Kauto 'had a small bleed after the race. Straight for the GC now'

Yeah he should have been retired twice in the 08 season. Cop on RC, he deserves to finish in the Gold Cup no matter what. One run does not tell you a horse is finished.

He ran a stinker in the Betfair chase in 08 and people said he was finished. It's just because we're so used to his supreme consistency that when he has a bad run people go into hyper overdrive and proclaim his end. I'm sure they'll retire him after the Gold Cup, unless he somehow wins it. Anyway, pressure is off Kauto Star. He owes us nothing and he can go to Cheltenham with zero expectations.

Now I see Pandorama goes there for certain and I've tasty odds on him.

CVB - I'm sure they'll retire him after the Gold Cup, unless he somehow wins it. Anyway, pressure is off Kauto Star. He owes us nothing and he can go to Cheltenham with zero expectations - agreed.

I have said on here about a month ago, with the caveat, "you can call me crazy" but Kempton is no longer Kauto's track, he's more a Cheltenham horse, he's a big slow boat now and he was outpaced in Down Royal down the back by young 2milers. If he's to be beaten at Kempton he'll be going too fast from the start. Cheltenham is more a stayers track and he's an out and out stayer now.

Since this was my view before the race, and exactly what I said transpired, then I'm strongly of the opinion he should go to Cheltenham. Look at Imperial Commanders record at Kempton.

For the first time in his career (or second GC08) you can say Kauto Star was beaten by a better horse in Long Run yesterday. I said when that happens it'll be his final season racing. Long Run will be better in the next King George and Kauto older. I'm certain he'll be retired after the Gold Cup this year. I really feel privileged to have seen this truly special horse.

Paul sets the record straight following Kauto's King George defeat and targets a return to winning ways in the big one at Cheltenham.

I have just tweeted that Kauto Star "did have a small bleed after the race and will go straight for the Gold Cup now" - but I will expand on that here.

Firstly, I would like to thank all the people who came along to Kempton to cheer on Kauto Star yesterday. And all those who expressed their good wishes before and after the race.

It is an honour to be associated with the horse.

But I can tell you now that reports of his demise are somewhat exaggerated, and there is no talk of retirement here.

I have just spoken to Clive. We agreed that yesterday now gives us a bit of challenge with the horse - and hopefully we, and most importantly, the horse will rise to it.

He will be prepared for a tilt at a third Gold Cup victory in March - different ground, different track, different day - and we would like to aim him for a third victory at Down Royal in the autumn, too.

As long as he is enjoying his racing and running well, then he will continue - he is 11, not 13.

Yesterday, was undoubtedly a big disappointment. He was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency, but it wasn't as if he ran a poor race. Without his blunder at the second last, he probably would have been a fair second to a very good horse.

But that clearly wasn't his best form.

I am not making excuses but I can reveal that when he got back last night and stuck his head in the water bucket, he bled from both nostrils. He has never done it before, and will probably never do it again.

It wasn't a big bleed but it indicates that he probably bled during the race (possibly after his mistake at the second last, which meant he had to dig deep to get home), which would not have aided his cause.

But the horse was fine going into the race. You may have read this morning that he wasn't buzzing in his box yesterday. But he is like a seasoned human athlete these days. Experience of big races breeds a certain calmness, and I think he was A1 going into the race, so there are no excuses on that score.

So it is up to me and my team here at Ditcheat to get him right for Cheltenham; and we will relish the challenge.

We fancied The Nightingale to run well but he may have found 3m too far.

I can reveal exclusively here that he finished distressed and we have discovered that he has a fibrillating heart, similar to the problem that Denman suffered from.

More about him in Friday's column.

If they do choose to run,I'm sure it will be with the instructions to pull him up quickly should he not be travelling at any stage.
I can envisage a similiar sitation to Istabraaq,with him receiving an ovation from the crowd,as the main field head out on the final circuit.

For all his class he really is a battler as well, ****in great horse.

Found it very interesting what Sam Waley-Cohen was saying yesterday about how Kauto usually 'half-lengths' horses and it reminded me of his last KG where he pinged every fence on the 2nd backstraight and moved up to Nacarat without having to really put in any effort between the fences. That just didn't happen yesterday, Mccoy seemed to be nagging him between fences and didn't slowly wind the rhythm up like Ruby did last year.

