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Cheltenham Festival
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Of course, a lot can happen in ten weeks, but both Kauto Star and Long Run have one doubt or another about them, so obvious thing to do is try and find something at a price. But there's not a lot out there to take them on with.
Injuries to Weapons Amnesty, Imperial Commander, Denman and Pandorama has weakened the potential field a lot in my opinion.
Looking at the others, Synchronised fourth favourite? He's no Gold Cup winner, surely, and his win in the Lexus Chase sums up the Irish chances. Rubi Light, Joncol, Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque are decent animals but if they can't beat Synchronised, then the Gold Cup is beyond them.
I think we will probably see money for one or more of Time For Rupert, Weird Al, Captain Chris, Master of the Hall or Diamond Harry in the build-up as punters look to oppose the front two. But really, I don't think any of that five have what it takes to beat Kauto or Long Run.
The one horse who I think might be overpriced is Burton Port. Still only an 8yo and lightly enough raced, so if he retained all of his ability, he might be one to keep on the right side. But when is he due out? He'd need a run before the Festival. And obviously with a field full of so many question marks, the temptation will be for Grands Cru's connections to try their luck. And you know, I've a feeling they might get away with it. The horse was so impressive at Kempton, and before that in his novice races too. I'd fancy him for a place anyway.
All things considered and assuming Grands Cru keeps to novice company, will any of us be that surprised if the winner is not Kauto Star or Long Run?
Injuries to Weapons Amnesty, Imperial Commander, Denman and Pandorama has weakened the potential field a lot in my opinion.
Looking at the others, Synchronised fourth favourite? He's no Gold Cup winner, surely, and his win in the Lexus Chase sums up the Irish chances. Rubi Light, Joncol, Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque are decent animals but if they can't beat Synchronised, then the Gold Cup is beyond them.
I think we will probably see money for one or more of Time For Rupert, Weird Al, Captain Chris, Master of the Hall or Diamond Harry in the build-up as punters look to oppose the front two. But really, I don't think any of that five have what it takes to beat Kauto or Long Run.
The one horse who I think might be overpriced is Burton Port. Still only an 8yo and lightly enough raced, so if he retained all of his ability, he might be one to keep on the right side. But when is he due out? He'd need a run before the Festival. And obviously with a field full of so many question marks, the temptation will be for Grands Cru's connections to try their luck. And you know, I've a feeling they might get away with it. The horse was so impressive at Kempton, and before that in his novice races too. I'd fancy him for a place anyway.
All things considered and assuming Grands Cru keeps to novice company, will any of us be that surprised if the winner is not Kauto Star or Long Run?
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Sorry Booster, I had misunderstood your comment about 20 lbs.
Meanwhile back to the title of this thread i have just topped up on LR and KS again today, intend to do this every week till the prices get chopped to too short! 11/4 LR (3.6 on here) and 4/1 KS is still good imo especially as their bigger than on here and theres more than 5k wanting to back KS even with still 10 weeks to go!
I think we saw a possibly player today in Ireland too.
lets hope so carver
even tho last seasons novices (who i like to look at for the gold cup) have been poor so far this term quel esprit is still unexposed
he was still travelling well in the RSA when coming down, and was running away with the novice race at punchestown before being bought down
i like the way mullins has campaigned him this term. not bottoming him out in slogs. running him over shorter trips, at a quicker pace to iron out any jumping issues.
he won as he liked today and we will see next time out if he is a genuine gold cup contender
even tho last seasons novices (who i like to look at for the gold cup) have been poor so far this term quel esprit is still unexposed
he was still travelling well in the RSA when coming down, and was running away with the novice race at punchestown before being bought down
i like the way mullins has campaigned him this term. not bottoming him out in slogs. running him over shorter trips, at a quicker pace to iron out any jumping issues.
he won as he liked today and we will see next time out if he is a genuine gold cup contender
Totally agre with all of that Brandy. The RSA was dreadful, but he was not IMO finished with (far from it) when coming to grief. I still think Time For Rupert can rebuild his reputation, and thnk he proobably ran very well at Cheltenham given he was not right in March. I'd also forgive Wetherby and Haydock too, given those tracks would be about as far from ideal as possible for this giant of a horse!
funny enough quel esprit and time for rupert were the 2 horses i backed at the start of the season
took a risk with rupert considering the trainer/jockey combination but half of that has been sorted out. i agree those 2 tracks would not play to his strengths but am concerned that the problem he had at the end of last term are behind him yet
took a risk with rupert considering the trainer/jockey combination but half of that has been sorted out. i agree those 2 tracks would not play to his strengths but am concerned that the problem he had at the end of last term are behind him yet
QE could end up in Ryanair the way hes being campaigned,have taken some big odds in case.
His jumping this season has been very good,if that continues hes a player in his chosen race i feel.
His jumping this season has been very good,if that continues hes a player in his chosen race i feel.
