Kauto 'had a small bleed after the race. Straight for the GC now'

Couldn't the horse simply have a bad day? He's not a machine. Also Nicholls stable form could well be a factor, I've never seen him in worse form.

Steeple has had many cases against Kauto over the years. All proven wrong too

If the horse was regressing, connections would be the first to say that in an effort to defend the horses form. Instead they are bullish.

He is some serious e/w value, and is also a great trading opportunity.

I think the Down Royal run is difficult to judge as neither China Rock or Sizing Europe have been out since. What you can say is he won which is a positive but again he did appear outpaced and not to travel as smoothly as he can. As much as I want to believe he can still win a GC the evidence to me is more toward regression than one bad run

Fair enough CVB & Steeple (and everyone else), just canvassing and interesting to hear the variety of views.

given his last 4 runs at Kempton,it can be argued reasonably that he has regressed,given that was a lot worse than any of the other runs.We are allowed to form our opinions,and mine is that if his reported bloody nose is not the cause of that performance,then he has regressed.
As for the Gold Cup run,if a horse aint going well at the 8th fence then he should not be in the race,the fact he was going ok at that stage tells us nothing.It can be argued though that Saturday could well have taught us something.As always the next race will tell us more.

in last seasons gold cup, kauto was on the bunny and absolutely bouncing until the blunder

but i have said for 6 months that i would be amazed if he can come out for a 7th season of chasing and be anywhere near as good as he was

his run in down royal to my eye was without his normal zest. yes i know pfn always holds plenty back, but this was not the kauto we have seen down the years
and his run in the george was there for everyone to see. that time has caught up with this fella.

straight after the race connections and people on here admitted to the age factor, but now this bleed has offered a tiny light of hope he can bounce back.

i think he deserves a swan song at chelt, but he has little chance of placing imo

As for the Gold Cup run,if a horse aint going well at the 8th fence then he should not be in the race

Fair point Budd but it applies both ways and to me the horse was never travelling with any zest on Saturday, neither at the 8th or anywhere else.

yeh,thats fair as well steeple,but was he really that bad on Saturday on the 1st circuit?? watched it again today,thought he was fairly comfortable for a fair way.

Looked to me that he just could not go with Long Run when it mattered,for whatever reason.Did not see a sign of that happening before then.

quote from trainer (though, tbf, he always finds an excuse!)

"Yesterday, was undoubtedly a big disappointment. He was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency, but it wasn't as if he ran a poor race. Without his blunder at the second last, he probably would have been a fair second to a very good horse.

"But that clearly wasn't his best form"

no it was'nt,and that could be cos he aint as good now.

If as they say he was never travelling or jumping with any real fluency,then they have to look at why,and if it aint the reported bl00dy nose,then they have a problem with him,with his next run being the Gold Cup.

My impression during the first part of the race was that he was not travelling with his usual bounce. He jumped 9 really well but more severe alarm bells were evident as they went out past the winning post and he was being pushed (or not travelling kindly, his trademark) into 10 and 11 - he was probably beaten at that point.

The most alarming thing thats been said is that they are looking forward to trying to win a third JN.Wine Champion Chase??? It's almost as though they are in denial and feel that they need to plan further ahead than the GC to show that he hasn't regressed. Do they really hold the Down Royal race in that high esteem

Seems such a mystery how you get a horse keen to race and settled into a good rhythm on the race track. If it were an easy puzzle for trainers and jockeys to solve, the performance record of each horse would show far greater consistency than is the case in reality.

There have been three or four occasions in Kauto's career when he hasn't travelled well and didn't attack his fences in quite the way he normally does. There probably isn't a single explanation that would account for those below par runs. On Saturday, it was a shame they didn't go faster in the early stages, as that I think would have provided a better indication of just where we are with Kauto at this stage in his career. The best test of when a horse has regressed is how well they cope in races where the pace is very demanding from the start - if they have regressed, they usually run out of puff in such races just as the others are starting to race for home (I think we saw that, for example, with Hardy Eustace in his final run in the CH; he went well off a fast early pace for two thirds of the way and then just couldn't keep the gallop up any more as they were turning for home and he was challenged for the lead).

I don't think there was any clear evidence on Saturday that Kauto ran out of puff. He just never seemed to get into a good rhythm or attack his fences with the verve he normally does. At the point in the race at which you might have expected him to be fading if he had regressed significantly, he was actually starting to mount a fairly determined  challenge to LR after three out, only then to put in a very poorly coordinated jump at the second last, which effectively ended his chances of finishing second.

Kauto did seem a bit keen in the early stages on Saturday. It could be that he was seeing too much daylight (McCoy rode him a touch more prominently than Walsh possibly would have) or that the relatively moderate early pace was unsettling the horse. Equally, it is often said that keenness can be a sign of a horse not feeling physically right and up to the task of racing. All-in-all, very hard to know what to make of Kauto's run, but while the horse can still make and withstand challenges in the final stages of races, as he did in reasonably good company at Down Royal, it is probably too soon to be saying he has regressed significantly.

I agree that the most likely expl;anation is that the horse is simpy regressing, something which he MUST do eventually. In fact, Kauto is starting to remind me a bit of Moscow Flyer. Moscow was brilliant in the 04/05 season. He produced a fantastic performance at Aintree and then went to Punchestown where he started at 1 – 4 and tried to demolish the last fence before going under by a nosrtil hair to Rathgar Beau. Next season he was still very high-class, but the magic was gone. There are parallels there with Kauto’s brilliant performance at Kemption in 09 followed by shuddering errors at Cheltenham.

