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These 260 comments are related to the topic:
AFL Round 13
AFL Round 13
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Replies: 260
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Honestly BJT, you seem to be having a dig for the sake of it. I get the impression you are smart enough not to look at a market and think 'I will back this team at 1.1 to 1.2'. I am quite sure you would not look at the other side of the market and think 'I will back this team if their price is between 5 and 10'
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Ok, keep teaching me...
I will start... The opposite in a 100% market to 1.10 is not 10.00. It is 11.00... Yeah? 90.90909090909% of the market is taken up at 1.10. 11.00 gives 9.09090909% of the market. Keeping up? I mean, I am trying to keep up with your lesson.... So a 100% market, is 1.10/11.00 1.20 gives you 83.3333333% of the market while 6.00 gives you .16.66666667% of the market. Still with me? So your whole argument about us not having a clue about pricing goes to water when you don't know how to even make a 100% market. Yeah? The difference between North at 6 to North at 11 is 7.58% of the market share. Nobody claimed 1.10 to 1.20 was 5%. What I said (you still with me?) is that a + or - 5% margin of error on market share certainly covers 1.10 - 1.20. In fact, you will see (or I will work it out again for you) is 7.58% of market share. 90.909 - 83.333... So while you can argue that I have no idea, I can certainly put out a 100% market that really is a 100% market. You oh wise one, claim to know what it is but have no idea how they come about. You do it your way, I will do it mine. |
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Now your trying to be clever AD you knew exactly what I was saying, at the absolute most in my opinion they should be 1.20 against North who are gone and are nowhere near the top contenders and make no mistake Adelaide is one of the legitimate top contenders. !.10 is my price in reality for Adelaide and I will be betting accordingly, I was being gracious and allowing for my assessment to be slightly off so don't give me this 1.10 -1.20 smart arsse craap. I am well aware of the difference between 1/5 and 1/10.
Some of the markets put up this season have been that far off and proven to be that far off it's a joke and this is another case of the market being so far from reality it's embarrassing for those who created those odds in my opinion, I'm not complaining mind you just means a better price for me about the absolute good things of the round. I vehemently disagree with a number of racing markets as well and more often than not I have been proven time and time again to be correct. I make plenty of mistakes as well but I am a good judge but at times not a great punter so am from from perfect. |
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That should read am far from
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I prepare markets to 100% everyday smart arse.
If you think that tolerance level can possibly be successful you are kidding yourself. I am talking about the decimal shift in price which you well know. So, do you approach a market saying you will back North in a two horse race if their price is within a $5 decimal range do you? |
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You prepare markets to 100% every day?
Or you thought you did? Pretty clear you don't if you don't know how it works. |
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But whatever. I am only a newcomer to betting. Haven't even been a member here for 8 years. I am only new at 7.5 years here so I have no idea and really appreciate comments from others saying I am kidding myself in thoughts of being successful....
Please advise me more.... |
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lol
You know full well I just threw in a post quickly and incorrectly. It seems you won't answer my question that I have asked twice, instead trying to belittle what I do. You know it is a ridiculous assertion to assess the rest of the book in that way. I will take your refusal to address that question as the answer |
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You were, as per usual, the one being smart AD. I was making an allowance for not everyone seeing the market exactly the same as me but if adelaide don't firm substantially from 1.45 that just goes to show yet again that the majority of punters are very stupid at times. The absolute best price they should be in my opinion is 1.20 and like I said they're in reality a $1.10 shot for mine and I will be backing them accordingly at the massive value that is on offer.
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That's fair enough LE you have an opinion on the game that is fine, and you may well be quite right, but in the last couple of weeks you have made a few posts attacking people regarding pricing when you don't frame markets yourself, which seems very odd to me
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Take it however you like. At the end of the day it is automatic for me to know what the inverse of 1.10 is, and it is new to you.
I never once said what % I use for margin of error, but there is for the majority a figure. |
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I haven't attacked anyone on pricing, to the best of my knowledge, I have however voiced an opinion about games there is a big difference between that and attacking someone, I don't attack Snake I am extremely interested in his opinion and enjoy debating with him.
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New
 You again refuse to answer the question because it doesn't suit you to say I am correct Not worth bothering with you if you can't answer the point |
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Fair enough LE
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So don't bother with me. lol Who the hell are you anyway? Just some arrogant name on a forum trying to belittle anybody that doesn't operate the same as them.
You are not above me, so quit with the arrogant bullshit. Bother with me? rotflmfao |
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Honestly AD who have I attacked on pircing I would be interested to know as I can't remember doing so. The only people I have attacked are the odds makers themselves I agreed with snake about someone leaking the prices beforehand that is patently clear from what I've seen after he pointed it out and and I did attack whoever was leaking the prices but that's about it I would think.
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AD u make 100% markets everyday yet i seem to recall that u dont bet on football......is that correct?
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Again you won't address the question, 5 posts in a row now. Gee I wonder why?
I am not bothering to go back through threads LE but a fortnight ago you had a crack at someone and quoted a similarly large range on an odds on pop which would have had a huge impact on the other side of the book. It just seemed you had a opinion based on your assessment but didn't know how to convert that to a market and seemed odd you were at odds with someone over pricing. Anyhow I can't be bothered with this anymore, BJT knows all so ask him |
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He makes 100% markets where 1.20/5.00 is a 100% market......
