Cheltenham Festival
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The Gold Cup 2012
The Gold Cup 2012
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Replies: 685
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Haha no probs, I misread it. Agree entirely though, Somersby is a thoroughly frustrating horse for one that clearly has so much talent. Unfortunately I don't think the horse really has a trip.
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Denmanism...
I stand by what I said last year...I was astonished that Long Run won the Gold Cup, and I was amazed he went off at the price he did given he'd attempted and failed at Cheltenham twice before in his career; I didn't think his jumping was up to it! By standing by that comment, I can only believe that last year's race took very little winning...in my own opinion a horse should have to jump better than Long Run did last year to win a Gold Cup! You say yourself he 'rode his luck' and 'may need similar luck in the renewal'...you're taking 5's and 4's about that, in what looks at this stage to be a stronger race than last years!? No thanks, i'll stick to being a muppet. Good luck...by your own admission you'll need it!! |
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I'd say today's Betfair Chase put TFR and Diamond Harry in a farily accurate light. Ideal conditions for DH today (flat track, first time out, stong pace, autumn) - and Long Run, who looked some way off his best, pulped him. If Time for Rupert is the best novice of last season as many people seem to think then last season's novices aren't top drawer (which was also the impression given by the blanket finish in the RSA).
Perversely, given Long Run just got beaten 8 l, now could be the time to back him for the Gold Cup. |
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Strontium, I think today race had everything in Kauto's favour and he was great again. Think you're probably right though wouldn't put anyone off backing Long Run for a repeat
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Yes. It was wonderful to see Kauto win like that today. He travelled like a dream for most of the race and jumped beautifully.
But Long Run made 3 serious jumping mistakes and still only lost 8 l. I think LR will improve a stone for today, and the extra 2 1/2 furlongs at a stiffer track will suit him in the Gold Cup as he has so much stamina. Kauto looked tired today after the last. My main point was that I can't see any of DH, TFR or WA beating LR this season as they probably all had conditions more in their favour today than they will in future. What today did demonstrate is that LR might be vulnerable if you put his jumping under pressure. Maybe Nicholls should use Masterminded as a pacemaker for Kauto in the King Geogre/Gold Cup  |
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what today showed along with kautos magnificence was the fact that last year long run didn't beat a couple of has beens as has been suggested......he didn't win first time up last year and i wouldn't be downbeat as far as long run is concerned.
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My take on the race. Long Run ran well for a first time out appearance. Kauto ran a superb race. He was trained to the minute for the Betfair and as was said before it was his Gold Cup if you like. I will have to admit I thought he would run well and probs place but I was surprised he pulled that out! He's ran his best race for quite some time today.
I couldn't have the rest of them on my mind for the Gold Cup & I can't really see Kauto improving as the season goes on. Long Run will come on a bunch and will probably win in March. |
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my take on it is that kauto srat is a big player in both kg and gc
legend best there has been for 40 yrs |
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Kauto won going away...
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He did. I'd rate him running to 176-178 today, which does make him a player for the KG and GC if he can reproduce it.
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Still think last seasons RSA horses will be players in the Gold Cup.I cannot believe that TFR is showing his true running,looks to me like something amiss with him.
I liked Bostons Angel the other day and feel he would have won that if he had not made that mistake,and also Quel Esprit ran well over a shorter than ideal distance.Quito de la Roque will relish the Gold Cup trip and he would be on my list also. Think by March these horses will have proved the biggest threat to Long Run,who i feel is still the one to beat.He needed that Saturday,although he dont want to be jumping like that come March. |
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anyone fancy weird al , thought he run really well the other day , that hill would have helped him !!!
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Denman, 25/1, e/w, is tempting me
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Agree FFT, I think it's a cracking bet. Hard to see him out of the first three unless he's seriously regressed.
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Most pundits seem to think that Long Run will improve past Kauto - I'm not so sure.
