Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup 2012
The Gold Cup 2012
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Replies: 685
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 yeh,will be something if it happens. |
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with you on the not as cut and dried budd ,if something looks too good to be true ,it usually is !think kauto is going to have some opposition up front ,they wont allow him a soft lead surely, a few who could make the pace .
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foyles= for u 2 say kauto and long run have had hard races is stupid, it will be 3 months between race come the festival, and if u think them running prior to the festival is going to hinder there chances yourt very much mistaking, its fair enough looking away from the top two to trying to find a place horse at a decent price, but the fact of the matter is there is nothing in the race that is capable of running up to 175+ other than kauto and long run! although i think both will run up to a higher mark than that, i read something briefly that francombe written about Synrchronised/ QDLR been good each way bets, maybe they will be but i wudnt listen to that blitherring idiot at the best of times, for me the race is obv between the top 2, but long run would have to run a stinker for kauto to win, after that i aint really that interested in finding the place horses, if i had to id maybe have a little bit on What a friend
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spot on denman between the top 2 with long run having to run a stinker for kauto to win .
hence as i said barring accidents its a one horse race. |
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It's ludicrous to say Kauto doesn't have a chance of winning this race. We are talking about the best steepelchaser since Arkle, a horse who has won 16 Grade 1s and who has put up 180+ RPRs 15 times. There have been two senior Grade 1 3m chases in Britain this season - Kauto has won them both. On both occassions he beat last seasons Gold Cup winner Long Run. All being well, Kauto will be ridden by a jockey who is a tactical master. His form over C&D is 121F3 - when he has completed, only 3 horses have ever beaten him in the Gold Cup and two of those aren't around this time.
I agree there are good reasons to expect Long Run to beat Kauto and LR should be favourite imo. But to say it's a one horse race barring accidents is frankly silly. |
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*only 2 horses have beaten him in the GC and one isn't around! (sorry!)
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you were right first time
3 horses have beaten him - Denman, Imperial Commander and Long Run and the first two won't run A reproduction of the 2011 GC form will see LR and KS finish a long way clear. If anyone doubts the merit of that form you should take a look at What A Friend who ran his heart out and finished fourth beaten a long way and he provides the justification for the rating in the 180s. Long Run will win if he reproduces that form - but that is in doubt it has to be said. |
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Imperial Commander won the year he fell. Only Denman and Long Run have finished in front of him when he's stood up. Though I think it's highly unlikley he'd have beaten IC had he not fallen that day.
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I count that as a defeat, he was never really going that day and fell coz he was under pressure
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Very safe to say he wouldn't have beaten IC that day, doubt he would have beaten Denman either.
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Fair enough, the fences are there to be jumped. He hit the 8th (iirc) very hard and was on the back foot from there.
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stront - kauto cud quite possibly win, but only if long run doesnt run his race, the king george, long run shud of won , bad jump at the last and kauto was tiring, another 10 yrds long run win, and he gets a bit more than 10 yrs to make the ground up in the gold cup, this years race is alot weaker than last yrs as imo there's only 2 that can win it, if they stay on there feet, last yrs had the mighty denman, immperial, even tho was pulled up, but prior to race was alot tigher race than this yr, ill be lumping on long run this year thats for sure!
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Denman, I disagree with a lot of that. I think you're right the big two are a long way clear of the rest. However,
Kauto looks a better horse than last season for whatever reason. Long Run looks, perhaps, a little worse. Long Run got beaten in the King George because Kauto jumped better than him. Which he generally does, did at Haydock, and could well do again. It's National Hunt racing - it's about jumping! In the KG, Long Run closed by about 1 1/4 lengths from the last to the line (about 1/2 a furlong). Kauto won by 1 1/4 l and was not ridden out. There is no way LR would have won in another 10 yards. I'm not convinced he'd have won in another half furlong (as he'd have at Cheltenham) with Ruby able to ride him if necessary. |
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Stront some very good and valid points above, however, the Gold Cup is over an extra 2 1/2f not just 1/2f like you said.
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all this logical discussion is very worthwhile and it appears that the two favourites have the race at their mercy
I say "appears" because there is something niggling away telling me that neither is going to win. I shake the feeling off and tell myself "don't be silly they both have plenty in hand, there is nothing of their class in the race, of course one of them wins...." Then I forget about it for a while and when I return to it, there is that same niggling feeling, in the same place and telling me the same thing - they are both vulnerable. But at the same time I can't come up with an alternative selection that makes any sense  |
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I know. what I meant was, it's half a furlong from the last fence to the line at Kempton, a full furlong at Cheltenham. The extra trip will prbably play to Long Run's strngth over Kauto's, but LR has to be close enough to him to be able to catch him.
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stront - are u kidding kauto was beat giving another 100yrds, he was beaten 1 1/4, but he jumped awful, over the gold cup trip long run has kauto measure, even when beaten kauto by miles in lasat yrs gold cup he still didnt jump well, hes got 11l to make up at chelt from last yr
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and stront long run was doing his best work at end, anyways i dont think i need to explain my self any more, long run is a worthy favourite, kauto can only beat long run hen he jumps bad, but even if he did jump bad i think he'll win, for the simple reason last yrs gold cup out of the first4 horses home long run jmped the worst by a mile, and still won easy.
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Denman - watch the King George again. As I said, LR closed 1 1/4 l in about 100 yards aftet the last fence and lost by 1 1/4 l. Kauto was not ridden out and Ruby hit him twice. I think it would have been very close had there been another 100 yards to go with Ruby able to ride his horse and use his whip.
