I checked antepost before  must have missed it or they've just put it up, either way it's good to see they've realised that there might actually be some interest in it.

http://www.hrnz.co.nz/news/2379-terror-heads-to-the-graveyard

Just read through all of this and some interesting banter. From what I saw on Saturday night, the two best runs were actually Restrepo and Caribbean Blaster. That is not to discount the runs of Terror To Love, Smolda and Im Victorious but the slow early pace in both races meant that it is hard to line them against the truly run Victorian heat.
NZ Heat: All that can be gleaned from that heat is that both horses are very fast, but we already knew that. 3000 3rd up is the query for Smolda but think he is potentially the best horse in the race whilst the query with Terror To Love is the travel factor although people seem to have forgotten that he put up a very good performance in last year's Inter final.
Syd Heats: Hard to say with wet track but on face value both favs were slightly disappointing. Expecting a fair bit of improvement in Beautide.
Melb Heat: Truly run and thought Restrepo was very good in running track record time. Think he will be a big player with right run but others who know the horse better than me are questioning his ability to run the 3000m. Thought Caribbean Blaster did a great job to do all the work and battle on very well down the straight, can win the final with the right breaks. Wartime Sweetheart got in because he was well driven whilst Abettorpunt is no there because he wasn't.
Qld Heat: Making up the numbers but I've got no problem with one of them getting through, creates extra interest and keeps the series alive in the mind of QLDers.
WA Heat: Im Victorious did a good job to run past Livingontheinterest given the sectionals. LOI put in a couple of average efforts a few runs back but his form at his last 3 starts (and a trial) has been up to his best. He run home in 55.3 and 27.0 to win at his previous start and that is simply as fast as he goes. Would need a miracle to place in the final. David Hercules again proved that he can't get around the last bend at GP. Woodley would have been better served sweating it out on the rails but there was no way the Hall brothers would have let him out, leaving him to run 3rd and he wouldn't have got a wildcard in front of the obvious selections in Caribbean Blaster and The Gold Ace.

I'm a traditionalist and prefer the old format but have realised it is highly unlikely to ever get back to that so I now just enjoy this format for what it is. I really enjoyed the coverage on Saturday night and looking forward to the final but find it hard to bet with confidence considering that the final threw up more questions than answers.

Excellent summation Sinbad, nice to read a post from someone who knows what they're talking about.

First post for a while

Beautide will win for fun, only concerned with kiwis as he is simply better than other Aussie runners. Have a look at his heat, every other runner on pegs (3rd and 4th favs) got beaten 40m and they were decent horses having soft runs (Suave Stuey and Two Eye). Going to finish up getting $5 I reckon about what I think is close to a dead set moral, maybe even more if draws car park.

Thought Beautide was superior to both C Blaster, Restrepo in Vic Cup after being stuck behind a road block in Terrorway out wide and struggling on final turn which he always does hence his love affair with Menangle. He still ran last mile in 1.53.1 in Vic Cup out 4&5 wide from 500 which compares very favourably to sectionals some are raving about from last Sat. Plus I would like to think that if Beau led he would beat one Wartime Sweetheart by more than 8m no matter where WS sat

Sure he had a soft run in Miracle Mile but was 15m in front 50m after post, IV trailed him all the way and would have needed a tow rope to keep up (has a decent driver change now but surely not worth that much)

Some Tassie bias maybe but be fair, it is impossible to tip any Australian trained horse to beat him home. Lump it on Beau, save on kiwis and maybe think of an inplay on the Blaster if they go ballastic

Think race is quite simple actually

Just checked not one word in the stewards about Binskin geeing his horse to keep at beautide when they were already going quick, thought there was a rule you had to drive to fulfill your best possible position, clearly he didn't drive to fulfill his best possible position. Obviously then they'll have no problem if livingontheinterest happened to race up mid race to put the pressure on the leader while victorious sits back in the field in the final.
Thought it was pretty ordinary what occurred in that heat and it certainly wasn't a great look in an event that's supposed to showcase the sport.

i agree with you secret savings...crazy odds for a horse with his 3000 record

Hayler i find your post quite interesting but a tad selective. If you watch the last 200m of the following races, Vic Cup, Ballarat Cup, Hunter Cup and NZ Cup and use the one constant in all of those - Christen Me, its pretty hard to make a case that Beautide has the 'others' covered easily.

He ran home evenly with CM in the Vic Cup, certainly not better but so did Restrpo in the Ballarat Cup and Carabean Blaster in the Hunter. Now TTL made a mess of him in the NZ cup so it points to group of horses that have very little between them with the right run.

Beautdie has proven to be more versatile than the above mentioned to his credit but yet to see him over a trip. He's a great miler but great miler's in recent times have not necessarily made great 2 milers and vice versa

i think he's unders at anything less than $6 pre barrier draw but love the difference in opinion - thats what its all about!