Having said that, I wouldn’t underestimate the McCoy factor. That’s not to criticize the great man, but Kauto is clearly a tricky ride. After 20 attempts, Ruby had it off Pat, but it was a big ask for McCoy to do the business first time up. The horse seemed to run with the choke out most of the way, and he lost serious ground on the outer when they made the turn past the stand to go out on the second circuit.

Let's face it everyone on here with half a brain has expected this to happen. His run at Down Royal although as some will say was normal for a first run was possibly a bit worse than first expected. I don't think the horses he beat that day were any good at all and if there was a Pandorama in there he would have got beat. I love Kauto and he has been great over the years but you can't expect himself and Denman to keep going back to the drawing board after dissapointing runs and pull out huge runs after. It just doesn't happen forever. Kauto's strength has always been his cruising speed and acceleration and if he has lost that then he's not winning the Gold Cup. As for Clive Smith criticizing McCoy's style I think that is very babyish and if he knows anything about racing he must feel slightly embarrassed about his comments. I went to see Kauto at Kempton and although the commentator didn't seem to you knew Kauto wasn't going very well after the first circuit. I just hope Kauto and Denman go out on a high whenever they retire but that will be up to the owners I guess. I just hope they look outside the box a bit. Bleeding for a first time isn't a freak accident. It's probably a sign.

yeah the down royal race has baffled me a little aswell. If he does end up there and wins easily, then it would end up being another King George :S

Sizing Europe and China Rock are very good horses and fit ones at that. China Rock is going to surprise a fair few of you in the gold cup.

He might or might not be 'regressing', but the KG performance cannot be cited as evidence of this imo.  Never travelling, bled, yard badly out of form.  Claiming regression based on this would not stand up in court!

I think people often go OTT regards KS when he is beaten. No doubt Ruby suits him better, Nicholls runners under a cloud, ground too sticky & several bad blunders. When he clouted the 2nd last he was starting to stay on & would have shook up the winner IMO & still finished 3rd with all this against him. He is all class & ggod ground, Ruby on board & PN runners in form KS can win the GC for the 3rd time, albeit he is undoubtedly on the wane.

Can't wait to be at Chelters with my 12/1 bet [;)]

is their enough evidence for a case though Steeple? i think his last 2 runs when it mattered shows that their is. his next run is the biggie,and a massive one for kauto.

I guess you have to assume he is regressing at the age he is. The issue is more how far has he regressed. As Steeple suggests, you would be hard pressed to provide firm evidence at this stage that the horse has deteriorated significantly.

Haventaclue referred to "still being high class but the magic has gone" and that seemed to me a good way of expressing where we may now be with Kauto. But that is more an assumption I am making about the horse, rather than something I would feel happy making a case for on the basis of the evidence so far from his recent runs.

I don't think anyone has mentioned Monet's Garden in connection with this topic. He may be more the exception than the rule for older race horses, but his final two seasons were a real swansong. There were times over the last three years when I felt he wasn't quite hitting the high notes in his races and it was probably time for an honourable retirement. But then he would come out again, still competing at quite a high level, and look almost as good as he was in his prime. What a fantastic performance he put up in his last race, not least because he still appeared so keen to compete and retained enough ability to back that up.

You have to be as  careful about writing them off prematurely as you do about keeping them going longer than can be defended. Not an easy place to be for the trainer and connections.

i felt the way he was ridden on saturday got him beat. why track nacarat this time when the year before he was held up off the pace and came through to win 30+ lengths. chasing the pace was to me the obvious reason he didnt travel or jump as well, mccoy had him racing from the start which meant he couldnt settle and in turn took toll on his jumping. what the hell was mccoy thinking? hasnt he seen the other 4 king george wins? im sure they didnt train him to be ridden like that.

given good ground and ruby on board i think he is a place certainty in the gold cup.

'Regression' is bandied about as a buzz word in racing these days, especially on this forum.  From what I can find in definitions, the most broadly accepted interpretation is 'to return to a former state'.  Some describe it as a former less developed or less perfect state, but in strictest terms I don't think it's accurate when describing the potential decline of a racehorse.  KS, and others, might well be in decline, but 'regression' could suggest a return to his best as much as to his worst.  Anyway, pedantic rant over.

Sometimes I post on here on the simple interpretation of what I've seen, always with the caveat that it is simply personal opinion; for example I might see a young horse who I think could turn out to be top class.  I have no evidence whatsoever that this prediction will prove correct, I'm just voicing my opinion based on intuition and experience as much as anything else.

I prefer to post when I have evidence to back up my opinion.  Sometimes I'm spectacularly wrong (I thought KS could not win a 2nd Gold Cup as it had been almost three years since he had won left handed and he had a startling winning record going right-handed), I was wrong, but at least there was plenty of evidence to support my theory.

I posted early last season that Voy Por Ustedes had become a most unreliable jumper bringing fire and brimstone on my head until people actually started looking properly at his recent form rather than at the jumper he used to be.

The point is, to my mind at least, for all you 'regression' theorists, are you seriously citing the KG run as evidence?  The jury is out on the Down Royal form as Sizing Europe and China Rock (2nd and 3rd) have not been seen since.  The RP summary as follows:  Tracked leader in 2nd, close up 5 out, pushed along in 2nd approaching 3 out, led 3 out, ridden before next, kept on strongly from last

Prior to this is his Gold Cup run.  How many horses could have got back into contention in a field of such quality after that blunder at the eighth?

What I believe might have set him back is the effect on his confidence of the awful fall he took at Cheltenham.  I'd be more open to that than an age-based 'regression' theory. 

Maybe I saw Saturday's race differently from the 'regressioners', but, I'd have laid him after jumping the third - he simply looked nothing like his normal self.  If he was in decline, he would at least have run most of his race before dropping away as the effects of age wearied him at the business end.  Instead, his class and courage kept him battling on till that blunder put an end to any chance. This despite bleeding and a yard in very poor form (an extremely rare occurrence for Nicholls).

