Grand National

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07 Mar 12 14:43
Date Joined: 27 Nov 11
| Topic/replies: 26,376 | Blogger: judorick's blog
Many of you will know about the Nick Mordin system for analysing the National which involves 13 factors. I have undertaken the exact same process and produced a spreadsheet with all these factors plus columns for age, whether they will get a run, prices, going preferences and then I have filtered it for their marks out of the original 13 Mordin factors.

Below is a list of the top qualifiers (more than 10 out of 13) in order as they appear on the spreadsheet in order of the marks they score out of 13:-

Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Cappa Bleu
State of Play
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
King Fontaine
Mon Mome
Niche Market (already declared non runner)
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target

There are some notable runners on exactly 10/13 which include:

Giles Cross
West End Rocker

Ok so that is clearly too many runners and I needed to reduce them by eliminating by some useful and powerful so I looked first at age. Firstly the key age group appears to be the 8 to 11 years olds so I kicked out all those outside that range. This removes Organisedconfusion, Mon Mome and State of Play. King Fontaine is highly unlikely to get a run and he goes too.

I then decided to eliminate on the weight to be carried so as Synchronised and Ballabriggs have to overcome marks in the 160s I have removed them from consideration.

OK so at this stage we are left with:

Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Cappa Bleu
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target


Giles Cross
West End Rocker

This still seems a few too many to consider so a few logical judgement calls will be required to get the list down further. Firstly, both Arbor Supreme and Giles Cross are particularly going dependent (mudlarks) and are put on the back burner until we know the state of the going. I am also going to extend the age group requirement to eliminate the 8 year olds now which removes Smoking Aces, Some Target and Shakalakaboomboom. Remember this list is in order of the number of factors they match:

Chicago Grey
Cappa Bleu
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
West End Rocker

This leaves a list of 12 runners to consider at this stage which still seems enough. One common characteristic of National winners is that they tend to be relatively lightly raced with around 15 races over fences being the norm. Always Waining has raced 33 times so I will eliminate him.

Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices

Chicago Grey                        25
Becauseicouldntsee             60
Cappa Bleu                           21
Sunnyhillboy                         65
The Package                         70
Always Right                         46
The Midnight Club                 40
Uncle Junior                          130
Rare Bob                               75
Killyglen                                38                             
West End Rocker                  20

Chicago Grey and Cappa Bleu look by far the strongest contenders on my list and I will have strong bets on both.

The Package is a big enough price so it only takes a small bet to have him winning nicely and I hope he will run well enough at the Cheltenham Festival to get his price to contract

Sunnyhillboy is my idea of the best trade. He can be expected to run well at the Festival and is a JP McManus/Jonjo/McCoy horse who could catch the public imagination. I will be betting him significantly with a view to laying back.

I will just have the others winning a bit and be looking to increase as we get nearer by laying back the other bigger bets.

There you go - National sorted for you. Enjoy! Grin
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Report Brian April 16, 2012 6:20 PM BST
Judorick seems a little touchy but it was an interesting thread which is what this forum should be about.
Report kavvie April 16, 2012 7:34 PM BST
its over lads.judrick ws very good and i look forward to his thoughts next yr.i bkd becauseicouldntsee for 2nd yr in a row.fell twice.i wont bk him again.dont think he has the scope for them fences.i like shakalaka for next yr.if bg settled him better off the pace and have patience with his run.a good first try for the horse.
Report Festivalgal April 17, 2012 7:50 AM BST
Very pleasing result all round (short post) Laugh

Each to their own, of course, but there was actually very little interesting contribution in this thread. As usual it was a trends-based thread that not only required no original thought but went the extra nauseating yard in suggesting any horse outside those trends couldn't win.

