I suppose you have to factor in that blunder at the 2nd last too.

But the time in 09 looks slow because they went so fast early on that they were all tired at the end. Also the official going is also misleading. In 09 Kauto was 8.2s quicker than Long Run was in the Feltham and Kauto was carrying 10lbs more.

I think if it was any other horse people would put a line through the run, given he looked out of sorts from the start and the trainer said he bled and had an infection in the days following the race.

But as Jamie Lynch of Timeform says "there's no room for forgiveness where Kauto is concerned"

Also I'm pretty sure that huge blunder at the 8th in the Gold Cup was more a factor in his run that day than any form of decline.

I agree Resnar  - i've wanted to see him with his hooves up resting, parading before me in March, not wanting to watch him running having deteriorated (and the evidence of his last 3 runs does still make me feel that he may have, on balance) but the 2 excuses could well explain Saturday - if i was connected with the horse, given these excuses, I would certainly be giving him another chance. As I've said elsewhere, if he did do a Mill House, I would be the first to cheer.

The King George and Gold Cup are evidence he is in decline for me- its up to others to make their own mind up. Based on his jumping and the way he traveled, he's just not the horse he once was imo. Still a good one, sure but at the age of 11 who'd expect him to be repeating his youthful form (his unbeaten Order of Merit season was 06/07!)..

Led on bit - the sectional times of the two races are interesting. I don't know whether this helps in relation to what you were asking, but my timing of the two races (2009 and 2010 KG) showed this. Usual caveats about possible changes in course layout apply, but on my reading they reached the seventh fence on Saturday 4 seconds slower than they did in 2009 when Ollie Magern and Nacarat went off so fast in front. It wasn't until three out that the times taken in the two races became the same. There appears to have been a significant injection of pace from around the 13th fence on Saturday. They came home from that point 5 seconds faster than they did in the 2009 race.

The faster early pace in 2009 on ground that seemed to be riding reasonably close to what it was on Saturday, arguably, made the race more of a stamina test and very much played to the advantage of Kauto's high cruising speed. The faster early pace in 2009 also made the race more of a test of the ability of the less experienced horses to get into a good jumping rhythm. By contrast, the race on Saturday featured a faster finish over the final three fences and, in some ways, turned into more of a speed test than was the case in the 2009 renewal. Long Run's suspect jumping wasn't put under as much early pressure as it might have been had the early pace been as fast as it was in 2009. The jockey was able to get Long Run settled and into a nice jumping rhythm (incidentally, I thought Long Run was fantastic and full credit to his jockey also).

I tend to think with NH horses, when age-related deterioration sets in, it often shows first in some loss of timing in the jumping and also the edge starts to go from their acceleration or tactical speed. As far as I  understand, the deterioration initially is not so noticeable in terms of their stamina, so they can still last home well enough in competitive races over distances they are use to running.  Only at a later stage in their age-related deterioration are you likely to see them  start to become short runners, struggling to last home.

It wouldn't be surprising if, at 11, Kauto has lost some of his tactical speed and it might not be quite so easy for him always to access that fantastic timing and 'ping' in his jumping that he showed when he was younger.

I think the infection was probably the main factor explaining why he didn't travel with the same sparkle on Saturday that he showed when winning the KG a year earlier; but I suspect also that in the final stages of the race he was struggling to live with Long Run's sheer pace and exuberant jumping in what by that stage had become a fair old speed test. Some of the reason why he was struggling you could put down to the moderate early pace which wouldn't have been ideal for Kauto; some of it was no doubt bound up with the effects of the infection and then the subsequent bleeding which would have made it very difficult for the horse in the closing stages (assuming the 'bursting' occurred when he hit the second last fence); and some of it I have kind of convinced myself was down to Kauto's acceleration not being quite as sharp as it once was - there are a few signs from his last three races, imo, that he is a bit more vulnerable to getting outpaced momentarily than was once the case - he just gave a few lengths away by being a little slow to respond at times when the pace quickened, including a couple of occasions as the front horses quickened coming off the turns.

I liked that piece from the guy at Timeform though who warned us all against 'premature denunciation' in relation to Kauto. It would be interesting to know if he has whacked a good wedge on Kauto for the GC now at 10/1!

Still think these 3 over the Gold Cup trip are better than the rest.

I would like to add a bit to the question of ground conditions and race times of the last two runnings.

