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The 2011 Race to Dubai moves into top gear this week, with the start of the 'Desert Swing'. In keeping with the general shift in golfing power towards the Middle East, the swing is extended to four events this year, including the new Volvo Golf Champions in addition to regular fixtures at the Abu Dhabi Championship, Qatar Masters and Dubai Desert Classic. Here's five regional specialists to follow over the next month.

Martin Kaymer
No prizes for originality here, but this week's favourite and world number three has previously been seen to best effect in this part of the world. Abu Dhabi was the scene of his maiden victory in 2008, and he regained the title last year with an impeccable front-running display. Kaymer also has a fine record in the Dubai Desert Classic, where his worst result from three attempts is fourth. At their peak, world stars like Tiger Woods and Ernie Els proved virtually impossible to keep out of the frame in that event, and I suspect Kaymer fans will rack up big profits in renewals over the next decade. One word of warning about Kaymer though - his record at next week's Qatar Masters is poor compared to Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
Best Bet: To win the Dubai Desert Classic

Rory McIlroy
Again, McIlroy is a blindingly obvious selection, based on a stellar Gulf record. His breakthrough title came in the 2009 Dubai Desert Classic and he's only once finished worse than sixth in seven Middle East events over the past two seasons. If, like me, you're expecting Rory to improve in 2011, this section of the schedule is the best time to capitalise. Rory spent the entire weekend in contention at last year's Abu Dhabi Championship, and is fancied for slightly better luck this time. The very best bet, though, could be 2.06 about a top-ten finish this week.
Best Bet: Top-Ten Finish in Abu Dhabi Championship @ 2.06

Louis Oosthuizen
This is a big year for Oosthuizen, as he seeks to show that his Open victory wasn't a fluke. Prior to those St Andrews heroics, Louis had saved nearly all his best form for the Middle East. In 11 tournaments here over the past three seasons, Oosthuizen has registered ten top-25 finishes, including four top-fives. It is almost unanimously recognised that his game seemed to move up a gear after the Open, and as winner of the recent Africa Open, there are few players in better form. That extra 'match fitness', plus fifth and second place in the last two renewals, suggest Abu Dhabi represents his best chance.
Best Bet: To win the Abu Dhabi Championship @ 21.0

Alvaro Quiros
The good thing about Quiros is that, while he is erratic and therefore usually available at decent odds, he is a winner. As an extremely long-hitter, though not always straight, he tends to save his best for wide-open layouts where he can let rip off the tee with impunity. That is usually the case with these Gulf courses. Quiros could plausibly win any of the three Desert Swing events, but by far his best opportunity will be at the Qatar Masters, where he's won and finished second in the last two renewals.
Best Bet: To win the Qatar Masters

Chris Wood
Widely tipped for glory after making the places at the Open whilst still an amateur, this third full season is a big one for Wood. Having blown several good winning opportunities, rarely looking convincing in contention, if he doesn't grab a maiden title in 2011 many followers will give up on him as a 'bottler'. However, it is far too early in his career to be drawing such conclusions, and there was much to like about Wood's seasonal debut second place in the Africa Open. That could be the perfect warm-up for the Desert Swing, in which Wood registered three straight top-20s last year.
Best Bet: Top-Ten Finish @ 7.0 in Abu Dhabi and Dubai Desert Classic

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If Martin O'Neill does join West Ham United in the coming days it will be a welcome return to the Premier League for one of the game's more colourful characters, but such an appointment would beggar the question, what on earth is he is thinking?

This is a man, after all, who four years ago was interviewed for the England job, only to lose out to Steve McClaren, presumably because the FA, as they did when overlooking Brian Clough in 1977, feared that they might be dealing with too much of a loose cannon for their tastes.

Since then, O'Neill worked wonders with Aston Villa, guiding them to 11th place in his first season (five better than the previous year) and sixth place in his subsequent three, improving his side's points tally year on year and narrowly missing out on Champions League football. Indeed, the plight in which Villa now find themselves - a point above West Ham and a tempting 5.3 to get relegated - is as strong an indicator as any of just what an amazing job the northern Irishman did.

It's a wonder that no other clubs, such as Liverpool, Newcastle or Blackburn, have tried to recruit O'Neill, as he has proven himself, with the right backing, to be one of the best in the business. He has the experience, the intelligence and the man management skills to achieve at the highest level, which is why, presumably, West Ham are interested in securing his services - but why would the man known at Celtic as 'Martin the Magnificent' be interested in taking over a club sitting at the bottom of the Premier League and odds-on favourites at 1.67 to go down?

