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Trade Aid

29 Mar 11 22:02
HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. Today I’ve prepared a few notes on trading for you, my loyal followers, in the expectation that you all ultimately enjoy a lifestyle as exhilarating, fulfilling and generally spectacular as mine. Sorry it’s a little brief, but I’ve just had an unexpected visit from a heavy-drinking friend of mine, Alf ‘The Cistern’ Kenilworth, who needs some advice as to which roadside assistance organisation to join.

I digress. Trading is where you can make money without having any liability, in other words if you’re sufficiently cunning and quick-witted then you can back a competitor to win at high odds, lay it at the same liability as your bet stake at lower odds and end up with a free bet. If the market shifts enough, you can cover all eventualities and be guaranteed a profit regardless of the eventual outcome. This method of betting and laying sounds incredibly complicated, but given the right market situation it’s actually a breeze.

Here’s how it works...
Race A – Six dogs at 6pm. By 5:50 a few pounds have been exchanged and you decide to try and back, for example, Doggie One at 10/1 – or 11.0 as it would be quoted in decimals. Your £2 (minimum stake on Betfair, let’s not go too mad for the time being) is matched, so if it wins you stand to make a £20 profit, plus of course your original £2. If it loses, you lose your £2 stake. Lay the same dog for £2, however, at, say 8/1 (9.0 decimal odds) and suddenly you’ve ‘locked in’ your money. If it wins, you take the difference between 10/1 and 8/1 (2/1) so you win £4, plus your original £2 stake. If your dog loses, you lose nothing, because you have traded out.

Taking the market fluctuations and stakes to a slightly higher level (believe me, it does happen), perhaps you might back Bitch Six this time at 15/1 for £2, then lay it at 8/1 when the market has moved, for £3. Your winnings on Bitch Six would be £30 (£2 bet x 15 = £30) - (£3 lay x 8 = £21) = £9. As you’ve laid it for more money at lesser odds, however, if it didn’t win, you’d still take £1 profit on each of the other dogs, regardless of which one won, plus of course your original £2 stake. In other words, a completely free, no lose bet with no liability.     

To sum up, if the above conditions are met, this is how your betting sheet will look -
Doggie One £1
Mutt Two £1
Pooch Three £1
Hound Four £1
Puppy Five £1
Bitch Six £9

The same style of trading can be applied to any sport, regardless of the number of potential outcomes. Obviously, the market has to move in the way you want it to, but there is free money to be made if you look hard enough for it. Markets fluctuate like crazy when betting goes in running – i.e. the race or match is started and is in progress - and if certain conditions are met and you know what you’re doing then free money can be yours.

Take a football match where the home side has a slight edge, priced up at 2.14 home win, 3.4 draw and 4.1 away win before the kick-off. If you strongly believe that the home side is likely to score first, but might not necessarily hang on to win, then you could perhaps back the home win before kick-off at £10 on 2.14, then when they score and the price comes in to around 1.4, you could lay them at that price for £12 for example. This would leave your sheet looking like this – home £6.60, draw £2, away £2 – with no liability. Free money all around.

Even on matches where there are only two outcomes, such as tennis and snooker, there are rich pickings to be made providing the circumstances are right. Both aforementioned sports can fluctuate massively when in running, with the match favourite often changing a number of times as the game progresses. Simply back one player at a high price, then lay, but for slightly more money, at a lower price, thus locking in a liability-free profit regardless of the outcome. A lot can happen in five sets of tennis – even more in a best of 35 frame snooker match.

I must dash now, to sort Alf out with some recovery advice and perhaps a little gin sling to help clear his mind. Once I’ve got the money he owes me, I’ll start working on some more Premier League Darts tips, which I’ll duly publish on 31 March.

Remember: There’s a world of difference – and an enormous pile of cash - between a mug punter and a talented trader.
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