Next run will be the Irish Hennessey I think, which should sort out the trip question. But it's certainly yet to be proven that he stays. Clearly his jumping is getting better, but he still has to prove he can jump when put under pressure. He's a very short pric for the Gold Cup imo with so much doubt around him.
There are too many questions to answer before backing Quel Esprit. He could even go for a festival handicap, Ryanair or Gold cup. Possible he will be competitive in all, but which one. Appreciate if he runs in Irish Hennessy and goes close then his handicap mark will be blown, but on todays jog round it can't go up much.
whatever race he goes for, one thing is for certain he'll end up on the floor, this horse cant jump
Denman 85 and Strontium..I totally agree he is not a fluent fencer and can't have him jumping well in decent grade...2 odds on wins against poor opponents and on bad ground still haven't convinced me about his jumping at speed on good ground...(he is not fluent) If he goes to the Irish Hennessy he wouldn't be without a chance however with the Irish staying chasers looking so moderate...in regards to cheltenham it is going to be heart in the mouth stuff for his followers...that is guaranteed.
very surprised you say that harry, as i know you watch a lot of video form
if you watch his 2 novice championship races at chelt and punch his jumping was very fluent and neat
especially at chelt he winged most jumps and the couple he got in close to he corrected himself quickly. the reason he pulled himself to the front so early in the race was because of his brilliant jumping
i think people are saying/guessing he is a dodgy jumper is because he has got a couple of F's next to his name.watch him again and see what you think. an excellent 95-1 shot me thinks
if you watch his 2 novice championship races at chelt and punch his jumping was very fluent and neat
especially at chelt he winged most jumps and the couple he got in close to he corrected himself quickly. the reason he pulled himself to the front so early in the race was because of his brilliant jumping
i think people are saying/guessing he is a dodgy jumper is because he has got a couple of F's next to his name.watch him again and see what you think. an excellent 95-1 shot me thinks
Correct,
He jumped well in the RSA,yes he fell near the finish,but even the best jumpers can fall.His 2 runs this season he has hardly put a foot wrong and no way would i dismiss him cos of his jumping.
For me its a case of which race,but then hes been a big price for the GC and Ryanair,so ive backed him for both on here.
This horse i feel has got some real class,and i am quiet glad to have him on my side,especially at the prices that have been available.
Personally feel the Ryanair is more suited to him this season,think he would appreciate the shorter distance at this stage of his career before maybe stepping up next season.
He jumped well in the RSA,yes he fell near the finish,but even the best jumpers can fall.His 2 runs this season he has hardly put a foot wrong and no way would i dismiss him cos of his jumping.
For me its a case of which race,but then hes been a big price for the GC and Ryanair,so ive backed him for both on here.
This horse i feel has got some real class,and i am quiet glad to have him on my side,especially at the prices that have been available.
Personally feel the Ryanair is more suited to him this season,think he would appreciate the shorter distance at this stage of his career before maybe stepping up next season.
The thing i would be worried about with backing him for both is that not one bookie in the country has him priced up for the Ryanair but he is available at 40s (hills and sj) for the GC and is priced up by all firms for that. Being as he is 40 on here for the GC and 40/1 at books i would imagine at this stage it is the GC he is being aimed for! Though admittedly he is only 36 for the Ryanair which baffles me as to why no books have him priced up for that race, could it just be that people are taking the small amounts getting offered by layers whom have big smiles on their faces as respect to this, i do tend to always go with the exchanges/books when trying to second guess where one will run at the festival as regards to antepost bets and it is not often wrong!
well i have 80 for the Gold Cup,and 54 for the Ryanair,so yes i have lost out on one,but at those prices i wont have lost a lot as my stake can be lower.
I only backed him for the Ryanair when i saw the distance of races he was running in,made sense to me,although where he ends up is anyones guess,and with Mullins its likely we wont know for a while yet.
I only backed him for the Ryanair when i saw the distance of races he was running in,made sense to me,although where he ends up is anyones guess,and with Mullins its likely we wont know for a while yet.
I am about to nip out and have a little tickle on Quel and Burton Port for the GC both at 40s. Wont be backing Quel for the ryanair at all and if it is that race he goes for, well ive lost a point and i can justify it, he would be good enough to sneak a place in the GC imo. But then so is most of the field and is the reason why i like to sweep up all of these big prices at this stage as you always end up with most of the field backed at well under 100% making a nice profit in the mean time, god i love cheltenham in march! 
Well Brandy you said it, he is a 95-1 shot...I do watch a lot of video form and have watched him closely this season and he still is not fluent...That isn't to say he hasn't got ability but I would say he is going to hit one at some point during a race and still don't believe he has the ability to become a 175+ horse which he would have to run to, to get in the money at cheltenham...Just my opinion and he maybe able to win in decent grade in Ireland as the Chasers there are very moderate over staying distances...We will know more about him after he contests the Hennessy...ability wise that is...but if the ground is soft/heavy they won't go as quick and his jumping won't be put under the maximum scrutiny, like it will be in the Gold Cup...