It would be if trained in Qld or WA

that is some list uncleee lol. one of them couldnt buy a winner at the moment.

when it is too good to be true it is.

absolute matter of time for the red army to get a holiday

Pk not many winning chances for mine after the draw, Beautide on top just ahead of Smolda, Victorious is going to need to luck and may have to kick up and try to lead to avoid being buried providing that they're not going crazy early but he is a chance if the breaks go its way but is going to need everything to go right to win. Best roughies Keyang Cullen and Seel N Print.

For A Reason can't possibly win for mine, retention barn may potentially affect the form of some horses also not necessarily for any reasons related to cheating either as some horses may be used to being out in a paddock most of the day or going to the beach or whatever and may resent being boxed with a number of other horses.

If only Keeyang Steamer never went sore would of won

AD - while I agree with that statement in general, I do think getting buried deep along the pegs [ a la Im Victorious ] could be very tricky to overcome, even over nearly two miles.
 
For the record, I think The Gold Ace will be the leader for the most part - he will work over soon after the two speedsters in the middle ping out. I think both Keayang & Mach B will cross IV, but not Livingonthint. CaribbB will be content to amble to the breeze in his own time, expecting either a Smolda, Beautide or TTL to come around in the middle. After that ... well then it gets serious :-)
Overall I think the market is about right - the TABs have the topweight a bit short, and they did have the back marker too long.

Good luck to all in a pretty open contest, including our mate Elsu, who isn't drawn that bad really.

cannot agree more about Im Victorious.  could not keep up with beautide late in the miracle mile.  clearly a fair few that are just better than him and the draw is fools gold for those who think it is good!

I should add I am knocking any of these horses, every one of them is outstanding in their own right. But once they are there, the debate and assessment becomes relative

i agree AD - draw is almost completely irrelevant and the price of IV is ridiculous. Do i even see a tab move from 4.6 into 4.5 ?? when there is over 500 available at 7s on betfair? - probably speaks volumes of the type that have supported it.

Craig no doubt restrepo is a completely different horse now that he used to be, but then again, how many stewart trained 'older' horses are sit sprinters? Anyone who can sit 3wide no cover and win a ballarat cup of run the fastest ever leader time at Melton prob can't be a sit sprinter as well - but we know that, go back and watch shep cup or any other race he has been bottled away.

What really irks me is the lazy journalism that goes into one of the biggest harness racing days of the year. The last 26 'news stories' posted on the web have nothing to do with the inter or chariots or trot race or derby etc - instead are just the publishing of some email that has probably circulated its way around the office.

And the 'form experts' add no value whatsoever to the content of the day giving their 'opinions' on whats going to happen. Punters don't give a rats about their thought, they want to make up their own, and the best information is first hand from trainers and drivers about their thoughts etc. Yet i have probably heard maybe two interviews with trainers and drivers (not counting them pushing the microphone into their face after the barrier draw) in a whole week lead up. It really is pathetic

I find TTL pretty tricky to assess - he is either a $6 shot, or a $26 shot - but he does have a sensation record in races over 3000m.
INCLUDING last year's ID where he worked around them to sit parked out for the last mile in 1:55.9 - and beat home ALL the runners who are backing up tomorrow, only getting rolled by Quinny by 7m, who got the best cart up in history ... thank you Mach Alert. Maybe they find the trick to it this time ?

Beautide could be a query over this trip, given this campaign has been almost exclusively mile racing. Hutchy says they ALL get ANY distance - but not many of the US imports of days gone by adapt immediately to 2700m and more ? Beautide is racing like a world class miler - extra strong from start to finish like they do in the US. I'm not saying he can't - just that it could be possible - we just don't know yet.

So if pressed I'm potting Im Victorious, Caribbean Blaster & The Gold Ace - pro the two Kiwi qualifiers - and respecting the three inside the back : Beautide, Restrepo & For A Reason. Keayang the roughie who could fill a First4 slot ?

Yeah - I think plenty of chances :-(

Good luck with your own picks - I'm not trying to talk you out of them.

Don't think Keayang is strong enough to be a real factor over this trip.

I am very comfortable that Smolda is the horse to beat. Has a great record at Menangle including a Derby win and a Chariots second to Christen Me, and has done everything he possibly could have in his two runs back. Third up is obviously an ask but he looks dialed in, and we know he is a super staying type. Top pick.

Beautide deserves to be the principle danger, what more could you have asked from him of late, has owned this track and is very adaptable in the run. I take your point Trotman about him being some question mark at the trip, but no reason he won't be as effective either.

The other two principles are Carribean Blaster, who is simply elite when he gets to this sort of distance range and has been great in the big ones this season (Vic Cup/Hunter Cup/Ballarat Cup), and Terror To Love who I just refuse to take on in a race that is ideally suitable IF he produces at Menangle. I am still not sure it is conclusive yet that he can't go at the track, and he becomes second pick if he produces.

Next best is Restrepo, who I suspect has to revert to being taken care of early over the 3000m.

Let's when has he ever raced in Victoria?