Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup 2012
The Gold Cup 2012
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Replies: 685
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Only Long Run and Kauto Star in it unless Grands Crus goes for the Gold Cup.
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I agree with that Booster, and I think 11/4 Long Run is pretty good value
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Strontium - Do you really think Kauto has improved with him rising 12? I would say that at best he is running to his Gold Cup mark, which to me means Long Run has run 15 and 12 pounds lower than last year. Most Gold cup winners never hit the same heights again, Denman most recently. If this is the case and it I may be totally wrong, then What A Friend is a player. Only Paul Nicholls really knows. Hats off to Nicholls for keeping Kauto at the top so long. There's an argument that at Kauto's best he wasn't as good as Long Run or Denman, however for logevity and consistency he is tops.
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Shockster - I don't think Kauto has improved from his peaks in 2007 or 2009, no. I do think he's improved from the 2010-11 season, either because of his new front runnig tactics, or because he wasn't right last season.
I think WAF is a mid-160s horse and Kauto has put in 2 runs this season around 178+. I agree many Gold Cup winners don't run to the same mark afterwards and that is often overlooked, so it is hard to put an accurate number on Long Run but I think he was close (maybe -7 lb) to his Jan 2011 KG this week. I disagree that either Denmam or LR were better than Kauto at their peak, though both could be better over the Gold Cup C&D. Kauto's second Gold Cup and the 2009 King George were awesome performances. [Over their careers, for all sorts of reasons I won't go into here, Kauto has been a far superior horse to either of them.] |
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Strontium - I am def not trying to put Kauto down and I was referring to Gold Cup performances when using Denman and LR as yardsticks. However, this years King George in terms of marks is almost impossible to rate with Captain Chris and Sommersby finishing 3rd and 4th having never raced over 3 miles before. Kauto could have run to 178 or 168 almost impossible to say IMO. If 168 WAF not far off!
Look, I don't think WAF is in the same league overall, however as a big price alternative I think you could do worse. |
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Yes, that's fair enough and the BHA handicapper seems to agree with you as I think he's left Kauto on 174 (ifn they did the usual Wednesday update this week). However, I think one can rate the Haydock Betfair form pretty solidly through Weird Al and Time for Rupert on which I'd put Kauto at 178 (which looks consistent to me with how Diamond Harry and Long Run ran).
I may have a bit of a chip on my shoulder about WAF having unsuccessfully backed him several times in the past  |
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I'm just looking for reasons to take on the top 2 in the market. I can see an angle with WAF if my reasoning is correct(accepted a leap of faith is needed). I am struggling to come up with anything else really. Could be a small field this year.
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Well last years novices are really struggling,beaten by a Welsh National horse!!
Only Jessies Dream and Quel Esprit left to see.Jessies is so closely tied in that unless hes improved a lot,just cannot see him in the Gold Cup picture.QE is more of a possibility,but certainly aint looking good for a competitive Gold Cup at the moment. |
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Quel Esprit hasn't yet proved he can (a) jump and (b) stay. He hasn't managed to finish a graded chase yet and his jumping is likley to be pressurised in a Gold Cup. I agree with you about Jessies - its hard to see why he'd suddenly be so much better than the other rabble (though he could be the best of them), and he's getting a poor prep imo.
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Surely Grands Crus will not go for the Gold Cup as he is with the stable that sent out Gloria Victis as a novice and that ended terribly.
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Stront,QE jumped well lto,and its possible he may well have improved in that respect.
He needed to i agree,and will be interesting to see next time. |
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That was the classic confidence builder though wasn't it? I'd like to see him do it in a decent race before I give him any serious thought.
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If you guys ever get the chance, watch a re-run of last seasons RSA chase. I've watched it on numerous occasions and every time I still can't believe Jessies Dream doesn't win.
He was cruising coming to the bottom of the hill, then it all goes t1ts up, between the last two fences jockey and horse were all over the place then once galvanised he sprinted in the last 100yards, but it was too late. The form of the race has taken plenty of knocks, but I have no doubt JD is far superior to anything in that race, he should have been kicked on at the bottom of the hill and won comfortably, he's all stamina to me. I doubt Murphy will make the same mistake. Elliot has always stated how highly he rates JD, all last season, and every stable tour this season he says so. He's a trainer who doesn't mince his words, The Gold Cup is the target followed by Punchestowns. A while back I took some of the 40/1 bladdies had on offer, and once they went NRNB this dropped to 25/1 and I see that has disapeared today. Given that credible opposition seems to be lacking after today, I think he's a cracking ew price, 33's still available. He obviously needs to improve but he is a second season chaser so its not unfeasable. |
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Good post GI - I'm a fan too but I'm worried about his preparation. Any news on when we can expect to see him?
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/12/19/manual_114753.html&BID=465
last thing I have come across.. |
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I think Jessie's Dream is up to Grade 1 standard but a doubtful stayer. As you say, he was cruising at the bottom of the hill last year but found very little ( as he'd done at Leopardstown the time before) and form doesn't stack up against Kauto star and Long Run. I think he's better over shorter and, if I owned him, I'd take The Racing Post Chase off that mark as the easier track and going right handed should suit him well then drop back in trip for The Ryanair where he'd have a better chance.
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Has anybody got an update on the fitness of Burton Port? Forgotten horse and IF he turns up could be a player.
