Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup 2012
The Gold Cup 2012
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hello guys, i was thinking on backing What a Friend EW, can anyone tell me if Nicholls has mentioned this horse lately about whether or not the horse is being aimed for the gold cup ? thanks
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I believe he is. In the back of my mind I think his next race is supposed to be the Denman Chase (Aon) at Newbury.
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Stront, you may be right, but I am sure the plan is to go straight to The Gold Cup fresh and then on to Punchestown.
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Just come across this from Saturday (Guardian website) "if the ban remains, he [Walsh] will miss Betfair day at Newbury in a fortnight's time, when he would probably have ridden What A Friend in the Denman Chase among other rides."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/jan/28/big-bucks-ruby-walsh-cheltenham-festival |
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Cheers Strontium, goes against what PFN said about going to the GC fresh though. Anyway he should know what's right and still think he's got a great chance franked by Midnight Chase on Saturday.
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thanks guys, i've taken the 16/1 with 365 EW without Kauto and Long Run, i backed him in last years race and he got beat in a photo for 3rd after travelling very strongly to the 2nd last.
he's definitely a spring horse and races like the gold cup, the aintree race he won last year and punchestown will probably be the aim. |
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I've also backed him in the w/o LR & KS market and to small stakes in the win market as well given the uncertainties about most of the contenders and his run last year. Hopefully he will put in another decent run this time, though I have a slight worry he was flattered because of his (then) first time blinkers.
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Shock - toying this over, is it possible Nicholls wants to make sure Long Run doesn't have a soft race?
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It's a fair point Stront, but can't see him compromising Sir Alex to stretch Long Run. Obviously though he needs a horse with a lot of ability to do that. I'd say he would probably put a horse in that won't go to Cheltenham. He may test the water with The Minack though.
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Maybe, though the Minack is his only entry in the Irish Hennessey IIRC. If he feels WAF needs a prep race (and he's unraced since October 29th) it could kill 2 birds with one stone. It was also WAF's prep race last season so didn't do him too much harm. As always, we'll see
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Yes, hadn't checked that he had that prep. So yes it does make sense. Might get a bigger price if he is well beat.
 It would be just like Pipe to contradict and put Grands Crus in to muddy the water. |
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Burton Port is entered in the 3.40 Sandown on Saturday. Looks like he might make it to the Gold Cup.
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Synchronised update - Jonjo O'Neill has warned that Synchronised is not a certain starter in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Sunday week.
The nine-year-old catapulted himself into the top league when landing the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, and O'Neill immediately pointed to a return trip to Ireland on February 12 for last season's Welsh National winner. But the trainer told the Daily Mail: "He is taking his time to recover. He always does. As we speak, I would not say he would not be going. He proved (in the Lexus) that he is not just a mudlark but he did put a lot into it and you can tell that now." O' Neill went on: "There is nothing wrong. I am happy with him but not delighted and he has to really excite me in the next week or so. "I think the Hennessy is the ideal race for him rather than the Gold Cup but if he is not right there is no point going. "If he was right for the Gold Cup, he might as well take his chance because there would not be a lot left for him this season." |
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If you are Synchronised supporter, those quotes from Jonjo wouldn't increase your confidence!
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I think the main concern about Synchronised will be the fencing at a faster beat than he's encountered.
He's not exactly fluent, and although the ground was officially good at Leopardstown when he won at Xmas, the times for all seven races on the card were respectively 31/13/34/28/37/17 & 26 seconds outside the standard! That would suggest that the 'good' in the going description is nonsense, and a faster surface at Cheltenham would have to be a worry too. |
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Although you obviously don't want downbeat updates about Cheltenham horses in February, I'd be quite happy if Synchro missed Leopardstown and went straight there.
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josh apiafi @joshapiafi Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
No definitive Y/N fr Rodger on Grand Crus, but if I was a betting man(and I've been known to have a dabble) I'd say Gold Cup is a solid fav! |
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From P.Nicholls Column - What a Friend was a sick horse after Wetherby but he is in really good form at the moment and is my number one hope in the Betfair Denman Chase. He carried a 10lb penalty when a head second to Noland in the race last season, but doesn't this time around. Hopefully, this will be a good stepping stone to the Gold Cup, in which he finished a fine fourth last season.
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I have just put enough on Long Run to cover my losses on Weapons Amnesty and assumed losses on Time for Rupert. The more I look at the race I can't find anything to beat him unless Grands Crus turns up and is exceptionally good. Anything that I could make a case for, he has already comfortably disposed of. The only exception is Kauto and I cannot see how he can win.
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well if long run dont jump well,and kauto repeats his last 2 runs,then kauto certainly can win.
both are possible imo. |
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just watched last years gold cup 10 mins ago and long run
made 3or4 mistakes and still won well. kauto cant win this unless long run falls. this is a one horse race . the improving 7.y.o. long run is nailed on imo. |
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one horse race
I agree Long Run is the nmost likely winner,but to say its a one horse race is rather silly imo. |
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name your alternative bud.
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Add to that, on what we've seen this season, Long Run is not still improving! Should be able to reverse form with the OAP over this C and D but not guaranteed to do so.