If he were mine however he would be campaigned to run in the William Hill Trophy...Off of about 150 he would be of interest...just an opinion but that would be for me...
If he were mine however he would be campaigned to run in the William Hill Trophy...Off of about 150 he would be of interest...just an opinion but that would be for me...
Erm QE is only 40 on here to lay with plenty wanting to back at 50 now, so how is he a 95 shot? Or are you referring to the ryanair where he is only 36 currently where no one is willing to ask for a price?
Apologies I hadn't looked...brandy had said he was 95 which I thought was fair...umm 40's well wish you all the best...he obviously has the better price so apologies for that.
r66- trr great value? hes only got a make up 30l with the top 2?
I have backed TFR at the start of the season and believe his run against the top two is not to be taken literally. He has good cheltenham form and the trainer i think is deliberately keeping this horse away from the track and alike tracks until we see him at the festival, i believe he will come on bundles for every run this season and for that reason, (and my speculation about the track) i intend to go in again at 20s. (backed at 14s at the beginning of the season) He is just the type to run well without troubling the top two and could easily run a place.
As could so many others, at biggish double fig prices, and at 1/4 the odds for a place, why not, at this early stage one can afford to back many in the race. Just have to be good at second guessing trainers etc, i use betfair/bookies/news/rp website/attheraces websites etc as a guide!
I have
Long Run 11/4 - going in big cannot have him out of the front 2
Kauto Star 11/2, 5/1, 4/1 - going in bigger cannot have him not in the first 3
Captain Chris 16/1 - price wise pick, yes i no lol dont take pish hehe, but he does get a winner or two every year don't he? Is also a saver
The rest are also savers bets
Grand Crus 8/1 nrnb
Burton Port 40/1
TFR 14/1 (soon to again at 20s)
Quel Esprit 40/1
backed so far it is a back book i am not a layer lol though by the time the day comes round i will have the top 2 winning me money and the others losing me slightly but if i have a place backed also it will become profit
As could so many others, at biggish double fig prices, and at 1/4 the odds for a place, why not, at this early stage one can afford to back many in the race. Just have to be good at second guessing trainers etc, i use betfair/bookies/news/rp website/attheraces websites etc as a guide!
I have
Long Run 11/4 - going in big cannot have him out of the front 2
Kauto Star 11/2, 5/1, 4/1 - going in bigger cannot have him not in the first 3
Captain Chris 16/1 - price wise pick, yes i no lol dont take pish hehe, but he does get a winner or two every year don't he? Is also a saver
The rest are also savers bets
Grand Crus 8/1 nrnb
Burton Port 40/1
TFR 14/1 (soon to again at 20s)
Quel Esprit 40/1
backed so far
it is a back book i am not a layer lol though by the time the day comes round i will have the top 2 winning me money and the others losing me slightly but if i have a place backed also it will become profit
I thought he was great EW value last March at 20s not so sure now
Would you lay him EW at that price den? I wouldn't as he is one of the few that has the class and he jumps economically but I was really disappointed with him at Haydock
Would you lay him EW at that price den? I wouldn't as he is one of the few that has the class and he jumps economically but I was really disappointed with him at Haydock
seathe - he can win it.
Holes galore in the front 2 - he absolutely loves Chelters - simply ignore his RSA run as something was badly amiss from the 'Get Go' - and his new alliance with O'Regan could be a match made in heaven.
An absolute barrel of a horse - you wont see a horse with a bigger chest cavity.;he's getting better with each run this season.
He'll sit in front 2 or 3, take it up going out on the 2nd circuit and grind them downy- LR will probably either Unseat or Fall and KS probablt Pull Up.
Holes galore in the front 2 - he absolutely loves Chelters - simply ignore his RSA run as something was badly amiss from the 'Get Go' - and his new alliance with O'Regan could be a match made in heaven.
An absolute barrel of a horse - you wont see a horse with a bigger chest cavity.;he's getting better with each run this season.
He'll sit in front 2 or 3, take it up going out on the 2nd circuit and grind them downy- LR will probably either Unseat or Fall and KS probablt Pull Up.
In his last 4 races Long Run has won the two most presitigious Grade 1 chases of the year and come second in two more, only beaten by one of the greatest steeple chasers of all time. He's run in 12 chases, won 7 and never unplaced. Holes galore?
Regressing - his jumping is shocking atm and not good enough to win Grade 1 chases - he's fallen back into the habit of running into the bottom of them and snatching his head up as he takes off - something may be hurting him.
His massive engine is getting him close, but he may just be starting to sour like a lot of precocious French geldings do.
Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see blinkers on him soon.
His massive engine is getting him close, but he may just be starting to sour like a lot of precocious French geldings do.
Wouldn't be entirely surprised to see blinkers on him soon.
