Exactly Resner!

For all those Kauto fans who want to see him retired after coming third in the King George, just imagine the scenes if he actually won.

Okay, he may not have a favourites chance, but he's probably got a 10/1-ish chance, which is better than Cool Dawn and Norton's Coin.

In terms of understanding Kauto, how important is this idea that he is a rhythm horse?

I know the idea of a 'rhythm horse' is a slightly odd notion in the sense that all racehorses need to be in some kind of rhythm to be running well. But it would seem to be a matter of degree. There have been a few great champions, like Inglis Drever, who had that unusual ability to be able to win major races even though they would hit flat spots and run in snatches to some extent. Then there are those like Denman who are able to pulverise their opponents primarily through a strenuous, galloping effort. Kauto's brilliance was more his ability to get into a fantastic rhythm and travel very easily through his races, leaving him plenty at the end to speed home if needed.

In abstract terms, it may be fair to say Kauto is not the most stamina-laden horse to compete at the top level in staying chases. However, once in a good rhythm he travels through his races so economically that he is able to stay a stiff three miles more than adequately.

Once in a good rhythm, it is also difficult for his opponents to put pressure on Kauto because they would need to expend so much effort to match and surpass his high cruising speed. Denman, I believe, was good enough in the 2008 Gold Cup to expose the limits of Kauto's high cruising speed, but it took a fantastic effort and an amazing burst of sustained speed in the second third of the final circuit to win the race. Even without any excuses, I am not sure that Kauto even at his very best would have been able to withstand that amazing effort Denman put in. If it makes sense to say this, Kauto would have needed to be more a horse like Denman to match the muscular, galloping effort that propelled Denman to victory in the 2008 Gold Cup. Denman wasn't going to be beaten on that occasion by a horse that wins it races primarily within the orbit of a high cruising speed and a good, controlled jumping rhythm.

You can't really say Kauto was beaten for stamina or beaten for speed in 2008; it was a mix of the two - it was a sustained burst of speed from Denman that beat him.

I feel that the difficulty for Kauto now is that it becomes harder with age to access that fantastic rhythm that is the hallmark of his brilliance. The timing in the jumping goes a bit as they get older which makes it harder to access and maintain a good rhythm. There also may be some signs that Kauto has lost a bit of tactical speed, or at least has become a bit more vulnerable to being outpaced for a time in his races. The effort needed to make up ground after being outpaced can easily result in a loss of rhythm and contribute to the kind of jumping errors we saw from Kauto two out in the KG at the weekend.

If Kauto has lost a bit of tactical speed, that would make him more vulnerable at sharper tracks or where the early pace is only modest. Ironically, both factors were in play in the King George at the weekend. The early pace wasn't as strong as it had been in the 2009 King George and the horses came home from the thirteenth fence much quicker at the weekend, around which point Kauto seemed to get a bit outpaced.

The extra distance and the stiffer track in the Gold Cup, might allow Kauto a bit more scope to work his way back into the race if he were to get outpaced at any point or if he makes a jumping error through which he loses momentum. And if he were to get good ground, that would seem to be one of the factors that most assists him in getting into a good rhythm. But more things would have to fall right for Kauto to win the Gold Cup this time, than for any occasion previously, I would say, and that seems to me the main factor that has to be weighed up when deciding what would be a value price to bet him for this year's renewal.

Roger, I will be there and that is exactly what I will be hoping for - I just don't believe it's possible anymore.
What I would say though is I'm not writing him off just on the strength of the KG. I don't think he's been at his best in his last 3 runs.

My concern stems from the way he jumps under pressure. If he were a sound jumper I wouldn't be worried about him running. I don't think he'll be out of place at all, the GC is still his level, I just think that where he had a favourite's chance in years gone by, I wouldn't be that surprised if he finished unplaced this year. He's almost certain to come under pressure as well, so weighing everything up thats why I'm not keen for them to run.

Yeh - but just imagine if......

[;)]

In the Gold Cup then, perhaps Ruby should just drop him right out and let him go as fast as he is comfortable with and gear everything up for a late effort between the last two. He was very handy at Kempton maybe a change of tactics might help

Agree 100% Steeple.

Reminded me of Gold Cup 2008 where he wasn't going at any point, same as in Betfair Chase 08, he was not at the races those days.

I need to see him traveling from the start and then still beaten. Like Denman in last years Gold Cup, he ran a good race but IC was just better.

10/1 is certainly e/w value for the Gold Cup. I'll write my reasoning for it this week.

Just playing devil's advocate here, Steeple - even if you ignore his last run, arguably his 2 prior runs were nowhere near his usual form (though I think while Down Royal did make me suspicious, it can be argued it was just a prep with a horse be readied steadily for a later target).

To be fair he made a mistake when travelling supremely well in last years Gold Cup. That all but ended his race. Down Royal was fine, it was a prep race. While you have that poor King George run.

You've just got to take a position on this, regression or simply a bad day at the races for Kauto.

I thought there was nothing wrong with his Down Royal run and rate Sizing Europe quite highly.  In the GC at least he was travelling mighty convincingly (unlike Saturday) and looked really on his game till that awful blunder; did supremely well to work his way back into it at all, imo.

CVB will confirm that I've made more cases against the horse than for him, but that was nothing like his form on Saturday.  Above all else, it was Kempton where he's won 4 KGs unextended by an aggregate of 63 lengths. He is the Kempton horse supreme and that was simply not him on Saturday.

Steeple has had many cases against Kauto over the years. All proven wrong too

If the horse was regressing, connections would be the first to say that in an effort to defend the horses form. Instead they are bullish.

He is some serious e/w value, and is also a great trading opportunity.

