Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 149 comments are related to the topic:
Is the Gold Cup between Kauto Star and Long Run
Is the Gold Cup between Kauto Star and Long Run
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 149
|
By:
r66 how are there holes in the top two, ones just won the king george and the other gold cup this year, thre clearly country miles ahead of anything else in the field, we seen how good time for rupert and captain chirs are on there last races still 20 - 30 lengths to make up, also long run will improve for the gold cup with step up in distance in his favour, there only one winner if he doesnt fall and thats long run quite simple, if he jumps average he wins nothing else is as good, and thats the top and bottom of it
|
|
By:
wish it was as simple as that denman ! if it was that simple we would all be millyonaires long ago .
|
|
By:
so foyleswar, if long run jumps well, which horse can possibly beat him?
|
|
By:
if long run jumps well , well he always seems to make at least 1-2 mistakes last year he came up against kauto and denman who were not at thier best for varying reasons ,age?/ not quite right?/ and i had backed long run in the gold cup and before 2 out he was looking as tho 3rd place at best but to his credit he stayed on ,but it may be a stronger race this year. true it does look on paper as tho kauto or long run have the best form this seaso but they have had hard races , what i am saying is things are never as cut and dried as they may look he or kauto may well win ....my take on it is captain chris may improve and be suited by the trip, i might be pocket talking (a chance he wont stay granted )but the bookies are offering odds of around 3/1 long run ,i think if they thought that it was cut and dried long run would be much shorter, if kauto or long run win i will be on and saying well done you got it right .
|
|
By:
i dont think kauto will win, i only see one outcome all granted a half decent round of jumping, kautos win in kg was impressive but long run jumped awful, had he jumped the last he'd of won, had the distance been any longer he wud of won, he'll definately get the further distance in gold cup, just hope he can jump average and he wins for me, every thing else competing for 2nd place, i back long run on day last year, even though he didnt jump brillant he still won, and denman is not in race which weakens it in my view as he was still in top 3, three milers around,
|
|
By:
Denman,
if Long Run jumps well? by that statement you are implying his jumping is iffy,would that not constitute a hole in him?? |
|
By:
well to win a gold cup u have to jump decent, last year he wasnt brilliant but still jumped well enough to win, id take a decent round of jumping, were as kauto jumnped outstanding in kg, if long run were to jump like tht although its arguable that he aint capable of jumping as good as that he wud win by a mile, as it is he jumnping isnt perfect but hes got the engine to leave good horses miles behind wiv the average jumping factored in, i think hes a worthy favourite, and kauto is still ahead of the rest behind
|
|
By:
I think that's basically right Denman. LR is far and away the most likely winner, Kauto second. They both may lose, horse racing is like that, but they are worthy 1st and 2nd favourties and it will likely take a good performance to beat them. It really is a race where the obvious contenders are, well, obvious.
|
|
By:
Jumping will dictate the winner this year in my opinion. I didn't mind taking a shortish price about Best Mate because his jumping was assured if not flashy. I find it a lot harder to take the current prices for Long Run and Kauto.
As much as the obvious contenders are obvious - I really want to take them on. The problem is finding one to do it with. I can't have Synchronised or any of the Irish so I can understand why they might have a pop at the race with Grand Crus as it might not take much winning if the front 2 don't perform. That said he is only 7/1 with a run. For me it will have to be Weird Al, Jessies Dream and TFR EW at 20/1 NRNB to get my money back if one of them is in the first 3 but I can't help but feel if I want to make money I am betting for the GC to be a bad one. |
|
By:
FWIW I think the people dismissing Synchronised largely because, well, it's Synchronised innit? (a tempting conclusion, admittedly), need to have another look at the horse. Although it feels like he's been plodding around for ever and can't have suddenly improved from decent long distance handicapper into Grade 1 horse, he actually won the Midlands National on his 4th start over fences, the Welsh National on his fifth and the Lexus on his eighth. Quite an achievement. The number of previous Chase starts of the last ten Gold Cup winners looks like this, 6-9-12-11-9-10-8-20-9-9 (not my work, btw), so he'll be going into the Gold Cup with 8 or 9 starts behind him - exactly the profile you'd want for a horse that's about to put up a career best. No surprise, then, that he's still on a strong upward curve and with no doubts about jumping or stamina (unlike the front two) he looks a real player to me, although the price has gone and I doubt he'll be much shorter on the day if Kauto and Long Run turn up.