As for the Gold Cup, I've said many times Long Run is a worthy favourite and there are good reasons to think he'll win. I just don't think it's a one horse race and it's silly for people to say Kauto has no chance. |
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ive never sed kauto has no chance, what ive sed is kauto's chance of winning rely on long run jumping bad, and i also think that even that wont be enough, but hes the next best in the race to him.
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I know you haven't but one or two people have.
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Think everybody is concentrating too much on the 2 favourites! Stats really really awful for them in this race. Reasons well documented previously.
Burton Port should have run yesterday so presumably fit and well now. Only been beaten twice over fences and finished in front of Long Run in RSA. Massive price 40/1. What A Friend may meet Long Run in Denman next Saturday and within touching distance in Gold Cup last year also 40/1. He Finished 8L in front of Midnight Chase yet is double the price. Outstanding value the pair. Whether Quel Esprit has a chance will be answered next week and he's 33/1. |
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Shock - I know about the 12 yo stat. But how many of the 12 yos who've run in the Gold Cup were rated 180+? How many were top rated/near top rated? How many had won 2 Grade 1s (over 3m) that season? How many had won 2 Gold Cups before? How many had the sheer residual class of Kauto Star?
It's a big stat to overcome for sure, but he's not a typical 12 yo. However, the "trends" horses for the 2012 Gold Cup appear to be Bostons Angel, Burton Port and Jessies Dream. |
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as I said there is something telling me that the front two get beat - it's that unnerving alarm bell that goes off when something is not right and it has often proven to be correct in the past. Not had a bet yet as I am waiting to see if it changes
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I agree Kauto is an extraordinary horse an I don't mind if my bets go down if he wins. However he is 12, no other horse has ever regained a Gold Cup once and he's now trying to do it twice. I think it's too much to ask. I think it's obvious that Long Run is not as good as last year, may still be good enough to win it though, but again only Best mate in the last 40 yrs has retained the Gold Cup. Therefore there are enough negatives to try and find value IMO.
Regarding Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream, you know I will not entertain last years novices. Form well proven to be very very ordinary/sub standard. |
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shockster, im with you on what a friend think hes over priced, but only for him to get a place, 11 lengths is hardly touching distance though, be a miracle if he cud even repeat that effort again!
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Denman85 - he's been laid out for the race and as i have said, I believe Long Run is not in as good form as last year. Kauto was a nose in front. Touching distance in my book.
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l think Long Run is the most likely winner, however after watching last years race again l have been very impressed with the way China Rock travelled through the race. He was still on the bridle along with Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Long Run when making a mistake at the 4th last which caused him to suffer an injury and be pulled up (you can tell he gets injured there as he drops 5l in 20yards and was travelling too well for it to be anything else, Barry isn't hard on him after either). lt was too far out to say if he would of taken a hand in the finish but the way he was travelling suggested he wouldn't of been too far away. Obviously he injury was pretty bad and we won't know how much ability he's retained until we see him in the Hennessey, though l don't expect him to win but would like to see him run well for a long way. Whatever he does there l feel he can improve upon as being by Presenting he's a better horse on better ground. l backed him a few weeks ago at 100/1 as l think if he runs the same race as he did last year he's got a chance of placing at least (100s probably right for win part but 25s too big for place part on last seasons run).
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i actually think long run has improved since last year hes still rated 182, his form is rock solid wiv kauto and chelt will bring out the best of him and hes a 7yo plenty of miles left on the clock! i really think people are under estimg ating how good this horse is, think hes got al least another 2 gold cup wins in him, after all the gold cup is changing all the time, all this **** about hirstory of race not been won repeated is nonsense, over the last 10 yrs longest price winner is 7/1, the days of 16/1, 25/1 winners are long gone!!! now with the track as it is, horses lightly campaigned, wrapped up, the FACT of matter is only the best few horses win the race!
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bland 25/1 horses dont win the gold cup anymore!
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I think its worth bearing in mind, that NJH felt he had Long Run in his best ever shape prior to the KG. If he jumps like that again, he wont win the GC. Everything rests on his jumping for me. If he jumps well, he wins. If he's foot perfect, he hoses up. But they are both huge if's.
He's worthy fav, but I wont be backing him I dont think. And if we have 3 of the 4 up in the 50/1 acca, I'll be laying him! |
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A horses don't reclaim there crown in it either...........oh yes didn't Kauto do that? l will never be put off backing a horse by it's price being too big.
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Long Run as a 7 yr old does have a better chance than most of blowing the repeat stat, but I can't see how he's improved. He won the King George last year and was beaten this and no matter what anybody says I am not willing to believe Kauto Star has improved at 12, hence LR IMO has gone backwards. On KG running i believe they are at mid 170's also.
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Like l said Denman, l think Long Run is the most likely winner. My point was based on the fact l thought China Rock was overpriced.
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Cant catch me - i think if he jumps like hge did in the king george he wins! he jumped just as bad in last years gold cup, the gold cup distance is key to this horse, he does only have to jump average to win and that is fact , as he proved last year
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I laid LR in the Paddy Power last season, in the RSA at the previous Festival and at Haydock this season. I laid Kauto in the GC along with Denman (on the age stat)
so I imagine I will continue and lay them both eespecially if I can lay the equivalent of say 7/4 and 5/2 |
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Imperial Commander may have been 13/2 on the day but he was briefly 20/1 after the KG (his last run before his CGC win) and 16/1 for a while after that. Can't remember exactly what price he was at this stage but was double figures. If something storms home in the Irish Hennessy then we may yet have a worthy 3rd favourite. I say it again, 175 wins it this year. LR is capable of it for sure but is something else?
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Thieves - Was Imperial Pricewise that year? I know he put him up for the Ryanair the year before.
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Not entirely sure, think he might have been. Would make sense if he was.
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Pricewise tipped him the year he won the GC
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