Betting.Betfair

The Lord reflects on a dramatic night at Doncaster and provides an update on the latest developments regarding Walthamstow...


Carbarns Tom won a dramatic Betfair Yorkshire St Leger final at Doncaster on Tuesday as Charlie Lister's love affair with greyhound racing's major events continued.

Last year's runner-up took chief advantage as Bower Hawk stumbled and fell when looking all over the winner of the £8,000 prize, live on Sky Sports.

In running, the Pat Rosney-trained Wimbledon St Leger runner-up was backed at 1.01 as he tore through the field and looked set to hit the front off the last bend.  However, he ran up the back of pace-setting Frisby Fontenblu and collided with Ballymac Rumble, who was beginning to tire, and somersaulted. It was desperate luck for connections.

However, runner-up in the Betfair Yorkshire St Leger, veteran Carbarns Tom deserves his time in the spotlight and needed no second invitation as he escaped the trouble and stayed on to deny the tiring Frisby Fontenblu close home.

***

Mottos Banker, trained by Charlie Lister, was the subject of one of the biggest gambles seen for a while on Sky as the red-boxed runner was backed down to 1.4 in the 21:25.

He looked in pole position to win until swinging off wide at the second bend on what was his first visit to the Stainforth circuit. In a close-run thing, the reserve Hawks Dutchess, a rank outsider, came out on top as Mottos Banker tired in front off the last bend.

***

Tuesday's Betfair Yorkshire St Leger card also unearthed a likely star of the future as Droopys Sid won the unraced stake for Linda Pruhs.

This event produced the likes of Pall Mall champion Ballymac Ace and open-race stayer Blue Bee, who both made their debuts in the Doncaster race last year, and Droopys Sid showed similar talent.

And he could spark a revival in fortunes of trainer Pruhs, who has teamed up with Derby-winning Irish handler Ian Reilly to launch a serious challenge on the open-race scene.

***

Jimmy Lollie's Greyhound of the Year claims are put to the test again in the Scurry at Belle Vue, which reaches the semi-final stage on Thursday. Seamus Cahill's brilliant sprinter, who has won no less than 34 open races this year, remains the one to beat in the sprinter's Classic, although wasn't the fastest heat scorer.

That honour went to Jimmy Wright's Magna Buddy with a 14.89sec heat win, and Magna Buddy now takes on Jimmy Lollie in a red-hot first semi-final at Belle Vue.

The race also features Slick Citi and Ballymac Ace, with Rotar Wing and Gone To Carrhue clashing in the second semi.

***

Head It On Ellis, a winner on Tuesday's Betfair Yorkshire St Leger final, has the Eclipse as his major end-of-year target. Steve and Tony Race's dog could be joined in the Nottingham feature by Derby champion Bandicoot Tipoki and Mill Pinpoint, recent winner of the All England Cup.

The latter, having won the Steel City Cup earlier in the year, is the only two-time Category One winner in 2011 and thus has his own Greyhound of the Year claims.

***

London and Quadrant, the housing association which owns Walthamstow Stadium, is bracing itself for a new round of political pressure.

It is understood the Mayor of London's office is being kept informed of events in and around E17, in what has become a tug-of-war for the famous site.

Pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith has also been vociferous in his support of plans to buy back the land for greyhound racing and the regeneration of the area, and any support from Boris Johnson could be seen as a hammer blow to L&Q.  "The MPs have joined us wholeheartedly," said an SOS spokesman. "They can see what we are trying to do for the local community, and L&Q continue to just landbank the site."

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It's been a year of ups and downs on the WTA Tour. But what were the most important moments? In the first of a two-part series, Guy McCrea selects five highlights from the opening half of the 2010 season ...


Things looking up Down Under

The optimism of January 2010 seems so far away now. With Kim Clijsters (currently priced around 4.7 favourite to win the 2011 Australian Open) and Justine Henin 9.6 both back, Maria Sharapova 15.5 recovered from injury, the Williams sisters as imperious as ever and a crop of youngsters poised to breakthrough, there were genuine hopes that this would be one of the best WTA seasons in living memory. Alas, it didn't quite turn out that way.

For that, we can partly blame Serena Williams 5.3 and Justine Henin for producing such a high-quality Australian Open final. It's tough to remember the last time the women's final at a Slam was superior to the men's title match. But that happened in Melbourne, as two legends raised the bar and went toe-to-toe for three terrific sets. Henin, only playing her second event back on tour, almost upset the odds but Serena defended her title and became the first woman in the Open era to win five Australian Open singles crowns.