|
|
By:
Perhaps I am dismissing Synchronised, but to my eyes in the Lexus it was being pushed along after 3 out if not before and outstayed a poor bunch. Jumping 2 out, you would have had the house on Rubi Light, but he never got home and the rest are very poor in Ireland this year. He maybe better than I think, but he beat nothing IMO.
|
|
By:
I don't think he beat much either....but there wasn't much missing from the race from that side of the Irish sea. The uncomfortable truth is the Irish stayers are pants and the English barring LR and KS aren't much better. We should also remember the Lexus was over 3m. Over the Gold Cup trip of 3m 2 1/2f Synchronised would have won by at least ten lengths, probably 20 and possibly 30
 Synchronised will be very hard to keep out of the frame imo. |
|
By:
headmaster, synchcronised has a chance of running into a place at best, he aint got the speed to go wiv kauto and long run, his best hope is passing tired horses late on but by then he'll be out the back outpaced anyway, his price is a joke, if he was to win the gold cup i would pack in all gambling all together, top 5 at best for me
|
|
By:
Synchronised was being pushed along from the start when he won the Midlands National - cracking McCoy ride - so I wouldn't worry overly about him being pushed along early.
I also think he'll be shorter on the day - he's owned by JP, who's likely to have a huge bet, and he'll be ridden by AP. Remember Kempes went off around 10/1 last year. All that said, his current price is too short for me and like others I see him as placed at best. |
|
By:
Headmaster wrote "The number of previous Chase starts of the last ten Gold Cup winners looks like this, 6-9-12-11-9-10-8-20-9-9 (not my work, btw), so he'll be going into the Gold Cup with 8 or 9 starts behind him - exactly the profile you'd want for a horse that's about to put up a career best."
Incidentally, I think this is an important and often overlooked consideration. Strictly, it counts against the first 3 in ther market, though the "20" who bucked the trend was Kauto Star. It strongly counts against Grands Crus imo. Long Run will probably be at 13 come the Gold Cup. |
|
By:
I disagree with you, denman. If you watch the race again you'll note Long Run didn't have the speed to go with Kauto and Denman last season when they turned the taps on. Stamina won the day, as it generally does in this race. Kauto emptied out noticeably towards the end and although I wouldn't have Synchro on my mind if this was 3 miles round Kempton, I rather suspect this track and trip will provide a different result. Ruby has a very difficult task at hand imo.
|
|
By:
The Headmaster...fair play to you, you have certainly put up a really good case for the horse...
I have to say I am not in the horses camp as feel he achieved an inflated rating against a non stayer and a horse who is as slow as a boat last time...I have to say I would like to see him again before the race just to confirm my reservations...one thing that is for certain though, he is a good jumper who stays all day...I suppose the most potent point for me, is the fact of how he as always been campaigned as a national type, but I suppose that is your point in regards to the fact he has won over 3 miles and we know he stays all day...the trip will suit its just whether he has the class to hang on in there when the pace is on... the case continues... |
|
By:
Weird Al. Decent course form. Goes well fresh and put away till March. Change of stable. Running on well in betfair. Very keen
|
|
By:
Weird Al. Decent course form. Goes well fresh and put away till March. Change of stable. Running on well in betfair. Very keen
|
|
By:
1.Time For Rupert
2.Weird Al 3. Synchronised F Long Run PU Kauto Star |
|
By:
Interesting to read that Sam W-C hasn't ridden a winner under rules since the Gold Cup!
|
|
By:
Yes Strontium and due to his bans he probably won't ride 1 before this years GC. Good luck to him though, if he gets narrowly beat, it will be classed as his fault and maybe LR would be better with Geraghty, but we won't find out.
|
|
By:
The horse was bought for Sam to ride - that's just part of the package you have to accept if you want to back it. Unusual for modern racing (though not so at all historically), but the way it is.
|
|
By:
I agree and fair play to them.
|
|
By:
I have just backed Quel Esprit e/w at 40/1.
I know his jumping is a massively huge issue, but I'm willing to take the chance. |
|
By:
As for Synchronised, imagine Sadlers Wells siring a GC winner to go with everything else. That would be fantastic.
|
|
By:
Agree with you re Synchrosmised, Headmaster. Welsh National winners have a history of running well in the Gold Cup, I guess because both races are run on similar tracks and are a stamina test.