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QE comes with huge risks, reflected in his price, but he is one of those who may just be better than he has showed so far.....yes he has fallen/unseated in top novice races but each time he was still going better than any other horse in that race so this shows us he has an engine to go the pace. His last race was a worry though, as I thought he looked to have to be srubbed along to put the race to bed. Having said that it could have been he may have been a little rusty/careful as the plan was to get him round. But at the price on here I think its too big to ignore. He certainly has better potential than others have shown from last years novices.
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I said a while ago on here that I would seriously consider the 3m Billy Hills chase on day 1 for Quel Esprit. A handicap mark of 145 would be too tempting to turn the race down (Bensalem won it last year off 143).
The current price of 85 on here says to me that there is no way Quel Esprit will line up in the Gold Cup, considering his price has doubled in the last few weeks. |
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Shockster, last info I heard was Hendo's stable tour on the 21st of November, if any good to you.
A very talented chaser with an outstanding record of achievement. He arrived back with us a few days ago having convalesced at Trevor's Gleadhill Stud following the tendon injury he sustained when running Diamond Harry so close in the Hennessy. He's only seven and theres no reason why he shouldn't return as good as ever. He isn't the biggest but jumping has always been his forte and with stamina in abundance I see no reason why he shouldn't reach the top. |
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Cheers GI, had read this and was wondering if anything else had come out of the stable regarding him.
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Yes, it would be nice to know if/when/where he's actually going to race next. I suppose if fit the Argento (what's it called now?) or the Denman are the obvious races, though I doubt he'd take on Long Run in the latter.
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Quel Esprit races in the first at Thurles tomorrow. Looks like he only has to stand up to win, however it will tell us very little as it is over 2m2f. Jumping practice I assume.
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"Looks like he only has to stand up to win"
Which makes him about a 2/1 shot  |
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He stood up Stront, but still loads to prove. Still in there though if he wins Irish Hennessy? Probably 3rd fav for Gold cup. Pity I missed the price.
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Single figures anyway. There'll be good money for Grands Crus if he runs and for Synchronised (JP & AP) so I don't know about 3rd fav. I reckon the Irish Hennessey will show if he's got any chance and if he goes for the Gold Cup or something shorter.
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Quel Esprit had suffered jumping problems last season but put in another assured performance and is set for a step up in class now.
"He jumped well enough and we'll up him in class now," said Mullins afterwards. "He might come back here for the Kinloch Brae (January 19th) or maybe I should kick him up a gear and go for the Hennessy." |
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w.mullins asaid in todays r. post quel before todays race "hes in good form and the conditions of the race are favourable .heavy ground suits him so we are looking forward to a big run. will he get his favoured ground at the festival?
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Entries for the following 3 races at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival close in Ireland by 12 noon on MONDAY 9th JANUARY:-
The sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion S'chase The Ryanair S'chase The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup |
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We know QE will stay as he was still full of running in the RSA and the 3m at Punchs before coming to grief at the last/2nd last fence. His run at the RSA shows the ground should not be a problem....the shorter races this season have been nothing more than confidence boosters.
The step up in class will show his hand then the price will absolutely collapse on here. Get in while you can. He is the unexposed one that could just be the pick of last years novices. I don't think there is much to oppose the front two in the Gold Cup market at the moment......he just might be the one....! Surely if he wins again he will be 20s or 16s for this and Mullins has no other real candidates. Also another point....Paul Townend was on board....why?? Ruby will always pick Kauto (and why wouldn't he) so its not just a confidence booster it is getting the jockey horse partnership going. It all points to a decision already made for me. Just my thoughts. |
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Just got a few words to say on this, ahead of tomorrows trials day
TIME FOR RUPERT TO GET HIS GOLD CUP CAMPAIGN BACK ON TRACK AT HIS FAVORED CHELTENHAM RACECOURSE TOMORROW just my opinion GL  |
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In Wednesday's RacingPost. Henderson says "Burton Port saw a fence for the first time this season and jumped spectacular. The Gold Cup is an option and he will have an entry in the Grand National".
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Thats good,nice to see horses coming back,especially good ones.
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Reckon todays race has got rid of a few potential runners.
Cant see Diamond Harry,Captain Chris or Time for Rupert turning up now,no point imo. |
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So after todays Argento, where do we stand? Midnight Chase as admirable as he is, is not good enough. The first 4 in last years Gold cup were 8L or more in front of him. Therefore rule out all of todays runners. That leaves Kauto, Long Run and What A Friend who finished in front of MC last year. Throw in Weird Al, Psynchronised and Quel Esprit and that's it for contenders unless Grands Crus runs and that has to be a doubt.
Can anybody come up with any others? |
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Not really,although have not completely given up on Bostons Angel or Jessies Dream.
Cant believe that was BA's true running last time,and we have yet to see JD. Its is clutching at straws though,and really i cannot see anything but a LR or KS victory. |
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Long run wins bar falling.
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Will be interesting to see what race Albertas Run goes for... could be a big challenger if going for this?
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Midnight Chase at 11-1 without the big two could be the angle here, it's 1/4 odds ew so 5th or better and bingo. Wouldn't want to lay it.
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makes sense,no Denman this year,and he finished 5th last year.
Albertas wont run imo,Ryannair is his race as he has shown last 2 years,he got well beat the only time he tried the GC. |