Terms of Engagement

There was some surprise in tennis circles when the WTA Tour announced an extension to its ongoing sponsorship agreement with Sony Ericsson in February. It had been widely thought that the telecommunications giant would sever ties completely. That didn't happen - but the two-year extension was nothing like the groundbreaking $88 million, six-year title sponsor deal agreed previously. Viewed simplistically, the new deal was seen as a disappointment - with Sony Ericsson ending their endorsement of both the WTA website and the prestigious year-end championships. But in this age of austerity, the WTA should actually receive praise for what they achieved. There was never any possibility of sealing a deal like the one they had before and this contract allows them some flexibility in future sponsorship negotiations.


Forza Francesca!

It's my big betting regret of the year and I am sure I am not alone. Francesca Schiavone 85.0 attracted little interest as a French Open contender. Indeed, she was a real long shot, only seeded at 17 in the women's draw. But just short of her 30th birthday, the veteran Italian produced the tennis of her life on the Parisian clay at Roland Garros to become the first Italian woman to win a Grand Slam singles title. Schiavone also became the second-oldest woman in the Open era to win a maiden major title thanks to her fairytale finish against fellow first-time major finalist Sam Stosur 17.5, who'd upset both Henin and Serena earlier in the event. The Italian's Grand Slam title run was one of the most remarkable - and unlikely - ever seen. It was impossible not to feel happy for one of the most amiable competitors in the women's game.


Sister Act

This year's French Open was also notable for the achievements of the Williams sisters. Not for once in singles (they had both gone out of that event by the quarter finals) but for their success together. Venus and Serena rebounded from those singles exits to win the doubles in Paris with victory over Kveta Peschke and Katarina Srebotnik in the final. In doing so, they became only the third pair in history to hold all four major titles at the same time. Winning their 12th career Grand Slam doubles crown also meant that the sisters held the top two ranking spots in both singles and doubles for the first time. Serena was the sixth player ever to hold the number one ranking in both forms of the women's game.


Lucky 13

She was already assured of her place in tennis history but Serena's fourth Wimbledon singles crown in July - her 13th major career singles title - was significant as it took her past Billie Jean King into sixth place in the all-time Open Era list. This was the most dominant of any of Serena's Grand Slam title runs. The closest the American came to dropping a set came when Maria Sharapova pushed her to an opening tie-break in the fourth round. Serena was ruthless against Vera Zvonareva 16.5 in the final, dropping just five games on her way to victory. But I was most struck by how well Serena served throughout Wimbledon - as good as I have ever seen her. She hit 89 aces during her singles matches to smash the women's record that she herself had set the previous year. At one stage, Serena was even serving more aces per game than the leading men! Hers was a simply awesome performance, which will live long in the memory.

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It was another good week on the tipping front in Paris at the BNP Paribas Masters where my long shot Gael Monfils proved to be an excellent trade at an opening price of [20].

And so the 2010 season draws to a close with the final event of the year - the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals at the O2 in London.

Billed as the top eight players on the planet battling it out in a 'Final Showdown' the reality might prove to be more like creaking and groaning their respective ways to a well-earned holiday, but there could be a spot of value around this week nonetheless.

The players are split into two groups of four and each player in the group has three games against the others in a round robin format, with the two most successful from each group going forward to the semi finals.

This year's group draws are: Group A - Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych and Andy Roddick, while Group B consists of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling and David Ferrer.

At first glance Group A looks a straight fight between Nadal and Djokovic, with Group B looking the tougher to be in - particularly if your name is David Ferrer. The Spaniard, who made us a fair few quid with his Valencia win recently, has it all to do, but don't be quick to write him off because the last and only time that Ferrer made the Tour Finals, he did rather well. In fact, he defeated Djokovic, Nadal and Richard Gasquet in the round robin before thrashing Roddick in the semis and eventually losing to Federer in the final in China three years ago.

I doubt that Ferrer can win it, but at least you know he'll be fit and will give it a real go, which might be enough to take him through the group and then anything can happen.

I definitely feel that at around 60.0 Ferrer has it in him to spring a bit of a surprise and he's much better value than a knackered Berdych at 42.0 and disinterested Roddick at 28.0. A-Rod has appeared in this five times and never made it past the last four. Indeed, his 8-8 record is hardly inspiring and he only made it at all due to Fernando Verdasco's pathetic post-US Open winless streak.

