Thanks, just found the same on Racing Post website. It's impossible to compare the 2 horses but I think he's up to winning off that mark and it's definitely more common for a top class horse to win big handicaps off a high weight than used to be the case when they would trot round in races like The Mandarin Chase at Newbury (before it changed to a handicap) and the races at Sandown and Wincanton in February which were always the recognised Gold Cup trials.

It would certainly depend how good the field is but I suspect they think he is a fair chunk better than 159.

Nacarat was a half-length second in the race off 158 fairly recently, so doesn't seem insurmountable.

Sure he's well in, but I doubt by 20 lbs at this stage - Maybe 7-10. And it doesn't matter that he's well handicapped if there's something better handicapped lower in the weights, which is always a chance in a race like this.

I think he's unlikely to go for the RP chase anyway, not because of any handicap issue but because it's only 3 weeks before the Festival and they probably want to run him in the Argento to see how he stacks up against Grade 1 or 2 quality horses.

Incidentally, I've read that Jessies is likley to come over the Aon on Feb 11th - if so I guess he's unlikley for the RP chase.

My point about Gloria Victis' age being only to highlight the merit of that run off 11st 10 and winning by 10l and giving 15lbs to Marlborough - who 6 weeks later was a stylish winner of the William Hill, later won a handicap off 150, a Charlie Hall, a RP Chase aged 12 off 150 giving 18lbs and a beating to track lover Gunther McBride and was placed in a King George and Gold Cup and won a Gold Cup replacement!! Solid form!!

I agree Strontium that at the end of next yr, all being well, he'll be rated much higher. I think this yr I would go for the Newbury novice on AON day, then head for a novice race at the Festival with a view to ensuring next yr they have a horse to throw against Long Run and (rising 13!) Kauto.

I think the pick of his form is very good and the impression he has made so far is second to none. His hurdles is top draw. For me his beating of Sonofvic is pretty good, under a penalty, because I think that horse will turn out to be very good (i'd disregard his latest run, and have no problems following him over fences all things being equal in the future. The Dipper was only his 4th run (I think) under rules)). He looked much the best in the Feltham under an unnecesarilly aggressive ride (did the horse take him to the front or did Scu elect to take it up that early?) - I think Siviniaco is a very nice horse who had a perfect prep at Wincanton (simialrish tracks for me) and whilst Bobs Worth would now need a stiffer track than Kempton (he was IMO flat to the boards the whole way) he is clearly a really decent horse. I think at this stage the horse has rock solid form and looks to have bags and bags of scope. I'd not swap him for any novice at this stage. As a purist it would be great to see him bolt up at Kempton but with an eye to the future, I'd probably elect to take the softest option at this stage.

Sorry Booster, I had misunderstood your comment about 20 lbs.

I think we saw a possibly player today in Ireland too.

Totally agre with all of that Brandy. The RSA was dreadful, but he was not IMO finished with (far from it) when coming to grief. I still think Time For Rupert can rebuild his reputation, and thnk he proobably ran very well at Cheltenham given he was not right in March. I'd also forgive Wetherby and Haydock too, given those tracks would be about as far from ideal as possible for this giant of a horse!

QE could end up in Ryanair the way hes being campaigned,have taken some big odds in case.
His jumping this season has been very good,if that continues hes a player in his chosen race i feel.

There are too many questions to answer before backing Quel Esprit.  He could even go for a festival handicap, Ryanair or Gold cup. Possible he will be competitive in all, but which one.  Appreciate if he runs in Irish Hennessy and goes close then his handicap mark will be blown, but on todays jog round it can't go up much.

couldn't disagree more ^^^

very surprised you say that harry, as i know you watch a lot of video form

if you watch his 2 novice championship races at chelt and punch his jumping was very fluent and neat

especially at chelt he winged most jumps and the couple he got in close to he corrected himself quickly. the reason he pulled himself to the front so early in the race was because of his brilliant jumping

i think people are saying/guessing he is a dodgy jumper is because he has got a couple of F's next to his name.watch him again and see what you think.   an excellent 95-1 shot me thinks

