Betting.Betfair

Lyon v APOEL, live on Sky Sports 4

Lyon

This is Lyon's ninth consecutive appearance in the last 16. The reason they are here again is December's 7-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb. The reason why they were almost not here is their failure to score in four of their other five group games.

This weekend's home defeat to Caen, who had not won on the road in Ligue 1 for three months, raises another doubt around the ability of Remi Garde's team to justify their strong favouritism for this match.

APOEL

Strong defence helped APOEL become the first Cypriot team to reach the last 16. They lost only one of their six games and took a point from each of their three away matches.

At the outset of any game, it seems Ivan Jovanovic's initial priority is a clean sheet: sit tight until half-time; identify a weakness in the opponents' defence; and strike in the second half. Forty-four of the team's 58 goals in all competitions this season have come after the half-time break. In this light, the Lyon/draw double-result has some appeal at 21.0.

Match Odds

Lyon have failed to win any of their last five Champions League knockout stage matches. The opposition in those games - Bayern Munich, Bordeaux and Real Madrid - have bigger reputations than APOEL, but 1.5 still looks a little short.

Over/Under Goals

All three group games at the Stade de Gerland stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is a 1.85 favourite for this match. Six of Lyon's last eight knockout-stage matches here have been similarly low-scoring and so were all three of APOEL's group games.

In the light of that 7-1 result, the market seems to be overly concerned by a heavy Lyon win and 1.85 is a generous offer.

Correct Score

Two of APOEL's three group-stage draws finished 1-1. It's a scoreline that demands consideration ahead of this match, but 0-0 at the longer price of 11.5 offers value too.

Lyon have been shut out in five of their last seven Champions League games, while APOEL scored fewer goals, took fewer shots or earned fewer corners during the group stage than anyone else who made it to the last 16.

Cover both results and, if either of them wins, you will be handsomely rewarded.

Recommended Bets: Lay Lyon @ 1.52; back 0-0 @ 11.5 & 1-1 @ 9.8 Correct Scores

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Brighton v Millwall

Crazy price alert! Brighton are unbeaten in nine in all competitions, and have won five of their last six at home. They are hosting a Millwall side that has lost five of its last seven. The Seagulls should surely be a shade of odds on - shouldn't they? They are now available to back at 2.1 having been available at 2.22 on Monday.

Gus Poyet's side made a superb start having come out of League One and were top of the table in early September. Perhaps understandably they couldn't sustain that and had slid down to 16th by the end of 2011. However, Poyet brought in three loan players from the Premier League (Sam Vokes, Gonzalo Jara and Joe Mattock) and 16 points from the last 18 has lifted them back to 8th.They refused to settle for a draw at Leeds on Saturday, and have won their last three at the Falmer Stadium without conceding a goal.

Millwall have failed to score in eight of their last 11 league games and are in the thick of the relegation scrap in 20th. Brighton have played all four sides beneath the Lions in the table at home - and won the lot.

Back Brighton @ 2.1


Middlesbrough v Nottm Forest

It seems that the fears among some Middlesbrough fans that their promotion push may falter due to a lack of squad depth are coming true. Boro have gone six games without a win since Boxing Day - and travelling all the way down to Ipswich for a farcical abandonment on Saturday won't have helped. Goals have not been in plentiful supply at either end of the field at the Riverside this season: just 27 in 15 league games. All of Middlesbrough's last six home games have produced less than 2.5 goals: in fact 80% of Boro's home fixtures this season have gone the same way.

And here they are hosting a team that scored its first goal at home since November 19 on Saturday. Forest may have broken their scoring duck hosting Watford but their finishing was still profligate. No surprise they have the worst scoring record in the division then (0.79 goals per game) - and they're up against a defence that lets in less than a goal a game at home.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.76


Birmingham v Hull

When you've got a defence that gives little or nothing away, it makes it a good bit easier to win games. Birmingham have been particularly mean at home this season; 15 teams have visited St Andrews in the league, and nine of them have left without a goal. That 60% clean sheet rate at home is the best in the division: indeed, no visiting Championship team has managed more than one goal at Birmingham this term. Chris Hughton's side are unbeaten in nine, and have managed five shut-outs in that sequence.

Hull are unbeaten in four but they have not been frequent scorers - they have one of the worst scoring record in the division, surprising for a team that is sixth. They average only 0.86 goals per game away from home and have drawn a blank in four of their last seven league outings.

