Alex69

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get,” said Forrest Gump, who is my third favourite film character after Ralph ‘Papa’ Thorson and Nigel Tufnel. To be fair to Gump, he was only paraphrasing his mother and he was a credit to himself, his family and his country.

We could all learn a lot from him.

Betting, however, is nothing like a box of chocolates. You either win, in which case you can eat what you like, or you lose, in which case it’s back on the salad cream sandwiches. I don’t know about you, my followers, but I’ve never had a salad cream-flavoured truffle. It’s doubtful even a certain Mr W Wonka would create such an abomination.

I digress. Tonight’s darts offers some incredible money-making opportunities. This evening, I have a four-fold for the brave, a single for the value merchants and a tip top trade for the more experienced punters who like nothing better than to protect their investment.   

My brief assessment of each match is as follows...

I can’t remember Wade being in such a bad run of form for quite some time and his body language over the last three weeks suggests he wants to be anywhere other than stepping up to an oche in front of thousands of inebriated fans. Anderson, while underachieving in the last fortnight, will have been practising like crazy to put this right and I believe he’ll have enough to prevail over a disinterested Wade.

I simply think Whitlock has more desire to win than most these days and has enough in his locker (alongside possibly a can of Fosters, a few shrimps and a worn-out beard trimmer) to shade it past Jenkins. The league table, and the previous result between the pair, backs up this assertion.

While there have been some classics between Taylor and Van Barneveld over the years and the Dutchman has returned to his relaxed, composed ways of late, Taylor is back in cruise control after his week one aberration against Lewis and I expect The Power to add another victory to his amazing career record.

My most controversial selection of the night is Webster to beat Lewis. Both players have hit the heights and plumbed the depths during the course of the 2011 Premier League which makes this match a tough one to call – and a fine one to trade on. Home advantage counted for nothing the other week for Anderson, but I have a strong feeling Webster will rise to the occasion in Cardiff and spring a surprise.

Fourfold
In summary, if you’re not available to sit and watch the darts, try an ante-post fourfold (to be found in the ‘acca’ menu) on Anderson, Whitlock, Taylor and Webster – but only if the odds are 15.0 or better  as this reflects their individual prices. Otherwise, back each one separately with a proportion of your winnings from the previous fixture – this way you don’t necessarily have to go ‘all in’. Furthermore, you could still trade in-running if you reckon the markets might not go your way.

Single
If you’re more of a singles man, then your money should be on Simon Whitlock, as he provides the best value. Value isn’t as nebulous a concept as you may think. I’d take Whitlock to win five out of every six versus Jenkins, so by this logic his odds of around 1.8 are favourable.

Trade
Try laying Lewis to back in-running. He’s odds-on to win, which is fair enough as he’s the World Champion, but I can see Webster coming out of the traps like a greyhound with amphetamines in his Chum tonight. Lewis could feasibly provide a stirring performance after the break to snatch a draw or a win, as he has done before, but I expect his price to drift in the first few legs as Webster takes a stranglehold on the game early doors. Having said all that, this is the last match of the night and with the first three tips safely landed, it might be just as well to cash out, relax and enjoy the champers.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: Always look to protect your stake by judicious trading.

HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. Today I’ve prepared a few notes on trading for you, my loyal followers, in the expectation that you all ultimately enjoy a lifestyle as exhilarating, fulfilling and generally spectacular as mine. Sorry it’s a little brief, but I’ve just had an unexpected visit from a heavy-drinking friend of mine, Alf ‘The Cistern’ Kenilworth, who needs some advice as to which roadside assistance organisation to join.

I digress. Trading is where you can make money without having any liability, in other words if you’re sufficiently cunning and quick-witted then you can back a competitor to win at high odds, lay it at the same liability as your bet stake at lower odds and end up with a free bet. If the market shifts enough, you can cover all eventualities and be guaranteed a profit regardless of the eventual outcome. This method of betting and laying sounds incredibly complicated, but given the right market situation it’s actually a breeze.