For someone who grew up in the 1960s and played in the '70s and '80s, there is perhaps a certain appeal to the prospect of managing West Ham; a traditional London club with a fine footballing heritage and a loyal fanbase. The club's ambitious directors also envisage the opportunity to improve the club's fortunes and stature with a move to the Olympic Stadium.

Also, though the Hammers are propping up the table, recent results suggest an improvement in form - the Newcastle and Arsenal losses notwithstanding. Before yesterday's reverse, for which Scott Parker, Victor Obinna, Federic Piquionne and Valon Behrami were all absent, the Irons had won four and drawn two of their previous seven matches in all competitions. Avram Grant's men are also just two points from safety and five shy of 12th place - albeit having played more matches than their closest rivals.

Though Wolves, Wigan and Birmingham are also showing signs of improving form, the Hammers are by no means doomed. Thirteenth-placed Liverpool, for example, have not shaken their losing habit and at 25.0 could be a fantastic bet to go down.

O'Neill might perhaps be tempted by the prospect of earning himself Messiah status in the East End in the belief that his notorious motivational powers can save the club from relegation. Or perhaps he is just itching to manage in the Premier League again. But is it worth the risk?

West Ham claim that there are transfer funds available this month but whether or not they are sufficient to bolster a wafer-thin squad remains to be seen? And what sort of player is prepared to join a struggling club? Someone like Wayne Bridge, who was culpable for all three Arsenal goals yesterday? It seems more likely that the Hammers will struggle to keep hold of their best players, with Matthew Upson and Behrami having been strongly linked with moves elsewhere, than improve on their Parker-dependent number.

There are simply too many reasons for O'Neill not to take over the East End club. For one, if he left Villa because Randy Lerner wasn't prepared to continue bank-rolling him why would he join a club who think that £16m spent in the summer was a big outlay? Secondly, there would be the daily headache of dealing with directors more interested in seeing their own names in the papers and faces on TV than Katie Price.

Given the trigger-happy climate that prevails in the Premier League, O'Neill will be far better off waiting for more appealing offers to come along - and perhaps the deafening silence emanating from Upton Park suggests that that is exactly what he is doing.

It will be only too refreshing to have the energetic, charismatic and entertaining Irishman back in the top-flight, but he would be far better off biding his time. Keep the faith, Martin, and if you really want to see Karen Brady close up, just watch some re-runs of The Apprentice.

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Forget defeat at Old Trafford and Bloomfield Road, Kenny can turn it around! Here are five reasons why, thanks to the Betfair Contrarian

There are plenty of statistics illustrating how far Liverpool have fallen, but the one that wakes the Contrarian at night is that two seasons ago he was arguing that they would win the title, a prophesy that came very close to fulfilment, whereas he is now left to explain why they will finish in the top six at 3.9 and secure a spot in the Europa League for the second successive season, something that would be greeted as a genuine achievement. Here's why he's backing King Kenny to turn things around...

They don't have much ground to make up
The Premier League has been so tight this season that despite Liverpool's disastrous start, they are within eight points of sixth place with a game in hand in which they will be odds-on to collect maximum points - at home in a fortnight to Fulham, who have won only once in 28 matches on their top-flight travels. Another advantage is that most of their toughest away days are already out of the way - they are still to visit just three of the 11 teams above them, whereas they host six of them.

The traditional contenders are also struggling
Over the summer, few would have disputed that the eight strongest sides in the Premier League were the Champions League-qualifying quartet, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Everton and Liverpool. Luckily for the Reds, their nightmare few months have occurred at a time when Everton and Aston Villa, both predicted rivals for a top-six finish, have proven incapable of taking advantage. The Toffees are level with Liverpool despite having played a game more and have a trip to Anfield on the horizon, while Aston Villa are in the bottom three having won only two of their last 15 in the league.