Back Birmingham Clean Sheet @ 2.34

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Bayer Leverkusen v Barcelona, live on Sky Sports 2

Leverkusen

Leverkusen are 15 points behind Borussia Dortmund - who beat them on Saturday - in the Bundesliga and unlikely to match last season's second-place finish.

Michael Ballack is injured, but Robin Dutt has left him on the bench in recent weeks anyway. Pacy Swiss striker Eren Derdiyok would be the man most likely to cause problems for the European champions, but he will probably miss the first leg.

Barcelona

Pep Guardiola has won the Champions League twice and made the semi-final in his only other campaign. Opta points out that Barca have not been knocked out at this stage of the competition since Liverpool beat them five years ago.

The Spanish champions lost at Osasuna on Saturday night and have slipped ten points behind Real Madrid. The problem in La Liga has been their away form (W4-D5-L2), but they have appeared much more comfortable - and motivated - on Champions League trips.

Sergio Busquets is a major injury doubt, but, where there's Lionel Messi, there's hope. Starting with his goal in the 2009 final, the Argentinean has scored 27 goals in 28 Champions League starts, including six in three away games this season.

Match Odds

Leverkusen beat Chelsea, Genk and Valencia in group matches at the BayArena, but Barca are strong favourites to become the first away team to win more than once at the stadium in the Champions League.

The Spaniards have won their last three games with Leverkusen and five in a row on the road in the Champions League. The Germans have picked up more points (seven) from losing positions than anyone else, but their inability to avoid those situations in the first place makes it hard to see any value in opposing the visitors.

Over/Under Goals

Barcelona scored 20 times in their six group-stage games this season, equalling Manchester United's all-time record. Leverkusen's poor defensive record - they have kept only six clean sheets in their last 42 Champions League matches - suggests the visitors won't have trouble scoring.

Leverkusen have scored in all but one of their 27 previous home games in the competition. Twenty-one of those have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which easily justifies its odds-on price.

Both Teams to Score?

Both teams have scored in 19/27 at the BayArena - including seven of Leverkusen's eight previous defeats - and that offers even more value at 2.0. Saying 'yes' in that market has also paid out in 13 of Barca's 22 Champions League away games under Guardiola.

Recommended Bets: Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.0; back Lionel Messi To Score @ 1.75

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Adil Anwar, the Leeds boxer known as The Platinum Kid, is the early favourite for Saturday night's Prizefighter Light Welterweights, sponsored by Betfair. Seemed we should go to Leeds to meet him and find out more . . .

Hi Adil, and good luck for Saturday.

I know I can't wait, It's a big opportunity for me.

How did you first start boxing?

As a youngster I got into a dilemma with a kid at school and my cousin had to step in. He got suspended from school, and my dad thought it would be good as something for me for self defence. It was something he wanted to put me in anyway - my grandad was a professional gymnast and he used to do boxing in the army in Pakistan, so had always wanted somebody from the family to do it. My uncles had always been into mixed martial arts, so he took me into Martin Bateson's gym and that's how I got started.

So what made you like it?

Really it was Martin's method of training. He was an open character and we bonded straight away. He taught me a lot of the tricks I do now. He was a fantastic coach and still has an influence. I turned pro with his older brother Mark Bateson, so they both keep on top of me.

Who were your sporting heroes?

As a boy it was Prince Naseem, he was a fantastic entertainer as well as a great fighter. Then when I was on team GB it was Amir Khan, because obviously he got selected for the Olympics and he was inspirational.

So Khan was a hero then, but is he in your sights to fight one day?

It could be down the line, but certainly not right now. Eventually, I've got aspirations to fight for world titles like he has done, and he is still a great inspiration to me. Seeing him as a boy from Bolton, somebody who was there at the time I was, to excel at that stage it shows you can do it. I suppose we have similar family backgrounds because my family is from Pakistan as well. But more important than where they are from is that like him I am blessed with a supportive family, and we have both been helped along the way both financially and morally.

What was the highlight of your amateur career?

