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Sunderland's shock 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge on Sunday has re-ignited the Premier League title race and for punters the blunt question is whether now is the time to back Chelsea at 2.06 or lay them at 2.08.

The market has moved against the champions, even though they still head the table by two points, but it may be wiser to judge them on long-term form rather than make snap judgments based on one bad result. And the opportunity to back them at better than evens looks too good to miss.

Last season, remember, Chelsea had similar setbacks - notably losing 3-1 at Wigan in September and 4-2 at home to Manchester City in late February. Both of those defeats figured in runs of two losses in three league matches, just as Sunday's defeat did, but that did not stop them regaining the title.

Chelsea clearly have a problem when key players such as Frank Lampard, John Terry and Michael Essien are missing, but the assumption made by several commentators this week is that other teams will be able to exploit their weaknesses as effectively as Sunderland did.

A more reasonable conclusion to be drawn from Sunday's match is that Chelsea lost to a much-improved Sunderland team, which had weapons lacked by most other teams in the Premier League. Every team may aspire to upsetting the champions, but few have attackers with the talent of the promising Danny Welbeck and the established international Asamoah Gyan.

That's why last season Chelsea dropped just 16 points in 28 matches against the bottom 14, and so far this season they have taken 25 points from 10 games against teams currently outside the top six at an average of 2.5 points per game - virtually the same average as last season in that category.

By contrast, Manchester United's points average in that category is 2.2, Arsenal's 2.11 and Manchester City's 2.0. At that rate, Chelsea will outperform their rivals by at least eight points in games against the bottom 14, leaving only 10 other matches in which that gap can be closed.

In that light, Chelsea's losses to Manchester City (currently fourth), Sunderland (sixth) and Liverpool (11th) may not prove as significant as they have seemed at the time. It is highly debatable whether the same can be said of Manchester City's loss at Wolves or Arsenal's two home defeats by promoted sides West Brom and Newcastle.

There are other stats against Chelsea's rivals. A high number of clean sheets has become an increasingly key part of a title-winning side's make-up, with four of the last six champions achieving shutouts in more than half of their games, and that is a major weakness for Arsenal.

Among the title contenders, Arsenal have the lowest number of clean sheets (four in 13 games) and would need 15 shutouts in their remaining 25 games to reach the 50 per cent mark for the season.

Manchester United's weakness, somewhat strangely, may be what appears to be their strength: their unbeaten record in the opening 13 games. The problem is that we should expect a title-winning side to drop points in no more than 12 games during the season, yet United have already dropped points in seven.

Just like Arsenal with the clean sheets, United will have to perform exceptionally well from now on if they are to finish as champions. So, too, will Manchester City, whose 22 points at this stage of the season is the lowest base from which the champions have risen in the past decade.


By Andrew Atherley

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