In summary, neither the Gold Cup nor the Down Royal run provide evidence of decline and the KG certainly does not imo.  Again, I am not saying the horse is not in decline, only that there is no worthwhile evidence for it.

At the end of the day Kauto has now failed to do himself justice in his last 2 runs in a big race,that is fact.He has run 4 impressive races in the King George and this year ran badly,that also is fact.
We can try and figure out why till the cows come home,but really only his next race can tell us at what level he is now imo.Thats why its imo a massive race for the horse,another failure will see him retired i think,but if he proves he has just had a blip and comes back and performs as he can,then thats a different story.
Wait till March is what i shall do.

I believe Bud to be right on this matter, but I would just say that since his King George romp last yr he has not run to that level of form since - so it is not based on 1 run, but 3. Yes, there may have been excuses, but excuses (legitimate or otherwise) for 3 subsequent moderate runs could be interpreted as simply covering up a trend. I get the feeling that there are too many excuses being used here, and they are masking the fact of deterioration (is that a better word than regresion, Steeple? [;)]).

I sincerely hope I am wrong, and I have written the horse off prematurely before - initially at Aintree on his come-back run the yr after his first gold cup win, then after his Gold Cup defeat by Denman, then when he was beaten at Aintree by the Pipe horse, then last yr after his Gold Cup fall. I believe I was wrong each time except the last - as Bud says, however, whilst the evidence is inconclusive, only time will tell. He could, like Mill House, come back and bring the house down. I would love it if he did. I actually almost feel disrespectful to the great horse, this level of analysis.

Even though this is Nicholls' worst run of form for a while, his horses have often gone into King Georg day in slightly worse form than ealy/late autumn before. Someone will provide stats showing otherwise I'm sure, but i have once or twice lauded Kauto's King George performance with the rider 'from a stable out of form', and only half in jest. I said on the forum elsewhere at the start of January that this drop in Nicholls' form (albeit not to this extent) is in fact annual. He's on record as saying that he (learnt from Barron, his mentor, to) trains them hard till the turn of the yr, then let them down and build them up again from the NY towards the festivals.

The drop in his level of form has often coincided with Christmas/New Yr, the administration of flu-jabs, and letting them down to build back up again.

Btw, to Barney, I believe PFN had told Nicholls to ride Kauto prominently, as he had been at Down Royal (to a greater or lesser extent). I could be wrong, but i am certain I have read this in the fall out since the race. More than 1 poster on here has said that the horse is now a slower stayer - riding him for a turn of foot would nto be right on a stayer. I actually believe him to be a speed horse, one who has fractionally deteriorated from a sublime height, and one who does not really act at his very best any more on quite testing ground.

* - PFN had told AP...

RC, regarding the stable form for the KG (albeit, late this year), a paste from my earlier post quoting the RP:


It seems probable that he´s now past his best, but it needs pointing out that some of his trainer´s horses are not running as well as usual, and that may have been a contributory factor. For example, when Kauto Star won the race in December 2009, Paul Nicholls had a 21% strike-rate for the month. In 08 he was at 23% for the month, 07 he was 26%, and 06 he was 18%. This time, though, Nicholls started the day 4-35 in January, a strike-rate of only 11%, and finished the afternoon 4-43 after a further eight losers. It´s asking a lot of Kauto Star to ever recapture his greatness, but it wouldn´t surprise if he´s still capable of better when his yard inevitably returns to top form. He´s out to 12-1 for the Gold Cup.

As for you 'regressioners', make up your mind [;)]: you can't say "he's in decline but I'll wait and see his next run before declaring for sure". You either believe he is or he isn't - we don't have the luxury of awaiting next runs!

My understanding of the word 'regression' is the opposite of 'progression'.
To take a step backwards, instead of taking a step forwards.
To me the word is thoroughly appropriate in such circumstances. KS in my mind is taking backward steps; we have seen the best of him. The question is, does he need to be at HIS best to compete with everyone elses best?

I think there are too many younger progressive horses waiting in the wings. Long Run, Diamond Harry, Pandorama and Weird Al to name but four. For me Pandorama is the potential superstar amongst the current crop and I dont think he needs the very soft ground most people presume he does!

Just my opinion!

Hi Steeple. You are right. Do we believe he is, or isn't? I've said everywhere that I believe he is. However, i'm prepared to accept I could be wrong, and the next run will tell us more, or the run after, but I would be very surprised if he hadn't declined and wasn't in decline.

Btw, an interesting comparison would be to examine Nicholls month s/r when the horse has won the King George before, and look at his s/r in the month prior.

Do we know whether, for example, PFN had a better s/r in Nov 08 compared to his 23% s/r in Dec 08; in Nov 07 compared to his Dec 07 s/r of 26%; and in Nov 06 compared to his Dec 06 s/r of 18%. I do not know about last yr, when they did not appear 'right' for much of the autmn (from memory) - were they better in Nov 09 than Dec 09?

My point being that if his s/t has traditionally dipped in the month of the KG compared to the prior month, it may not pay to make too much of that excuse this time (except this time his s/r had dipped to a low I do not recall he has ever before experienced).

I think that the horse deserves one more go at the GC but no matter how he runs in the race surely that should be it, talk of him running at Down Royal next season is shocking imo the horse deserves a long and happy retirement, why keep him in training when age is clearly catching him up.

Steeple,what iam saying is i dont know if he is in decline,so will wait until next time he runs and see how he does then,thats my choice.I am also saying their is sufficient evidence to think he may be,but it aint conclusive,thats why i will wait before a definite judgement.
In the meantime i will have a good think about whether to take the odds now available,cos if its down to trainer form,bl00dy nose,then he is value.
Whats wrong with that mate??