Berdych is another whose autumn form has been woeful and his tank looks seriously empty ahead of his first tilt at this event. When allied to his 7-9 indoor record this season, he is also readily overlooked.

So, with doubts over Roddick and Berdych, Group A should be a lock for the big two there, but I'm not convinced that Nadal will be in great shape for this, having not played for six weeks.

The Spaniard has won just one title from his 43 indoors and has an overall record indoors of 43-26, which compared to his 425-74 mark outdoors is enough to remove him from my thoughts as a potential winner.

He also lost all three of his games at the O2 last year and at 3.9 I think he's a really poor bet for the outright win.

Djokovic looks the one in that group for me, but I don't see him as value for the title at 6.6 purely because of the upcoming Davis Cup final, which will surely be his main priority over this.

Group B looks tough with Federer at 3.45 for the tournament win also looking like poor value to me, considering that he's lost four of his last seven matches in this event.

To me, it's another tournament that the Swiss will be on cruise mode in and that's not getting it done as often as it used to. His head-to-head with Murray is also a concern, with the Scot winning six of their last nine meetings.

Federer does have fantastic head-to-heads over Soderling and Ferrer at least, but then again he was unbeaten in 12 against Nikolay Davydenko until this time last year as well.

Murray should go well, but has disappointed in this for the last two years and has an overall 3-2 indoor record in 2010, so I prefer a value bet on new world number four (ahead of Murray) Soderling.

The big Swede is the indoor king with a 20-4 mark this season and he's bang in form after a gutsy win in Paris.

The record against Federer is a concern, but it's worth it at 11.0 to risk that he can come good again in these conditions after his last four effort at the O2 last year.

With question marks over the top four, let's have one last value bet of 2010 and take the Sod to prevail with a little back-to-lay saver on Ferrer at a huge price.

By Sean Calvert

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The money has been coming for England but Strauss and co. are still 3.0 outsiders to win the series - the Contrarian is having a bit of that.


Shane Warne feels that English fans are getting too arrogant about the prospect of retaining the Ashes with a rare victory Down Under, but even he was forced to concede that this is their best chance in 20 years. The Contrarian - who successfully argued last week that Fernando Alonso wouldn't win the Formula One Drivers' Championship (though he didn't anticipate the tantrum that followed) - is backing England to end their 24-year wait for a series win in Australia...


This is a completely different Australia team...

England's last trip to Australia saw them produce their most pitiful performance in 86 years and fall to a 5-0 series whitewash, but the hosts are vastly changed from the team that absolutely humiliated Andrew Flintoff's side back in 2006-07. Of the 11 men who represented Australia in the fifth Test four years ago, only captain Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and Mike Hussey are in their laughably large 17-man squad. Stuart Clark, the top wicket taker of that series, missed out on a central contract, while several stars such as Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath have retired.


...and they're on their worst run for 22 years

Further proof that the current side doesn't compare to the great team of the last decade is their form, or more significantly, lack of it. Australia head into the Ashes on a run of three straight Test losses, suffered at the hands of Pakistan and India, a fate last endured in 1988. The last was the most emphatic of the lot, a seven-wicket defeat which left them below England in the ICC Test rankings in fifth.


Australia are failing across the board

A trio of defeats could be written off as a blip, especially as two of those have come against the best Test nation on the planet, so it's by scanning Australia's latest results in all forms of cricket, Twenty20 and One Day Internationals (in which they are supposedly the world's finest) included, that the extent of their current malaise becomes clear. In addition to the Test match slump, they've lost four successive Twenty20 ties and were second-best in three ODIs in a row before seeing off Sri Lanka earlier this month, a win that didn't prevent them from losing the series, their first in almost two years at home.


England are in great form...

It's not only the fact that Australia are struggling that gives the Contrarian confidence that England are finally going to win Down Under though - England's recent record is hugely encouraging. Andrew Strauss' men are unbeaten in six Test series and have won the last three of those. The last time they were on such a successful streak was ahead of the memorable 2005 Ashes triumph. England haven't merely been grinding out series victories either, they've become tough to overcome in any given Test match, losing just three of their last 23 (13 per cent). It's therefore difficult to fault Paul Collingwood's contention that "We have the best squad together now that I've seen in my ten years in the game".