I suppose in 2004 and 2005 when I won the Junior ABAs and then went on to get picked for Team GB, and also to box for Young England versus Italy. Then, unfortunately, I was in a car accident which knocked me off course completely. I dislocated my shoulder and it put me out of boxing for more than a year, and then I had to start all over again. But it did make me realise just how much I loved the sport, and it gave me that fire to make a success of myself. They say that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger, and I think that year was good for my character. I thought: 'I want to make a name for myself'.

You're on the way because you are now English welterweight champion. Why enter Prizefigher as a light welterweight?

Because it's the division with the most talent, by far the most competitive division at the moment. I want to prove myself. Prizefighter can open doors for me.

You've been working with Ricky Hatton. Tell us about that.

Yes, I've been going down to Matthew Hatton's camp, training with him and a few of the other lads there.

And how has that helped you?

It's been excellent to work with top people. Matthew is quite a forward fighter, and he brings the pressure on to you, so it's been good to learn that from him and some of the other good boxers there. But also the big thing is they've got the heated lights in the gym. Until you fight on TV you don't realise but the spotlights are quite hot. When I fought for the English title it was new to me, and I thought 'wow, this is really hot'. Thankfully I still managed to knock James Flinn out in the eighth round, but being able to get used to those spotlights, and the pressure a fight brings on, has been really helpful since then and I think that will stand me in good stead on Saturday.

That should help for three fights in Prizefighter then?

Definitely. I'm ready, and to be honest with you I've never felt more ready for anything in my life.

That's good news for our punters who have made you favourite.

I heard that. I saw a tweet by Barry Hearn this morning. It's pretty impressive - but what matters is Saturday night. I feel good. I took the fight for the English title at four days notice and was probably only 60 per cent fit. If I could do that, just imagine what I can do when I've been preparing for six weeks. It's going to be an explosive night but it's going to be my night - Platinum Night.

For more boxing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/betting/boxing/

It's easy to draw the conclusion that Fabio Capello's resignation almost exactly four months to the day before their opening match against France is a disaster.

Whereas every other manager at the competition(bar the hosts) will have had a two-year qualifying campaign as preparation for the main event, Capello's successor will have just a handful of friendlies available to him in which to find out which system to play, which players to pick, who he can rely on, who isn't his cup of tea. That of course isn't ideal but it may be the lesser of two evils because any confidence in Fabio Capello leading England to the final or better, was surely misplaced.

The Italian is a wonderful manager, his CV speaks for itself. But in hindsight he was never the right man for this job. His disciplinarian approach just didn't work with this crop of players, though it's debatable whether that was his fault or theirs. The likes of Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard may have put in some pretty spirited performances during his time in charge but you always felt they were playing for themselves, not for him.

There was almost a scent of inevitability about England's Euro 2012 campaign. They'd probably be a little too good for Sweden and the Ukraine but not France, they'd almost certainly not be good enough for Spain or Italy in the quarters. Another defeat at the last eight stage and another case of what may have been.

Well who's going to step up to the plate and take over then? All the players are Tweeting saying they want Harry Redknapp, most pundits are saying the same, he's just been cleared of any tax evasion offences on the same day Capello left (was this coincidence, asked Gary Lineker), he's English, he's well liked by most people in football, he'd love to do the job one day and he's done fantastic work with Tottenham. It must be a done deal and quotes of short odds-on suggest it's the case.

Or is it? There's no doubting that Redknapp ticks all the right boxes and I'm sure that one day he will manage England. But when he does it, he'll want to do it properly. He'll want to take time to pick his background staff, scout players as their potential manager rather than the opposition manager, experiment in competitive matches and learn from both the successes and any failures of that campaign, all as a build-up for the competition itself. Besides, would Harry walk out on Spurs during a season where for the first time in his career he actually has a chance to win the league? Would he feel he could do either job justice if he was doing them both at the same time? There are enough questions with uncertain answers to suggest that a quote of odds-on is quite simply, wrong.

So lay that price or if you're looking to actually find the name of the man who could take over, consider the prospects of Guus Hiddink. He's not in a job, he has a solid reputation and knowledge of English football from his time at Chelsea, his English is perfect and he's got a fine track record in charge of international teams at major competitions. As for all the England players saying the next manager should be English, I'm afraid it's not their decision to make.

Lay Harry Redknapp at 1.6
Back Guus Hiddink at 10.0 or bigger

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

After success last week backing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, the Betfair Contrarian is confident of following it up with a rugby triumph. He's spotted Ireland at a massive 4.6 to win away to France in the Six Nations on Saturday, and thinks that there's a formidable case for backing them despite their poor record in Paris...