I thought that Henderson's face after the Betfair when he went to congratulate Nicholls said an awful lot: he looked utterly crestfallen to me, and I don't buy this idea that this was merely a battle and not the war. This was a £100,000+ race. Almost all of Henderson's horses are ready to win first time out. If Henderson has any pretentions towards winning the trainers' title, this was one he would surely have wanted dearly (to put it in perspective, today he won 7 races and still won less than £30k)? Of the two, I would say that Long Run had the harder race (much more so than in the Paddy Power last year) and I would not be surprised if he flops in the King George. Kauto has twice experienced hard fought Betfair chases (Imperial Commander and Exotic Dancer) followed 5 weeks later by wins in the Gold Cup, the last one in 2009 when he won by a distance. Each of IC and Ex D were well beaten when they ran again in the King George against KS (and ditto if you add in the year he fell in the Betfair against taminrbleu and Snoopy Loopy - both of these were thrashed in the subsequent KG). The other point to note is that Kauto jumped the last fence only 2 lengths clear of Long Run but by the line had extended the distance to 8 lengths - he wasn't stopping. Food for thought? |
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lacson, very interesting post.
I am inclined to think that Henderson and team Waley-Cohen were being truthful in their assessment that LR was not trained to his peak, and I am sure he could have been that bit fitter and/or race sharp. What does worry me a little, as you said, is that Long Run had a brutally hard race to end up getting beaten on his first race since the Gold Cup. I think that will take a lot out of him and whether he can be at his best in 5 weeks is a debatable one. The extension of Kauto's superiority from the last to the winning line seems to confirm that Long Run had given his all, and in my book, it takes more out of a horse that isn't quite 100% fit when that happens. |
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He made a couple of juming errors as well,one of which virtually stopped him in his tracks when mounting his challenge.
Personally i thought he werent 100% fit,and he made mistakes. If the same Long Run is here for the rest of season as last,then hes the one to beat imo. But he cannot make mistakes like he did on Saturday. |
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Budd he makes mistakes in every race so far over here, that is why will always be against him.
He must have some engine though as they dont normally stop him,think matter of time before he hits deck with Sam on? |
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My guess is that Long Run is a bit stuffy and needed this first outing. He did well to finish as close given his poor round of jumping but remember he failed to win the Paddy Power last season when a blot on the handicap and didn't jump particularly well that day either. We all know what happened thereafter.
Would obviously prefer to see a professional jockey on board but it isn't going to happen. LR's still the most likely GC winner for me. |
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if it jumps it will beat kauto NTO, horses dont win making 4/5 mistakes against gd animals
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some mistakes you can get away with and he did on saturday until that one which virtually stopped him,thats something that no horse can afford at that level.
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I haven't included Long Run in my TTF as I was hoping that some of the younger horses were going to be up to the challenge, and I had a doubt over whether he'd progress (French bred, and I've read that his family don't do much after the age of 7).
However like Tom, I also believe that Long Run is being trained for the KG & GC, they've also said he may run in a couple more races this year. So I buy that he wasn't 100% first time up. I don't think they were expecting the return of the King, so I think they probably thought he could beat the rest (which he did) with the level of fitness he took into the race. I know Kauto went away from the last, but Long Run had hit a few and was not as fit as Kauto so I'm actually of the belief this wasn't too bad a performance for Long Run. Although I've already backed MM a little while back I think Long Run is probably the most likely winner on Boxing Day no matter who turns up. I think he'll be fitter and sharper at his fences and that will make the difference. As for the GC I still expect one or two of the 2nd season chasers to have a say, particularly the Irish trio (QDLR, Quel Esprit & Bostons Angel) |
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listening to nicholls talking about master minded he was at pains to point out that it would be crazy to have that horse at peak so soon when his big day is boxing day.....well kautos big day was on saturday.....nicholls wanted to absolutely give himself every possible chance of ramming some comments from some people back down their throats about retiring the horse.....and it's to that end that i personally wouldn't rule out a far more disappointing run from kauto next time.