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Kauto Star
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you obviously dont know the way henderson trains i.e they always hit their peak on the big day.
everyone from the stable will tell you that this horse has indeed improved and will be an even bigger force in this years gold cup. |
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kauto lol.
how can you fancy a horse on the basis that another horse doesnt jump well. |
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been deliberating long and hard at the gold cup and it looks on paper to be a 2 horse race ,but things are never that cut and dried ,sure kautos form looks good and he and long run head the betting and kauto has beaten the fav on both occasions they have met this season , at haydock kauto led and jumped well while long run who may have needed the race more hit a few and was a lot less than fluent and was beaten approx 6 lengths on slowish ground, and at kempton kauto made most of the running and jumped well again but long run was cutting him down at the finish and it was a lot closer than at haydock any of these 2 would be an apt and worthy winner . but my first instinct is to try and find something at a value price that could out run its odds ,and at big prices having 2-3 each way may be the way to go.
grans crus is an exiting novice who was a top hurdler and he has impressed in his races this season but i have a feeling that this will be too much too soon if connections decide to let him take his chance ,and at the odds i would be looking elsewhere . synchrinised has been on an upward curve for the last 2 or 3 seasons and put up a decent performance in ireland last time beating rubi light and quito de rouque amomng others and he could put up a big showing if he can improve another few pounds and he is proven stayer and he has drifted to a backable price on here and i think he has more to offer and not just a long distance plodder that many thought he was ( me included) he is a player if he makes the gig and shouldnt be underestimated imo. quito de la rouqe could also have a lot more to offer than he has shown so far this season, a usefull performer last season he is a sound stayer and good jumper and although he has a good few lengths to make up on synchronised on lexus running he looks as though he has been brought along steadily and he is tempting at his price 25s in the shops . midnight chase loves the course and should run his race and he will possibly force the pace he has e.way chances but he showed his hand somewhat last year and i think there is better value elsewhere. the other one who interests me is jessies dream who has not run this season but is due to run at leopardstown next week he is around 50s on for the gold cup on here and could be a lot shorter after the hennesey . a usefull novice last year he ran 2nd to bostons angel in the rsa after looking all over the winner 2 out he travells well and jumps well and has a progressive profile ,did he stay in the rsa or was he just in front too soon after the fall of quel esprit about 3 out ? at the prices he looks worth a couple of tenners win and place on here imo . good luck ! selections . jessies dream 2pts each way .around 50s on here synchronised 2pts each way around 16s on here quito de la roq 1pt each way 25s in shops same price on here |
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Expect Boston's Angel to show up and run a good race, but obviously has to improve miles to trouble the top two
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did not say i fancied kauto,i said it aint a 1 horse race- which it aint.
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i agree foyles there are 4or 5 about that might run big races.
but the big races last year and this show that long run denman and kauto are streets ahead of the rest and you would only be playing for place money.denman of course has gone so that leaves the other 2. here is my take on it . in the haydock race fitness won the day as im sure you will agree. at kempton kauto dictated the race to such an extent that it was run 20 seconds slower than the earlier novice chase. which was to the detriment of the strong stayer long run. when you think that last years gold cup was the fastest time in the history of the race all we need this year is a strongish pace and long run will come home alone. thats the way i see it anyway. |
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what do you fancy bud and for what reason.
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I think Long Run will win,just think he will outstay Kauto,providing he jumps ok.
I have Kauto at 15 as i thought it was agood price after the Betfair Chase and could put me in a position to save on Long Run,and touchwood that could well happen come the day. If anything happens to the front 2 Quel Esprit would be my next choice.Hes backed at big prices,just in case,as are the other RSA horses from last season. Realistically though, apart from the front 2, they are all playing for places imo. |
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Long Run probably isn't as good as people think though, he is rated through Denman and Denman was probably not as good last season as the previous 3 seasons. His form as a whole was way below previous. Kauto has regressed a little but even now is still a solid 175 horse same as LR. 175 wins most Gold Cups but there is a good chance there is something else capable of running to that too. People are getting way too excited by the King George this year, Captain Chris either didn't stay and/or wasn't right and Somersby wouldn't stay 3m in his box. If the RPRs for that race are right then Captain Chris ran almost to his Arkle form! No way am I having that, he was well below that. Look at it with the top 2 as 175 horses rather than 180+ and the picture is less clear.
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thieves i think long run will be better than people think .
when he was sent from france henderson was told this horse is better than kauto star at the same age and everything he has done so far suggests this to be so to win the king george and gold cup at 6 in the same season is incredible. as i said when henderson knows what he has got it gets wrapped in cotton wool to the big day just wait and see. |
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bud we are not that far apart except i dont think kauto can beat long run at chelts not after last year .
which is why i can only see one winner barring accidents of course. |
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my take on it is that the top 2 in the betting have had hard races this season ,nicholls said before the betfair that he had kauto 100% and he did have a hard race when beating long run .
and the king george was also a target high profile race for both and both put in maximum effort and were trianed to the minuet imo.the others have had much easier preps wheras a few of the others had a much easier time of it i cant have it that either kauto or long run had an easy time of it and the betfair and king george were just prep races and they were given a stroll round , and this may take its toll . they may be good enough or the opposition not good enough to test them at chelt but a few have had an easier time and will be 100% and fresher come the festival . |
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well i do think Kauto is better than last season,his performances suggest that anyway.
Where we differ mate,is that i dont think its as cut and dried as you do. For me it all hinges on the pace that Ruby dictates on the 2nd circuit and whether Long Run jumps well enough to keep within striking distance at the end. Thats not predictable imo and the reason why i think its not a 1 horse race. |
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French breds mature so much earlier that it doesn't seem that remarkable anymore tbh. Being better at a younger age doesn't mean that much either. Doesn't mean he will improve as much.
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Budd, I have KS as better than last season too but he has still regressed from 2 seasons ago. Anyway, I'm not sure I could stand the hysteria if he won the CGC again!
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