Fair enough CVB & Steeple (and everyone else), just canvassing and interesting to hear the variety of views.

in last seasons gold cup, kauto was on the bunny and absolutely bouncing until the blunder

but i have said for 6 months that i would be amazed if he can come out for a 7th season of chasing and be anywhere near as good as he was

his run in down royal to my eye was without his normal zest. yes i know pfn always holds plenty back, but this was not the kauto we have seen down the years
and his run in the george was there for everyone to see. that time has caught up with this fella.

straight after the race connections and people on here admitted to the age factor, but now this bleed has offered a tiny light of hope he can bounce back.

i think he deserves a swan song at chelt, but he has little chance of placing imo

yeh,thats fair as well steeple,but was he really that bad on Saturday on the 1st circuit?? watched it again today,thought he was fairly comfortable for a fair way.

quote from trainer (though, tbf, he always finds an excuse!)

"Yesterday, was undoubtedly a big disappointment. He was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency, but it wasn't as if he ran a poor race. Without his blunder at the second last, he probably would have been a fair second to a very good horse.

"But that clearly wasn't his best form"

My impression during the first part of the race was that he was not travelling with his usual bounce. He jumped 9 really well but more severe alarm bells were evident as they went out past the winning post and he was being pushed (or not travelling kindly, his trademark) into 10 and 11 - he was probably beaten at that point.

Seems such a mystery how you get a horse keen to race and settled into a good rhythm on the race track. If it were an easy puzzle for trainers and jockeys to solve, the performance record of each horse would show far greater consistency than is the case in reality.

There have been three or four occasions in Kauto's career when he hasn't travelled well and didn't attack his fences in quite the way he normally does. There probably isn't a single explanation that would account for those below par runs. On Saturday, it was a shame they didn't go faster in the early stages, as that I think would have provided a better indication of just where we are with Kauto at this stage in his career. The best test of when a horse has regressed is how well they cope in races where the pace is very demanding from the start - if they have regressed, they usually run out of puff in such races just as the others are starting to race for home (I think we saw that, for example, with Hardy Eustace in his final run in the CH; he went well off a fast early pace for two thirds of the way and then just couldn't keep the gallop up any more as they were turning for home and he was challenged for the lead).

I don't think there was any clear evidence on Saturday that Kauto ran out of puff. He just never seemed to get into a good rhythm or attack his fences with the verve he normally does. At the point in the race at which you might have expected him to be fading if he had regressed significantly, he was actually starting to mount a fairly determined  challenge to LR after three out, only then to put in a very poorly coordinated jump at the second last, which effectively ended his chances of finishing second.

Kauto did seem a bit keen in the early stages on Saturday. It could be that he was seeing too much daylight (McCoy rode him a touch more prominently than Walsh possibly would have) or that the relatively moderate early pace was unsettling the horse. Equally, it is often said that keenness can be a sign of a horse not feeling physically right and up to the task of racing. All-in-all, very hard to know what to make of Kauto's run, but while the horse can still make and withstand challenges in the final stages of races, as he did in reasonably good company at Down Royal, it is probably too soon to be saying he has regressed significantly.

Let's face it everyone on here with half a brain has expected this to happen. His run at Down Royal although as some will say was normal for a first run was possibly a bit worse than first expected. I don't think the horses he beat that day were any good at all and if there was a Pandorama in there he would have got beat. I love Kauto and he has been great over the years but you can't expect himself and Denman to keep going back to the drawing board after dissapointing runs and pull out huge runs after. It just doesn't happen forever. Kauto's strength has always been his cruising speed and acceleration and if he has lost that then he's not winning the Gold Cup. As for Clive Smith criticizing McCoy's style I think that is very babyish and if he knows anything about racing he must feel slightly embarrassed about his comments. I went to see Kauto at Kempton and although the commentator didn't seem to you knew Kauto wasn't going very well after the first circuit. I just hope Kauto and Denman go out on a high whenever they retire but that will be up to the owners I guess. I just hope they look outside the box a bit. Bleeding for a first time isn't a freak accident. It's probably a sign.

Sizing Europe and China Rock are very good horses and fit ones at that. China Rock is going to surprise a fair few of you in the gold cup.

I think people often go OTT regards KS when he is beaten. No doubt Ruby suits him better, Nicholls runners under a cloud, ground too sticky & several bad blunders. When he clouted the 2nd last he was starting to stay on & would have shook up the winner IMO & still finished 3rd with all this against him. He is all class & ggod ground, Ruby on board & PN runners in form KS can win the GC for the 3rd time, albeit he is undoubtedly on the wane.

Can't wait to be at Chelters with my 12/1 bet [;)]

I guess you have to assume he is regressing at the age he is. The issue is more how far has he regressed. As Steeple suggests, you would be hard pressed to provide firm evidence at this stage that the horse has deteriorated significantly.

Haventaclue referred to "still being high class but the magic has gone" and that seemed to me a good way of expressing where we may now be with Kauto. But that is more an assumption I am making about the horse, rather than something I would feel happy making a case for on the basis of the evidence so far from his recent runs.

I don't think anyone has mentioned Monet's Garden in connection with this topic. He may be more the exception than the rule for older race horses, but his final two seasons were a real swansong. There were times over the last three years when I felt he wasn't quite hitting the high notes in his races and it was probably time for an honourable retirement. But then he would come out again, still competing at quite a high level, and look almost as good as he was in his prime. What a fantastic performance he put up in his last race, not least because he still appeared so keen to compete and retained enough ability to back that up.

You have to be as  careful about writing them off prematurely as you do about keeping them going longer than can be defended. Not an easy place to be for the trainer and connections.