Cheltenham Festival
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Of course, a lot can happen in ten weeks, but both Kauto Star and Long Run have one doubt or another about them, so obvious thing to do is try and find something at a price. But there's not a lot out there to take them on with.
Injuries to Weapons Amnesty, Imperial Commander, Denman and Pandorama has weakened the potential field a lot in my opinion.
Looking at the others, Synchronised fourth favourite? He's no Gold Cup winner, surely, and his win in the Lexus Chase sums up the Irish chances. Rubi Light, Joncol, Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque are decent animals but if they can't beat Synchronised, then the Gold Cup is beyond them.
I think we will probably see money for one or more of Time For Rupert, Weird Al, Captain Chris, Master of the Hall or Diamond Harry in the build-up as punters look to oppose the front two. But really, I don't think any of that five have what it takes to beat Kauto or Long Run.
The one horse who I think might be overpriced is Burton Port. Still only an 8yo and lightly enough raced, so if he retained all of his ability, he might be one to keep on the right side. But when is he due out? He'd need a run before the Festival. And obviously with a field full of so many question marks, the temptation will be for Grands Cru's connections to try their luck. And you know, I've a feeling they might get away with it. The horse was so impressive at Kempton, and before that in his novice races too. I'd fancy him for a place anyway.
All things considered and assuming Grands Cru keeps to novice company, will any of us be that surprised if the winner is not Kauto Star or Long Run?
Injuries to Weapons Amnesty, Imperial Commander, Denman and Pandorama has weakened the potential field a lot in my opinion.
Looking at the others, Synchronised fourth favourite? He's no Gold Cup winner, surely, and his win in the Lexus Chase sums up the Irish chances. Rubi Light, Joncol, Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque are decent animals but if they can't beat Synchronised, then the Gold Cup is beyond them.
I think we will probably see money for one or more of Time For Rupert, Weird Al, Captain Chris, Master of the Hall or Diamond Harry in the build-up as punters look to oppose the front two. But really, I don't think any of that five have what it takes to beat Kauto or Long Run.
The one horse who I think might be overpriced is Burton Port. Still only an 8yo and lightly enough raced, so if he retained all of his ability, he might be one to keep on the right side. But when is he due out? He'd need a run before the Festival. And obviously with a field full of so many question marks, the temptation will be for Grands Cru's connections to try their luck. And you know, I've a feeling they might get away with it. The horse was so impressive at Kempton, and before that in his novice races too. I'd fancy him for a place anyway.
All things considered and assuming Grands Cru keeps to novice company, will any of us be that surprised if the winner is not Kauto Star or Long Run?
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Anyone like to make a case for something other than the top three in the betting?
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On form, there's nothing within a stone of the top 2 and Grands Crus the only one with the scope to become as good as them in the short term although Captain Chris definitely a better horse in the scond half of the season and won an Arkle by staying as previous winners of this race have done. Burton Port looks like he'd need 4 miles in top company and was outpaced at the cross fence in his Hennessy so can't see him staying with these.
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it's difficult but the Denman vs Kauto renewal in 2010 was won by Imperial Commander!
Burton Port is the one who appeals to me too - also would n't write Weird Al off - he was staying on at the end of the Betfair after an impressive effort in the Charlie Hall and might yet be seen to better effect over Gold Cup trip. Not impressed by any of the second season chasers or the Irish contingent - with the possible exception of China Rock who went well for a long way in the race last season, not sure what's going on with him though. On form the others have a lot to find but if you think Grand Crus will end up in the RSA and Kauto might not quite get up the hill at 12 and Long Run still has jumping issues, then you'd be tempted to find an each way value alternative. |
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perhaps also worth mentioning that 25/1,40/1 and 50/1 shots have made each way money within last five years.
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to be fair commander was only 13-2
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Strictly on form the top 2 have it. BUT the stats strongly suggest they will be beat.
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IC went off at 7/1 Howdi but definitely available at 12/1 not too long before the race.