Here’s how it works...
Race A – Six dogs at 6pm. By 5:50 a few pounds have been exchanged and you decide to try and back, for example, Doggie One at 10/1 – or 11.0 as it would be quoted in decimals. Your £2 (minimum stake on Betfair, let’s not go too mad for the time being) is matched, so if it wins you stand to make a £20 profit, plus of course your original £2. If it loses, you lose your £2 stake. Lay the same dog for £2, however, at, say 8/1 (9.0 decimal odds) and suddenly you’ve ‘locked in’ your money. If it wins, you take the difference between 10/1 and 8/1 (2/1) so you win £4, plus your original £2 stake. If your dog loses, you lose nothing, because you have traded out.

Taking the market fluctuations and stakes to a slightly higher level (believe me, it does happen), perhaps you might back Bitch Six this time at 15/1 for £2, then lay it at 8/1 when the market has moved, for £3. Your winnings on Bitch Six would be £30 (£2 bet x 15 = £30) - (£3 lay x 8 = £21) = £9. As you’ve laid it for more money at lesser odds, however, if it didn’t win, you’d still take £1 profit on each of the other dogs, regardless of which one won, plus of course your original £2 stake. In other words, a completely free, no lose bet with no liability.     

To sum up, if the above conditions are met, this is how your betting sheet will look -
Doggie One £1
Mutt Two £1
Pooch Three £1
Hound Four £1
Puppy Five £1
Bitch Six £9

The same style of trading can be applied to any sport, regardless of the number of potential outcomes. Obviously, the market has to move in the way you want it to, but there is free money to be made if you look hard enough for it. Markets fluctuate like crazy when betting goes in running – i.e. the race or match is started and is in progress - and if certain conditions are met and you know what you’re doing then free money can be yours.

Take a football match where the home side has a slight edge, priced up at 2.14 home win, 3.4 draw and 4.1 away win before the kick-off. If you strongly believe that the home side is likely to score first, but might not necessarily hang on to win, then you could perhaps back the home win before kick-off at £10 on 2.14, then when they score and the price comes in to around 1.4, you could lay them at that price for £12 for example. This would leave your sheet looking like this – home £6.60, draw £2, away £2 – with no liability. Free money all around.

Even on matches where there are only two outcomes, such as tennis and snooker, there are rich pickings to be made providing the circumstances are right. Both aforementioned sports can fluctuate massively when in running, with the match favourite often changing a number of times as the game progresses. Simply back one player at a high price, then lay, but for slightly more money, at a lower price, thus locking in a liability-free profit regardless of the outcome. A lot can happen in five sets of tennis – even more in a best of 35 frame snooker match.

I must dash now, to sort Alf out with some recovery advice and perhaps a little gin sling to help clear his mind. Once I’ve got the money he owes me, I’ll start working on some more Premier League Darts tips, which I’ll duly publish on 31 March.

Remember: There’s a world of difference – and an enormous pile of cash - between a mug punter and a talented trader.

HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. Some of my followers are interested in knowing why they should lay odds, rather than back. Laying can be as much fun as betting, and as profitable, in the right circumstances.

A lay bet means that you effectively become the bookmaker (without necessarily having to don a ropey sheepskin coat) and decide which odds you want to offer to potential punters. In a football match between United and City, for example, you’d make a profit if you laid City and the match ended in a United win or a draw. If you laid United, but City won or it was a draw then you’d win. If you laid the draw and either of the two sides won then you’d pick up your winnings.

In “two outcome only” events such as the major knock-out tournaments tennis, darts, snooker and so on where the match can only end with a winner and a loser, laying is slightly different as effectively all you do is pick who you think will lose rather than who will win. If you pick the loser correctly, you win the money. In events with large numbers of competitors, such as greyhound racing (six) or horse racing (up to 40) each dog or horse you lay means you are effectively backing all the others to win.

Choosing the right lay bet is every bit as scientific as choosing the right win bet. One question that is often raised by people interested in laying but not sure why they should pick a lay bet instead of a win bet, especially in a one-on-one contest, is “Why should I pick someone to lose, rather than someone to win?” The simple answer is, “It’s all about liability.”

