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Eyecatching from the Chicago last time....
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because i couldnt see was 12s sp last yr off 5 lbs more.fell at first but is a very good jumper normally.he ran in a 2 miles hurdle a month ago against one of the fancied ones for the 2 mile novice in chelt(gallileos choice)he led all the way and just got passed going to the last.a very satisfactory run in my opinion.at 50/60 on here the price is more than fair.it should get in(number 53)and in noel glynn it has a very shrewd trainer.
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He has fell in 3 of his 10 chase starts,when considering the first 4 last year had only fell 3 or 4 times combined in there chasing careers,is why i would give becauseicouldntsee not that good a chance
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i didnt know that to be honest.any time i seen him he was or looked a safe jumper.if he runs thur itl tell us a lot
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the whole point of this method is to find candidates that fit the profile of a typical National winner as strongly as possible, that have the requisite class, stamina and experience and that have been given a specific preparation for the race
The idea is to get away from the subjective and to a list of runners to cover the field in the hope of finding the winner I am estimating that there is a fairly good chance that the winner is on the initial list (scoring 11/13 and higher) and that chance increases slightly as you go down to 10/13, 9/13 for betting purposes I will stick to the top 9 qualifiers and hopefully trade them later to reduce liability |
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Cool.
How has this system faired in the past |
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Winner on the shortlist 10 of last 13 years including Mon Mome!
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Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices
Chicago Grey 25 Becauseicouldntsee 60 Cappa Bleu 21 Sunnyhillboy 65 The Package 70 Always Right 46 The Midnight Club 40 Uncle Junior 130 Rare Bob 75 Killyglen 38 West End Rocker 20 Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee just finished 1st and 2nd in the Kim Muir and are now trading at 23 and 30 Good start to the trading plan |
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im sitting on prices varying from 60/70 for becauseicouldntsee..happy enough at this stage.
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"The Package is a big enough price so it only takes a small bet to have him winning nicely and I hope he will run well enough at the Cheltenham Festival to get his price to contract
Sunnyhillboy is my idea of the best trade. He can be expected to run well at the Festival and is a JP McManus/Jonjo/McCoy horse who could catch the public imagination. I will be betting him significantly with a view to laying back." The Package now trading at 36/40 from 70 at the time of posting |
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"Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee just finished 1st and 2nd in the Kim Muir and are now trading at 23 and 30
Good start to the trading plan" It sure is, Judo ![]() |
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Wow judo,i put a little 25quid@48s on sunnyhill for the GN after reading your write up.
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nice work mate, scope to trade from there
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killyglen won his trial in ireland today and is into 30
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Great stuff!
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Matched at 20s
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its all coming together having taken the prices in the OP there is now lots of scope to trade hopefully more to come
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Good work Judo. What you reckon about State of Play. Although he is 12, he kept fresh for the race like they did last year. Probably won't win (although he could plod on into the money) but available to back at 95s. If he gets in, then that price will fall to green up. About 40s with the bookies.
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Good work Judo. What you reckon about State of Play. Although he is 12, he kept fresh for the race like they did last year. Probably won't win (although he could plod on into the money) but available to back at 95s. If he gets in, then that price will fall to green up. About 40s with the bookies.
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yes he only fails on age and lack of prep run - maybe he will attract money when he gets in the race so you could back to lay
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SoP is 11 on here to place. A fair price
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Regarding Chicago Grey who is a 2nd season chaser, Mordin used have that as a negative. Has that changed?
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Very pleased to see West End Rocker makes the list.
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I wasnt counting negatives I only count the number of positives
Just to point out that after winning at Cheltenham SUNNYHILLBOY now hits all 13 of the Mordin Factors - only one that does |
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where does Burton Port stand?