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I recall the 2010 Gold Cup. For much of the winter, it was viewed as a two horse race, as RH says. But about 10 days to a fortnight preceding the Gold Cup, there was dfinitely a lot of momentum behind Imperial Commander. Even on this forum, he had a lot of fans. Similiar situation will probably happen here. Two horse race all winter, but question is who will the support come for in opposition to the main two?
Shockster. You are right. And I think the stats will lead the punters to try and find an alternative/s. But as I say, who will that alternative be? I'm guessing Burton Port or Weird Al. Grands Cru seems obvios too if he runs. |
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Can't argue with your 3 and I would add What A Friend and Quel Esprit.
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Imperial Commander had previously won at the Festival and had a sensational record at Cheltenham so he wasn't a total dark horse. The major question about him was whether he'd stay.
I'm looking forward to seeing Burton Port back. He was well matched with Long Run in the RSA though of course that was a long time ago now. I haven't written off Jesses Dream yet, though I'm not confident because of the terrible form of last year's novices. Shockster, I must say you've half persuaded me with your arguments about What a Friend. He's certainly a forgotten horse and a big price given what he has achieved. I can't really see anything else being good enough to beat Long Run and Kauto at this stage, though both are vulnerable and it becomes a very different race if one doesn't make it. What might pay in the e-w/place markets is to look for is a horse that will be ridden for third. The principals often fall back off the pace allowing something to come through for a place (e.g. Mon Mome and Carruthers in Imperial's year). |
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Inicdentally, last year's talking horse was Kempes iirc, so it doesn't always work out like it did for Imperial!
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The alternative view of the Lexus is that Synchronised has improved significantly rather than the Irish being substandard so with some cut in the ground he could conceivably stay up the hill better than Kauto.
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kauto and long run have had 2 very hard races and at the prices i would be looking to take both on ! kempton is much more kautos track and long runs jumping is a cause for concern. captain chris was a very classy novice and should have a lot of improvement in him also had the speed to win an arkle and ran well to be 3rd in the king george considering hobbs said he wasnt quite right and that he didnt jump or travel as well as he usually does, but he did stay on well also hobbs and johnson were pleased with his effort so a fair chance he will stay the gold cup trip , plus the fact that he seems to find his very best form in the spring . at around 25s e.way he would be the bet for me at this stage .
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He stayed on past non stayer Somersby who was going much better than CC during the race.The front two completely outclassed CC and were a long way ahead,and have top form at the Gold Cup trip.
Huge leap of faith to say CC can get anywhere near KS and LR imo,especially over a couple of furlongs extra,that both horses have proved they get fine. He aint jumped that well this season either. |
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In the words of the Churchill dog, 'OH YES', unless Grands Crus runs
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fair point budd but capt chris ran a bit below par last winter but in the spring he was a different horse ,and as for running past beaten horses yes he did but as i say imo he was ridden to see if he got the trip ,the gold cup has been won by a hell of a lot of horses who were tried over shorter trips earlier in thier careers i.e war of attrition ,kicking king, imperial commander even kauto ,also hobbs saying he wasnt right and missed work before king george plus i think he will be ridden more prominently in the gold cup and think at the prices its worth taking a chance on his stamina .
kauto is knocking on a bit now and great champion as he is those last 2 hard races may well take thier toll . i was all over long run last year for the gold cup and if he won again it would not suprise me but his jumping is still suspect and at the prices the 20s on capt chris appeal more to me . good luck with whatever you go with . |
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Just found this snippet from P.Nicholls stable tour regarding What A Friend. Make what you will of it.
What A Friend We've got to space out his runs. He's got two big targets this season, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Punchestown Gold Cup, where he might get some decent ground. I'm going to mind him and, if he can win one of those two big races, that will obviously pay for the season. |
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Interesting Shockster, thanks for posting that. What was the date? - specifically was it before or after the Kauto revival?
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It was September, so well before, but you know my thoughts.
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I do, and as I posted in one of the threads earlier (so many threads!) you've persuaded me a bit - certainly that WAF is overpriced.
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He looked well below his best on his most recent outing - even if it was over hurdles. And he has so many quirks about him so he's hard to win with. Still if backing at a big price, you probably aren't going to go too far wrong. But he's not a horse that inspires confidence !!