Like R Carver I believe Kauto to be in decline, but would happily be proved wrong.
One thing I don't buy into though is that he's now a slower stamina horse - IMO that basically means he can't do what he used to and he isn't as good/fast as he used to be.
The fact he's still able to compete at the highest level is a measure of how good he was. But the slower stamina horse - thats just dressing things up. And while he can compete, he's not the boss anymore, and is "only" able to compete which suggests decline to me.

Nothing wrong with it Budd - you've covered all the bases.  You'd make an excellent politician!

ha ha,i just dont know steeple,simple as that.
My gut feeling is he aint gonna win a GC again,or a KG,but i may be wrong and if the price is tempting on the day i may well play,but pretty sure i wont be antepost on him.

Steeple wrote: If he was in decline, he would at least have run most of his race before dropping away as the effects of age wearied him at the business end.  Instead, his class and courage kept him battling on till that blunder put an end to any chance. This despite bleeding and a yard in very poor form (an extremely rare occurrence for Nicholls).

I think the most reliable indicator of when a good horse has declined to the point where retirement really should beckon is, as Steeple notes, when there is clear evidence they can no longer make and withstand challenges effectively in the final stages of true run races in good company. I don't see the evidence that we have reached that point yet with Kauto. However, I think there may be a few signs appearing that his tactical speed and timing are not quite as sharp as they were. That in itself wouldn't necessarily stop him from running well again in top company in a competitive field, but it does lessen the chances of him winning another top prize by a fair degree, I would say, given that some quality appears to be emerging now among the younger challengers and also paying respect to the quality of the established opposition in the form of Denman and Imperial Commander.

Odd word 'regression', indeed. I see that to regress can also mean "a series of statements in which the same arguments are constantly repeated and no conclusion can be reached". Makes us all 'regressionists', I guess, if you think about the long-running debates we've had on the forum down the years, not least about Kauto and Denman.

Nicholls just tweeted

K Star blood tests just back, shows signs is inflammation and  infection. Weeks of antibiotics and easy few days.

Some effort to come 3rd in the king george when sick.

I've dived in for 2pt e/w at 10/1 for the gold cup.

Brought tears to my eyes when I think back to him mounting a challenge as he rounded the home turn, sick with bleeding lungs he gave his all until he  hit the second last.

True utter legend. I backed him for the gold cup at 10/1 there.

Best ever for me by an immeasurable distance.

What a horse.

My gut feeling is he aint gonna win a GC again,or a KG,but i may be wrong and if the price is tempting on the day i may well play,but pretty sure i wont be antepost on him.

This is the key point - the key point really in any punting debate. Not do you think he will win, but at what odds does he become a backable proposition.

Okay, I understand that with KS and other superstars who have an emotional (for want of a better word) following as well as a punting following, it IS all about him winning another GC or King George, but for everyone else it's about his price.

It always makes me laugh when someone comes on and goes 'so-and-so has no chance' because so-and-so invariably does have a chance - that's what it's odds are.

FWIW if Kauto is 12/1 on the day I'll be a backer.

Kauto will be shorter then 10/1 on the day meaning you can lay some of the stake back. Value in antepost, also serious ew value at 10/1.

That  prices him at a 9% chance of winning and a 28.5% chance of placing.

In my opinion, after the blood tests he has a better chance than that.

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R Carver
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When: 16 Jan 11 20:32
So Brooksie you are usuing the infected foot excuse for his defeat at the hands of Denman, in the most savage and stamina sapping Gold Cup in recent yrs? Interesting that, because PFN doesn't even use that. IMO that is pure rubbish. I think you are the ony person using that excuse.

No i have been also, ever since that race in 08, maybe it the reason PN has not used that as the excuse because the fact that race was being billed as the best ever, with massive media coverage and although kauto was not at his best, he was fit and ready to race and a place was at best what Nichols secretly was hoping for? That is my opinion anyways. Also to not jump well, and to decrease a deficit of upwards of 20lengths down to just 7 lengths at the line is some performance in my book!

I have only read the first page of this thread having come onto it late, can't be bothered to read the rest to be honest as it is about the same thing.

Yeah these blood tests are very interesting aren't they. I was inclined to believe he maybe now too old and getting on etc etc but now this puts a new light to the debate. A gold cup run on proper good ground is what he wants, and should he get it will be 5/1 on the day imo! At 10/1 e/way is massive imo! I love this horse, owes no one nothing! I have a feeling that he could bow out just like Istabraq did, there is a chance of that happening.

Thik i will pass on current odds,no telling how he will be after this setback,and even if he will turn up!! will look on the day if he is there,no worries about taking shorter odds for a definite run.Horse is sick at the moment.

Can anyone who knows anything about horses comment on whether the infection and the bleed could be linked or two separate ailments?

The inflammation suggests it may have caused the bleeding. The infection probably caused the inflammation. He has never bled before, and he has never been sick after a race before so the two could well be linked. Though the 2nd last fence may have caused the bleeding, but he's had worse before and not bled.

Add this info to the storey of the race where he didn't look right from the start and you would gave a hard time proving any  regression theory.

Well CVB i've tried a few times above! This development, it is reasonable to say, probably goes towards explaining his (relatvely) poor run LTO. The horse cannot talk, so it is pure conjecture, but I would be surprised if a horse could run to his best with a bleed amd when sick.

http://www.buzzle.com/articles/178723.html

We're into realms of vetinary knowledge here but I guess that a hard-run Gold Cup on undulating ground in 8 weeks time is not the best scenario for a known, um, 'bleeder'.