I am no great fan of Long Run but i do not agree he is regressing as his jumping is spot on at his normal cruising speed but as soon as you put pace to the race it goes to pot. He is an out and out stayer with a big engine which loves to go his own pace. Much like Denman but with a lower cruising speed but will and can outstay anything over the gold cup trip and still be able to quicken up the hill. Look at his paddy power run, his jumping went to pot as soon as the pace quickened, he won the KG that year, he made it look effortlessly but he was niggled down the back straight and got in close to a couple then too, KS was having an off season then and Riverside theatre is just short of his class. Now look at that years gold cup, he could not go with the front two, (denman and Kauto) until almost 2 out where he then oustayed them up the hill. SWC obviously wise to the fact he cannot jump at pace, to which Paul Nichols and Ruby have now obviously come wise to and this is how they have beaten him twice this season already.
So it is quite ludicrous to say LR is past imvho!
So it is quite ludicrous to say LR is past imvho!
I've never backed Long Run but it's difficult to say he's regressing. He was 17 lengths clear of the third, Arkle winner, Caotain Chris, in The King George, running virtually to the pound on official marks and he and Kauto Star have finished first and second in the only two Grade 1 3 mile chases to be run this season in England. I'd agree his jumping's not been great but it wasn't the best last year. He fiddles a few, hits a few and jumps a few OK but his biggest asset is his engine and he's edging towards a backable price. I'd take 3-1 on the day, which I can see him being.
To say there are holes in the front two is surely a wind up, they're both miles clear of the rest and repeatedly show a similar level of form and are past winners of the race. I'm not really sure what is expected of them.
I know as punters we're always trying to find one to beat the favourites but think there'll be better chances at the prices than this race at the festival.
As for Time For Rupert, the only form I can see which would put him within hailing distance is his World Hurdle form of two seasons ago which probably sums up his chance and I see only Grands Crus as the horse who could challenge the top two.
To say there are holes in the front two is surely a wind up, they're both miles clear of the rest and repeatedly show a similar level of form and are past winners of the race. I'm not really sure what is expected of them.
I know as punters we're always trying to find one to beat the favourites but think there'll be better chances at the prices than this race at the festival.
As for Time For Rupert, the only form I can see which would put him within hailing distance is his World Hurdle form of two seasons ago which probably sums up his chance and I see only Grands Crus as the horse who could challenge the top two.
r66 how are there holes in the top two, ones just won the king george and the other gold cup this year, thre clearly country miles ahead of anything else in the field, we seen how good time for rupert and captain chirs are on there last races still 20 - 30 lengths to make up, also long run will improve for the gold cup with step up in distance in his favour, there only one winner if he doesnt fall and thats long run quite simple, if he jumps average he wins nothing else is as good, and thats the top and bottom of it
wish it was as simple as that denman ! if it was that simple we would all be millyonaires long ago .
so foyleswar, if long run jumps well, which horse can possibly beat him?
if long run jumps well , well he always seems to make at least 1-2 mistakes last year he came up against kauto and denman who were not at thier best for varying reasons ,age?/ not quite right?/ and i had backed long run in the gold cup and before 2 out he was looking as tho 3rd place at best but to his credit he stayed on ,but it may be a stronger race this year. true it does look on paper as tho kauto or long run have the best form this seaso but they have had hard races , what i am saying is things are never as cut and dried as they may look he or kauto may well win ....my take on it is captain chris may improve and be suited by the trip, i might be pocket talking (a chance he wont stay granted )but the bookies are offering odds of around 3/1 long run ,i think if they thought that it was cut and dried long run would be much shorter, if kauto or long run win i will be on and saying well done you got it right .
i dont think kauto will win, i only see one outcome all granted a half decent round of jumping, kautos win in kg was impressive but long run jumped awful, had he jumped the last he'd of won, had the distance been any longer he wud of won, he'll definately get the further distance in gold cup, just hope he can jump average and he wins for me, every thing else competing for 2nd place, i back long run on day last year, even though he didnt jump brillant he still won, and denman is not in race which weakens it in my view as he was still in top 3, three milers around,
Denman,
if Long Run jumps well? by that statement you are implying his jumping is iffy,would that not constitute a hole in him??
if Long Run jumps well? by that statement you are implying his jumping is iffy,would that not constitute a hole in him??
well to win a gold cup u have to jump decent, last year he wasnt brilliant but still jumped well enough to win, id take a decent round of jumping, were as kauto jumnped outstanding in kg, if long run were to jump like tht although its arguable that he aint capable of jumping as good as that he wud win by a mile, as it is he jumnping isnt perfect but hes got the engine to leave good horses miles behind wiv the average jumping factored in, i think hes a worthy favourite, and kauto is still ahead of the rest behind
I think that's basically right Denman. LR is far and away the most likely winner, Kauto second. They both may lose, horse racing is like that, but they are worthy 1st and 2nd favourties and it will likely take a good performance to beat them. It really is a race where the obvious contenders are, well, obvious.