Your liability is the amount of money you stand to lose if your selection is unsuccessful. If you back something to win at 2/1, for example, and your stake is £10, your liability is also £10. If you win, you get £30 (£20 winnings, plus your original £10 stake returned to you). If you lose, you lose £10. If you were to lay something at 2/1, then to win £10 your liability would be £20. In other words, you’d stand to lose £20 if you got your lay bet wrong – i.e. the person/dog/horse you reckoned would lose actually won. If you got it right, however, and your assessment that the person/dog/horse would lose came true, then the £20 you put up in the first place would be returned to you, along with the £10 that some poor mug punter had thrown away in the hope that he’d be taking the loot.

It’s ‘cheaper’ to lay an odds-on favourite than it is to lay a rank outsider. To lay a 1/10 shot in an attempt to win £10 would only cost you a liability of £1, whereas to lay a 10/1 shot in an attempt to win £10 would cost you a liability of £100. Laying is only currently possible on betting exchange sites, such as Betfair, where you are going up against other punters, rather than bookies.

We'll chat a bit more about combining both 'disciplines' i.e. backing and laying on the same event - which can be done ante-post and in-running, soon. Until then, my followers, enjoy your punting & may lady luck be on your side - or better still in your bed, on your lap or in the kitchen preparing you a hearty meal.

Remember: No system is fool-proof, but only a fool ignores wise advice.

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. Once again I’m banging the drum for the draw, or certainly trading on it, and with the Barney/Anderson clash being the closest match-up tonight my recommendation is to trade on the draw in this fixture. Here’s how you should go about it.

Start off by backing the draw before the off at around 5.3 – if it drops to below 5, forget it as that’s poor value based on what’s happened over the last few weeks.

Imagine you stuck £10 on the draw at 5.3 – you immediately stand to win £43 – or lose £10. What you need to do now is put in a lay on the draw of £26 at 2.0. This way, if it’s a draw you’re guaranteed £17 & if either of the players win you get £16. It’s a risk-free bet – as soon as the £26 draw lay is matched at 2.0 of course.
Obviously, depending on the size of your wallet you need to pro rata up or down accordingly.

If your original stake on the draw was £2, your lay stake would need to be £5.20, which would cover you in exactly the same proportions (£3.40 or £3.20 guaranteed).

Conversely, if you put £20 on the draw you’d have to then lay off at 2.0 with £52. Your winnings would then of course be doubled as per the first example.

NOTE: make sure you click the At In-Play ‘Keep’ button so you don’t have to panic once the match is in progress.

As for the other three fixtures, expect some one-sided encounters as Whitlock beats Webster, Lewis beats Jenkins and Taylor beats Wade. In terms of trading, Lewis v Jenkins might be the one as I’d expect Lewis to start sluggishly before getting into the groove. Try a lay of Lewis to kick off with, then backing him in-running to ensure a free bet or a win regardless of the outcome.

Remember: If your lay stake is the same as your back stake, you’ll ‘trade out’ for a free bet, whereas if your lay stake is slightly higher than your back stake, you’ll get a guaranteed win, providing of course Lewis drifts after the first two or three legs.

NOTE: Back to lay if you think the original price is too high and will contract in-running, but lay to back if you think the original price is too low and will expand or ‘go out’ in-running.

Good luck and happy trading!

Remember: Always try and protect your investment by correctly predicting the way the market will move in-running.

HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. It’s easy to win money if you understand a) the market on which you’re betting and b) how to ensure you have a risk-free punt. Here are some handy hints for you all ahead of my next few tips which will all involve trading out for risk-free bets – and in some instances guaranteeing income regardless of the outcome. You will notice that the ‘cons’ of betting in running match the pros, but that is only if you’re an amateur punter who is constantly betting in a rush or letting your heart rule your head. Follow the guidelines below and in the course of the next few days I’ll show you some ‘real life, real time’ examples of how to protect your investment and enjoy risk-free betting.

