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It was another good week on the tipping front in Paris at the BNP Paribas Masters where my long shot Gael Monfils proved to be an excellent trade at an opening price of [20].

And so the 2010 season draws to a close with the final event of the year - the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals at the O2 in London.

Billed as the top eight players on the planet battling it out in a 'Final Showdown' the reality might prove to be more like creaking and groaning their respective ways to a well-earned holiday, but there could be a spot of value around this week nonetheless.

The players are split into two groups of four and each player in the group has three games against the others in a round robin format, with the two most successful from each group going forward to the semi finals.

This year's group draws are: Group A - Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych and Andy Roddick, while Group B consists of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling and David Ferrer.

At first glance Group A looks a straight fight between Nadal and Djokovic, with Group B looking the tougher to be in - particularly if your name is David Ferrer. The Spaniard, who made us a fair few quid with his Valencia win recently, has it all to do, but don't be quick to write him off because the last and only time that Ferrer made the Tour Finals, he did rather well. In fact, he defeated Djokovic, Nadal and Richard Gasquet in the round robin before thrashing Roddick in the semis and eventually losing to Federer in the final in China three years ago.

I doubt that Ferrer can win it, but at least you know he'll be fit and will give it a real go, which might be enough to take him through the group and then anything can happen.

I definitely feel that at around 60.0 Ferrer has it in him to spring a bit of a surprise and he's much better value than a knackered Berdych at 42.0 and disinterested Roddick at 28.0. A-Rod has appeared in this five times and never made it past the last four. Indeed, his 8-8 record is hardly inspiring and he only made it at all due to Fernando Verdasco's pathetic post-US Open winless streak.

Berdych is another whose autumn form has been woeful and his tank looks seriously empty ahead of his first tilt at this event. When allied to his 7-9 indoor record this season, he is also readily overlooked.

So, with doubts over Roddick and Berdych, Group A should be a lock for the big two there, but I'm not convinced that Nadal will be in great shape for this, having not played for six weeks.

The Spaniard has won just one title from his 43 indoors and has an overall record indoors of 43-26, which compared to his 425-74 mark outdoors is enough to remove him from my thoughts as a potential winner.

He also lost all three of his games at the O2 last year and at 3.9 I think he's a really poor bet for the outright win.

Djokovic looks the one in that group for me, but I don't see him as value for the title at 6.6 purely because of the upcoming Davis Cup final, which will surely be his main priority over this.

Group B looks tough with Federer at 3.45 for the tournament win also looking like poor value to me, considering that he's lost four of his last seven matches in this event.

To me, it's another tournament that the Swiss will be on cruise mode in and that's not getting it done as often as it used to. His head-to-head with Murray is also a concern, with the Scot winning six of their last nine meetings.

Federer does have fantastic head-to-heads over Soderling and Ferrer at least, but then again he was unbeaten in 12 against Nikolay Davydenko until this time last year as well.

Murray should go well, but has disappointed in this for the last two years and has an overall 3-2 indoor record in 2010, so I prefer a value bet on new world number four (ahead of Murray) Soderling.

The big Swede is the indoor king with a 20-4 mark this season and he's bang in form after a gutsy win in Paris.

The record against Federer is a concern, but it's worth it at 11.0 to risk that he can come good again in these conditions after his last four effort at the O2 last year.

With question marks over the top four, let's have one last value bet of 2010 and take the Sod to prevail with a little back-to-lay saver on Ferrer at a huge price.

By Sean Calvert

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