Cheltenham Festival
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Sounds like one of those ridiculous, bullish 'im gonna take him on' comments, but having thought about this for the past three days I can't see how this horse can win; tactically it's an impossibility.
In my opinion we'll have the five genuine contenders line up for the race; Sprinter Sacre, Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Cue Card & Menorah. Who'll lead this group on 5? In my opinion it's Menorah; obviously has jumping issues, surely Richard Johnson will want to give him a good look at every fence. Cue Card won't be far behind, and with the enthusiasm this pair have raced with over fences the pace is sure to be strong. Al Ferof will be held up by Ruby; he hasn't got the pace to mix it upfront I don't believe, and so Walsh's only chance is to wind him up from the rear coming down the hill as he did in last year's Supreme. Peddlers Cross will appreciate the strong pace set by the lead pair, so where does this leave Sprinter Sacre in the race? He won't lead surely; Geraghty must remember last years Supreme & will want to save all he can for the hill, but that means he's going to have to go pick up the leaders at some stage, which could prove tricky as they both appear to have the stamina to match their speed and won't be passed without a fight. If he does reach them, the effort he'll have to use in doing so could leave him a sitting duck for Peddlers Cross or Al Ferof, who'l be plenty close enough by this stage of the race.
You know when you run a race through your head and what's likely to happen - I can't imagine the ride Geraghty can give Sprinter Sacre which will see him win. I think he's brilliant and fantastically talented, but in this race against this opposition and the way they run, I couldn't back him a twice his price.
In my opinion we'll have the five genuine contenders line up for the race; Sprinter Sacre, Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Cue Card & Menorah. Who'll lead this group on 5? In my opinion it's Menorah; obviously has jumping issues, surely Richard Johnson will want to give him a good look at every fence. Cue Card won't be far behind, and with the enthusiasm this pair have raced with over fences the pace is sure to be strong. Al Ferof will be held up by Ruby; he hasn't got the pace to mix it upfront I don't believe, and so Walsh's only chance is to wind him up from the rear coming down the hill as he did in last year's Supreme. Peddlers Cross will appreciate the strong pace set by the lead pair, so where does this leave Sprinter Sacre in the race? He won't lead surely; Geraghty must remember last years Supreme & will want to save all he can for the hill, but that means he's going to have to go pick up the leaders at some stage, which could prove tricky as they both appear to have the stamina to match their speed and won't be passed without a fight. If he does reach them, the effort he'll have to use in doing so could leave him a sitting duck for Peddlers Cross or Al Ferof, who'l be plenty close enough by this stage of the race.
You know when you run a race through your head and what's likely to happen - I can't imagine the ride Geraghty can give Sprinter Sacre which will see him win. I think he's brilliant and fantastically talented, but in this race against this opposition and the way they run, I couldn't back him a twice his price.
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just because you can't imagine it doesn't mean it doesn't exist - just means you lack imagination. There is of course a finite chance that the horse wins the race so your premise that he can't win is wrong - what you meant was "I don't think he will win, aren't I wacky to take him om?"
well not too wacky because the current odds suggest 70% of the time he won't win |
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SS will probably still be on the bridle at the last fence
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bridle ponce lay lay lay and get the festival off to a great start :)
that's the plan anyway! |
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I'm far from convinced SS will win. There will be plenty of place as you say, you forgot about Bog Warrior who is another prominent racer and who looks like he may be going the 2m route - seems he is probably running in the 2 mile race this weekend rather than the 2m 5F? People are watching SS and thinking Azertyuiop. I'm watching and thinking yes maybe Azerty, or maybe Twist Magic...
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Rather than lay ss, i think i'll go for the bigger reward of a Peddlar's/Al Ferof rfc in the thought that if Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre hit the hill again the risk/reward scenario is bigger.
Long meeting and lots of short ones, dont get to far in on day one imo of course |
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bog warrior will not run in arkle?..surely the 2m 5 is the race for him...a very good horse..at 2m tho things might happen too fast for him?
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No chance Menorah will make the running. He likes a strongly run race so he can use his speed at the finish.
He was held up at Donny,lto, albeit in a 3 runner field, and I suspect they will do the same again. |
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I can't see Menorah making it either. CC is likely to set a helter skelter pace and no way would Menorahs jumping hold up trying to go it. They'll surely try and nurse him round, nonetheless, I suspect an accumulation of little blips will make him uncompetitive from 2 out.
If CC can get a clear round in, then it's possible that he'll have them all at it turning for home and I see him as the one most likely to beat SS, in that instance (PC already bested and AF wants further imv). But I can just as easily imagine SS swinging along imperiously a length or two behind..... |
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A strongly run Arkle would suit SS down to the ground wouldnt it so dont get the OP's arguement for laying him on that basis tbh. By all means, lay SS on account of his price, or in the suspicion he wont ''get up the hill'', but I cant see a strongly run race with a couple of front runners leading to SS being left in no mans land meaning he wont win.