I dont know if that was because it was Mccoy or because the horse wasnt right or whatever - but Nicholls is right that bar the mistake at 2nd last - he was not all that far off winning. Obviously not as consistent recently but still not convinced he's declining yet.

CVB - you know Kauto better than (or as well as) anyone, having followed his career so closely, but if Cheltenham is now more his track because stamina is now his strength (when speed once was) how do you account for his laboured run in the race last yr?

He was beaten (IMO) when he fell.

His 2 wins were (IMO) all about speed - the first race was a poor renewal and it turned into a sprint. His second was against moderate horses on very decent ground. The 2 times the track has had cut, and placed a severe emphasis on stamina, he looked laboured and beaten early (possibly the race where I warmed to the horse so much was his defeat by Denman, where he showed incredible courage).

I think he has acted at his best on that track when the emphasis was not on stamina - ok, the horse may now need a test of stamina, the horse's preference may have changed, but last yr's race was about both speed and stamina, certainly with an emphasis on stamina, and he was beaten early.

My opinion is that the horse cannot win a slog, he does not act at his very best of stamina sapping ground because he cannot travel on it, and he cannot jump out of it, and the only way he can win a Gold Cup is if the ground comes up really decent - but even if it did come up really decent this yr, he probably no longer possesses his awesome powers to take advantage. 

CVB - i am not being funny with this line of enquiry, its just my opinion, and I respect your view so I wondered what you made of my theory. Happy to be hammered for it!

RC

oh and at least we going to get a lovely price for Kauto in the gold cup now, and Ruby back on board can't wait :)

Brooksie - and the yr he was beaten by Denman? And the fact that his best runs in the GC were in races where the emphasis was on speed?

If he hadn't bled, I'd have been happy to take the 8/1 NRNB about Kauto for the GC after yesterday.  That was patently not his form - never travelled throughout and the following observation from the RP analysis well worth taking into account, imo:

It seems probable that he´s now past his best, but it needs pointing out that some of his trainer´s horses are not running as well as usual, and that may have been a contributory factor. For example, when Kauto Star won the race in December 2009, Paul Nicholls had a 21% strike-rate for the month. In 08 he was at 23% for the month, 07 he was 26%, and 06 he was 18%. This time, though, Nicholls started the day 4-35 in January, a strike-rate of only 11%, and finished the afternoon 4-43 after a further eight losers. It´s asking a lot of Kauto Star to ever recapture his greatness, but it wouldn´t surprise if he´s still capable of better when his yard inevitably returns to top form. He´s out to 12-1 for the Gold Cup.

Shame about the visible bleed: as mentioned earlier, many horses break blood vessels but when it's bad enough to show through the nose then, imo, they're best left alone.

So Brooksie you are usuing the infected foot excuse for his defeat at the hands of Denman, in the most savage and stamina sapping Gold Cup in recent yrs? Interesting that, because PFN doesn't even use that. IMO that is pure rubbish. I think you are the ony person using that excuse.

I would n't buy into that either - I'm sure plenty of other horses have similar problems that don't see the light of day - the highest profile horse with the highest profile and most open trainer so we know more about him than most of the others.

If they'd seriously thought that was a problem, unlikely he'd have run imo.

I'm not in any way being critical of this great horse, I just think it merits consideration that he really is not a slogger and his classiest runs have been on really decent ground, and if that ground now prevails he may not have the lethal edge he once did.

I think he stays well enough, but i just dont think that is or ever will be his greatest strength. he was making ground on denman because denman went so fast in the 2nd circuit he was running on vapours at that point.

Both KS and Denman should be retired already. I consider it greed. They owe connections nothing and deserve to retire in one piece, not have a gun held to their heads to gallop for three and a quarter miles in such a gruelling race as the GC... again. KS could have broken his neck in last year's GC, and Denman could have broken his leg at Aintree. A small bleed but all systems go for the GC. I think it is shameful.

If kauto won the gold cup though for me it would be the most memorable event in NH racing ever. The field would have it all, the young ones in Long Run, Diamond Harry, the current champ in Imperial Commander, throw in Denman. The gold cup might just actually be a very interesting race this year :)