Betting in running – Pros
Lots and lots of free lucre can be won while betting in running – if you’ve researched your event properly that is. Markets move like crazy until the race or match starts – if betting in running is available, the markets keep on moving right until the end of the race or match. Knowing when to place your bet, therefore, is just as important as knowing which type of bet to place and which event/team/horse/dog to bet on. In some instances it is possible to ‘trade out’ and have a free bet or even cover all options with a small profit on each, regardless of the outcome. The rule of thumb regarding the timing of your bet is fairly straightforward.
Be in full possession of the facts before you click your mouse. Know exactly who is playing or who is running and, using your successful paper trade spreadsheet as reference, place your bet when the market conditions you have concluded are the best ones show themselves.
Tip: pick your BACK odds and your LAY odds ahead of the event, whether you're backing to lay (i.e. expecting the person/team you've backed to roar into an early lead) or laying to back (i.e. expecting the person/team you've laid to go behind early doors).

Betting in running – Cons
Never bet in running when you aren’t watching what you’re betting on live, because otherwise all you’re doing is making a selection based purely on the odds rather than what you should be basing your selection on – inside knowledge, information you have gathered, fact and science.
Think about it – a “blind” bet or a lay on an in-running market is throwing away money and trusting to luck. If you don’t mind throwing your money away, simply make regular donations to a charity of your choice. By betting in running on something you’re not watching you’re not in full possession of the facts. Plus, beware ‘live’ internet feeds as these can be several seconds, or even minutes behind. A football team may be in front, for example, but might have had a man sent off. 
All live betting should be done impartially and with a clear head. The reasons for this are many and varied, with some of the primary ones as follows.

Be honest with yourself when you answer the following three questions.
1) Do you watch live sporting events accompanied by a pint or two beforehand or during?
2) When you watch a sporting event are you supporting one of the teams or competitors for reasons outside the fact that they are statistically better than their opposition?
3) When you watch live sport are you with people who have partisan opinions about the teams or individuals competing?
If you can honestly say no to all three, then you might, just might, have a tiny chance of placing a successful in-running bet on a live event. Just be wary of the pitfalls. You’re more likely to place a successful bet on an event that you’ve given a lot of advance thought and consideration to.
In summary, a bet placed after a good few hours of careful, impartial research with a clear head is more likely to boost your wallet than a hastily thrown-on wager on a whim because you’ve been carried away with the emotion, the spectacle and the atmosphere – and you’ve had a beer.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: It’s all well and good enjoying a glass of champers here and there, but only do this after you’ve won.

IT'S A… it’s a… it’s a… it's a sin. No it’s not. It’s a bit of harmless fun.

Gambling, that is.

We’re not all as rich as we’d like and we haven’t got a bottomless pit of cash (although, to be brutally honest, I virtually have). Spending money on gambling, however, is often seen as a massive sin. Next time someone harps on about what a ‘waste of money’ gambling is and how you’d be much better saving it or spending it ‘more wisely’, show them this. All prices are accurate-ish circa March 2011.

What can £100 buy you nowadays?

33 pints of beer - the equivalent of at least four hangovers and an increase in waist size, baggy eyes and a red nose
17 packets of cigarettes - not that good for you the last time my butler ‘Daft’ Frankie Johnson looked – especially in the lung region
10 CDs – how many of these are you still going to be listening to in three months’ time?
2.5 tickets to a Premiership football match (unless you live in London)
1.5 meals out – didn’t much care for the starter/the house wine was a bit too dry/that waitress was well miserable
1 posh jumper/jacket - like, how often are you really going to wear it?

Alternatively…

50 £2 bets perhaps, where you could easily double, triple or quadruple your cash and spend the winnings whichever way you like?
20 £5 bets, see above
10 £10 bets, see above
Etc etc etc

Do you like the sound of making some more cash, followers? I’ll post some more tasty tips – and a few words on protecting your investment (i.e. effectively getting a ‘risk free’ bet) too, very soon.

Until then, good luck & happy punting!

Remember: It’s no good having balls bigger than King Kong if your next meal’s a bottle of meths.

