Betting.Betfair

[b]The Betfair Contrarian explains why Cardle and Cowell can be stopped and why he's desperate to recover some funds....[/b] The Contrarian is rarely wrong when it comes to reality TV, so was naturally feeling a little sheepish when Matt Cardle defied him by winning The X Factor. He never accepts defeat without a fight though, and is delighted to spot an opportunity to make back his money and much more besides - by opposing Cardle to be Christmas number one at 1.08. Here's why the singing painter will miss out... [b]Last year showed that Cowell can be stopped[/b] Punters who are heavily swayed by where the money is going will look at the odds of 1.05 on Matt Cardle's single reaching number one and assume that it is a foregone conclusion, but last year's events suggest that...

So here we are then - the end is nigh. Saturday nights will once more be yours. The trouble with the final weekend of the[b] X Factor[/b] however, is that come Monday, the unemployment figures in this country will have swelled faster than Cash Warren on his wedding night (oh, Google it or something). Indeed, reading the news this week, it appears that being OFF the show is truly awful. Waissell is in bits, Wagner can't get his bennies - it's the stuff of nightmares. Enough of these losers however - who will win, that's what the world wants to know. Well, our tip is [b]One Direction[/b]. During the inevitable victorious-homecoming segment of the final show, viewers will be treated to scenes of insane mobs of screaming girls. These same girls will presumably stay up all weekend hysterically...

I'm not quite sure what to make of the [b]X Factor[/b] weekend we've all just had to endure; it was bizarre to say the least! Most of the craziness centred around eccentric Brazilian [b]Wagner[/b], who without a shadow of a doubt put in the worst performance I've ever seen by any X Factor contestant this year or any other year. But it was Cheryl Cole's post-song verbals towards Vaarg-ner that made for uncomfortable viewing. Wagner had simply stated some facts in an interview done earlier in the week, that Cole was someone to look up to because of the way she's come from a council estate to where she is today. Unfortunately [b]Princess Cole[/b] took offence to Wagner's subsequently twisted words and decided to have a pop at him live on air. It was all very unprofessional - on Cole's...

Last Monday I wrote, "Aiden (Grimshaw) has to be the most boring contestant ever to appear on The X Factor. If you don't connect with the public then you simply won't win". Now I don't mind a bit of stick, in fact I welcome it. But more than half the comments I received last week were criticising me for labelling Aiden boring, and some of you even thought that the [b]dullest teenager[/b] in Britain should be favourite to win this year's competition. Well actually, Aiden was favourite - albeit briefly - after his stunning performance in the very first live show. But since then he has gone downhill faster than an alpine skier, so much so in fact that I tipped him up at big odds in the 7th Elimination market. Unfortunately for me he was the eighth person eliminated! But the end result...

[b]Matt Cardle[/b] (2.62 Winner market; 1.18 Top 3 market) Matt is a fantastic singer no doubt and he fully deserves to be favourite to win this year's contest. Even my 'degree-in-music, league two football-loving' friend thinks he will win so that's good enough for me. The one question I will pose to you all though is, has he played his trump card too early? His rendition of The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face was spine-tingling admittedly, but that's the song that got the judges' attention at Bootcamp and I would have thought he'd have saved it for later in the show. His propensity for high-pitched songs might catch him out as the competition progresses, but somehow I doubt it as he is in such a strong position now, one below-par week won't be too detrimental to his chances of winning. [b]Rebecca...

With the girls outnumbering the boys seven to four on Strictly Come Dancing, The Contrarian is confident that his last reality TV show tip - on Strictly having a female winner - is as good as won, and it's time to start thinking about the X Factor. He's not sure if a girl is going to win yet, but there's one thing for certain - it won't be current favourite Matt Cardle. Oppose him at 2.86 - here's why... [b]The favourite rarely wins[/b] The first rule of reality TV show betting is to never bet on a favourite and that advice is particularly useful when it comes to the X Factor, as those who backed Rhydian Roberts in the 2007 final, which he went into as the 1.29 frontrunner, learned the hard way. Another fairly staggering trend to be aware of is that in each of the last three series,...