The current occupants can't be relied upon
Instead, the club currently clinging to sixth are Sunderland, who last ended a campaign in such a lofty position back in 1954-55 and still aren't rated too highly at 4.1 to stay there. There are several concerns about their ability to last the course, such as the fact all bar three of their 25 goals have been scored by their strikers or the opposition, suggesting that they are in trouble if those dry up, and their tendency for massive dips in form. At one point last season the Black Cats went 14 matches without a win, while the year before they triumphed in just three of 20 fixtures after Christmas. Bolton, the other surprise package, already appear to be falling away right now. Another encouraging trend for Liverpool is that they've picked up more points in the second half of the last three seasons.

Gerrard and Torres can't underperform for ever
The old argument that Liverpool are a two-man team hasn't been heard as often recently because Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres rarely impressed for Roy Hodgson. Regardless of whether the reason was that they weren't playing for the former Fulham boss or that they are suffering World Cup hangover, it's implausible that they will go on playing this badly. Torres has never scored fewer than 14 goals in a Premier League campaign, even when only making 20 starts, while he has grabbed at least 13 in each of the last eight years, and Gerrard's influence tends to grow after Christmas.

Dalglish has never missed out on the top six
The debate as to whether Kenny Dalglish can succeed as a manager having been out of the game for over a decade is understandable but his record prior to that lengthy hiatus was pretty spectacular. In 12 of his 13 seasons at Liverpool, Blackburn, Newcastle and Celtic (excluding 1998-99 as Newcastle axed him after two matches), he finished in the top six of whatever division he was in, his sole failure coming in his second year at St James' Park, for which he compensated with an FA Cup Final run.


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In this time of economic peril, with the country undergoing more cuts than an origami class, ITV's strategic thinking seems a little puzzling. Spending ample pennies training up all these celebs to skate, only to boot four out before the competition begins, seems a little out of keeping with the national mood.

Angela Rippon hasn't reflected the national mood since about 1977, so it was little surprise to see her skate off into the sunset on Sunday. Rippon is apparently absolutely livid about this, despite being a distinctly average ice skater. She vented this fury with a rant about judge Jason Gardiner, suggesting that how dare he call her boring! Or something like that - was too bored to listen.

Also out was Nadia Sawalha - upsetting for her no doubt but not as distressing as when she found out lover Gianni di Marco might be her brother.

The historic pattern of 'D on I' winners to-date reads like a seating plan at a posh dinner party: girl, boy, girl, boy, girl. Hence it would appear to be the very height of rudeness, not to mention a great social faux pas if yet another female were to win the thing this time around. Little surprise then that Eastenders actor Sam Attwater is in the driving seat at 2.82.

Of the other blokes in contention to take the prize, ex-Mr Jade Goody, Jeff Brazier, has already been bashed by Jason Gardiner for not having a commanding enough masculine presence. To recap, whilst wearing lycra bodysuits and ice skating to soft rock music, one must also maintain a commanding masculine presence. That's an ask Jason. A big ask.

Woman news now, and having made it through to the final 12 of a television ice-dance show, Kerry Katona claimed her achievement was like, "getting into the Olympics." Only in the sense that getting a C Grade at Drama GCSE is like winning an Oscar, Kerry.

Elsewhere, Laura Hamilton - unknown last week, leading girl this week - needed a bespoke outfit on Sunday, for similar reasons as the host Holly might. Male voters will like that. Back her at 5.7.

And finally, Vanilla Ice freaked out and was rushed to the Dancing on Ice A&E tent at the weekend, after BLOOD was spotted on his outfit. Disappointingly, it turned out to be jam from a donut, which presumably matched the DNA of the sugar on his fingers. It's going to be a long three months...

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One Premier League market that seemed to be an absolute non-event, if not from the start then after just a handful of games of the season, was that of top London club.

At that stage, according to most experts, it wasn't a case of whether Chelsea would win the title but by how much and with good reason. Five matches were played and five were won, 21 goals were scored and just one conceded. Game over.

But things have changed. Since losing 2-0 at Anfield at the start of November Carlo Ancelotti's side have picked up 10 points from a last possible 33. Their demise has been well documented but remarkably it has not been reflected in their odds to be top capital dog come the end of May with Chelsea still favourites at 1.56 to back despite now being below both Arsenal and Spurs.

Arsenal beat the Blues 3-1 at the Emirates over Christmas to move four points clear of their rivals and bring to an end a run of five consecutive defeats against them yet somehow Arsene Wenger's side are still 4.4 to claim London bragging rights. It is an absolutely massive price, especially when you consider that they are more fancied than Chelsea in the Top Four, Top Three and Top Two Finish markets.

