Cheltenham Festival
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Kauto 'had a small bleed after the race. Straight for the GC now'
Kauto 'had a small bleed after the race. Straight for the GC now'
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'Regression' is bandied about as a buzz word in racing these days, especially on this forum. From what I can find in definitions, the most broadly accepted interpretation is 'to return to a former state'. Some describe it as a former less developed or less perfect state, but in strictest terms I don't think it's accurate when describing the potential decline of a racehorse. KS, and others, might well be in decline, but 'regression' could suggest a return to his best as much as to his worst. Anyway, pedantic rant over.
Sometimes I post on here on the simple interpretation of what I've seen, always with the caveat that it is simply personal opinion; for example I might see a young horse who I think could turn out to be top class. I have no evidence whatsoever that this prediction will prove correct, I'm just voicing my opinion based on intuition and experience as much as anything else. I prefer to post when I have evidence to back up my opinion. Sometimes I'm spectacularly wrong (I thought KS could not win a 2nd Gold Cup as it had been almost three years since he had won left handed and he had a startling winning record going right-handed), I was wrong, but at least there was plenty of evidence to support my theory. I posted early last season that Voy Por Ustedes had become a most unreliable jumper bringing fire and brimstone on my head until people actually started looking properly at his recent form rather than at the jumper he used to be. The point is, to my mind at least, for all you 'regression' theorists, are you seriously citing the KG run as evidence? The jury is out on the Down Royal form as Sizing Europe and China Rock (2nd and 3rd) have not been seen since. The RP summary as follows: Tracked leader in 2nd, close up 5 out, pushed along in 2nd approaching 3 out, led 3 out, ridden before next, kept on strongly from last Prior to this is his Gold Cup run. How many horses could have got back into contention in a field of such quality after that blunder at the eighth? What I believe might have set him back is the effect on his confidence of the awful fall he took at Cheltenham. I'd be more open to that than an age-based 'regression' theory. Maybe I saw Saturday's race differently from the 'regressioners', but, I'd have laid him after jumping the third - he simply looked nothing like his normal self. If he was in decline, he would at least have run most of his race before dropping away as the effects of age wearied him at the business end. Instead, his class and courage kept him battling on till that blunder put an end to any chance. This despite bleeding and a yard in very poor form (an extremely rare occurrence for Nicholls). In summary, neither the Gold Cup nor the Down Royal run provide evidence of decline and the KG certainly does not imo. Again, I am not saying the horse is not in decline, only that there is no worthwhile evidence for it. |
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At the end of the day Kauto has now failed to do himself justice in his last 2 runs in a big race,that is fact.He has run 4 impressive races in the King George and this year ran badly,that also is fact.
We can try and figure out why till the cows come home,but really only his next race can tell us at what level he is now imo.Thats why its imo a massive race for the horse,another failure will see him retired i think,but if he proves he has just had a blip and comes back and performs as he can,then thats a different story. Wait till March is what i shall do. |
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I believe Bud to be right on this matter, but I would just say that since his King George romp last yr he has not run to that level of form since - so it is not based on 1 run, but 3. Yes, there may have been excuses, but excuses (legitimate or otherwise) for 3 subsequent moderate runs could be interpreted as simply covering up a trend. I get the feeling that there are too many excuses being used here, and they are masking the fact of deterioration (is that a better word than regresion, Steeple? [;)]).
I sincerely hope I am wrong, and I have written the horse off prematurely before - initially at Aintree on his come-back run the yr after his first gold cup win, then after his Gold Cup defeat by Denman, then when he was beaten at Aintree by the Pipe horse, then last yr after his Gold Cup fall. I believe I was wrong each time except the last - as Bud says, however, whilst the evidence is inconclusive, only time will tell. He could, like Mill House, come back and bring the house down. I would love it if he did. I actually almost feel disrespectful to the great horse, this level of analysis. Even though this is Nicholls' worst run of form for a while, his horses have often gone into King Georg day in slightly worse form than ealy/late autumn before. Someone will provide stats showing otherwise I'm sure, but i have once or twice lauded Kauto's King George performance with the rider 'from a stable out of form', and only half in jest. I said on the forum elsewhere at the start of January that this drop in Nicholls' form (albeit not to this extent) is in fact annual. He's on record as saying that he (learnt from Barron, his mentor, to) trains them hard till the turn of the yr, then let them down and build them up again from the NY towards the festivals. |
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The drop in his level of form has often coincided with Christmas/New Yr, the administration of flu-jabs, and letting them down to build back up again.