Jumping will dictate the winner this year in my opinion. I didn't mind taking a shortish price about Best Mate because his jumping was assured if not flashy. I find it a lot harder to take the current prices for Long Run and Kauto.
As much as the obvious contenders are obvious - I really want to take them on. The problem is finding one to do it with. I can't have Synchronised or any of the Irish so I can understand why they might have a pop at the race with Grand Crus as it might not take much winning if the front 2 don't perform. That said he is only 7/1 with a run.
For me it will have to be Weird Al, Jessies Dream and TFR EW at 20/1 NRNB to get my money back if one of them is in the first 3 but I can't help but feel if I want to make money I am betting for the GC to be a bad one.
As much as the obvious contenders are obvious - I really want to take them on. The problem is finding one to do it with. I can't have Synchronised or any of the Irish so I can understand why they might have a pop at the race with Grand Crus as it might not take much winning if the front 2 don't perform. That said he is only 7/1 with a run.
For me it will have to be Weird Al, Jessies Dream and TFR EW at 20/1 NRNB to get my money back if one of them is in the first 3 but I can't help but feel if I want to make money I am betting for the GC to be a bad one.
FWIW I think the people dismissing Synchronised largely because, well, it's Synchronised innit? (a tempting conclusion, admittedly), need to have another look at the horse. Although it feels like he's been plodding around for ever and can't have suddenly improved from decent long distance handicapper into Grade 1 horse, he actually won the Midlands National on his 4th start over fences, the Welsh National on his fifth and the Lexus on his eighth. Quite an achievement. The number of previous Chase starts of the last ten Gold Cup winners looks like this, 6-9-12-11-9-10-8-20-9-9 (not my work, btw), so he'll be going into the Gold Cup with 8 or 9 starts behind him - exactly the profile you'd want for a horse that's about to put up a career best. No surprise, then, that he's still on a strong upward curve and with no doubts about jumping or stamina (unlike the front two) he looks a real player to me, although the price has gone and I doubt he'll be much shorter on the day if Kauto and Long Run turn up.
Perhaps I am dismissing Synchronised, but to my eyes in the Lexus it was being pushed along after 3 out if not before and outstayed a poor bunch. Jumping 2 out, you would have had the house on Rubi Light, but he never got home and the rest are very poor in Ireland this year. He maybe better than I think, but he beat nothing IMO.
I don't think he beat much either....but there wasn't much missing from the race from that side of the Irish sea. The uncomfortable truth is the Irish stayers are pants and the English barring LR and KS aren't much better. We should also remember the Lexus was over 3m. Over the Gold Cup trip of 3m 2 1/2f Synchronised would have won by at least ten lengths, probably 20 and possibly 30 
Synchronised will be very hard to keep out of the frame imo.
Synchronised will be very hard to keep out of the frame imo.
headmaster, synchcronised has a chance of running into a place at best, he aint got the speed to go wiv kauto and long run, his best hope is passing tired horses late on but by then he'll be out the back outpaced anyway, his price is a joke, if he was to win the gold cup i would pack in all gambling all together, top 5 at best for me
Synchronised was being pushed along from the start when he won the Midlands National - cracking McCoy ride - so I wouldn't worry overly about him being pushed along early.
I also think he'll be shorter on the day - he's owned by JP, who's likely to have a huge bet, and he'll be ridden by AP. Remember Kempes went off around 10/1 last year.
All that said, his current price is too short for me and like others I see him as placed at best.
I also think he'll be shorter on the day - he's owned by JP, who's likely to have a huge bet, and he'll be ridden by AP. Remember Kempes went off around 10/1 last year.
All that said, his current price is too short for me and like others I see him as placed at best.
Headmaster wrote "The number of previous Chase starts of the last ten Gold Cup winners looks like this, 6-9-12-11-9-10-8-20-9-9 (not my work, btw), so he'll be going into the Gold Cup with 8 or 9 starts behind him - exactly the profile you'd want for a horse that's about to put up a career best."
Incidentally, I think this is an important and often overlooked consideration. Strictly, it counts against the first 3 in ther market, though the "20" who bucked the trend was Kauto Star. It strongly counts against Grands Crus imo. Long Run will probably be at 13 come the Gold Cup.
Incidentally, I think this is an important and often overlooked consideration. Strictly, it counts against the first 3 in ther market, though the "20" who bucked the trend was Kauto Star. It strongly counts against Grands Crus imo. Long Run will probably be at 13 come the Gold Cup.
I disagree with you, denman. If you watch the race again you'll note Long Run didn't have the speed to go with Kauto and Denman last season when they turned the taps on. Stamina won the day, as it generally does in this race. Kauto emptied out noticeably towards the end and although I wouldn't have Synchro on my mind if this was 3 miles round Kempton, I rather suspect this track and trip will provide a different result. Ruby has a very difficult task at hand imo.