But the real money could well be found in the other half of North London. White Hart Lane has been a hugely entertaining place to be this season with Spurs performing well in all competitions. Tottenham are four points worse off than they were after 21 games last term, but are still in the top four and in any case lower points totals look like being the norm all-round whether teams are chasing the title or desperately trying to avoid relegation.

Most importantly of all though, after last season's success this is covered ground for Harry Redknapp's men - they've been here before and come through. There's money available to the manager as well should he need it with Daniel Levy more than willing to sign the cheques if the right man comes on the market.

The case for Spurs is a compelling one and there is value on them left, right and centre. The 5.9 for Top London club is quite frankly astonishing and too good to miss, but if you've taken leave of your senses and don't fancy that one there are others.

If you take a 'Big Five' of Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham as being the only realistic contenders for the title and then the champions league places, Spurs are very much the poor relation of that five. You can get them at 2.68 to finish in the top four, with the next longest being City at 1.29. that discrepancy in price doesn't make sense, but there it is in black and white.

If you fancy them to nail a top-three place then you can get involved at 4.5 with the next longest again being City at 1.89. In this most topsy-turvy of seasons a top two berth is by no means impossible but according to punters it is, with Spurs coming in at a price of 12.5. Nobody fancies Spurs despite the fact they're steering a steady course but there is blind faith in Chelsea even though they're sinking. People will see the light soon enough though so get on Harry's boys while you can.

Recommended Bets
Spurs to be Top London Club at 5.9
Spurs to finish in the top three at 4.5

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Little teams on their way to Wembley for a play-off final often call in the day before to do the tour and get in some sight seeing. It's a trick lower league bosses also use if they've been drawn to play at Old Trafford or The Emirates in a cup tie.

You get an hour or so to take your photos, get a feel of the place, get excited about the huge dressing rooms and giant stands. Then when you turn up on matchday you're only bothered about what happens on the pitch because the surroundings are no longer a surprise.

It was interesting to learn that Everton manager David Moyes did the same thing in reverse before his side started their FA Cup campaign at Scunthorpe. Leighton Baines said most of the players thought they were going shopping when the team bus turned into a retail park on the way to their hotel on Friday. Instead they were getting a look at Scunthorpe's tiny - but pretty smart - Glanford Park so they knew it would hold no horrors.

The upshot was a 5-1 win which might just mark the Toffees out as FA Cup value at 16.0. They'll have to get past a home draw with holders Chelsea, who cruised to a 7-0 romp over managerless Ipswich. But there are definite signs that Moyes' team is improving for the second half of the season, and 4.5 a top six Premier League finish looks a value bet for a side that's eight points behind Sunderland with a game in hand.

It was a good contrast to Newcastle, beaten 3-1 in the cramped surroundings of Stevenage's Broadhall Way ground. There were times when you could sense their players looking up thinking "I earn 30 grand a week, what am I doing here?" And it emphasised how management is a fine balance between getting players relaxed to perform, but wound up enough to do the hard work in the gritty side of the game.

That's one of the things Harry Redknapp is so good at, and Tottenham's second half performance after a sluggish start in the 3-0 win over Charlton suggests Spurs can adjust well to the David Beckham circus rolling into town. If anybody has the charisma to make sure he stays as the ringmaster then it's Redknapp, and two months of Beckham around the place will add a touch of glamour that will help the other players believe they belong in the Champions League, and in the top four place they occupy now and are 2.66 to hang on to.

Manchester City certainly didn't look like they much fancied their trip to Leicester, and were fortunate to get out with a 2-2 draw even though they were leading. And I saw West Brom who were simply awful in a 1-0 defeat at Reading and had the first serious signs that they are suffering from the pressure of a long losing run. You felt 3.55 for relegation looked a great bet for a side two points off the bottom and with 11 defeats in 14 games.

Sunderland manager Steve Bruce had been bemoaning the Christmas fixture programme and the fitness demands it made on his players. Did he give them all an excuse for taking it easy at home to Notts County? If so they were punished as Paul Ince's team won 2-1 and earned a home plum home tie with either neighbours Leicester or Manchester City's millionaires. And certainly Ian Holloway did little to disguise the fact his priorities were elsewhere than a third round trip to Southampton, picking a reserve side that were comfortably beaten 2-0.