Btw, to Barney, I believe PFN had told Nicholls to ride Kauto prominently, as he had been at Down Royal (to a greater or lesser extent). I could be wrong, but i am certain I have read this in the fall out since the race. More than 1 poster on here has said that the horse is now a slower stayer - riding him for a turn of foot would nto be right on a stayer. I actually believe him to be a speed horse, one who has fractionally deteriorated from a sublime height, and one who does not really act at his very best any more on quite testing ground. |
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* - PFN had told AP...
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RC, regarding the stable form for the KG (albeit, late this year), a paste from my earlier post quoting the RP:
It seems probable that he´s now past his best, but it needs pointing out that some of his trainer´s horses are not running as well as usual, and that may have been a contributory factor. For example, when Kauto Star won the race in December 2009, Paul Nicholls had a 21% strike-rate for the month. In 08 he was at 23% for the month, 07 he was 26%, and 06 he was 18%. This time, though, Nicholls started the day 4-35 in January, a strike-rate of only 11%, and finished the afternoon 4-43 after a further eight losers. It´s asking a lot of Kauto Star to ever recapture his greatness, but it wouldn´t surprise if he´s still capable of better when his yard inevitably returns to top form. He´s out to 12-1 for the Gold Cup. As for you 'regressioners', make up your mind [;)]: you can't say "he's in decline but I'll wait and see his next run before declaring for sure". You either believe he is or he isn't - we don't have the luxury of awaiting next runs! |
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My understanding of the word 'regression' is the opposite of 'progression'.
To take a step backwards, instead of taking a step forwards. To me the word is thoroughly appropriate in such circumstances. KS in my mind is taking backward steps; we have seen the best of him. The question is, does he need to be at HIS best to compete with everyone elses best? I think there are too many younger progressive horses waiting in the wings. Long Run, Diamond Harry, Pandorama and Weird Al to name but four. For me Pandorama is the potential superstar amongst the current crop and I dont think he needs the very soft ground most people presume he does! Just my opinion! |
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Hi Steeple. You are right. Do we believe he is, or isn't? I've said everywhere that I believe he is. However, i'm prepared to accept I could be wrong, and the next run will tell us more, or the run after, but I would be very surprised if he hadn't declined and wasn't in decline.
Btw, an interesting comparison would be to examine Nicholls month s/r when the horse has won the King George before, and look at his s/r in the month prior. Do we know whether, for example, PFN had a better s/r in Nov 08 compared to his 23% s/r in Dec 08; in Nov 07 compared to his Dec 07 s/r of 26%; and in Nov 06 compared to his Dec 06 s/r of 18%. I do not know about last yr, when they did not appear 'right' for much of the autmn (from memory) - were they better in Nov 09 than Dec 09? My point being that if his s/t has traditionally dipped in the month of the KG compared to the prior month, it may not pay to make too much of that excuse this time (except this time his s/r had dipped to a low I do not recall he has ever before experienced). |
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I think that the horse deserves one more go at the GC but no matter how he runs in the race surely that should be it, talk of him running at Down Royal next season is shocking imo the horse deserves a long and happy retirement, why keep him in training when age is clearly catching him up.
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Steeple,what iam saying is i dont know if he is in decline,so will wait until next time he runs and see how he does then,thats my choice.I am also saying their is sufficient evidence to think he may be,but it aint conclusive,thats why i will wait before a definite judgement.
In the meantime i will have a good think about whether to take the odds now available,cos if its down to trainer form,bl00dy nose,then he is value. Whats wrong with that mate?? |
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Like R Carver I believe Kauto to be in decline, but would happily be proved wrong.
One thing I don't buy into though is that he's now a slower stamina horse - IMO that basically means he can't do what he used to and he isn't as good/fast as he used to be. The fact he's still able to compete at the highest level is a measure of how good he was. But the slower stamina horse - thats just dressing things up. And while he can compete, he's not the boss anymore, and is "only" able to compete which suggests decline to me. |
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Nothing wrong with it Budd - you've covered all the bases. You'd make an excellent politician!
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ha ha,i just dont know steeple,simple as that.