It is also worth pointing out that the last time Jonjo won the Lexus was with Exotic Dancer who himself progressed from handicaps. |
|
By:
Poor old, Exotic, sint. Worse horses than him have won a Gold Cup.....one of them won three!
|
|
By:
Paul Nicholls, today -
"He came out of his box this morning, even with the temperature at -1, with a real spring in his step and I can tell you now that I have never seen the horse look better. Never. He looked superb in his coat and if you thought he looked in great condition in the paddock at Kempton on Boxing Day, then you really should have been here this morning. He looked magnificent. He has come out of the race unbelievably well, has put on weight after Kempton, and Clifford can't believe how fresh he is. In truth, we would have liked to have done a little less with him, but he is so well in himself that we had to get him back cantering much earlier than we expected. He is in a real good place at the moment and if I can get him to Cheltenham on March 16 in the same kind of form he is in at the moment, then I will be a very happy man." The trainer may be given to hyperbole, but he is not one to normally peak his festival horses too soon, so the signs for supporters look good! |
|
By:
Thats good news.
Really think if you had backed Kauto after Haydock and are in a position to back Long Run,you are sitting pretty. They are a fair way ahead of anything else. I have backed some big prices early doors,as i werent sure about Long Run,but Kauto has thrown a huge spanner in the works. Think one of them is very likely to run his race and if thats so,one of them must win imo. |
|
By:
Bud, RC he might look great, but he's still 12. I would love to see him win, but not for me, and Long Run doesn't look as good as last year. Form suggests either, but I believe they'll both fall short. Stats too strong.
|
|
By:
So this seasons form which sees them a fair way ahead is ignored for Stats!! STATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stuff that,i will take the form and my own eyes. |
|
By:
The day i back horses cos of stats is the day i stop.
No offence,but you can stick yer stats. |
|
By:
shockster- let me tell u something , with the course as it is now, i.e decent ground most of the time, 12/1 shots dont win the gold cup anymore! hasnt been done for 12 years and to be honest cant see t happening for another 12! stick with the best horses in the race instead of looking for alternatives! the first 3 in the betting ill gurantee the winner will come from there! all this **** about horses like quel esprit been great bet cud win! let me tell u something unless kauto or long run lose a leg , quel esprit cannot beat them, its really not possible and that is a fact
|
|
By:
I'm a bit like you Bud, but GC is different as it takes such a lot of winning. Only Best Mate has retained GC in last 40yrs, not even Kauto or Denman could do it, admittedly Long Run is younger than most. Only Kauto has ever regained it and now at 12 you expect him to do it again. On top of this these 2 have had 2 really hard races this time and I am sorry but I don't believe Kauto has improved being 12 which says to me that Long Run has gone backwards. yes on form they are still the best, but I'm sure something fresher and less battle scarred will get them at Cheltenham. Kauto win or not will always be a great.
|
|
By:
agree with shockster here kauto and long run have the best form and are the top 2 in the betting rightly so, but we have mitigating circumstaces here in that kauto is a 12 yo and has had 2 hard races this season , and long run has jumping issues and may not be as good as last year and also has had 2 hard races . on paper it looks cut and dried kauto or long run should win ,hell they only have to turn up and one of them wins ,
but as i have seen many times if something looks too good to be true then it usually is . |
|
By:
haha 2 hard races! ffs they'll av had 3 months off by the time festvial come around, this is becoming laughable, never heard so much crap
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
well,each to their own,no problem with people using stats if thats their way.
Personally i dont care how old a horse is or whether a horse is trying to do something not done often,if hardly ever. All that bothers me is their form going into the race. I look at the other candidates and what i think any of them can achieve with improvement,different conditions etc,and am really struggling to find another realistic candidate. What i see is 2 horses head and shoulders above any of the opposition,a few non stayers and some that are not yet in the same league.Maybe one or 2 of them might suddenly stay or improve enough by March,but i have large doubts they will. |
|
By:
kauto and long run are miles ahead of anything else, long run has kautos measure over the gold cup trip imo, shud of beat him had he jumped the last at kempton, ill be going big on long run again as i feel he can win even not at his best
|