Other Premier League sides followed the Everton route and approached their ties properly. Mark Hughes, desperate to improve morale at Fulham, picked his strongest side and they rolled over Peterborough 6-2. And Aston Villa also went strong at Sheffield United, with Gerard Houllier's desperation for a result rewarded as new loan signing Kyle Walker scored against his old club in a 3-1 win. Neighbours Birmingham, with a Carling Cup semi-final trip to West Ham this evening, warmed up by winning 4-1 at Millwall.

Alex McLeish's side are 3.65 to win the first leg at West Ham tonight and that's decent value. Hammers struggled to put away Barnsley 2-0 and haven't dealt well this season with the pressure of performing in front of their own fans. Perhaps Avram Grant should book them on the Upton Park behind the scenes tour!

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The departure of Roy Hodgson was not the most surprising news of the weekend. Victims of the managerial merry-go-round are ten to the dozen these days and a sorry reflection of the impatience and short-term thinking that prevails in the board rooms of modern day football clubs, but Hodgson was not entirely a victim of circumstance.

Since December 6, 13 clubs have parted company with their managers and don't be surprised if that number increases next week. No manager should be immune from the sack - the role of the head coach is the single-most important role in any club - and barring cataclysmically bad results any tactician should be granted at least a seasons' grace before his achievements can be properly assessed.

"I am shocked because I rate Roy Hodgson as a great manager," said Arsene Wenger on Saturday.

"It puts our job into perspective because he was manager of the year in July. It shows you how quickly we lose our qualities because he had to go six months later. Of course it is a shock and I feel our job suffers today."

A good deal of sympathy goes to Hodgson because, apart from being one of football's nice guys, he was never given the chance to make his mark on the side. The signings that were brought in during the summer were the work of erstwhile director of football Christian Purslow and ultimately the Fenway Sports Group (FSG) decided to trust the opinion of disaffected supporters by giving them the coach's head rather than trusting him with their money in the transfer window.

Hodgson deserved better than to be sacked by email, but the fact of the matter is that - like Sam Allardyce last month and Mark Hughes last season - he was not the FSG's choice. And there is no surer way for a manager to find his P45 in the post - or his inbox - than after the club has been taken over by new owners.

And while your heart may go out to Hodgson, who cannot have known just how poisoned a chalice he was accepting when taking on the Anfield hotseat, it is worth pointing out he is not entirely blameless in his side's performances. Liverpool have been playing dreadfully over recent weeks and the last-gasp win over Bolton, far from representing a U-turn in their fortunes, was an anomaly in a side spiralling towards the wrong end of the table. Since beating Chelsea - themselves on the brink of crisis- the Reds have lost five of their subsequent nine matches (to Stoke, Tottenham, Newcastle, Wolves and Blackburn) and drawn with Wigan.

It was not just the defeats that stuck in the craw of supporters, but the abysmal nature of the performances. Hodgson is, by nature, a defence-minded coach, and if your offensive department is not functioning, then you have to at least be able to depend keeping the goals out to justify your approach. But when your rearguard keeps leaking like a faulty lavatory (Liverpool's goal difference is worse than Fulham's) then you have nowhere to go - except the transfer market or the dole queue.

Hodgson was certainly hamstrung by the mediocrity of his players and the lack of funds, but also by his own over-cautious approach. This is nothing new; for all the European wonders he achieved with Fulham last season, that Europa League run masked a multitude of domestic sins - namely a league campaign in which the Cottagers came 12th and mustered only one away win, on the opening day of the season to boot. Liverpool have managed the same and there is nothing in the current displays to suggest a change. Indeed, at 27.0 some might be tempted to back the Reds, who lie just four points above the drop zone, to go down.

It is this unthinkable prospect that has prompted the new owners to plump for the people's champion, Kenny Dalglish. As we have seen numerous times, most recently with Alan Shearer at Newcastle, a club legend does not necessarily a good coach make.

But unlike not so Super Al, King Kenny does at least have previous. He may not have coached in the Premier League since May 1998 - 12-and-a-half years in which the game has changed beyond all recognition - but he knows what it takes to win titles as a manager, having done so at Liverpool and Blackburn. He has also been running his eye over the club from the inside over the last two years in roles at the youth academy and as a club ambassador.