My gut feeling is he aint gonna win a GC again,or a KG,but i may be wrong and if the price is tempting on the day i may well play,but pretty sure i wont be antepost on him. |
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Steeple wrote: If he was in decline, he would at least have run most of his race before dropping away as the effects of age wearied him at the business end. Instead, his class and courage kept him battling on till that blunder put an end to any chance. This despite bleeding and a yard in very poor form (an extremely rare occurrence for Nicholls).
I think the most reliable indicator of when a good horse has declined to the point where retirement really should beckon is, as Steeple notes, when there is clear evidence they can no longer make and withstand challenges effectively in the final stages of true run races in good company. I don't see the evidence that we have reached that point yet with Kauto. However, I think there may be a few signs appearing that his tactical speed and timing are not quite as sharp as they were. That in itself wouldn't necessarily stop him from running well again in top company in a competitive field, but it does lessen the chances of him winning another top prize by a fair degree, I would say, given that some quality appears to be emerging now among the younger challengers and also paying respect to the quality of the established opposition in the form of Denman and Imperial Commander. Odd word 'regression', indeed. I see that to regress can also mean "a series of statements in which the same arguments are constantly repeated and no conclusion can be reached". Makes us all 'regressionists', I guess, if you think about the long-running debates we've had on the forum down the years, not least about Kauto and Denman.  |
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Nicholls just tweeted
K Star blood tests just back, shows signs is inflammation and infection. Weeks of antibiotics and easy few days. Some effort to come 3rd in the king george when sick. I've dived in for 2pt e/w at 10/1 for the gold cup. |
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Brought tears to my eyes when I think back to him mounting a challenge as he rounded the home turn, sick with bleeding lungs he gave his all until he hit the second last.
True utter legend. I backed him for the gold cup at 10/1 there. Best ever for me by an immeasurable distance. What a horse. |
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My gut feeling is he aint gonna win a GC again,or a KG,but i may be wrong and if the price is tempting on the day i may well play,but pretty sure i wont be antepost on him.
This is the key point - the key point really in any punting debate. Not do you think he will win, but at what odds does he become a backable proposition. Okay, I understand that with KS and other superstars who have an emotional (for want of a better word) following as well as a punting following, it IS all about him winning another GC or King George, but for everyone else it's about his price. It always makes me laugh when someone comes on and goes 'so-and-so has no chance' because so-and-so invariably does have a chance - that's what it's odds are. FWIW if Kauto is 12/1 on the day I'll be a backer. |
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Kauto will be shorter then 10/1 on the day meaning you can lay some of the stake back. Value in antepost, also serious ew value at 10/1.
That prices him at a 9% chance of winning and a 28.5% chance of placing. In my opinion, after the blood tests he has a better chance than that. |
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This user is offline. R Carver Date Joined: 19 Nov 09 Add contact | Send message When: 16 Jan 11 20:32 So Brooksie you are usuing the infected foot excuse for his defeat at the hands of Denman, in the most savage and stamina sapping Gold Cup in recent yrs? Interesting that, because PFN doesn't even use that. IMO that is pure rubbish. I think you are the ony person using that excuse. No i have been also, ever since that race in 08, maybe it the reason PN has not used that as the excuse because the fact that race was being billed as the best ever, with massive media coverage and although kauto was not at his best, he was fit and ready to race and a place was at best what Nichols secretly was hoping for? That is my opinion anyways. Also to not jump well, and to decrease a deficit of upwards of 20lengths down to just 7 lengths at the line is some performance in my book! |
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I have only read the first page of this thread having come onto it late, can't be bothered to read the rest to be honest as it is about the same thing.
Yeah these blood tests are very interesting aren't they. I was inclined to believe he maybe now too old and getting on etc etc but now this puts a new light to the debate. A gold cup run on proper good ground is what he wants, and should he get it will be 5/1 on the day imo! At 10/1 e/way is massive imo! I love this horse, owes no one nothing! I have a feeling that he could bow out just like Istabraq did, there is a chance of that happening. |
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Thik i will pass on current odds,no telling how he will be after this setback,and even if he will turn up!! will look on the day if he is there,no worries about taking shorter odds for a definite run.Horse is sick at the moment.
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Can anyone who knows anything about horses comment on whether the infection and the bleed could be linked or two separate ailments?
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The inflammation suggests it may have caused the bleeding. The infection probably caused the inflammation. He has never bled before, and he has never been sick after a race before so the two could well be linked. Though the 2nd last fence may have caused the bleeding, but he's had worse before and not bled.