...and did it all just 15 months ago

England showed last summer that they are capable of outshining the Aussies and the majority of that squad, including top performer Strauss, are still there. Admittedly, being holders didn't prove much of an advantage in 2006-07, however there were clear signs form-wise that it would end badly as they won only one of four series in between winning the Ashes and losing them again down under. On two of the three occasions prior to that where England arrived in possession of the urn, they returned home with it still in their suitcase.


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Sunderland's shock 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge on Sunday has re-ignited the Premier League title race and for punters the blunt question is whether now is the time to back Chelsea at 2.06 or lay them at 2.08.

The market has moved against the champions, even though they still head the table by two points, but it may be wiser to judge them on long-term form rather than make snap judgments based on one bad result. And the opportunity to back them at better than evens looks too good to miss.

Last season, remember, Chelsea had similar setbacks - notably losing 3-1 at Wigan in September and 4-2 at home to Manchester City in late February. Both of those defeats figured in runs of two losses in three league matches, just as Sunday's defeat did, but that did not stop them regaining the title.

Chelsea clearly have a problem when key players such as Frank Lampard, John Terry and Michael Essien are missing, but the assumption made by several commentators this week is that other teams will be able to exploit their weaknesses as effectively as Sunderland did.

A more reasonable conclusion to be drawn from Sunday's match is that Chelsea lost to a much-improved Sunderland team, which had weapons lacked by most other teams in the Premier League. Every team may aspire to upsetting the champions, but few have attackers with the talent of the promising Danny Welbeck and the established international Asamoah Gyan.

That's why last season Chelsea dropped just 16 points in 28 matches against the bottom 14, and so far this season they have taken 25 points from 10 games against teams currently outside the top six at an average of 2.5 points per game - virtually the same average as last season in that category.

By contrast, Manchester United's points average in that category is 2.2, Arsenal's 2.11 and Manchester City's 2.0. At that rate, Chelsea will outperform their rivals by at least eight points in games against the bottom 14, leaving only 10 other matches in which that gap can be closed.

In that light, Chelsea's losses to Manchester City (currently fourth), Sunderland (sixth) and Liverpool (11th) may not prove as significant as they have seemed at the time. It is highly debatable whether the same can be said of Manchester City's loss at Wolves or Arsenal's two home defeats by promoted sides West Brom and Newcastle.

There are other stats against Chelsea's rivals. A high number of clean sheets has become an increasingly key part of a title-winning side's make-up, with four of the last six champions achieving shutouts in more than half of their games, and that is a major weakness for Arsenal.

Among the title contenders, Arsenal have the lowest number of clean sheets (four in 13 games) and would need 15 shutouts in their remaining 25 games to reach the 50 per cent mark for the season.

Manchester United's weakness, somewhat strangely, may be what appears to be their strength: their unbeaten record in the opening 13 games. The problem is that we should expect a title-winning side to drop points in no more than 12 games during the season, yet United have already dropped points in seven.

Just like Arsenal with the clean sheets, United will have to perform exceptionally well from now on if they are to finish as champions. So, too, will Manchester City, whose 22 points at this stage of the season is the lowest base from which the champions have risen in the past decade.


By Andrew Atherley

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The three-time world champion made a successful return to the snooker scene with a win at the Euro Tour Players Championship. There are less than three weeks until the UK Snooker Championship so has Higgins come back at just the right time?


A little over six months since John Higgins' life was turned upside down amid allegations of match fixing, the talented Scot returned to action in the Euro Tour Players Championship in Germany and duly left the city of Hamm as a champion once more.

Higgins was playing in his first event since April and was merely hoping to blow away a few cobwebs, but the old saying "Form is temporary, but class is permanent" may never have been more appropriate as the 35-year-old eased to a 4-2 victory over Shaun Murphy in Sunday's final.

The three time World Champion won a total of seven matches during the tournament including a 4-1 semi-final victory over fellow Scot Graeme Dott, but it was his first match against Joe Jogia that proved his toughest assignment of the week.

"I just came here hoping to get a few matches under my belt, so I'm delighted to win it. The first match was the hardest and that was the worst I played, Joe had chances to beat me, but after that I settled down and felt a lot better.

"Winning here gives me some confidence, but there's a long way to go, I would have felt that whatever happened here. It has no real bearing on the rest of the season." said Higgins.

The 35-year-old opened the final with a superb break of 132 and then went further ahead with a run of 66, however Murphy hit back winning the next two frames to level the match at the interval. The break obviously came at the right time and after two knocks of 95 and 53 the trophy and 2,000 ranking points were in the bag.

