Cheltenham Festival
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Is the Gold Cup between Kauto Star and Long Run
Is the Gold Cup between Kauto Star and Long Run
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Replies: 149
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Well Denman you better hope he runs to his best unlike the 2 efforts already or he WILL get beat. If he runs to 180 then I think your counting your winnings but I have my doubts that he can.
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id be happy if he ran like he did at kempton even though he jumped awful, had the race been another 3 furlongs, which is what he'll get in the gold cup hed have won comfortably
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What rating does the 3rd best horse have in the Gold Cup?
Just out of interest,to see how far off their ratings LR and KS can afford to be,for them not to win on current ratings. |
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captain chris 164? the only way he goe past if they both fall
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I've said before I fancy What A Friend. Nicholls has said going there fresh and being trained for the race. Finished a nose behind Kauto in last years GC. As I don't think Kauto has improved and Long Run slightly deteriorated, he'll do for me at 10 times the price and previosly a lot bigger.
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so is that right,they are over a stone better in the ratings than the next best?
I am not a big ratings man myself,but even i would struggle to justify to myself that one of them wont win. Still this aint an exact science,and things dont always go the way we think they will.Its just hard for me to see both of them getting beat. |
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That's the official handicappers version Bud. If he were right all the time, then nothing would bother to tuen up.
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"turn"
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what happens if juniour makes the strong pace and grand cru switches off nicely and gets a nice rhythm...now thats a race..
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shockster , what a friend wont be far off a place, but he ran the race of his life in last eyr gold cup and cudnt get within 11 lengths of the winner
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There's a lovely line in a recent article by Richard Forrsital "you don't apply conventional logic to an immortal."
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it wud be a race if grand crus improved 2 stone! as it is its a no contest!
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Tweed - Junior not in same league. Won well at festival, but that was 3rd div now Premier league. Was previously hammered by Midnight Chase also, who could only lead last year for a circuit.
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Agree Shock,thats why i aint a big ratings man.Prefer to use my own eyes and judgement.
They are a fair way ahead though. |
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tweed - if that happens, Grands crus gets run of his feet and Long Run mops up.
Incidentally sstats fans - the race being won by something within 8 lb of top RPR is another very strong stat. Some blockbuster stat is going to have to give this season. Rather like last season in fact. |
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Actually not a stat man at all but this race has served me well about repeat winners. If here and now I had to put my life on the race I would select Long Run. However the stakes aren't so high and I'll stick with WAF.
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im happy with captain chris .
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how cud u be happy wiv captain chris, he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
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how cud u be happy wiv captain chris, he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
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how cud you be happy wiv captain chris ,he was beaten out of sight at kempton and will be the same at chelt
for a start hobbs has said he wasnt right at kempton ,i.e he didnt jump or travel as he usually does in his races ,he missed work and if the king george was a week before he would not have made it, hobbs words not mine by the way. judgeing by last years arkle he looks to me as though he needs further , and has not had much racing so could have huge impovement and the trip may actually suit him . he may or may not stay we will see but at the odds i have backed him at i am happy . |
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I think the only straw you can clutch at is that Captain Chris improved dramatically at this time last year and seems much better in the spring but you need some imagination to see him beating the front 2 really.
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Shockster, just a quick reply, I do not fancy Kauto for this.
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I think Nicholls and Walsh have found the key to getting Long Run beat. A fast pace. That worked over 3 miles but I'm not so sure it's going to work in a Gold Cup. In my opinion ( and this might sound a bit daft for a 2 time GC Winner ) I'm not sure Kauto truly gets a fast run 3m 2f. Last year and the year Denman won I don't think it fully stayed. So Ruby might have to turn it into a tactical affair. But I think if they go like the clappers from the off I'm not convinced Kauto will win. Long Run if it stays on its feet beats Kauto for me at Cheltenham.
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Shockster. I totally agree with your sentiments about WAF. Nicholls knows whats required and his price compared to Kauto's for the difference of a nose is incredible.If there is any mention of soft in the going description come the day I would expect WAF to finish in front of Kauto
Kauto will need genuine good ground to be seen at his best IMO, as I think he will struggle to stay on anything softer. Long Run looks the pick but his jumping leaves a lot to desired. I can see an upset this year and I would not be surprised if it was WAF or Carruthers whose closely matched with WAF from a couple of seasons ago |
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You'd think it'd be between the two but I wouldn't rule out Quel Esprit, was looking like the winner in the RSA before falling, will likely be tested in the Irish Hennessy and if he wins that he puts himself right in the frame
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if either carruthers or waf wins a gold cup il give the game up.
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yeh,on all we know about those 2,it would have to be a poor Gold Cup for those to win it.
Hello CV my ol mate,where you been these last few months? you've been missed my friend. |
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Hey bud, I'm off traveling the world, been away for over 6 months now, thought it was they right way to spend all my winnings and quit my annoying banking job
Having a rest day or two here in Peru and doing my homework on the festival, I'm headed to all 4 days this year and get home 2 weeks before it starts Already have an ap book going, but 99% of my posting is done with the rest of the krew on our own site, AR is a mod  I'll try post my thoughts in a preview or three at some point |
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Look forward to reading that mate.
Well done on quitting yr annoying job,wish i could afford to do the same.  Good luck with the rest of your travels. |
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There is now a market on here for the Gold Cup Without Kauto Star and Long Run. This should be interesting once it settles down. Thanks Betfair
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