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Lacson, that is a very interesting point of view and a great post, for which thank you. Your analysis of the Betfair Chase v KG runs is fascinating. I am one of those who thinks LR will improve for the run, but a nagging doubt is that many horses are never as good again after a hard Gold Cup - maybe that will be the case for LR.
As an aside, it's interesting that you say Henderson looked crestfallen. I only saw the pictures on C4, but there he looked delighted - like he knew he was part of something special. |
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^
henderson said as much on ruk yesterday |
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Sorry duffy, said what?
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delighted even in defeat that they'd been part of something special....said they were obviously disappointed but didn't give the impression that they were too downbeat.
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Last year's staying novices seem to suck - the British ones at least, not sure about the Irish yet. It gets harder to look past the old stagers (inc Long Run) every weekend.
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Agree TFR/Wymott/Wayward Prince arent winning the gold cup... If the Irish Novices dont improve - and I have my doubts after Quito barely got up to beat Sizing - Looks like there is no competition for Long Run this year
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Quel Esprit ran well the other day over inadequate trip,Bostons Angel would have won in Quitos race imo had he not fallen.Jessies Dream still to be seen.All these could improve enough to be lively contenders.Quito as well.
Wayward Prince clouted one yesterday,would give him another chance myself. |
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Well if Grand Crus goes the gold cup route i'd think he can serve it up to Long Run..
He would be a fascinating contender in what looks a weak renewal to the Gold Cup for me... |
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Budd - I also thought Bostons was going better than Quito when he fell, but it was too far out to say who'd have won. It would be good to see him (or them) at Sandown on Friday.
I also feel Jessie's Dream could be the best of last year's RSA novices but I've read he'll only run once before the Gold Cup, which can't be an ideal preparation. |
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Looking more and more like the Long Run and Kauto Star show in March.
Who are the challengers?? I still aint given up on the likes of Quito,Jessies,QE and Magnanimity,which makes the Lexus interesting,but nothing this season has boosted my confidence i had in them. Only other i see as a potential threat is Grand Crus,but will he run?i doubt it myself. The doubtful stayers failed yesterday,dont see them running now. |
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i have to say,im a massive Rubi Light fan,He is gonna be a Top Chaser,a massive stamp of a horse who seems to be improving massivly with every run,Currently 20/1 for the GC,He'll do for me at this stage
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the going will be crucial, most want it soft especially the Irish contingent
Kauto wants good or quicker |
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CheltFestNews @CheltFestNews 1m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Long Run likely to contest the Denman AON Chase before the Gold Cup according to owner as King George was three weeks later last season. |
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That will be a treat. Always good to see the top horses race.
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So after today's Lexus(poor result for racing). Who are the contenders. Firm favourites Long run and Kauto Star go without saying, but who else? What a Friend finished a nose behind Kauto in last years Gold Cup, so must have some sort of chance and trainer stated earlier in season was being aimed at the race plus Punchestown festival. Burton Port if he turns up fully fit, any news on him? And my last thought Quel Esprit because he's not exposed, may not be good enough, but we don't know yet?
Honestly can't make a case for anything else on all known form. Grands Crus + Big Bucks? But won't run and why should they? |
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I think Grands Crus is much more likely to run now than he was a week ago.
Kauto seems to have improved a lot since last season for whatever reason - I can't see WAF touching him. The one unexposed Irish horse might be Jessies Dream, but it's hard to make a case for him based on the poor form of last season's novices. I can only see Long Run, Kauto and perhaps Grands Crus running to the mid-170s+ and to me it looks between the three. |
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Rubi Light's trainer Robbie Hennessy was not too despondent. He said: "We know he definitely stays three miles. He could go for the Red Mills or the Hennessy."
Devestated, would have been my biggest pay out ever, by a long long way! Bl00dy Synchronised, couldn't have you just stayed in Wales!!! I think Rubi Light did stay 3m, although at first I didn't think he did. Turning for home he didn't really lose any ground to Quito is a thorough stayer. Maybe the John Durkan took more out of him than they thought, but can only see him going the Ryanair now. Trying to lay my Gold Cup bet off, but will be surprised if there are any takers. |