In the long term Liverpool should look to a young, ambitious modern day manager who has proven his worth elsewhere - Jürgen Klopp of Borussia Dortmund or former Wolfsburg coach Ralf Rangnick would both be good choices - but in the short term Daglish is the right man at the right time. He has the full backing of the supporters, is an advocate of attacking football and possesses the charisma, experience and passion to galvanise the players into improving their results.

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England have won the Ashes. I'd love to sit here using all manner of superlatives to describe England's performances and the magnitude of the achievement but that would be inappropriate. This England team is a well-drilled side with a handful of world-class performers, an intelligent and meticulous coach and very able captain. That proved more than enough to beat one of the worst Australian sides we've seen for many years.

England will face far tougher tests than this and we'll have a more accurate picture of where they stand in the longer format of the game when they host India next summer.

The 3-1 scoreline is probably a good reflection of the difference in class between the two teams and if you think that's harsh on the Australians, consider this: how many of their players would have got into the best 11 of the two sides? I'll give them Michael Hussey at five ahead of Paul Collingwood and then I'll be really kind and pick Peter Siddle as part of a four man bowling attack ahead of Tim Bresnan and Steve Finn - because he played all five Tests, bowled with heart and aggression during all of them, got just one wicket less than Mitchell Johnson at a far better economy rate and gave Australia a great chance of winning the First Test after that hat-trick on day one.

But that's it. The rest of the team was made up of big-name players who didn't come to the party (Ponting, Clarke, Johnson), good Test cricketers who performed to the level we'd expect (Hilfenhaus, Watson, Haddin) and youngsters who may or may not make it but were far too raw for a Series of this importance (Hughes, Smith, Docherty).

England's superiority should come as no surprise to betting.betfair readers though. Anyone who was asked to give their opinion on the outcome of the Series in these pages was very much in the England camp: from the best cricket tipster in the business Ed Hawkins, former England skipper Michael Vaughan to Sky Sports pundit David Lloyd, who was so confident in England winning the Ashes that you suspect he'd started the car before a ball had been bowled; the latter tipping them up as big as 4.0 to win the Series back in June last year.

The win and the performances leave England in a very good place. Only Paul Collingwood under-performed and done the sensible, mature thing which is best for both him and the team by calling time on his Test career. He'll still captain the T20 side, be an important part of the ODI side and give something back to Durham after almost five years of rarely turning out for them because of the terms of his Central Contract. He's been the ultimate team man and given his all and can bow out with his head held high. Ian Bell will surely move up a place in the batting order in the long-term so Eoin Morgan and Ravi Bopara will battle it out to fill the number six slot. The injury to Stuart Broad was unfortunate for the Notts man but in the process England unearthed a real gem in Chris Tremlett whilst Tim Bresnan sent the message to the Selectors that, while he may not be a world-beater, he won't let anyone down when called upon.

As for Australia, the Series has thrown up questions that don't have obvious answers. Is Michael Clarke really the man to captain this side? Has Ricky Ponting played his last match in international cricket in any format? Why was Nathan Hauritz ignored by the Selectors? Was Shane Warne's mentoring of promising batting leg-spinner Steve Smith mostly conducted at McDonald's?

At least Australia have some time to make decisions, with their next Series not for another few months. ODI cricket is the name of the game now and England are marginal favourites to win the best-of-seven upcoming Series. That price (2.0, the drawn series is a runner in the market) should be snapped up before it's gone. After all, England have looked more comfortable in Australian conditions than their hosts, only Matt Prior and Alastair Cook aren't part of the squad and England won the last ODI Series between the two back in the summer.

There will be a full preview of the ODI Series and of every individual match here on betting.betfair.com.

Recommended Bet:

Back England to win the One-Day Series at 2.0

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This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Patriots, yet they boast the best record in the league (14-2) and the honour of starting the playoffs as 2.94 favourite to win the whole thing. The Contrarian's not having it, though...


The Super Bowl is often a tournament for underdogs

In none of the last six seasons has the team with the best regular season record won the Super Bowl (including the Patriots' unforgettable shock loss to the Giants in February 2008, when they went unbeaten all the way to the final game, then folded like cardboard.) Four of the last five Super Bowls were also won by the finalist that won fewer games in the regular season. In the only one that went to form it took a last minute touchdown for Pittsburgh to avoid one of the greatest ever Super Bowl shocks against the Arizona Cardinals.