The Headmaster...fair play to you, you have certainly put up a really good case for the horse...
I have to say I am not in the horses camp as feel he achieved an inflated rating against a non stayer and a horse who is as slow as a boat last time...I have to say I would like to see him again before the race just to confirm my reservations...one thing that is for certain though, he is a good jumper who stays all day...I suppose the most potent point for me, is the fact of how he as always been campaigned as a national type, but I suppose that is your point in regards to the fact he has won over 3 miles and we know he stays all day...the trip will suit its just whether he has the class to hang on in there when the pace is on...
the case continues...
I have to say I am not in the horses camp as feel he achieved an inflated rating against a non stayer and a horse who is as slow as a boat last time...I have to say I would like to see him again before the race just to confirm my reservations...one thing that is for certain though, he is a good jumper who stays all day...I suppose the most potent point for me, is the fact of how he as always been campaigned as a national type, but I suppose that is your point in regards to the fact he has won over 3 miles and we know he stays all day...the trip will suit its just whether he has the class to hang on in there when the pace is on...
the case continues...
Weird Al. Decent course form. Goes well fresh and put away till March. Change of stable. Running on well in betfair. Very keen
Weird Al. Decent course form. Goes well fresh and put away till March. Change of stable. Running on well in betfair. Very keen
1.Time For Rupert
2.Weird Al
3. Synchronised
F Long Run
PU Kauto Star
2.Weird Al
3. Synchronised
F Long Run
PU Kauto Star
Interesting to read that Sam W-C hasn't ridden a winner under rules since the Gold Cup!
Yes Strontium and due to his bans he probably won't ride 1 before this years GC. Good luck to him though, if he gets narrowly beat, it will be classed as his fault and maybe LR would be better with Geraghty, but we won't find out.
The horse was bought for Sam to ride - that's just part of the package you have to accept if you want to back it. Unusual for modern racing (though not so at all historically), but the way it is.
I have just backed Quel Esprit e/w at 40/1.
I know his jumping is a massively huge issue, but I'm willing to take the chance.
I know his jumping is a massively huge issue, but I'm willing to take the chance.
As for Synchronised, imagine Sadlers Wells siring a GC winner to go with everything else. That would be fantastic.
Agree with you re Synchrosmised, Headmaster. Welsh National winners have a history of running well in the Gold Cup, I guess because both races are run on similar tracks and are a stamina test.
It is also worth pointing out that the last time Jonjo won the Lexus was with Exotic Dancer who himself progressed from handicaps.
It is also worth pointing out that the last time Jonjo won the Lexus was with Exotic Dancer who himself progressed from handicaps.
Poor old, Exotic, sint. Worse horses than him have won a Gold Cup.....one of them won three!
Paul Nicholls, today -
"He came out of his box this morning, even with the temperature at -1, with a real spring in his step and I can tell you now that I have never seen the horse look better. Never. He looked superb in his coat and if you thought he looked in great condition in the paddock at Kempton on Boxing Day, then you really should have been here this morning. He looked magnificent. He has come out of the race unbelievably well, has put on weight after Kempton, and Clifford can't believe how fresh he is. In truth, we would have liked to have done a little less with him, but he is so well in himself that we had to get him back cantering much earlier than we expected. He is in a real good place at the moment and if I can get him to Cheltenham on March 16 in the same kind of form he is in at the moment, then I will be a very happy man."
The trainer may be given to hyperbole, but he is not one to normally peak his festival horses too soon, so the signs for supporters look good!
"He came out of his box this morning, even with the temperature at -1, with a real spring in his step and I can tell you now that I have never seen the horse look better. Never. He looked superb in his coat and if you thought he looked in great condition in the paddock at Kempton on Boxing Day, then you really should have been here this morning. He looked magnificent. He has come out of the race unbelievably well, has put on weight after Kempton, and Clifford can't believe how fresh he is. In truth, we would have liked to have done a little less with him, but he is so well in himself that we had to get him back cantering much earlier than we expected. He is in a real good place at the moment and if I can get him to Cheltenham on March 16 in the same kind of form he is in at the moment, then I will be a very happy man."
The trainer may be given to hyperbole, but he is not one to normally peak his festival horses too soon, so the signs for supporters look good!
Thats good news.
Really think if you had backed Kauto after Haydock and are in a position to back Long Run,you are sitting pretty.
They are a fair way ahead of anything else.
I have backed some big prices early doors,as i werent sure about Long Run,but Kauto has thrown a huge spanner in the works.
Think one of them is very likely to run his race and if thats so,one of them must win imo.
Really think if you had backed Kauto after Haydock and are in a position to back Long Run,you are sitting pretty.
They are a fair way ahead of anything else.
I have backed some big prices early doors,as i werent sure about Long Run,but Kauto has thrown a huge spanner in the works.
Think one of them is very likely to run his race and if thats so,one of them must win imo.