France are without their kicking king

Ireland couldn't have asked for a bigger boost in the build-up to Saturday's encounter than the news that France's chief kicker Dimitri Yachvili will sit it out with a back injury. The experienced scrum-half was their top points scorer at last year's World Cup, racking up an impressive tally of 39, and carried that form into their Six Nations opener against Italy, in which his ten-point haul accounted for a third of their overall total in the match. The Biarritz star is indeed so prolific that he was flagged up by Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood as his pre-tournament fancy to be top points scorer, so his likely replacement on kicking duties, Morgan Parra, has some hefty boots to fill.

Their World Cup hangover is yet to kick in

The Contrarian has discussed before the frequency with which Europe's top World Cup performers follow the feat with a shambolic Six Nations campaign, and after reaching the final in New Zealand, this France side are on course to become the latest high-profile flops. The last time that Les Bleus were World Cup runners-up was in 1999 and a few months later they lost two Six Nations home games, one of which as you've probably guessed came against Ireland. New coach Philippe Saint-Andre was victorious in his first match last week, though little can be read into that win given that it came at home to Italy, who have finished bottom of the last four editions and tasted defeat in 14 of their last 16 outings in the competition.

Might trick me once...

Whereas France got their Six Nations challenge off to a much-anticipated winning start, Ireland were beaten 21-23 by Wales in Dublin in a tie that they were leading with two minutes to go. However, don't expect them to dwell on that setback or give up on top spot with four fixtures still to play. Ireland have taken the title just once this century, compared to France's five, England's four and Wales' two, but they have the second best overall record in that period, thanks in part to their ability to recover from any setback. They reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch.

Ireland prefer life on the road

That potentially costly defeat to Wales was Ireland's third in four Six Nations home games, the move to the Aviva Stadium evidently not having had the desired effect. The flip side of that alarming trend is that a lot of their most inspiring work is produced on their travels, where they have won six of their last eight in the Six Nations. Recent results away to Les Bleus haven't been as uplifting, though encouragement can be found in the fact that they are getting closer. Declan Kidney's team restricted them to only one try last year in Bordeaux compared to a combined 24 on their six prior visits. They suffered a 19-12 loss on that occasion, but a whopping 14 of those French points were provided by absentee Yachvili.

For more Six Nations betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/rugby-union/six-nations-betting/

Middlesbrough v Sunderland, Wednesday 19:45, ITV1

Steve Bruce certainly wasn't universally popular on Wearside, so Ellis Short and co can be satisfied with their work in identifying the best available successor, as two months in, boyhood Sunderland fan Martin O'Neill appears incapable of doing any wrong.

He has guided them to seven wins in ten Premier League games, including five in their last six, and up from 18th to eighth, but all that will be overshadowed if he manages to do something even more unlikely: make them a threat in the FA Cup again.

The two-time winners haven't reached the fifth round since the painful experience of losing a semi-final to Millwall in 2003-04, beating just one Football League team in seven years prior to their third-round victory at Peterborough in O'Neill's first FA Cup tie.

Though it was followed by a disappointing 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough at the Stadium of Light, that result suggests that the former Aston Villa boss - who led them to the semi-finals two seasons ago - is on the right track.

Boro have gone five fixtures without success in all competitions, winning none of their last three at home to sides in their division or higher, so with the Black Cats in terrific form, 2.04 is a tasty price on them getting it right at the second attempt.

Sunderland clean sheet

The correlation between Middlesbrough's slump and their recent struggle to score is clear to see, Marvin Emnes' only goal in three months coming against Shrewsbury, Lucas Jutkiewicz yet to open his account and Scott McDonald primarily netting on his travels.

The consequence is a pitiful tally of four strikes in their last seven matches at the Riverside Stadium and successive blanks there. It's a record that Sunderland's defence will be hopeful of prolonging, having conceded just twice in six encounters. They are 2.6 to keep a clean sheet and 3.15 to triumph to nil.

Best Bet: Sunderland to win @ 2.04
Other Recommended Bet: Sunderland to win to nil @ 2.15

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Henlow Puppy Derby

T1 Coolavanny Bert

One of the best puppies in the country and will be extremely hard to beat after wide-margin wins in heat and semi-final; just 11 spots off the track-record in the latter. Yet to finish out of the first two (six wins and two seconds) including a 3-3 record over CD.