Yes, CV, I think you are right to surmise a connection between the virus and the bleeding. A horse less brave and honest might  have made less effort under the circumstances and thereby the risk of bleeding when the pressure was on would have been less.

It will be interesting to see how far the GC price contracts now this news is available.

* infection, sorry.

A known bleeder haha, nonsense, the first time he's bled in his career when he had an infection and hit a fence hard.

He's hardly captain cee bee now.

http://bit.ly/ewONcP.

CV I dunno how you can argue with the fact he bled on Saturday, therefore he is a known bleeder QED

Though in fairness it is horses that are known regularly to bleed from the lungs through the nostrils that are referred to as 'bleeders'. No reason to think yet it is a chronic condition with Kauto, though from what I understand, once the bleeding is sufficiently acute to show through the nostrils, it makes them more susceptible to future episodes of bleeding under the strain of racing. And, of course, there is greater susceptibility to bleeding among older horses.

The added strain of an infection/inflammation presumably could have been a contributory factor in the bleeding through the nostrils, through its impact on blood pressure and the horse's breathing. Though possibly the physical impact and disruption to breathing from hitting the second last fence was the immediate cause of the rupturing, as the trainer suggested.

The bleeding could have easily been from either. An impact on the chest could have traumatised lung tissue and the inflammation caused by an infection could have led to minor bleeds within the deeper tissues. Horses that bleed usually do so during the exertion of the race and blood is seen at the nostrils at the time. Did I read that KS had blod at his nostrils only when he put his head down to drink some time after? Not sure of the significance there but slightly odd.

My feeling is the resp inf will clear up quickly after a short course of antibiotic and the blood was most likely due to the second last fence impact. The horse not travelling well during the race (by his normal standards) was most likely dt the resp inf.

Is he still the same horse? I still think he's had his day, but all of the above add more intrigue to this years race and 10-1 is certainly tempting EW!

And you regressionists hopefully will not mind me saying that this reinforces my view that the KG needs to be completely ignored

I won't ignore the fact Long Run loves the track.

Have to say, there have been some amazing posts on here, particularly from Aka whose "rhythm theory" is a revelation. I for one do believe he is in decline now and his courage has meant he was able to get back into the Gold Cup and King George when all appeared lost. I also totally agree with the good ground factor, he has always been so much better on it and it is becoming crucial these days. However, what I found interesting are the times he has run to in the last five King Georges. His winning times are:
6.05.70 gd/sf
6.09.40 gd/sf
5.57.40 gd
6.07.10 gd/sf
This year, and this is hard to believe (as the ground was for me a shade softer than 2009), he ran the same time (about 6:07) as he had when recording his huge mid-190s figure the last time he was here despite clouting the second-last this time. How do we make sense of that? In my opinion, that 2009 KG performance was as a result of his opponents going a mad pace and falling into a hole and the idea put forward by Aka that he was able to get into an economic rhythm that day and just keep rolling makes perfect sense. Crazy to think that he was able to run an identical time finishing a laboured-looking third on Saturday as when he looked like the second coming on Boxing Day 09..

The times are misleading, they went so fast early in 2009 that they were tiring by then end, Kauto included. Though he was in splendid isolation at the time.

Also Ruby said that the ground this year looked better than it was in 09. He said that in commentary.

They are surprising Led on Bit - i do (and I am not saying you do either) think times are always significant in NH racing, but they are surprising.

mmm, see what you are saying but how much better was it? There couldn't have been much in it and my point was he still ran the race in the same time. It would be interesting to see the two races in split screen and see how quickly he covered the home straight this time compared to 09. After that second-last, he was picking up again though not as well as Riverside Theatre. Just adding another piece of intrigue to the mix. One thing that is without question after Saturday is his courage and how thoroughly genuine he is, that's the thing I took away with me..

I suppose you have to factor in that blunder at the 2nd last too.

But the time in 09 looks slow because they went so fast early on that they were all tired at the end. Also the official going is also misleading. In 09 Kauto was 8.2s quicker than Long Run was in the Feltham and Kauto was carrying 10lbs more.

I think if it was any other horse people would put a line through the run, given he looked out of sorts from the start and the trainer said he bled and had an infection in the days following the race.

But as Jamie Lynch of Timeform says "there's no room for forgiveness where Kauto is concerned"

I for one do believe he is in decline now and his courage has meant he was able to get back into the Gold Cup and King George when all appeared lost

Forgive my continued frustration, but why do you cite the King George as evidence of his decline when it is now clear he was a sick horse?

As to time comparisons on different going, they are without value. Even based on the same going description they are of very questionable value because of the range allowed within 'good'  good to soft' etc.  Also, the way a race is run, even on identical going, blows the credence of time comparisons imo.

Also I'm pretty sure that huge blunder at the 8th in the Gold Cup was more a factor in his run that day than any form of decline.

As one of the first to wish Kauto to retire after the KG, I'm happy to hold my hands up and say he does deserve to take his chance in the GC.
I think the bleeding & infection which have come to light are valid excuses as to why he was not at his best in the KG.

My view was based on concern for the horse - who's jumping under pressure does worry me.

I still believe in all likelihood he is not as good as he was (not just based on the KG), but because of the ailments (which could also be signs of age catching up with him) he does deserve the chance to run in the GC

I agree Resnar  - i've wanted to see him with his hooves up resting, parading before me in March, not wanting to watch him running having deteriorated (and the evidence of his last 3 runs does still make me feel that he may have, on balance) but the 2 excuses could well explain Saturday - if i was connected with the horse, given these excuses, I would certainly be giving him another chance. As I've said elsewhere, if he did do a Mill House, I would be the first to cheer.