They're inexperienced

In the playoffs the speed and intensity increases significantly from the regular season, and New England have key players, particularly at running back and cornerback, who have yet to experience this. This is not a veteran-heavy defense like the Pats had when they were winning Super Bowls early last decade, and a less experienced defense is more prone to making mistakes at key moments.

They match up poorly with Baltimore

The Ravens, New England's most likely play-off opponents, have twice traveled to Foxboro since last January. The results were a resounding Ravens 33-14 playoff win and a 23-20 Patriots overtime win this past October in which Baltimore outplayed New England for three quarters before melting down in the fourth. Baltimore's physical defense can knock the smaller New England receivers off their routes and they're also effective at rushing the passer with four players, which allows seven to drop into coverage. This is the only way to stop Tom Brady, who makes such quick decisions that he kills defenses who try to blitz him (he gets the ball off before blitzing players get to him, and the fewer players in coverage leave receivers open).

There's a theory in the NFL that good teams who get blown out perform very well against the same opponent the next time the teams meet.

Of their possible AFC opponents (Jets, Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers) , the Patriots thrashed the Jets (by 42 points) and the Steelers (by 13 points). Over the last five seasons, road teams that have a winning record on the season and are avenging a loss against an opponent by 14 points or more, are 29-4 against the spread. Granted, this stat is against the spread and not straight-up. But the theory behind the number is that the more teams are familiar with each other, the more evenly they will play; and a team on the losing side of a big score is more motivated than a team on the winning side.

It is worth paying attention to the "2" in the Patriots 14-2 record

No one capable of losing 34-14 to the eternally hapless Cleveland Browns (five wins all season) can consider themselves invulnerable. The other team to beat the Pats was the Jets, who have a permanent score to settle with them, ever since coach Belichick walked out on them after one day on the job to join New England in 1999.

There's a question mark against their defense

No team scored more points this year, yet folklore says defense wins Superbowls, and the Pats are leaky for such a dominant team. The statistical boffins at footballoutsiders.com have devised a team efficiency system called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) which gives the Pats the best rated offense, but a defense rated only 19th in the NFL. Top ranked are Pittsburgh, who the Patriots will probably have to get past. The Ravens are fourth.

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In 100 years time, when military historians sit and debate the reasons for the decline of the British army, no doubt many theories will be posited. The Suez farce undoubtedly marked the end of British 'superpower' status. Joining the EU has irreversibly diluted our ability to independently defend this sceptred isle. But above all, those velvet jacketed historians will point to January 2011, and the television appearance of Johnson Beharry VC in sequins. Be the best indeed.

Yes kids, it's so back it hurts. If you like dancing, and you like ice, well you're in for a treat over the next few months. Dancing on Ice returns this weekend, bringing with it celebrities, skating, and above all, Holly Willoughby on prime time television (typically only available to the lucky old unemployed.)

Contestants are as usual in this type of show, plucked from a variety of different milieus, and include sportsmen (Dominic Cork), mads-lag fodder(Jennifer Metcalfe) and people whose name fits the show (Vanilla Ice - although former Germany centre forward Paulo Rink must consider himself unlucky to miss out.)

The two hot favourites are 'Enders Sam Attwater, and TV presenter Laura Hamilton (me neither, but a google image search is recommended.) Attwater is at 3.6, whilst Hamilton is available at 5.1.

Those two may not quite be A List, but there are plenty of other intriguing contestants, who will be cluttering up your television over the next few weeks. The guest bookers have scanned the globe to give the ensemble an international flavour. WAG Elen Rivas was born in Spain, Vanilla Ice is from the States and of course Kerry Katona represents Iceland (here all week etc.) And speaking of Katona, she lines up as third favourite on the Betfair markets right now, possibly due to her notorious familiarity with the white stuff.

Just behind Katona in the betting is the lovely Jennifer Metcalfe, who brings with her plenty of experience of being lifted by random males and manoeuvred into various positions.

A dark horse may be Craig McLachlan at 34.0 (former Neighbours surf dude and Mrs Mangel botherer Henry Ramsey) who would certainly have a strong fan base amongst the 30s female demographic, a core % of the show's viewers.

Another shrewd punt could be 'Comedy' Dave Vitty - sidekick of Chris Moyles on the Radio 1 breakfast show. Vitty could be the Widdecombe of this series, and Moyles will no doubt be pushing his obedient, dumb audience to keep him in. He is a decent 5.6 to finish in the top three.

For more specials betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/specials/