T2 Fifis Legend

Could hardly have been more impressive when clocking the fastest time in the heats, but failed to trap so effectively in the semi-final. Would need to break ahead of trap one to hold any realistic chances of giving him a race.

T3 Droopys Stevie

One of the more experienced finalists and has shown improvement in each of his four starts here, helped by his trapping having improved during this competition. Readily put in his place by trap one in the semi-final, but possibilities of chasing him home again.

T4 Millwards Boom

Has run solid races in both rounds so far, making all in his semi-final, but faces a monumental test to get to the front here from this draw.

T5 Droopys Edmond

Made his debut in the heats and unlucky not to beat trap four in the semi-finals. Expect further improvement and his stamina offers him outside chances of making the frame.

T6 Benkaat Blue

Unbeaten in the competition, and showed good determination to beat trap two in the semi-final. Faces an unfamiliar trap six berth in an all-railers final, but arguably the fastest starter in the field and should benefit from trap five edging inwards. Combination of early speed and stamina offers obvious forecast possibilities.

Verdict:

Having been gifted the trap one draw it's all but impossible to envisage anything other than an easy victory for Coolavanny Bert, albeit at very prohibitive odds. Droopys Stevie continues to improve for every visit to this often tricky circuit, and along with Benkaat Blue, who might not be badly drawn in trap six, offer the best options for forecast players.

19:40 British Bred

Delwood Robbo seems to trap far more effectively here when drawn in trap three and is taken to make all. Jaytee Ray could hold up Sundance Jet. Penrhiw Guto is solid, but rarely wins.

20:00 Stayers

Prestige runner-up Fleeting Image can gain first run before holding up the late run of his litter-brother Blackrose Monach. Ardmayle Zorro has a good record here, but has been below par recently.

20:15 Standard

Blackrose Boss, fifth in the Henlow Derby, looks well drawn as the sole wide-seed, and faces weaker company than of late. Improving Millridge Duke is preferred to veteran Yahoo Jamie.

20:35 British Bred

Prolific course-specialist Westmead Shaw hasn't run since November, but boasts a good record fresh and an excellent return when drawn in trap four. Donnane Lad, ideally needs further, but may be best of the rest.

20:50 Puppy Derby Plate

A tricky race to call but early paced Smart Bid, so close to a place in the final itself, can make all from trap one. Guinness Kev's consistency makes him the biggest danger.

21:10 Mini Stayers

Aero Majestic would prove hard to beat if securing an early lead, but Blackrose Bulllet, who rattled home here last time and has taken a shine to this circuit, rates an intriguing rival.

21:25 Standard

A race that would grace any big race final, but Doctor Robert has proved hard to beat here recently and with an early lead not a necessity can prove too strong for well drawn Rookery Pedro.

Selections

Delwood Robbo 19:40

Westmead Shaw 20:35

Blackrose Boss 20:15

Doctor Robert 21:25

For more greyhounds betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/greyhound-racing/

Birmingham v Southampton

Just a month ago Birmingham were 14th in the table - four consecutive league victories later and they sit fourth. If you add in FA Cup successes against Wolves and Sheffield United, the Blues have won their last six and are unbeaten in 10 in all competitions.

They are the only team in the Championship protecting an undefeated home record, and have been scoring goals for fun: 20 in their last six games. The fact they are hosting Southampton is probably offering us slightly fatter odds than if they were playing at home to just about anyone else.

The Saints have stuttered slightly of late, but you still have to admire what has been an outstanding season for a side that, never forget, was in League One last season. The Saints topped the table from mid-September until late January, but eventually their run of two wins in seven league games took its toll. Nigel Adkins' side have won only one of their last five away from home, and their results on the road have not been outstanding: indeed, they have not won away to a top-half team this season. The South Coast side are worthy promotion contenders, but in their current form you have to back Brum.

Back Birmingham @ 2.16


Burnley v Peterborough

In early November, Peterborough were sitting just outside the play-off places after a solid start to the season built largely around their ability to score goals. But a run of just two wins in 12 has seen them slide down to 17th, and just recently, the goals have dried up as well. Posh have drawn a blank in three of their last four in all competitions, and you have to go back to early December for the last time they netted more than once in a game: for a side that managed 39 in its first 20 league games, that is a bit of a drought.