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No I don't bet on football Logroller
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lmfao. You don't bet on football and you are giving advice for people to quit because they disagree with you? Oh dear.
You don't know what 100% means, you don't bet on football, yet giving advice on how people should make a market on something you don't even bet on...   |
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pretty sure that was the crows v freo game you're talking about and they won comfortably in the end after being in control for much of the game and then challenged strongly by freo before kicking away again guess what I collected according to my evaluation of the price
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Lets
even you must agree just because you collect doesnt mean you was right regarding the price of the game |
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That is 8 posts without addressing my question BJT, good job, we all know you are agree but can't say it
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So, do you approach a market saying you will back North in a two horse race if their price is within a $5 decimal range do you?
Guessing that is the question. No I don't. |
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Really ridiculous question by the way with so many variables to render it obsolete. But if it is that important to you for some strange reason, there you go....
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Nick for a quarter freo got their act together and played well while the crows went to sleep. I was making a class assessment, there is no reason why you can't apply class to football as you do at the races or at the trots, plus I managed to lay off at 1.05 or something similar during that game so yes I would argue seeing I could do that, that my pricing was in fact correct how else could I have laid off at that price otherwise.
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ok ill take on board
strange answer |
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You need to use that emotican in every post smacks of desperation to get a point across.
Not sure why you are on a tirade when you agree with me in principle |
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LE that means your overall opinion of the game was correct, it doesn't mean your conversion to a price was correct
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one thing that is right imo, adelaide will no doubt start 1/3 or shorter, ffs who is going to back north at 11/4
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Well my balance after that game was finished, despite through my own negligence of not getting on for what I wanted too, said that my assessment was correct and in the end rightly or wrongly that is the only thing that matters whether you win or lose you can be lucky or unlucky but that doesn't change whatever the final result is.
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Wow, this got willing, didnt it!
BJT is obtuse for the sake of it. I have ceased to bother with the guts of his posts because he spews sh!t at every turn. Regardless, AD is absolutely correct and you can argue all you like. You cannot assess a range between 1.10 and 1.20. It's completely unsound. In my own case I look for a 20% overlay to bet. So 5.00-6.00 would be acceptable or inversely, 1.20.125, the bet occurring on the upper end and no bet towards the lower end. BJT, really mate. You say that you would not want to argue with you. It isn't because you are always right. It is because your ego won't ever allow you to be wrong. |
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Snake were you referring to me or BJT? or have you given me up as a lost cause?
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Because in this whole thread, there are 2 people that are going around telling people to quit betting because they do things differently to themselves.
You say that it isn't worth arguing with people that don't listen, when the reality is people are listening, it is you that isn't. This is the whole point of most of the thread: Anyhow I can't be bothered with this anymore, BJT knows all so ask him The reality is, nearly everybody in here apart from you and snake are suggesting that there are different ways to go about finding value, punting in general, whatever the case may be. I don't argue against your way, I could care less. But the reality is IT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY. To come across so arrogant that you are telling people they will not be successful if they don't listen to you, does not mean that people aren't listening to you, it means you aren't listening to them. Simple as that. And yes, the reality is, no argument will ever be won in regards to "I got the price right", because the fact is by giving one team a price, you are giving the opposition a chance to win the game. Give 1 team a 90% chance of winning, you are saying you can see the opposition winning 10 games out of every 100 played under those circumstances. The fact that the 90% won, cannot be converted to price after the game is played because the reality is they won 100% because only 1 event can take place. You can be justified after the game by being pretty close considering how the game went, but can't prove your price was right against such people... eg, I rated Saints 1.80 against Adelaide and I feel justified in rating them so highly given the final result, but they still lost, so people rating them 10.00 can still claim they were justified since they got paid off. Snake. Just because you choose a figure of 20% doesn't mean that anybody that plays higher is wrong. How does it? |
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so maybe we can take this away then..........there are always 2 markets to be considered when punting on AFL, the one the bookies will put up and where than will go, and then your own market set to 100% for punting purposes
thats a nice peace pipe aaaaaaaaa |
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Lets
thats the dumbest post i have seen on here By your thinking if i back 1.10 pop and it wins by nose my assesment that it was value was right because it won Your a simpleton |
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I don't wanna argue about calculations here. Find another thread (or make one)
I am loving this Essendon price. Has anyone actually watched them and Fremantle the last 2 games? There's the overlay of the week now. Freo is out to dumb odds. Bombers do not deserve favouritism at Subi on their current form. |
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BJT, stop hijacking threads with your crap. You are a bitter, twisted, argumentative **** and I am done with you. Go away.
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Go away? Who the hell are you? Bitter and twisted? Because I don't blindly sit by watching you talk to people the way you do?
I can assure you I am anything but bitter. If you don't want to argue about calculations, why do you start by arguing about calculations? Then stop when somebody shows you up by making personal attacks on them based on nothing more than arrogance? You rate something at 1.05 you will happily back it at 1.06. Others won't. Simple as that. |