in my opinion, he cannot win this race, purely because as stated in my opening post, having assessed each of his rivals and how they'll run to best enhance their chance of winning, I can't see how tactically Barry Geraghty can steer him to do so! If he leads he'll leave himself exposed to challengers up the hill, if he sits in midfield he'll have to pass game front runners which could result in him cutting his throat and setting the race up for those stalking in behind, and if he's held up he'll find himself alongside horses who are better equipped to finish! He's bless with great jumping ability and lightening pace, but on what we've seen so far, it cannot be said he packs a punch when it comes to finishing a race; he's raced once at Cheltenham, travelled like the best horse in the race before finding very little at the foot of the hill - I won't listen to an argument against that because the proof is there for everyone to see... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nANps0jY2pI If you've got 10's then congratulations, you've beaten the market, but don't sit there with a hard on thinking you're on a good thing because you're not - and if you seriously believe you are tell me why? Tell me how Geraghty's going to run the race? Tell me how he's going to challenge the lead pair while keeping enough in the tank to finish on a par with Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross? Don't tell me he's going to win head in chest and all that b*llocks, that's not an analytical answer, it demonstrates nothing - you're just trying to convince yourself you're on a good thing, you're not offering me any sort of opinion I can consider! |
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Good horses can be ran in several different ways, and good jockeys can assess a race as it unfolds to put their mount in the best position. Jockey's don't come much better than Barry Geraghty.
To say he can't win the race because of tactics is a nonsense. Big Bucks can front run, he can come from the back and he can sit in the middle of the pack, what's to say Sprinter can't do the same? He may get beat, I don't think anyone is saying he is invincible, but to say he CAN'T win because there is not one type of scenario that will see him past the others is ridiculous. The best horses will 99% rise to the top in strongly run Grade 1 races, where the weak are seperated from the strong. RC has given perfectly reasons why he may not have got up the hill last year. He was a baby, the trainer didn't want to run, he's had a wind op, he went for home too quick, he pulled, had an unfamiliar jockey AND still finished third!! There were people who said Binocular couldn't get up the hill because of his Supreme Novices loss and his loss in the Champion Hurdle. Then what happened - he smashed them the next year!! |
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Whoever created this thread is a prat! Sprinter Sacre can win the Arkle so be quiet! It's a 3 horse race, depending on how the race is run it might be a two horse race. Peddlers Cross being the danger.
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dwm, to suggest there is no way this race will be run that sees SS win is downright ludicrous. You then even have the cheek to suggest your argument is too complex.
You must be fishing? |
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How's it a suspicion Sprinter Sacre won't get up the hill; he's tried once and failed, if you believe he will you're guessing!
So because he didn't get up the hill last year he can't this year? One dimensional guessing. You have to look at everything. Masterminded made a good point, about Al Ferof coming up the hill in the bumper, and coming up the hill completly different in the Supreme. He is a completly different horse for fences. People do not realise how big a difference they are. Peddlers has always been a neat hurdler to me, and I got slated in the summer for saying he won't be as good a chaser. Someone tried to tell me that because he chased home the Fly and was rated 173 and because he has won a pt to pt he would be far better over fences WTF? Last year Sprinter was a baby, Hendo even said he shouldn't be running him, he ran a blinder. Lost so much momentum at the last, yes he'd have been beat anyway. As lots have said they got racing too soon... The first 2 last year: Alf had already won over 2m4f, Spirit Son won over 2m4f next time, it turned into a power staying race. Also He's had a breathing op. The Arkle is 110 yds less than the Supreme. You don't have to stay as well over fences as you do over hurdles. It is no coincidence that the longest chase is 4m4f and the longest hurdle is what 3m3f? He is saving ground over every fence compared to hurdles. There are many different things to take into account. Sorry in a rush haven't got time to even start talking about how the race will be run. But your main point about because he didn't get up the hill last year he won't this is complete bollox - sorry. |
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To say he can't win the race because of tactics is a nonsense.
Chief,thats often how races are won and lost,particularly competitive ones like this one looks. And SS is not BBucks,whilst he could do what BB can,he also may not be able to,so daft comparism. Way i see it the OP is trying to work the race out and has come to that conclusion,dont see a major problem to be honest.Its his opinion. Oh,and SS is not Binocular either. |
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Indeed rhinestone, such a one dimensional view of form is anything but complex
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Hi DWM767, nice and combative!
A good debate and a good op post to start it certainly. Regarding the horse being home and hosed, as I have said before on the thread devoted to the horse, I think the argument is still wide open and serious cases can be made for several. I am confident but far, far from bullish. I have tried to address Barry's tactics elsewhere - 'when the pilot unleashes him at the right moment (i.e., not a moment too soon) he can [I hope] quicken away and put it to bed' ; 'if Barry can keep something up his sleeve in March, I would think he'd quicken away'. I think that will be what Barry is planning, and though execution is not likely to be easy he is as good a jockey as I have seen and if anyone can pull it off, I suspect it would be him. I would not back him at his current price and I have acknowledged elsewhere - 'it is true that until he exorcizes last yr's fading finish we really will not know. What we can be certain of is that if Peddlars Cross and Al Ferof line up, they are surely guaranteed to relish the hill'. On this question (is the horse athletically capable of executing this plan against these horses in this Arkle) I have attempted to address concerns by saying I believe that there are possible explanations for the fact that the one time he was let down in a race, he did not pack a punch ('I believe he was beaten because he pulled too hard early, and maybe he got racing too early in the race, leaving little left for when the chips were down. He has also had a wind op since, who knows whether it will work, but the way he flattened out last yr (admittedly after pulling) was suggestive of a possible wind issue; ... immaturity, possible physical weakness, possible beathing issue (possibly, possibly not remedied), got there too soon, tanked too hard for the first 4f). It is a good idea to think about how the race will be run (necessary of course) but the race at Kempton proves it is tricky - the stayer on the speed track clouted the first and the race plan was gone within seconds. I know we cannot factor the unimaginable into our punting but it is a big stretch for me to assume or try to calculate that the 65 fences and 20 minutes of running these 5 very closely matched, highly talented horses will complete in the race will pan out as it should in theory (well, in one theory, yours) - trying to work through the theoretically likely running / finishing possibilities in these circumstances is exceptionally difficult with a high degree of accurancy. I do give the matter lots of thought, but in doing so, I do not automatically come up with the answer you arrive at. |
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Forget what happened in the Supreme last year. It means nothing. Just wait until the Arkle and the first two at Kempton will be the first two home again. Dont you worry about that!