I hope not anyway!  |
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Menorah was held up Saturday & fell...! He will make the running, he's got an engine and it'd be stupid not to take advantage of that! How's it a suspicion Sprinter Sacre won't get up the hill; he's tried once and failed, if you believe he will you're guessing!
How do you all see the race being won then? There's every chance Sprinter Sacre could travel all the way on the bridle, but then what? With the finishers in this race, i.e. Al Ferof & Peddlers Cross he's going to really have to battle to hold on to his lead, and that's after he's got past Menorah & Cue Card who like I said won't go down without a fight! I'm talking tactics here guys; not interested in who's the best horse in the race or who's value or anything like that - I doubt i'll even bet in this, but I just can foresee how Geraghty can get Sprinter Sacre home in front given the weapons he's got in his armoury! |
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*can't
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Saying he can't win is a bit of a bold statement. I think he could take the field apart tbh. Another year on his back, the best jumper in the field & also the fastest. I can't see any negatives if there is a strongly run race it will just set it up for him. PC & Al Ferof to battle it out for 2nd. I have no idea what Bog Warrior will be up to but trainer seemed to be pretty open to the idea. I guess quicker ground could find him out over 2 miles but no evidence yet to say for definite.
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How do we know he's going to have a battle? He might just cruise past them he's already left one tailed off when he was just cantering around.
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Can't see how he avoids one if not two battles in the race; one to get past the leaders and two to repel the chargers! I guess his only hope is his jumping; he's superb and could take a length out the field at each fence, but still if any of the other leading contenders put in a clear round this might not be enough!
I hadn't considered Bog Warrior a runner; looking at his form and his 31 length win over two & a half miles I had in my mind if he runs at all it'll be in the RSA! |
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Because I don't believe Cue Card is the kind of horse you cruise past...say what you like about him but he's a game as they come, and I can't see him going down without a fight!
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DWM, he fell becuase he cant jump. Making the running at pace will make his stake more difficult wouldn't it?!
And how do you define failure ? You see a horse placing in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham as failure to get up the hill? OK fair enough, this point is completley open to interpretation. And your saying SS cant win yet your not even betting ?? |
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I'm not suggesting Cue Card can win, although he has got a chance in my opinion if he jumps well, but I think the likes of him and Menorah in the race will make things tricky for Sprinter Sacre! They're both too good to just empty out, they're not 100/1 no hopers, they're genuine contenders who at some stage in the race I believe will hold a good 4 or 5 length lead over Sprinter Sacre with Geraghty saving a bit back for the hill - not sure he can ride him any other way, and not sure you can afford to give that pair that kind of lead unless you've got plenty of fight for the finish, like Al Ferof & Peddlers Cross will have!
I may be completely wrong, but I see it as a Denman / Kauto Star scenario; Kauto had more class in my opinion, but each time he gave Denman a lead around Cheltenham he couldn't peg him back - I see Sprinter Sacre as being in the same mould; hugely talented, but potentially limited around Prestbury Park! |
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Best novice jumper iv seen for years but if it was a hurdle race he would be close to 10/1. hes probably underpriced but looks like a gold cup horse in the future BUT ITS SURE TO BE A GREAT RACE.
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Ive got 10/1 dwm.
Do you want to lay me some more at that price if you are so sure. Tell you what i will accept 5/1 |
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Not betting because if Menorah puts in a clear round I think he'll win, but im not convinced he will, and outside of that I can't split Al Ferof, Peddlers Cross & Cue Card on what they've achieved over fences! I guess if pressed on the way I believe the race will be run, Al Ferof could be worth a bet!
I define his Supreme Novice run as a faliure because he travelled like the winner all the way round and didn't go on to take it! Yeah 3rd in a hot Grade 1 Novice race is good form but given the way he moved to the front turning for home he should of gone on to win, no debating that! Your point about Menorah is nonsence; his best jumping performance came at Taunton where he was allowed to jump at speed in front! He was superb apart from the blip at the last! He's the same as Finians Rainbow last year; when allowed to jump at his own pace he's good, and when the pace is dictated to him, like it was at Warwick, it's poor! Hobbs / Johnson aren't mugs, this won't have slipped their attention! Big, brave & bold out front Menorah, im sure of it! |
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That's Finians jumping at Warwick by the way!
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Bog Warrior's easy 7.5L win over Flemenstar was over 2m and that one's win in the Irish Arkle must make BW just as likely to be a 2m contender. We will know more when we see which engagement he takes up this weekend?
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Hickster id rather lay the 5/2 about him to those still willing to pile in! 10's is a fair price but I still wouldn't back it myself; he's just not the right type to win a race like this against there rivals no matter how good he is, and he's very, very, very good, I don't want to knock him, I just don't think he can win here!
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Nonsense is it ? I must have imgained his hurdles peformances where a big field and strong pace suited him best!