The King George and Gold Cup are evidence he is in decline for me- its up to others to make their own mind up. Based on his jumping and the way he traveled, he's just not the horse he once was imo. Still a good one, sure but at the age of 11 who'd expect him to be repeating his youthful form (his unbeaten Order of Merit season was 06/07!)..

The King George and Gold Cup are evidence he is in decline for me- its up to others to make their own mind up. Based on his jumping and the way he traveled, he's just not the horse he once was imo. Still a good one, sure but at the age of 11 who'd expect him to be repeating his youthful form (his unbeaten Order of Merit season was 06/07!)..

Woodworm - useful information, thanks. It is good to hear from someone with veterinary knowledge on this.

When a horse hits a fence hard at high racing speed, there must be quite a juddering impact internally,  with the organs at the back of the horse thrown forward and hitting against the rear of the lungs with some force. Presumably, that would be one of the main causes of 'bursting' in NH horses.

Led on bit - the sectional times of the two races are interesting. I don't know whether this helps in relation to what you were asking, but my timing of the two races (2009 and 2010 KG) showed this. Usual caveats about possible changes in course layout apply, but on my reading they reached the seventh fence on Saturday 4 seconds slower than they did in 2009 when Ollie Magern and Nacarat went off so fast in front. It wasn't until three out that the times taken in the two races became the same. There appears to have been a significant injection of pace from around the 13th fence on Saturday. They came home from that point 5 seconds faster than they did in the 2009 race.

The faster early pace in 2009 on ground that seemed to be riding reasonably close to what it was on Saturday, arguably, made the race more of a stamina test and very much played to the advantage of Kauto's high cruising speed. The faster early pace in 2009 also made the race more of a test of the ability of the less experienced horses to get into a good jumping rhythm. By contrast, the race on Saturday featured a faster finish over the final three fences and, in some ways, turned into more of a speed test than was the case in the 2009 renewal. Long Run's suspect jumping wasn't put under as much early pressure as it might have been had the early pace been as fast as it was in 2009. The jockey was able to get Long Run settled and into a nice jumping rhythm (incidentally, I thought Long Run was fantastic and full credit to his jockey also).

I tend to think with NH horses, when age-related deterioration sets in, it often shows first in some loss of timing in the jumping and also the edge starts to go from their acceleration or tactical speed. As far as I  understand, the deterioration initially is not so noticeable in terms of their stamina, so they can still last home well enough in competitive races over distances they are use to running.  Only at a later stage in their age-related deterioration are you likely to see them  start to become short runners, struggling to last home.

It wouldn't be surprising if, at 11, Kauto has lost some of his tactical speed and it might not be quite so easy for him always to access that fantastic timing and 'ping' in his jumping that he showed when he was younger.

I think the infection was probably the main factor explaining why he didn't travel with the same sparkle on Saturday that he showed when winning the KG a year earlier; but I suspect also that in the final stages of the race he was struggling to live with Long Run's sheer pace and exuberant jumping in what by that stage had become a fair old speed test. Some of the reason why he was struggling you could put down to the moderate early pace which wouldn't have been ideal for Kauto; some of it was no doubt bound up with the effects of the infection and then the subsequent bleeding which would have made it very difficult for the horse in the closing stages (assuming the 'bursting' occurred when he hit the second last fence); and some of it I have kind of convinced myself was down to Kauto's acceleration not being quite as sharp as it once was - there are a few signs from his last three races, imo, that he is a bit more vulnerable to getting outpaced momentarily than was once the case - he just gave a few lengths away by being a little slow to respond at times when the pace quickened, including a couple of occasions as the front horses quickened coming off the turns.

I liked that piece from the guy at Timeform though who warned us all against 'premature denunciation' in relation to Kauto. It would be interesting to know if he has whacked a good wedge on Kauto for the GC now at 10/1!

Yep,think we have to ignore the KG,horse deserves to be judged when all is well.
For me as far as Gold Cup is concerned,he is an e/w play on the day if the price allows.Cannot back him before as he is sick and its possible he wont get back to how he needs to be by then.
Cannot be a win bet for me,just think that IC is now a better horse,and Denman being campaigned differently with his GC winning jockey back will be IC's main danger.

Still think these 3 over the Gold Cup trip are better than the rest.

But as Jamie Lynch of Timeform says "there's no room for forgiveness where Kauto is concerned"

Eh?

He said that?

There's so much emotion invested in this horse that his supporters / scarf-wearers have a ready reason every time he doesn't win.

The state of the ground when KS loses is pored over in so much detail, you'd be forgiven for thinking you were listening to the bstard son of John Ketley and Alan Titchmarsh.

Then there's his 'rhythm' which has surpassed 'class' as the greatest example of nonspeak in racing. Then there's his jockey, his praparation, his trainer's form.

Up to last week everyone was quick to trot out that he'd never been beaten when he's stood up in a race. That goes down the pan and  it's 'ah but his jumping mistake (which he's always prone to) and his illness caused his defeat'.

I love the horse for the superstar he is, and if Long Run doesn't land me a huge punt I've had on him, then I'd love him to win the GC but I hate the scarves, the hype and the lack of respect his opposition receive when they race and when they beat him.

But 'no room for forgiveness'? He's given more chances than Pete Doherty!

I would like to add a bit to the question of ground conditions and race times of the last two runnings.

If you look at where they start the 2009 race, all the horses are on top of the actual line, whereas this year (2011!!) they are some way off the tape which would add up to 2 seconds onto Long Run's official winning time. This is yet another reason why final race times for comparison purposes (even on the same day) can be misleading.