HELLO, good afternoon and welcome to my blog. Having had to give, albeit regrettably, one of my people in the know his concrete slippers yesterday evening, I’m relying on my own instincts tonight ahead of tonight’s darts matches. It’s week six of the Premier League Darts and we still haven’t had a draw. We haven’t had a whitewash yet either and while an 8-0 is highly unlikely I have a sneaky feeling The Power may come close. The big NAP selection might come as a surprise to you, my loyal followers, but Taylor looked as if he was functioning closer to his imperious best last week in defeating erstwhile table-topper Gary Anderson, so a ‘dutch’ of Taylor 8-1 and 8-2 over Whitlock should pay out at odds of at least 17/1 and that’s a corking bet, especially given that you can cover your stake in running if you don’t want to leave yourself any liability.

Jenkins v Wade
Jenkins produced some amazing arrows last week to hammer Webster, who had looked like a world-beater the week before, so on that basis this match looks the toughest to call. I’d advise backing the draw with a view to trade out in-running here as we’re still awaiting the first tied match of the Premier League 2011.

Barney v Webster
Despite looking like he doesn’t want to be there half the time, Barney has the ability to thump Webster this evening. Whether or not he’ll rise to the occasion, however, is a different matter as the Dutchman seems to have problems motivating himself these days. Webster, on the other hand, will be ruing his poor performance against ‘The Bull’ last week and will give Barney a close game. I expect Van Barneveld to shade it, but again backing the draw with a view to a trade seems the safest option.

Whitlock v Taylor
The Power beat Whitlock in the 2010 World Championship final and I fully expect him to repeat this feat tonight. While Taylor’s win over Anderson last week was a gritty, battling performance rather than an annihilation, I believe he’s approaching his best, while Whitlock – a talented player himself – hasn’t quite got used to the Premier League as yet. The crowd will be on the Australian’s side, that’s for sure, but this will only make Taylor try harder. Back The Power here.

Anderson v Lewis
Anderson, desperate to show that he’s put the World Championship final behind him, will be looking to crush Lewis tonight in front of his home crowd. It won’t be easy for Anderson as Lewis has improved immensely in terms of holding it together in front of big crowds since his flaky days of 2008 and 2009, but the Flying Scotsman has performed superbly for the last few weeks and I’m confident he can shade it 8-6 or 8-5 tonight. Back Anderson.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: While Wagon Wheels and Creme Eggs are much smaller these days, think of how many you’ll be able to scoff with your winnings.

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. Apologies for not blogging for quite some time, but I’ve been zealously scouring my contact list for inside information, like a furious domestic assistant slaving over accumulated oven grime. Once my hangover had subsided, that is.

My various people in the know, or ‘sherpas’ as I like to call them, have supplied me with a barrel-load of intriguing information that should prove decisive over the next few days when it comes to picking winners. While it would be churlish of me to mention any names – such as ‘Happy’ Larry Troose, ‘Pandemonium’ Lionel Rogers and Tommy ‘The Pigeon’ Forsythe - my associates have come up with enough in-depth information to give Deep Blue an inferiority complex.

I was quite relieved when all my people in the know arrived at my castle in Southern Spain with more than a few tasty morsels of knowledge, so I could re-focus on the task in hand – sobering up and winning some more cash for the weekend’s frivolities. I’d been on a three-day session in the posh part of Marbella with an old university friend of mine, Nobby, and at ten to ten last night my stomach simply gave way. I was quick to blame a bad paella for my projectile vomit the likes of which hasn’t been seen since The Exorcist, but I have to be honest with you, my followers, that I’d had a skinful and a tactical puke was the only option. As you can imagine, I soon recovered and was quickly downing sangria and absinthe, dentist chair-style, for a daft laugh.

I digress. Based on the information supplied by my crack team of sherpas around the world, the tip I have for this evening is as follows.

BACK: Stalybridge to beat Corby Town in the Blue Square North.

While there isn’t a great deal to choose between the two sides per se, the home outfit (the only ‘Celtic’ I’ve ever seen who play their home games in blue) are bang in form while Corby are performing about as well as a trouser press that’s just been dismantled by Alan Partridge.

Pile in, my loyal followers. Stalybridge are better than evens at present, which is seriously good value.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: Never wear the thin end of your old school tie

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. I once had a chat with Midge Ure, the cheery little Scottish fellow from new wave/electronic outfit Ultravox, and he stated: “We’d never even been to Vienna.”