Bud, RC he might look great, but he's still 12. I would love to see him win, but not for me, and Long Run doesn't look as good as last year. Form suggests either, but I believe they'll both fall short. Stats too strong.
So this seasons form which sees them a fair way ahead is ignored for Stats!! STATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stuff that,i will take the form and my own eyes.
Stuff that,i will take the form and my own eyes.
The day i back horses cos of stats is the day i stop.
No offence,but you can stick yer stats.
No offence,but you can stick yer stats.
shockster- let me tell u something , with the course as it is now, i.e decent ground most of the time, 12/1 shots dont win the gold cup anymore! hasnt been done for 12 years and to be honest cant see t happening for another 12! stick with the best horses in the race instead of looking for alternatives! the first 3 in the betting ill gurantee the winner will come from there! all this **** about horses like quel esprit been great bet cud win! let me tell u something unless kauto or long run lose a leg , quel esprit cannot beat them, its really not possible and that is a fact
I'm a bit like you Bud, but GC is different as it takes such a lot of winning. Only Best Mate has retained GC in last 40yrs, not even Kauto or Denman could do it, admittedly Long Run is younger than most. Only Kauto has ever regained it and now at 12 you expect him to do it again. On top of this these 2 have had 2 really hard races this time and I am sorry but I don't believe Kauto has improved being 12 which says to me that Long Run has gone backwards. yes on form they are still the best, but I'm sure something fresher and less battle scarred will get them at Cheltenham. Kauto win or not will always be a great.
agree with shockster here kauto and long run have the best form and are the top 2 in the betting rightly so, but we have mitigating circumstaces here in that kauto is a 12 yo and has had 2 hard races this season , and long run has jumping issues and may not be as good as last year and also has had 2 hard races . on paper it looks cut and dried kauto or long run should win ,hell they only have to turn up and one of them wins ,
but as i have seen many times if something looks too good to be true then it usually is .
but as i have seen many times if something looks too good to be true then it usually is .
haha 2 hard races! ffs they'll av had 3 months off by the time festvial come around, this is becoming laughable, never heard so much crap
well,each to their own,no problem with people using stats if thats their way.
Personally i dont care how old a horse is or whether a horse is trying to do something not done often,if hardly ever.
All that bothers me is their form going into the race.
I look at the other candidates and what i think any of them can achieve with improvement,different conditions etc,and am really struggling to find another realistic candidate.
What i see is 2 horses head and shoulders above any of the opposition,a few non stayers and some that are not yet in the same league.Maybe one or 2 of them might suddenly stay or improve enough by March,but i have large doubts they will.
Personally i dont care how old a horse is or whether a horse is trying to do something not done often,if hardly ever.
All that bothers me is their form going into the race.
I look at the other candidates and what i think any of them can achieve with improvement,different conditions etc,and am really struggling to find another realistic candidate.
What i see is 2 horses head and shoulders above any of the opposition,a few non stayers and some that are not yet in the same league.Maybe one or 2 of them might suddenly stay or improve enough by March,but i have large doubts they will.
kauto and long run are miles ahead of anything else, long run has kautos measure over the gold cup trip imo, shud of beat him had he jumped the last at kempton, ill be going big on long run again as i feel he can win even not at his best
Well Denman you better hope he runs to his best unlike the 2 efforts already or he WILL get beat. If he runs to 180 then I think your counting your winnings but I have my doubts that he can.
id be happy if he ran like he did at kempton even though he jumped awful, had the race been another 3 furlongs, which is what he'll get in the gold cup hed have won comfortably
What rating does the 3rd best horse have in the Gold Cup?
Just out of interest,to see how far off their ratings LR and KS can afford to be,for them not to win on current ratings.
Just out of interest,to see how far off their ratings LR and KS can afford to be,for them not to win on current ratings.
captain chris 164? the only way he goe past if they both fall
I've said before I fancy What A Friend. Nicholls has said going there fresh and being trained for the race. Finished a nose behind Kauto in last years GC. As I don't think Kauto has improved and Long Run slightly deteriorated, he'll do for me at 10 times the price and previosly a lot bigger.
so is that right,they are over a stone better in the ratings than the next best?
I am not a big ratings man myself,but even i would struggle to justify to myself that one of them wont win.
Still this aint an exact science,and things dont always go the way we think they will.Its just hard for me to see both of them getting beat.
I am not a big ratings man myself,but even i would struggle to justify to myself that one of them wont win.
Still this aint an exact science,and things dont always go the way we think they will.Its just hard for me to see both of them getting beat.
That's the official handicappers version Bud. If he were right all the time, then nothing would bother to tuen up.
what happens if juniour makes the strong pace and grand cru switches off nicely and gets a nice rhythm...now thats a race..
shockster , what a friend wont be far off a place, but he ran the race of his life in last eyr gold cup and cudnt get within 11 lengths of the winner
There's a lovely line in a recent article by Richard Forrsital "you don't apply conventional logic to an immortal."
it wud be a race if grand crus improved 2 stone! as it is its a no contest!