I have timed the victories of KS and LR from the first fence to the winning line, plotting their respective times at each obstacle. If you assume the same ground conditions for the two races, LR wins by over 20 lengths, with KS being a maximum of 5 lengths in front early on. So using the same ground (and course layout scenario) LR is 20lb better than Kauto's 36L thrashing of the 2009 field and is officially the new Arkle - I don't think so.

The ground (and/or course layout) have therefore made conditions faster in 2011. From what I could see it looked pretty much the same track formation (certainly the fences were in the same place) so it is logical that the ground was quite a bit faster this year than in December 2009.

Despite having won the King George so impressively on four previous occasions, Nicholls claims Kempton is no longer Kauto Star's ideal track.

"He's better round Cheltenham, which is more of a galloping track and more of a staying track," he added.

"He's won two Gold Cups round Cheltenham and he only won the King George the year before by so far because they went too fast and he just outstayed them.

"He may have lost a little bit of speed, in which case Kempton won't suit him now."

From PN today. Should keep the debate boiling for a while longer.

I  said that about a month ago in the king george thread on antepost forum. We had a good discussion about how kauto was to be beat at kempton.

He was outpaced down the back at down royal too.

The Sawyer - very good points and a good way of illustrating why comparison of overall race times, especially between races on different days, can be misleading. Have you done any time analysis of the other races on the card? I wonder what they suggest about the ground conditions relative to 2009. I know comparison is made harder by the differences between the cards for the two meetings.
Ideally, you would want that additional evidence in order to support better the claim that the ground was riding quite a bit faster last Saturday. Otherwise you are more open to counter-claims that other differences in race conditions (i.e. apart from the possible difference in going) better explain some, or all, of your hypothetical 20 lengths victory.

The point roger is he gets far too much abuse and derision when he loses. No horse has received as much abuse and negative reaction  after a loss than him.

I've counted 4 times he's been written off and told to retire. Not once has he been beaten where people put a line through it. It doesn't happen, you get eulogies after every defeat.

There is no forgiveness where he is concerned. People expect impressive  wins every time he runs. The doom sayers will get it right eventually. But it is their eagerness for that day that irks me.

The Hurdle course looked a lot softer to me

Now PN thinks stamina is his forte, I wonder whether they will think seriously about the Whitbread? They have been itching to run him in this for a couple of years and judging by the Hennessy talk earlier this season they appear keen to go for a big handicap. He'll get all the time in the world to get into his natural rhythm around there on likely good ground. Trouble with that is, if he doesn't stay the trip he's going to finish very tired..

CV

I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle

His supporters think he's Pegasus, but meanwhile there are always nasty little sh1ts eager to put anything - man, horse,whatever - down. Each side only sees what they want to see.

For my part, I think it's ridiculous to want him to retire. Never mind his form this season (whether you buy into him regressing or not) absolutely entitles him to line up on GC day. Secondly, it will be a far more pleasant occasion than last year without the thoroughly objectionable hype surrounding Him and Denman (God I was so pleased when IC won last year). Finally of course, the poet in me would love him to run and win for the sheer emotional outbrst there would be if he could do it three times.

Yes, Zilcal, that was my impression and would be something to explore in trying to make sense of the differences in margin over standard times for the respective races on the card.

Good post, Roger. Plenty of posters at least who genuinely want to search around in the 'middle' to find the truth, or something they can believe makes sense when trying to understand these complicated beasties who run with our hard earned on their back.

CV "the poet in me"

John Cooper Clarke?

Damn you, you swine - Outed!

I was aiming for Joe Strummer but think I've ended up more Hilaire Belloc!

Spent a bit of time with a stopwatch looking at the last two King Georges and here is my amateur summation. Times are for Kauto only:

09 KG
to the 4th 1:16
to the 9th 2:45.5
to the 13th 4:29
to the 16th (3rd last) 5:28
to the line 6:07
covered the last 3 furlongs in 49.1, from the second last was 25.9

10 KG
to the 4th 1:17.5
to the 9th 2:44
to the 13th 4:26.5
to the 16th 5:25
to the line 6:07
covered the last 3 furlongs in 48.7, from the second last was 28.2

In 09 he was ridden quite far off the pace and therefore got into a nicer jumping rhythm imo. On Saturday, by the time he was jumping the last in the home straight first time round he had already covered the distance 2 1/2 seconds quicker than 09. No wonder he was being niggled at turning out for the final circuit. By the time he got to the third last, he was 3 seconds ahead of his 09 time. He was probably all out when he hit the second-last, out of his comfort zone whereas in 09 he was just allowed to cruise in the straight. What is surprising to me is that, despite that blunder, he covered the home straight quicker than he had in 09. If he hadn't made that mistake, I reckon he'd have been a respectable second clear of Riverside Theatre. What I'm starting to think based on the (rough) fractions is that he was ridden too prominently this time with connections thinking his best chance was to use his stamina to best effect. If he'd been dropped out three or four lengths and allowed to settle into a smooth rhythm he might have jumped better and who knows? He got caught up in a prolonged speed test and at his age it was just a bit too much. As for Cheltenham, I think he has to be dropped out and allowed time to get into it rather than being up there from the outset. His best performances have all been when he has been unhurried by the jockey (hence the great connection with Ruby with the clock in his head). No criticism of AP, he probably wouldn't have won anyway and I think they all thought riding him up with the pace would be best this time. He's probably a horse that takes a bit of knowing, what with his hanging left at Kempton. What a performance from Long Run though. His sectionals from the third last are sensational and it will be some horse who can get him beaten in this race from now on..

I am not sure the over-examination of Kauto is unique to him - I think it is a tendency that we see all too commonly, and Best Mate received an awful lot of vitriol.