The victory moved Higgins up a place to number three in the world and must make him a live threat again to land a fourth World Title at the Crucible Theatre early next year for which he can be backed at 12.0 on Betfair. Ahead of that he trades at 8.0 in a developing market to win the UK Championship.

Runner-up Murphy certainly wasn't disgraced and will take heart from his recent efforts in both this and the PartyCasino.com Premier League from which he has all but qualified for the play-off stages.

Himself a winner of snooker's major prize in 2005, the 28-year-old from Harlow is currently available at ]12.0] to back for the UK Championship and will no doubt have his supporters at those odds.

Ronnie O'Sullivan remains market leader for both tournaments - 3.5 for the UK and 5.1 for the 2011 World Snooker Championship at 5.1. Reigning world champion Neil Robertson is on offer at 9.4 to retain his crown, although no first time winner has ever successfully pulled off that feat. Robertson is 7.0 to win in Telford.

Mark Selby, otherwise known as the Jester from Leicester, looks attractively priced at 9.8 to win the Worlds and would be my idea of the most likely winner at this stage. At just 23 years of age he made it to the final at Sheffield in 2007, losing out to the vastly more experienced Higgins 18-13, but showed enough on that occasion to suggest his day would come.

Final thoughts though must rest with Higgins, at a time when Snooker has been struggling in many departments it can only be good for the game that a player of his stature has emerged from a period of his life he'll want to forget with his game in good shape and I look forward to his presence on the green baize for the foreseeable future.


By Dean Goddard

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If the FA Cup still has any real purpose these days, it's as a platform for grudge matches between sides from different divisions, who very rarely play each other.

When the draw for the second round of the FA Cup was made, the standout tie was the possible clash between AFC Wimbledon and MK Dons. The media was immediately salivating at the prospect of a juicy match, with an unhealthy side dish of needle.

On paper the game reads like a Hollywood script. A club has its heart ripped out and relocated to Buckinghamshire. Amidst the devastation the fans form their own club and then years later get their chance to gain revenge in the world's oldest football competition.

For this tie to come to fruition, both sides need to win their first round replays this week. AFC Wimbledon are 1.96 to win away at Ebbsfleet on Thursday, while MK Dons are 1.93 to win at home to Stevenage.

Whilst ITV will be praying that both teams come through unscathed in order to give them a second round match that the mass public will actually be interested in watching on television, there is one group of people who are in two minds as to whether they want to see this grudge match take place.

I'm talking about the AFC Wimbledon fans. They are divided on the issue of this game. As the club are rapidly rising through the English football pyramid, there are some that think that this fixture is going to come eventually in the league anyway and that they might as well get all the fuss out of the way now.

There are others though who would prefer that the team simply lost to Ebbsfleet. They don't want to be forced to acknowledge a match against a club that they feel has no right to exist and who stole their hard fought for league position.

The Wimbledon fans have got a point. I've written the words 'MK Dons' twice now and on both occasions have had to stop myself from adding the preface 'The'. This is a testimony that in my mind at least, the team from Milton Keynes have not yet rid themselves of their American franchise style origins.

I'm sure that their fans would also prefer that the game were not taking place. Having scouted out some MK Dons forums, it seems that some fans originate from the original Wimbledon, while others are local residents who seem completely sick of being asked who they supported before a Football League club suddenly appeared on their doorsteps. As you can imagine, neither are particularly welcoming the scrutiny and interest in their club, from a general public who will all be supporting the 'original' Dons.

Some AFC Wimbledon fans are claiming that they will not attend the game if it happens. Their stance is similar to those supporters of FC United, who would refuse to go to any possible future game with Manchester United, should their 'dream' game ever materialise.

FC United are another fan-created club who have hit the big time in the FA Cup. It's possible that they could be playing Brighton in the second round, in a repeat of sorts of the 1983 cup final between the Seagulls and Manchester United.

Wimbledon won the FA Cup in 1988 and the replica of that trophy was returned to the London Borough of Merton by the MK Dons in 2007. Now no side plays in Merton and the two halves of the fragmented Wimbledon are in no rush to meet.


By Dan Fitch

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It's been a case of so far - so good, as far as England's tour Down Under is concerned. Valuable time has been spent out in the middle and there have been some confidence enhancing performances from key players. It was a relief to see Alastair Cook come good against South Australia, the irony of course is that everyone is thinking "what a waste of a ton" but let's hope that the confidence that he has gained from that knock enables him to repeat the performance in Brisbane next week.