Tweed - Junior not in same league. Won well at festival, but that was 3rd div now Premier league. Was previously hammered by Midnight Chase also, who could only lead last year for a circuit.
Agree Shock,thats why i aint a big ratings man.Prefer to use my own eyes and judgement.
They are a fair way ahead though.
They are a fair way ahead though.
tweed - if that happens, Grands crus gets run of his feet and Long Run mops up.
Incidentally sstats fans - the race being won by something within 8 lb of top RPR is another very strong stat. Some blockbuster stat is going to have to give this season. Rather like last season in fact.
Incidentally sstats fans - the race being won by something within 8 lb of top RPR is another very strong stat. Some blockbuster stat is going to have to give this season. Rather like last season in fact.
Actually not a stat man at all but this race has served me well about repeat winners. If here and now I had to put my life on the race I would select Long Run. However the stakes aren't so high and I'll stick with WAF.
how cud u be happy wiv captain chris, he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
how cud u be happy wiv captain chris, he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
how cud you be happy wiv captain chris ,he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
for a start hobbs has said he wasnt right at kempton ,i.e he didnt jump or travel as he usually does in his races ,he missed work and if the king george was a week before he would not have made it, hobbs words not mine by the way.
judgeing by last years arkle he looks to me as though he needs further , and has not had much racing so could have huge impovement and the trip may actually suit him . he may or may not stay we will see but at the odds i have backed him at i am happy .
for a start hobbs has said he wasnt right at kempton ,i.e he didnt jump or travel as he usually does in his races ,he missed work and if the king george was a week before he would not have made it, hobbs words not mine by the way.
judgeing by last years arkle he looks to me as though he needs further , and has not had much racing so could have huge impovement and the trip may actually suit him . he may or may not stay we will see but at the odds i have backed him at i am happy .
I think the only straw you can clutch at is that Captain Chris improved dramatically at this time last year and seems much better in the spring but you need some imagination to see him beating the front 2 really.
Shockster, just a quick reply, I do not fancy Kauto for this.
I think Nicholls and Walsh have found the key to getting Long Run beat. A fast pace. That worked over 3 miles but I'm not so sure it's going to work in a Gold Cup. In my opinion ( and this might sound a bit daft for a 2 time GC Winner ) I'm not sure Kauto truly gets a fast run 3m 2f. Last year and the year Denman won I don't think it fully stayed. So Ruby might have to turn it into a tactical affair. But I think if they go like the clappers from the off I'm not convinced Kauto will win. Long Run if it stays on its feet beats Kauto for me at Cheltenham.
Shockster. I totally agree with your sentiments about WAF. Nicholls knows whats required and his price compared to Kauto's for the difference of a nose is incredible.If there is any mention of soft in the going description come the day I would expect WAF to finish in front of Kauto
Kauto will need genuine good ground to be seen at his best IMO, as I think he will struggle to stay on anything softer. Long Run looks the pick but his jumping leaves a lot to desired.
I can see an upset this year and I would not be surprised if it was WAF or Carruthers whose closely matched with WAF from a couple of seasons ago
Kauto will need genuine good ground to be seen at his best IMO, as I think he will struggle to stay on anything softer. Long Run looks the pick but his jumping leaves a lot to desired.
I can see an upset this year and I would not be surprised if it was WAF or Carruthers whose closely matched with WAF from a couple of seasons ago
You'd think it'd be between the two but I wouldn't rule out Quel Esprit, was looking like the winner in the RSA before falling, will likely be tested in the Irish Hennessy and if he wins that he puts himself right in the frame
if either carruthers or waf wins a gold cup il give the game up.
yeh,on all we know about those 2,it would have to be a poor Gold Cup for those to win it.
Hello CV my ol mate,where you been these last few months?
you've been missed my friend.
Hello CV my ol mate,where you been these last few months?
you've been missed my friend.
Hey bud, I'm off traveling the world, been away for over 6 months now, thought it was they right way to spend all my winnings and quit my annoying banking job
Having a rest day or two here in Peru and doing my homework on the festival, I'm headed to all 4 days this year and get home 2 weeks before it starts
Already have an ap book going, but 99% of my posting is done with the rest of the krew on our own site, AR is a mod
I'll try post my thoughts in a preview or three at some point
Having a rest day or two here in Peru and doing my homework on the festival, I'm headed to all 4 days this year and get home 2 weeks before it starts
Already have an ap book going, but 99% of my posting is done with the rest of the krew on our own site, AR is a mod
I'll try post my thoughts in a preview or three at some point
Look forward to reading that mate.
Well done on quitting yr annoying job,wish i could afford to do the same.
Good luck with the rest of your travels.
Well done on quitting yr annoying job,wish i could afford to do the same.
Good luck with the rest of your travels.
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