Burnley, on the other hand, are on a bit of a run. They have lost just once in their last seven league games, but more eye-catching is that Eddie Howe's side have kept six clean sheets in that period. They have let in just one goal in their last five league games at Turf Moor - the price for them to manage another shutout looks very tempting.

Back Burnley Clean Sheet @ 2.74


Bristol City v Leeds

I actually feel a bit sorry for Simon Grayson. There are teams doing far worse than Leeds whose managers have not even had a whiff of the sack, although clearly expectations are far higher at Elland Road. However, emotions aside, a run of two wins in eight league outings isn't great, and they have not won in their last four away games. Managerial departures always unsettle squads, because there will always be enough players who liked the outgoing gaffer regardless of what the boardroom thought. So, squad uncertainty and poor away form combine to present Bristol City with an excellent opportunity to ease their relegation fears.

The Robins were bottom in mid-October but under Derek McInnes they have slowly edged away from the drop zone, and are currently 19th and six points clear of the bottom three. They have won four of their last six at Ashton Gate, and have conceded only five goals in their last seven games.

Back Bristol City @ 2.52

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Statistics are part and parcel of the NFL - its lifeblood almost - but there are a lot out there and knowing which to hold onto and which to discard can open the path to riches. I've picked out some that could have a game changing impact on Super Bowl XLVI or at the very least make you consider your betting strategy. I'll be taking a look at the Specials markets tomorrow and some of the data here will have an impact on those markets also.

Super Bowl outsiders, the Giants, have been attracting the majority of punters' money and momentum has seen the handicap line decrease from -4 initially to -2.5.

Whilst some of that move is allied to analysts' perceptions of the two teams and their relative strengths and weaknesses another factor is the fact that the lower seeded team has dominated against the spread (ATS) over the past 15 years. Over the past 15 years, the higher seeded team has covered a grand total of one Super Bowl points spread, while the lower seeded team has covered 12, with a pair of pushes where neither side covered.

Also starting to be factored in is the Patriots dismal record in big pressure matches, in those last eight games they have covered the spread just once, a record that dates back to 2006.

Questions are also being asked about the relative strengths of the two team's schedules and without doubt New York had the much tougher road to travel this season, only four teams in the entire NFL had a schedule that was weaker than the Patriots. New York finished the regular season with the second ranked schedule. In their last dozen games, they've faced virtually every elite team in the league - these same Patriots along with the Eagles, Saints, Packers (twice), Cowboys (twice), Jets, Falcons and 49ers (twice).

Plenty has been made of the Patriots wanting to take their revenge on the Giants after being defeated in their last two encounters against New York. But wind the clock back four years and only 22 players remain from the rosters of the two teams that day, when 106 players were suited and active.

If, however, you are taking the Week 9 contest as a guide, the Giants winning 24-20, then there is a strong case for supporting the Patriots as in the Brady-Belichick era they are 43-13 when attempting to avenge a loss, clearly they are a team that makes good adjustments and use that time to prepare wisely. Expect the Giants to be faced with some new and different plays from the Patriots this Sunday. The G-Men would do well to prepare some new schemes and tricks themselves.

Another case can be made for the Patriots with some anti-Giants arguments. New York's secondary was not an area of strength at any point this season; a major reason why this defence was ranked 23rd in ypg allowed and 22nd in scoring this year. If the Giants pass rush doesn't reach Tom Brady on a consistent basis, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the NFL could have a field day. Let's not forget that Brady is coming off a below par showing against Baltimore, and he's a quarterback with a long history of strong bounce-back efforts.

Defences are sure to play a big part in deciding the destination of the Super Bowl, and both have come under scrutiny this year, the Patriots D looks poor on paper in terms of yardage conceded. But they only gave up 21 points per game during the regular season and were joint third in the league on takeaways with 34, so don't completely abandon them. Having said that the Giants are now fit and healthy and the defensive line trio of Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, with 30.5 sacks between them this season should pressure Brady all day long.

As with any Super Bowl, there's a case to be made for both teams. So far, punters have been making a much stronger case for the Giants but I think there's enough in these statistics to show that the game is very finely balanced on very thin margins.

For more Super Bowl betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/us-sports/nfl/super-bowl/