The bowling has looked impressive and James Anderson has laid his raspberry blowing foundations with some very good spells. Graeme Swann is getting a lot of turn, Stuart Broad and Steve Finn have been ticking over very nicely thank you, whilst with the bat, Kevin Pietersen has been steady if not spectacular. All in all there is a feel good aura around England which makes you wish that the Ashes were due to get underway this very week.

They don't of course. Instead there is a four day warm up match against Australia A in Hobart. The conditions will bear little resemblance to those that England will face at the Gabba and invites the question: why was this warm up game not played at the beginning of the tour, swapping places in the schedule with the opening match against Western Australia?

That would have given England the opportunity to sample virtually the same conditions that they will face during the first Test less than a week before the Ashes start. The counter argument is: why on earth would the ECB make the players endure such energy sapping conditions so close to the big one?

It's the old 'damned if you do - damned if you don't' and Andy Flower and his advisors will face a few of those dilemmas during the course of this tour. The first conundrum was: do England stick with a full-strength side in Hobart or do they send key players, particularly the bowlers, to Brisbane to put their feet up so that they are well rested for the first Test?

The argument in the past is that England have often rocked up for the start of an Ashes series and been undercooked and that is why this third warm up game was arranged. If key players are given a leave pass, not only does it seem counter-productive but also divisive. Would you be happy going to work knowing that your peer has just been given the week off because his role is deemed more important than yours?

The batting line up must also be causing Andy Flower to wander the corridors at night. Cook's hundred in Adelaide will probably be enough to ensure that he stays in the side and Eoin Morgan looks set to get the nod at number six. Both of them need a good performance against Australia A or Ian Bell, who looked accomplished during the first innings against South Australia, might just sneak into the starting XI for the first Test.

Bell at his best is as good as anything in the England top order but a dismal average of only 25 in 13 Tests against the old foe means that he will probably be carrying drinks at the Gabba. Yep, Andy Flower and the selectors are going to have some real tough decisions to make in the near future but the England coach has been doing a mighty fine job of it to date so whatever he opts to do, the English supporters will be more than happy to trust his judgement. He has elected to send his four bowlers (Swann, Anderson, Broad and Finn) to Brisbane as an advance party and time will time if he has got it right.

The Aussies have a saying that applies to most sports when England tour Down Under; "The English always have a great team right up until the coin gets tossed." Yeah we know, this touring side is being talked up but this time it's the real deal. Why not have a wager with your shrimp- barbequing cousin? 3.2 on England to win the series, "that's very generous of you Bruce!"


By Frank Gregan

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Last Monday I wrote, "Aiden (Grimshaw) has to be the most boring contestant ever to appear on The X Factor. If you don't connect with the public then you simply won't win". Now I don't mind a bit of stick, in fact I welcome it. But more than half the comments I received last week were criticising me for labelling Aiden boring, and some of you even thought that the dullest teenager in Britain should be favourite to win this year's competition.

Well actually, Aiden was favourite - albeit briefly - after his stunning performance in the very first live show. But since then he has gone downhill faster than an alpine skier, so much so in fact that I tipped him up at big odds in the 7th Elimination market. Unfortunately for me he was the eighth person eliminated!

But the end result is the same... Grimshaw has gone... and I'm quite pleased about that despite losing a few quid on the miserable blighter.

After watching Saturday's show it's quite clear now that this year's competition has developed into a three-horse race, and I'm more than happy to have two of the runners well and truly on my side - Rebecca Ferguson and One Direction.

I completely concur with the criticism that has been aimed in Ferguson's direction recently, that she has performed the same type of song each week and is yet to demonstrate that she can move around the stage in the same breathtaking fashion that she can sing. And yes, I'd also like to see her do a few up-tempo numbers and prove that she deserves to be as short as 3.5 to win the competition. But that time will come, and when it does she will prove that she has got the X Factor. I'm not saying she is a sure-fire winner this year, but I wouldn't be wanting to back anyone else at this stage of the competition.

Of course, Matt Cardle (3.0 in the Winner market) is also a serious contender. He performed a difficult song exceptionally well on Saturday and fully deserves to be the favourite to win this year. He is extremely likeable, and similar to the boys from One Direction (3.7), he appears to be having the time of his life out there. I'll be a lot poorer if Cardle wins, but I certainly won't begrudge him his victory if that's how it turns out.