Add this info to the storey of the race where he didn't look right from the start and you would gave a hard time proving any regression theory. |
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Well CVB i've tried a few times above! This development, it is reasonable to say, probably goes towards explaining his (relatvely) poor run LTO. The horse cannot talk, so it is pure conjecture, but I would be surprised if a horse could run to his best with a bleed amd when sick.
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http://www.buzzle.com/articles/178723.html
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We're into realms of vetinary knowledge here but I guess that a hard-run Gold Cup on undulating ground in 8 weeks time is not the best scenario for a known, um, 'bleeder'.
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Yes, CV, I think you are right to surmise a connection between the virus and the bleeding. A horse less brave and honest might have made less effort under the circumstances and thereby the risk of bleeding when the pressure was on would have been less.
It will be interesting to see how far the GC price contracts now this news is available. |
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* infection, sorry.
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A known bleeder haha, nonsense, the first time he's bled in his career when he had an infection and hit a fence hard.
He's hardly captain cee bee now. |
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http://bit.ly/ewONcP.
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CV I dunno how you can argue with the fact he bled on Saturday, therefore he is a known bleeder QED
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Though in fairness it is horses that are known regularly to bleed from the lungs through the nostrils that are referred to as 'bleeders'. No reason to think yet it is a chronic condition with Kauto, though from what I understand, once the bleeding is sufficiently acute to show through the nostrils, it makes them more susceptible to future episodes of bleeding under the strain of racing. And, of course, there is greater susceptibility to bleeding among older horses.
The added strain of an infection/inflammation presumably could have been a contributory factor in the bleeding through the nostrils, through its impact on blood pressure and the horse's breathing. Though possibly the physical impact and disruption to breathing from hitting the second last fence was the immediate cause of the rupturing, as the trainer suggested. |
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The bleeding could have easily been from either. An impact on the chest could have traumatised lung tissue and the inflammation caused by an infection could have led to minor bleeds within the deeper tissues. Horses that bleed usually do so during the exertion of the race and blood is seen at the nostrils at the time. Did I read that KS had blod at his nostrils only when he put his head down to drink some time after? Not sure of the significance there but slightly odd.
My feeling is the resp inf will clear up quickly after a short course of antibiotic and the blood was most likely due to the second last fence impact. The horse not travelling well during the race (by his normal standards) was most likely dt the resp inf. Is he still the same horse? I still think he's had his day, but all of the above add more intrigue to this years race and 10-1 is certainly tempting EW! |
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And you regressionists hopefully will not mind me saying that this reinforces my view that the KG needs to be completely ignored
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I won't ignore the fact Long Run loves the track.
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Have to say, there have been some amazing posts on here, particularly from Aka whose "rhythm theory" is a revelation. I for one do believe he is in decline now and his courage has meant he was able to get back into the Gold Cup and King George when all appeared lost. I also totally agree with the good ground factor, he has always been so much better on it and it is becoming crucial these days. However, what I found interesting are the times he has run to in the last five King Georges. His winning times are:
6.05.70 gd/sf 6.09.40 gd/sf 5.57.40 gd 6.07.10 gd/sf This year, and this is hard to believe (as the ground was for me a shade softer than 2009), he ran the same time (about 6:07) as he had when recording his huge mid-190s figure the last time he was here despite clouting the second-last this time. How do we make sense of that? In my opinion, that 2009 KG performance was as a result of his opponents going a mad pace and falling into a hole and the idea put forward by Aka that he was able to get into an economic rhythm that day and just keep rolling makes perfect sense. Crazy to think that he was able to run an identical time finishing a laboured-looking third on Saturday as when he looked like the second coming on Boxing Day 09.. |
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The times are misleading, they went so fast early in 2009 that they were tiring by then end, Kauto included. Though he was in splendid isolation at the time.
Also Ruby said that the ground this year looked better than it was in 09. He said that in commentary. |
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They are surprising Led on Bit - i do (and I am not saying you do either) think times are always significant in NH racing, but they are surprising.
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mmm, see what you are saying but how much better was it? There couldn't have been much in it and my point was he still ran the race in the same time. It would be interesting to see the two races in split screen and see how quickly he covered the home straight this time compared to 09. After that second-last, he was picking up again though not as well as Riverside Theatre. Just adding another piece of intrigue to the mix. One thing that is without question after Saturday is his courage and how thoroughly genuine he is, that's the thing I took away with me..
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