Matt Chapman had quite a bit to say about Kauto in this weeks weekender, worth a read, although I had to smile at him thinking the great fire of London was in 1212, only about 350 years out, unless it was the name of a horse? Some have said on here that KS is still as good as ever, but it is a simple fact of life that at 11y he can't be. He is extremely unlikely to win another gold cup or KG, but that said he can still win a decent race or two, so I don't really see any urgency to retire him and hopefully with Ruby back up he can end his career on a winning note.

RTB, I misread the post and thought it was from CV

Not quite sure where I'd place you in the pantheon of poets - perhaps we'll get some suggestions?

Led on the Bet - that is a useful angle and interesting analysis. Good to see some maths to counter these poets who are coming on here to bare their souls.

I suppose it could be said that in 2009, Nacarat and Ollie Magern went off fast enough from the front to allow Kauto to be dropped in that bit deeper than he was last Saturday i.e. because they would be wary of chasing too intensely an early pace that was always likely to prove too fast for those making the pace to last home effectively. In the  race last Saturday, with the early pace at the front not quite as fast, there was a bit less scope in some ways for taking up a deeper position, and there was a bit more bunching in the field this time as well in the first half of the race which perhaps wouldn't have made it quite so easy to find a comfortable position deeper set. Even so, whether Kauto needed to be ridden quite so prominently this time, there is probably a debate to be had.

The Sawyer's post adds a lot here, I think. If the ground was quite a bit better for the race last Saturday, as The Sawyer suggested, the fact that Kauto got to the third last around 3 seconds faster than his time in 2009, assuming a relatively even pace, wouldn't have necessarily demanded that much more from him stamina-wise and in that sense being ridden prominently might not have made any difference to how much he had left in reserve at that stage.

There is the issue though of whether being ridden that bit more forward in the field made it harder for Kauto to settle. He did seem to be running with the choke out quite a bit, some people have commented. But if he was running with an infection, that could also explain why he wasn't travelling with quite as much ease as he has in many of his races in the past.

Of course, we are not talking about an exact science when it comes to determining differences in the actual ground conditions between different meetings where the official going is the same or very similar. There did seem to me though some evidence to suggest the going was that bit better on Saturday, though perhaps not to the extent to explain all of the hypothetical 20 lengths victory that The Sawyer calculated.

Steeple.

Start at Pam Ayres and keep going down 'til you hit permafrost!

Ahh, Pam is the best.  A trawl through this thread and she might even come up with something like this . . .

There's some that follow jockeys and there's those who bet on greys
So many lose on favourites before they mend their ways
A few avoid a rider who's too handy with his stick
Then there's those who draw conclusions on a horse when he is sick

They tend to write on forums, at some length, sometimes with style
Of the races where the sections all break down eight to a mile
But from scientific timings with a stopwatch held aloft
A blind eye's turned to going be it good or good to soft

"He reached that fence two seconds late compared with last year's race
And it's no excuse he passed the post with blood flecking his face
Nor is it fair to comment that the ground this time was faster
The facts are there for all to see, the horse is a disaster"

"He's done, declining, finished and ought to be retired
His jockey should be pensioned off, his trainer must be fired,
Poor punters, don't forget them, they are the dispossessed
At all costs we should protect them from a horse who has regressed"

Steeple! Magnificent!

*doffs cap....slinks away muttering*

aka

Apologies for the delay. Yes I do think there was a big difference in the going (or whatever else can influence the times): my figures for the chase track suggest the ground was almost 2 seconds per mile faster this year.

As Zilzal correctly points out, the hurdle course looks (and generally does) ride ride more slowly. I make the hurdle course around 1 second per mile faster in 2011.

I use a combination of a slightly modified Mordin technique and my own which compares sectional times at various points of a race.

Since the course changed at Kempton, the RP standard times initially looked very strange, with the 2m hurdle and 2m chase standards being too close together to suggest either they were right (or the actual distances were). They have since reduced the 2m hurdle standard by 7 seconds (I think) but having spent hours trying to work around these, I eventually "invented" my own standards.

This year, allowing for class and race distance, the four chase adjustments were -1.2(16), +0.6(20.5), +1(24) & 0.8(24): I decided upon 0.8.

In 2009, the numbers were -0.9(24), -1.2(24) & -1.3(20.5), I used -1.1 as the adjustment.

It does seem it was quicker this year looking at that, which is bizarre given the going description. At least we have a much clearer picture- if you take the infection out of the equation (which you can't, of course) it would look as if the speed test on that ground up against a top young horse found him out (not surprising given his age). Will he run in this race again? I wonder if they will go for the Hennessy instead next season (flat, galloping track over a longer trip) if he shows in the Gold Cup he is still in decent enough form. Will the handicapper relent at the end of the season and drop him a stone or so? If so, that would be interesting getting a few pounds from Denman at Newbury..

Steeple, brilliant.

Alot of people on here have been disrespectful to myself and Kauto Star. We just think your a bunch of muppets! lol

The Bard of Betfair - brilliant stuff, Steeple. Might even raise you a few pounds above Pam Ayres.

The Sawyer - thanks for getting back to me on those points. It is very helpful information. The better ground, allied to the slightly more restrained early pace, helps put in context why they were able to got home in the latter stages in what seemed a comparatively quick time.

Led on bit - I suppose he would be less likely to get outpaced in a race like the Hennessy, but on the other side of the coin that is often seen very much as a race for younger legs, particularly where a lot of weight has to be conceded to the less experienced horses. I suppose if he did run well in the GC, they would have to give consideration to aiming him again at the KG in December, given the attraction of going for a fifth win. But that is not going to be an easy decision to make, particularly now the trainer has acknowledged the KG may be too much of a speed test for Kauto at this stage in his career.