This week's 9th Elimination market is very interesting. Katie Waissel is the 2.0 favourite but I believe she is definitely worth opposing. There might (and probably will) be a double elimination at the weekend, and if that's the case then the ninth person to leave to competition will be the person who receives the fewest public votes. I have a hunch that Katie won't be that person. She might not be the best loved performer still in the competition but she is surely gaining a lot of admiration for the way she keeps raising her game when it comes to the sing-off.

I'm of the opinion that Wagner (3.6) still has enough supporters out there to prevent him from finishing bottom of a public vote, or to keep him out of the bottom two if it turns out to be just a single elimination. Therefore my selections to be the next eliminated are going to be Paije Richardson (6.4) and Mary Byrne (14.0). Both have been hovering just above the bottom two if rumours are to be believed, but this could be the week when one of them gets to say those immortal words, "This is not the end for me".


By Mike Norman

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The top six sides all faced each other on a memorable weekend in Italy. While Zlatan Ibrahimovic was the big match-winner, earning and scoring an early penalty that gave AC Milan a 1-0 win over Inter, the individual performance of the weekend came from Palermo's Javier Pastore, who hit a hat-trick in the 3-1 derby win over Catania. Elsewhere, Lazio beat Napoli 2-0 while Juventus and Roma drew 1-1.

The Milan result heaps more pressure on Inter boss Rafa Benitez, whose side have now scored just five goals in their last eight Serie A games and are six points behind leaders Milan. Inter are 3.1 for the title, while Max Allegri's team, still a work in progress, are 2.34 favourites. Benitez is struggling with a squad that has too many players aged over 30 and under 23, and blamed the World Cup on the slow performances of his key players. "You can see that the team looks to Diego Milito, Samuel Eto'o and Wesley Sneijder for ideas and they are not at the same fitness or form levels as last season," he said.

How much of that is down to Benitez rather than the summer tournament is open to debate. Milito's agent has already publicly cricitised the coach for not giving his man the same opportunities as he had last season, mainly because he is picking Eto'o as the centre-forward now. Sneijder, meanwhile, has called Benitez's predecessor Jose Mourinho "my father in football" and has been struggling with fatigue all season.

Sneijder fainted at half-time during a recent match, and is one of 14 of the 23 Dutch World Cup players who has been injured in recent weeks. After playing in the Champions League final, and then reaching the World Cup final, Sneijder only had an 18-day holiday and, in a recent interview, revealed that Benitez worked his new team really hard during the pre-season in July and August. According to Dutch fitness coach Raymond Verheijen, recently of Manchester City, "World Cup players don't need hard training in pre-season as they are already very fit. All they need is to get rid of their fatigue ­ so a hard pre-season exhausts World Cup players even more, so eventually they will get injured and then the coaching staff blames the World Cup."

There are no such problems at Palermo, where Pastore was also in World Cup action but has been in sparkling form this campaign. His hat-trick, an authentic one as it featured a header, and then left-footed and right-footed goals, takes him to seven goals for the season ­ one behind Eto'o and Edinson Cavani - and overshadowed, temporarily at least, last week's quit threat from president Maurizio Zamparini after key decisions went against Palermo in their 3-1 loss to Milan. "I hope that all the fans of the small clubs and some of the big ones can hit the streets to protest for a radical change. I am too old to keep fighting. I have already given orders to sell the club, so the new post-Zamparini era has already begun."

Pastore may not finish the season as top scorer ­ Eto'o is 2.26, Ibra, on six goals is 3.5 with Cavani (4.1) - though Palermo are 6.8 to finish in the top four, which is what the Argentine has said his ambition is for the season. They are currently three points behind fourth-placed Juventus. Pastore is the jewel in Zamparini's crown, and his decision to reject an offer from Real Madrid this summer ­ the Spanish side bought Mesut
Ozil instead ­ is looking inspired.

"He reminds me of Zinedine Zidane with his grace and elegance," Zamparini told a French newspaper recently. "There are not many players like Javier: he's from the same mould as Messi," he told the Argentine press. "One thing is for sure though: of all my children at Palermo, Pastore is my favourite son," he added. "He's what you call a "fuoriclasse": super-top class."

If Zamparini stays at Palermo until the end of the season, he could cash in on Pastore, and new midfielder Armin Bacinovic, recently linked to Chelsea, and leave with his head held high. That's if he leaves at all: after all, he's made similar threats before.


By Ben Lyttleton

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