If you look at where they start the 2009 race, all the horses are on top of the actual line, whereas this year (2011!!) they are some way off the tape which would add up to 2 seconds onto Long Run's official winning time. This is yet another reason why final race times for comparison purposes (even on the same day) can be misleading.

I have timed the victories of KS and LR from the first fence to the winning line, plotting their respective times at each obstacle. If you assume the same ground conditions for the two races, LR wins by over 20 lengths, with KS being a maximum of 5 lengths in front early on. So using the same ground (and course layout scenario) LR is 20lb better than Kauto's 36L thrashing of the 2009 field and is officially the new Arkle - I don't think so.

The ground (and/or course layout) have therefore made conditions faster in 2011. From what I could see it looked pretty much the same track formation (certainly the fences were in the same place) so it is logical that the ground was quite a bit faster this year than in December 2009.

I  said that about a month ago in the king george thread on antepost forum. We had a good discussion about how kauto was to be beat at kempton.

He was outpaced down the back at down royal too.

The point roger is he gets far too much abuse and derision when he loses. No horse has received as much abuse and negative reaction  after a loss than him.

I've counted 4 times he's been written off and told to retire. Not once has he been beaten where people put a line through it. It doesn't happen, you get eulogies after every defeat.

There is no forgiveness where he is concerned. People expect impressive  wins every time he runs. The doom sayers will get it right eventually. But it is their eagerness for that day that irks me.

Now PN thinks stamina is his forte, I wonder whether they will think seriously about the Whitbread? They have been itching to run him in this for a couple of years and judging by the Hennessy talk earlier this season they appear keen to go for a big handicap. He'll get all the time in the world to get into his natural rhythm around there on likely good ground. Trouble with that is, if he doesn't stay the trip he's going to finish very tired..

Yes, Zilcal, that was my impression and would be something to explore in trying to make sense of the differences in margin over standard times for the respective races on the card.

Good post, Roger. Plenty of posters at least who genuinely want to search around in the 'middle' to find the truth, or something they can believe makes sense when trying to understand these complicated beasties who run with our hard earned on their back.

Damn you, you swine - Outed!

I was aiming for Joe Strummer but think I've ended up more Hilaire Belloc!

I am not sure the over-examination of Kauto is unique to him - I think it is a tendency that we see all too commonly, and Best Mate received an awful lot of vitriol.

RTB, I misread the post and thought it was from CV

Not quite sure where I'd place you in the pantheon of poets - perhaps we'll get some suggestions?

Steeple.

Start at Pam Ayres and keep going down 'til you hit permafrost!

Steeple! Magnificent!

aka

Apologies for the delay. Yes I do think there was a big difference in the going (or whatever else can influence the times): my figures for the chase track suggest the ground was almost 2 seconds per mile faster this year.

As Zilzal correctly points out, the hurdle course looks (and generally does) ride ride more slowly. I make the hurdle course around 1 second per mile faster in 2011.

I use a combination of a slightly modified Mordin technique and my own which compares sectional times at various points of a race.

Since the course changed at Kempton, the RP standard times initially looked very strange, with the 2m hurdle and 2m chase standards being too close together to suggest either they were right (or the actual distances were). They have since reduced the 2m hurdle standard by 7 seconds (I think) but having spent hours trying to work around these, I eventually "invented" my own standards.

This year, allowing for class and race distance, the four chase adjustments were -1.2(16), +0.6(20.5), +1(24) & 0.8(24): I decided upon 0.8.

In 2009, the numbers were -0.9(24), -1.2(24) & -1.3(20.5), I used -1.1 as the adjustment.

Steeple, brilliant.

The Bard of Betfair - brilliant stuff, Steeple. Might even raise you a few pounds above Pam Ayres.

The Sawyer - thanks for getting back to me on those points. It is very helpful information. The better ground, allied to the slightly more restrained early pace, helps put in context why they were able to got home in the latter stages in what seemed a comparatively quick time.

Led on bit - I suppose he would be less likely to get outpaced in a race like the Hennessy, but on the other side of the coin that is often seen very much as a race for younger legs, particularly where a lot of weight has to be conceded to the less experienced horses. I suppose if he did run well in the GC, they would have to give consideration to aiming him again at the KG in December, given the attraction of going for a fifth win. But that is not going to be an easy decision to make, particularly now the trainer has acknowledged the KG may be too much of a speed test for Kauto at this stage in his career.