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he's unlikely to be a 75/1 shot on the day though. should be layable for a free bet.
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Another quirky individual is Tidal Bay. Beaten 23L in last year's gold cup and ran well in my book on Sunday on his debut for P.Nicholls. Could Nicholls get 20L improvement? Another Big price, but as an 11yr old it maybe too big an ask?
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I think Carruthers can run a huge race in the GC this season.Lead throughout in 2010 until the 3rd last when IC and Denman cruised past and was just touched off for 3rd by a SH. He then ran in the Aintree Bowl where beaten by What a Friend 3 lenghts. Mark Bradstock stated that he had some sort of virus for the whole of last season which was the reason for his dismal performances
A brilliant run in this term's Hennessey. A couple of bad mistakes early on,fought his way make to the front and kept finding all the way to the line Forget the Welsh National where the tacky deep ground was against him Obviously has a lot to find with the likes of LR,KS and WAF but i feel that now aged 9 he has improved and has more solid form credentials than a lot of horses half or more of his current odds! |
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I've been asking Betfair to put a market on for the Gold Cup without Kauto Star or Long Run. They have on the Ante Post list a tab for Chelt AP Specials where this could easily sit.
If anybody wants this market please can you also ask betfair on Thread - Ante Post Runner requests. |
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Revised BHA ORs:
Kauto Star 183 Long Run 182 Synchronised 168 Grands Crus 159 |
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Amazing - We are to believe that Long Run ran to his mark(182 not changed) and Kauto raised 9lbs. I don't think Captain Chris ran to his mark 164 and this suggests he did. Interesting but I'd have them all running 10lb less.
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Yes, Craptain Chris still rated 164.
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The BHA handicapper's the professional!! Anybody agree with his assessment?
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These BHA OR's are a joke. Be laughable to see Kauto or Long Run in a hcap of their marks - what hcap mark could they realistically win off now or is the more pertinent question. Cloud Cuckoo land if anyone believes they could win of these marks.
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I agree with Synchronised's mark for the Lexus (through Noland and Roberto Goldback), and Captain Chris's also looks right (e.g. through Medermit in the Haldon).
I'd have had Kauto on 178 for the Betfair through Weird Al and Time for Rupert (BHA had 174). You get these official marks for LR and KS if you rate the King George literally through either CC or Somersby - which has to be unsatisfactory, but how else do you rate the race? It's possible Long Run is still rated on the King George in January 2011 since that is within the last 12 months. I don't know if LR ran to (or close to) his January mark in December, but if he did then KS ran about a pound better than him. [Incidentally, shouldn't LR get a "bonus" in his OR because Waley Cohen is a 5 lb claimer - like for Brampour - or does that apply to conditionals but not amateurs?] The one that really surprises me is Grands Crus, who's lower than I expected. |
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I'd like to back Grands Crus in a handicap against the top 2.
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They must be tempted by The Racing Post Chase off that mark.
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Yes Grands Crus 159 and Bobs worth 151. Didn't look 8lb between them to me. Cue card 155 should have beaten Bobs worth giving 7lb at Newbury. Hard to figure out really. I'd have Kauto on about 175 and Long run on the same, but Synchronised 165 tops.
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I'd like to back Grands Crus giving 8lbs to Bobs Worth round Kempton as he's got more natural speed but accept he may find it more onerous at a stiffer track as Bobs Worth seems to be a more stamina laden type.
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Shockster I do not think they are wildly inflated marks. I certainly would not uniformly lower them 10lbs.
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Yes Grands Crus would be very interesting off 159 in the Racing Post Chase - would they want him to run so close to Cheltenham though?
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Good point and they may have learnt their lesson with Gloria Victis but the money could be too tempting off such a mark. I also think he's a much better horse than Gloria Victis but can't recall what mark that won The Racing Post Chase from.
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Was actually only off 151 (thought it was higher) but it was a red-hot field.
Gave Marlborough 15lb and a 10l hammering. So sad we lost him so soon after  |