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Burton Port hits 9 out of 13 of the Mordin factors and is too far down the order for me to consider as he is 40th place on my weighted list of factors. Here is the complete list in order
Chicago Grey (IRE) Arbor Supreme (IRE) Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) Cappa Bleu (IRE) Organisedconfusion (IRE) State Of Play Sunnyhillboy (IRE) The Package Always Right (IRE) Always Waining (IRE) King Fontaine (IRE) Mon Mome (FR) Niche Market (IRE) Synchronised (IRE) The Midnight Club (IRE) Uncle Junior (IRE) Rare Bob (IRE) Smoking Aces (IRE) Some Target (IRE) Ballabriggs (IRE) Black Apalachi (IRE) Cooldine (IRE) Crescent Island Fair Along (GER) Giles Cross (IRE) Hello Bud (IRE) Killyglen (IRE) Neptune Equester Northern Alliance (IRE) Planet Of Sound Psycho (IRE) Quiscover Fontaine Shakalakaboomboom (IRE) West End Rocker (IRE) Midnight Chase Vic Venturi (IRE) According To Pete Alfa Beat (IRE) Apt Approach (IRE) Backstage (FR) Burton Port (IRE) Deep Purple Le Beau Bai (FR) Little Josh (IRE) Massini's Maguire (IRE) Shakervilz (FR) Swing Bill (FR) Tharawaat (IRE) Treacle (IRE) Wymott (IRE) Neptune Collonges (FR) Roulez Cool Saddlers Storm (IRE) Stewarts House (IRE) Abbeybraney (IRE) Any Currency (IRE) Blazing Tempo (IRE) Calgary Bay (IRE) In Compliance (IRE) Pearlysteps Prince De Beauchene (FR) Qhilimar (FR) Quantitativeeasing (IRE) Roberto Goldback (IRE) Scotsirish (IRE) |
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dang that didnt work
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Cheers jud
great work |
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youre very welcome, if you feel like copying the whole list and posting it in sensible order that would be good - I copied and pasted from my spreadsheet and it came out wrong
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Chicago Grey (IRE) Arbor Supreme (IRE
Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) Cappa Bleu (IRE) Organisedconfusion (IRE) State Of Sunnyhillboy (IRE The Package Always Right (IRE Always Waining (IRE) King Fontaine (IRE) Mon Mome (FR) Niche Market (IRE) Synchronised (IRE) The Midnight Club (IRE) Uncle Junior (IRE) Rare Bob (IRE) Smoking Aces (IRE) Some Target (IRE) Ballabriggs (IRE Black Apalachi (IRE) Cooldine (IRE Crescent Island Fair Along (GER) Giles Cross (IRE) Hello Bud (IRE Killyglen (IRE) Neptune Equester Northern Alliance (IRE) Planet Of Sound Psycho (IRE) Quiscover Fontaine Shakalakaboomboom (IRE West End Rocker (IRE Midnight Chase Vic Venturi (IRE According To Pete Alfa Beat (IRE Apt Approach (IRE Backstage (FR Burton Port (IRE Deep Le Beau Bai (FR Little Josh (IRE Massini's Maguire (IRE Shakervilz (FR) Swing Bill (FR Tharawaat (IRE) Treacle (IRE) Wymott (IRE) Neptune Collonges (FR Roulez Saddlers Storm (IRE) Stewarts House (IRE Abbeybraney (IRE Any Currency (IRE) Blazing Tempo (IRE) Calgary Bay (IRE In Compliance (IRE) Pearlysteps Prince De Beauchene (FR Qhilimar (FR) Quantitativeeasing (IRE Roberto Goldback (IRE Scotsirish (IRE) |
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i,m no nick mordin but sunnyhillboy fails my 1st stat of national picks,absolutely no chance of jumping around aintree,
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post your picks and prices then so we can all see how you get on
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killyglen 28,s over a cliff method
cappa bleu 28s think the trainer can ready one chicago grey 25,s laid out for race sure to add a few more on the day when ew ist 5 and 6 kick in |
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yeah but start your own thread mate
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1st time poster - if Sunnyhillboy has no chance of jumping around Aintree then I suggest you watch a recording of Chicago Greys last spin around Cheltenham.
Its nae bonnie! |
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my tips are allowed to jump badly,
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WEST END ROCKER
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oi, get orf my fred
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Where is Junior in the list??
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