The thing i would be worried about with backing him for both is that not one bookie in the country has him priced up for the Ryanair but he is available at 40s (hills and sj) for the GC and is priced up by all firms for that. Being as he is 40 on here for the GC and 40/1 at books i would imagine at this stage it is the GC he is being aimed for! Though admittedly he is only 36 for the Ryanair which baffles me as to why no books have him priced up for that race, could it just be that people are taking the small amounts getting offered by layers whom have big smiles on their faces as respect to this, i do tend to always go with the exchanges/books when trying to second guess where one will run at the festival as regards to antepost bets and it is not often wrong!

I am about to nip out and have a little tickle on Quel and Burton Port for the GC both at 40s. Wont be backing Quel for the ryanair at all and if it is that race he goes for, well ive lost a point and i can justify it, he would be good enough to sneak a place in the GC imo. But then so is most of the field and is the reason why i like to sweep up all of these big prices at this stage as you always end up with most of the field backed at well under 100% making a nice profit in the mean time, god i love cheltenham in march!

Erm QE is only 40 on here to lay with plenty wanting to back at 50 now, so how is he a 95 shot? Or are you referring to the ryanair where he is only 36 currently where no one is willing to ask for a price?

TFR fantastic value @ 20/1.

I have backed TFR at the start of the season and believe his run against the top two is not to be taken literally. He has good cheltenham form and the trainer i think is deliberately keeping this horse away from the track and alike tracks until we see him at the festival, i believe he will come on bundles for every run this season and for that reason, (and my speculation about the track) i intend to go in again at 20s. (backed at 14s at the beginning of the season) He is just the type to run well without troubling the top two and could easily run a place.

As could so many others, at biggish double fig prices, and at 1/4 the odds for a place, why not, at this early stage one can afford to back many in the race. Just have to be good at second guessing trainers etc, i use betfair/bookies/news/rp website/attheraces websites etc as a guide!

I have

Long Run 11/4 - going in big cannot have him out of the front 2
Kauto Star 11/2, 5/1, 4/1 - going in bigger cannot have him not in the first 3
Captain Chris 16/1 - price wise pick, yes i no lol dont take pish hehe, but he does get a winner or two every year don't he? Is also a saver
The rest are also savers bets
Grand Crus 8/1 nrnb
Burton Port 40/1
TFR 14/1 (soon to again at 20s)
Quel Esprit 40/1

backed so far it is a back book i am not a layer lol though by the time the day comes round i will have the top 2 winning me money and the others losing me slightly but if i have a place backed also it will become profit

seathe - he can win it.

Holes galore in the front 2 - he absolutely loves Chelters - simply ignore his RSA run as something was badly amiss from the 'Get Go' - and his new alliance with O'Regan could be a match made in heaven.
An absolute barrel of a horse - you wont see a horse with a bigger chest cavity.;he's getting better with each run this season.
He'll sit in front 2 or 3, take it up going out on the 2nd circuit and grind them downy- LR will probably either Unseat or Fall and KS probablt Pull Up.

Haha you beat me to that one strontium

I am no great fan of Long Run but i do not agree he is regressing as his jumping is spot on at his normal cruising speed but as soon as you put pace to the race it goes to pot. He is an out and out stayer with a big engine which loves to go his own pace. Much like Denman but with a lower cruising speed but will and can outstay anything over the gold cup trip and still be able to quicken up the hill. Look at his paddy power run, his jumping went to pot as soon as the pace quickened, he won the KG that year, he made it look effortlessly but he was niggled down the back straight and got in close to a couple then too, KS was having an off season then and Riverside theatre is just short of his class. Now look at that years gold cup, he could not go with the front two, (denman and Kauto) until almost 2 out where he then oustayed them up the hill. SWC obviously wise to the fact he cannot jump at pace, to which Paul Nichols and Ruby have now obviously come wise to and this is how they have beaten him twice this season already.

So it is quite ludicrous to say LR is past imvho!