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Your point about Menorah is nonsence; his best jumping performance came at Taunton where he was allowed to jump at speed in front! He was superb apart from the blip at the last!
Also is this for real? Awful jump at the first, no better at the 2nd, jumped it like a snooker table. Then the 3rd! He Seen a stride a mile out, pushed him into it, was on the perfect stride and looked like he was going to wing it, but he ballooned it giving it 2 feet of air. A sign of a horse that doesn't like jumping. He pretty much did the same at the 4th as well. A few decent and average jumps in the middle then the last was really bad. |
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Ha Ha - I tell you lot something... lets have a match bet. I'll have Sprinter Sacre and you can have two horses. Deal?
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shut up mayweather,you add nothing productive.
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Budd, I never said that Sprinter is Binocular or Big Bucks.
I simply said that not every horse has to be a front runner, not every horse is a hold up horse; the best ones adapt (ie like Big Bucks). I think the Binocular point was also relevant. Just because a horse doesn't get up the hill one year doesn't mean he won't get up it the next, a year stronger, a year more mature. If you wrote off every horse that lost its first race at Cheltenham you'd be in the poor house now. Tactics play a much bigger role in 3 or 4 runner races imo - not a strongly run 10 runner Arkle. Obviously tactics play a part, but as long as they don't go an absolute crawl or go mad fast at the start the race should sort itself out and the best will come out on top. Anyway, its a pointless argument for me - to say he CAN'T win is ridiculous. If anyone who thinks that and has some bollox fancy laying me some 4 or 5/1? I'm willing to put £20 on it. |
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budd I know you've backed Alf.
I've took 25's for the KG think it's a good price. Have you had a go? Anyway gotta dash. |
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Difference is Binocular has never not got home at Cheltenham,SS has.
I aint saying SS wont get home,ive never said that.What i have said is he did not last year,and every race hes won has been on the bridle.I would add to that they have all been on flat tracks. What that means in terms of the Arkle i aint sure,but imo he could just as easily win well as fail well. |
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the OP needs to STFU
because his whole point is included in the title thread and that indicates weak thinking to say the least You can predict that the horse won't win but there is nothing big or clever about that after all he is ODDS AGAINST winning - more likely he won't win than he will But to say he CAN'T win is ludicrous and illogical. He clearly has a finite chance and therefore he CAN (could) win the race as long as he lines up at the start. |
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Re the flat track angle Budd, the only undulating track he has been tested on was in the Supreme - the hardest race of his life again his best opposition and I think he ran great considering he pulled like a train for 4f, possibky had a breathing issue, walked through the last, was immature and weak (according to the the trainer), the trainer did not want to wake him (why not? if he thought he could win the race would he have not wanted to go?), possibly go there too soon... The only other time beaten, he returned a sick horse.
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Rhine,
Fair price that,Arkle winner going on to take 3m races the following season,yeh can see that happening. Certainly happened before. |
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Yeh i know all that RC.
He had fair reasons for not finishing the race off,no doubt. Thats why i said make of it what you will re Chelt,winning on the bridle etc Some will look at it different than others,guess thats why we take money off each other on here. My gut feeling is he will get home ok,but that may be wrong. |
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We are are always told, and rightly so, that year after year horses that run well at the festival come back and repeat it, and to pay particular attention to previous festival winners. There could potentially be 7 (SEVEN) previous festival winners line up at the start of this years Arkle, and Sprinter Sacre aint one of them. Not for me at 9-4
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All this won't get up the hill crap that gets peddled about every year about some horse or another is the biggest load of nonsense, if the horse is good enough he'll get up the hill. As an aside, he managed to outstay Cue Card up the hill but I haven't heard a single person doubt CC will get up the hill.
As for Menorah, jumping issues aside I doubt very much whether he'd be up to placing in this if it were a hurdles race. |
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I would also not read too much into the fact that the trainer has not run him on undulating tracks other than at the festival either. Ascot is a place he often sends a decent bumper horse and Ayr seemed like a good place to go (used to be a decent bumper) avoiding the festivals. Starting back at Ascot again having run there as a bumper horse seems sensible - 1 of their better novices was sent to the race this yr too. Fos Las (on Oscar Whisky day, a galloping track) then back to Ascot seems fine. This yr I think the target was Newbury (their best 2 milers have been targetted at that race recently, Riverside, Finians) but that race was replaced by a limited handicap so Doncaster was chosen (a galloping track) and then Kempton (a race targetted - Riverside, Jack the Giant, Fondmort, Remittance). Newbury next seems sensible (was entered at Doncaster, which also would make sense).
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I agree Budd - I would not put my life on it, but i feel quite confident he will - only time will tell!
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