To be fair to Midge, Warren, Billy and Chris, they did a tremendous job of evoking the atmosphere of one of central Europe’s most decadent cities. I’ve never been to Vienna either, as it’s notoriously full of secret agents – most of whom are disguised as tour guides, bar tenders and museum curators – besides, I can’t abide those frightful Viennese whirls.

I have, however, been to Manchester - and the Arena - therefore I feel perfectly positioned to offer you some advice ahead of tonight’s Premier League Darts action. It won’t surprise you to hear that it was raining in Manchester this morning. As I set off from my hotel near Piccadilly Gardens for a stroll through the city wearing my Parisian trench coat and Panama hat I remembered some advice a good friend of mine from Norway, Erik ‘The Frown’ Fosberg, who plays golf off a handicap of two, gave me: “There’s no such thing as bad weather, only bad clothing.”

I haven’t seen him for a while. In fact the last time our paths crossed was at the 1994 Winter Olympics when he introduced a female acquaintance to me as his Fjord escort.

I digress. This evening’s darts has once again thrown up some absolutely fascinating clashes. I have a view on all of them, as ever, and as a self-proclaimed prophet I do believe I have the law on my side today – the law of averages. The ‘first to eight, maximum 14 legs’ format was deliberately devised to throw up the odd draw and in 16 matches so far we’re yet to see a tie. Three of tonight’s matches are potential draws, with the other being a sure-fire banker. The NAP selection in question has to be an in-form Webster to beat an out-of-sorts Jenkins.

I’d advise backing the draw in two of the other three with a view to trading out in-running. The Wizard of Oz should have enough in his Whitlocker to prevail over Lewis (probably 8-4 or 8-5), so get on the Australian, but the Wade/Barney clash will see the lead change hands more times than a couple of angry dog lovers squabbling over their pedigree pooch. 

The night’s Clash of the Titans, meanwhile, should also be a trade-fest, providing unbeaten Anderson can hold his nerve on his double tops. A tasty tip in this match could be Anderson to score the most 180s as he’s been prolific with his maximums in the league thus far, while Taylor’s penchant for ‘going downstairs’ is matched only by the most enthusiastic adult movie stars. One thing’s for sure, The Power will win at least six legs – which is more than any of Anderson’s previous opponents have managed thus far.

So, to recap, Webster is the NAP, but feel free to lap up any of my other claptrap.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: A good dart these days is hard to find.

HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. I trust you all got on Portsmouth to beat Sheffield United on Saturday. At close to 1.9 that has to be one of the best value ‘home banker’ bets all season. Apologies for not posting for a few days – I had to nip over to Geneva in my private jet for a meeting with my bank manager. I’ll tell you how that went in a future post. Fear not, followers, for I came out of it smelling of the Botanical Gardens. Until then, please enjoy a brief recap of our recent successes, before piling into my next tip.

04 Mar 11 18:11
TIP: Take the value on Portsmouth now as the Pompey Chimes will be ringing long and loud tomorrow. It won’t necessarily be pretty, but they’ll prevail over the Blades - providing the floodlights stay on long enough.
Comment – Portsmouth won 1-0 (at circa 1.9)

03 Mar 11 09:11
The NAP selection just has to be Whitlock to beat Jenkins.
Comment – Whitlock won 8-1 (at circa 1.8)

01 Mar 11 18:48
Football is a simple game and to this end the obvious ‘Score At Any Time’ shouts are Lampard (free-scoring midfielder and penalty-taker) and Torres (world-class World Cup-winning striker desperate to open his account in his third match for his new club).
Comment – Lampard scored (at circa 4.3)

TIP FOR TONIGHT
LAY Exeter to beat Bournemouth (currently 3.3)
The Cherries are, like myself, upwardly-mobile this season and should secure automatic promotion, while Exeter are nothing more than a solid mid-table bunch and are far from unbeatable at home, having already lost five at St James Park. Bournemouth like to keep it tight when they’re not at Dean Court and I simply can’t envisage a home victory here.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: Never bite the hand that feeds you – just give it a little polite nibble every now and then