My point about betting is, whether you can split the other runners or not, that if you believe SS cant win, you'd simply lay him. I mean, why not ? |
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Bog Warrior running on Saturday
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Fascinating stuff,and this race is bringing out all sorts of opinions.
I was talking to someone at the weekend and he was saying for SS to win the Arkle he will have to win on the bridle. That would take some doing!! |
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Are you sure about Menorah? I always thought his best asset was his turn of pace and the way he can quicken off a crawl; I believe that's why he wasn't as effective in last years Champion Hurdle (along with running flat), because the pace he having to travel at in behind meant his finishing kick was somewhat blunted!
I might lay Sprinter Sacre but it'd have to be in running because he will travel well and will shorten in price! Considering 1.8; I think he'll touch that before things get too serious! |
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it's a completely specious argument by the OP and probably the whole thread is just inflammatory
saying "I don't think this horse WILL win" is one thing but to claim a horse "can't" win is clearly nonsense once there is a finite chance of something happening then it definitely can happen and that is all there is to it. So, if the OP wants to make a prediction that's fine but this "can't win" stuff is clearly bollox |
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SS's biggest danger from Menorah is being brought down by him!
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dwm i cant help thinking that you are correct here.
i think s.s is probably the best horse in the race but i can also see him not winning. |
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If people think that Sprinter Sacre didn't 'get up the hill' on the basis of last years Supreme novices' hurdle then surely they must accuse Cue Card of the same? He also travelled powefully down the hill but couldn't get by sprinter Sacre on the climb to the line and was overhauled by the stronger finishing Al Ferof and Spirit Son.
Obviously, we know Cue Card does 'get up the hill' on the basis of his Champion Bumper form. So I guess the point I am trying to make is that 'getting up the hill' is a relative term, and dependent on factors such as opposition and the way the race has been run. My interpretation of last years Supreme Novices' is that Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card simply pressed on too far out and left themselves vulnerable to those who had been ridden with more restraint. Ruby is a master at timing his run at Cheltenham and I think this helps explain his extraordinary success there, and Al Ferof's victory. Clearly the same could happen again this year, but I would certainly be reluctant to call Sprinter Sacre a weak finisher purely on the basis of the Supreme Novices' |
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Not really,cos Cue Card has shown he finds off the bridle,SS has not.
As far as i recall SS has won all his races on the bridle,and lost when he was off it. Read into that what you will,some take it different to others. Im sitting on the fence a tad,he has strengthened and could well be ok,but at the same time he still has to show us. |
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I think SS will win on the bridle, which of course is a much bolder statement than saying a 9/4 shot can't win
 I have bought into this one hook, line, and sinker it will be great for the 2m division to have another superstar I really think this is the one... |
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Lol if someone wants to tell me where Sprinter Sacre has found nothing off the bridle please give me an example. Ill at Ascot & kicked on too early before flattening the last in the Supreme. It was a pretty poor ride by AP as all he had in his mind was beating Cue Card which he did off the bridle easily. If SS had been held up off the pace he would have won the Supreme. Plus he has another year on his back. Did Al Ferof not get up the hill in the bumper when he was destroyed by Cue Card? No he was probably a little weak at the time and inexperienced. Which is exactly the same scenario for Sprinter Sacre only difference being Sprinter Sacre looked the best horse in the race. I really do think a lot of clutching at straws is going on by those who missed the boat.
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To be fair I have missed the boat- I just don't like the term 'getting up the hill'! I agree Cue Card has found plenty off the bridle and he bounded up the hill to win the bumper, but he still didn't 'get up the hill' as well as Sprinter Sacre last year.
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Let's just look past the hype for a minute.
Two runs over fences. Both of them jogs round, one against a horse that has some ok form at, erm, Hexham and Sedgefield, the other against a very good horse who wasn't right, clouted the first and was beaten by the second fence. Time at Doncaster was good (raceform 112) but not special, time at Kempton was slow (103). He has achieved nothing yet other than jumping safely round. Absolutely he is a favourite I am looking to take on. |
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The OP's position is clearly too entrenched, but I can't have SS at the price. I won't be laying him unless he goes odds on, but it's surely the most overhyped horse at the moment. Sure, his run against PC bur to say there are no negatives is wide of the mark.
He is still very inexperienced and was beaten fair and square in the Supreme Novices. The corridors of festival history are absolutely littered with similar hype horses who haven't got the job done on the day. |
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Thast exactly how I sum it up thieves. His price is based on hype, something I dont like backing.
AS already said though, I'll be absolutely amazed if Menorah leads. I think you can read too much into how the race is going to be run. If SS is good enough, he will win imo, same as all the principals in this race. |
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the stables comments re: trying to get SS to take a lead this saturday does highlight their concern as to whether he'll run himself into the ground in the big one. i think that cue card is quite important to SS chance as that one will surely lead and make it a right strong pace....the worry is that SS won't have it and he and CC wreck each other up front.
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