I had to re-read the result as I was sure there had to have been a mistake...
Report buddeliea April 17, 2012 8:43 AM BST
yep,spot on,nauseating indeed!!and to mention 25 horses and not get the winner or the 3rd horse that looked like winning turning for home aint too clever in my book.
Report kavvie April 17, 2012 11:29 AM BST
in fairness lads he advised a horse at 65 that was beaten a millimetre!!with a bit more luck and effort from the saddle it would have been a great tip.
Report jasey April 17, 2012 5:56 PM BST
to many knockers,who don't have the brains to comprehend what judo did.
neptune after all was gifted the race.
Report alansure1 April 17, 2012 8:39 PM BST
thanks judorick,i followed your thread and managed to make a few quid not the £1500 i should have got if the jockey had ridden the best horse in the race all the way to the line, i would also have had £800 going onto Taylors sky (one of the best dogs ive ever seen) to win the greyhound derby again which is very very feasable.Thanks again heres to next year
Report tomdeane April 17, 2012 8:47 PM BST
In fairness, yes, he did put a lot of effort into this and was very nearly rewarded but I think people are being mean because of the way he often dismisses people as not being worthy of talking on his threads.
Report racingguru April 18, 2012 6:14 AM BST
I had no problems with his analysis though somewhat flawed he came up with reasonably sound selections. His failure to justify  his dismissal of other horses and his attitude pi$$ed people off. However, I think its wrong to label him as clueless. A fair amount of effort went in, he got good prices and had reasonable criteria though somewhat outdated.
Report tinkler April 18, 2012 11:51 AM BST
The trends analysis produced aren't really my cup of tea but a lot of
time and effort looks to have been put into his orginal post and I'm sure plenty of people will have found it interesting and informative, every credit for that.
Report The Headmaster April 19, 2012 6:51 PM BST
You trends boys really do make me chuckle.

Surely to goodness, after this result, all this backfitting has to stop.


Report jasey April 19, 2012 11:16 PM BST
**** head
Report buddeliea April 20, 2012 7:55 AM BST
Report buddeliea April 20, 2012 8:04 AM BST
jasey Joined: 22 Jul 08
Replies: 267 17 Apr 12 17:56   
to many knockers,who don't have the brains to comprehend what judo did.LaughLaugh
neptune after all was gifted the race.
gifted!! Laugh

And you call him a ----head!!!
Report tomdeane April 20, 2012 8:33 AM BST
There are at least three major pitfalls, as I see it, with using trends in finding likely winners.

Firstly, as The Headmaster points out, they are all backfitted to existing data. Even if conditions never change, there is a danger that all you are doing is putting too much emphasis on chancy-ish results and assuming that common factors caused previous winners to win, rather than that they were simply correlated. Of course, the other issue is sample size; realistically you want at least 30-40 previous races to form firm opinions from, and how many races are run at courses ad feature horses that are basically the same year in, year out, for 30-40 years?

Secondly, it is impossible to know how much weight to give each factor. In most of these trends-based threads, 8-10 different ones seem to come into the argument (official rating, number of runs this season etc...). But posters usually give horses 1 point per trend that they meet. Who honestly believes that all of these factors are as important as each other? So why rule out one horse than scores 2 points less than the top-rated few, when the two trends it doesn't meet might not even be very important from the data that has been backfitted?

Finally, these trend-based threads don't tell you anything about value! If one horse scores 8 out of 10 and is 5-1 but another scores 6 out of 10 and is 66-1, which one should you back?

I appreciate that these approaches work for some people, but there will never be a substitute for good, in-depth, subjective race reading and value analysis. I'm no punting God but I certainly know I would be more confident in putting in 5 hours of race reading before a big one and backing my judgement rather than spending the same amount of time playing with old data that doesn't affect the horses that are actually running the race in x amount of hours.
Report buddeliea April 20, 2012 12:19 PM BST
Very well put Tom
Report strontium April 20, 2012 1:43 PM BST
Tom, that's a very interesting post. Your second point is the fundamental problem imo (and it's where Paul Jones is a master - i.e. at weighting the value of trends and integrating them with form). Your first point is correct for an individual race but it's smoothed out to some extent by applying trends to a lot of races.

However, despite the flaws, looking at trends can be an interesting and useful supplement to form study. If you have a robust set of trends it can be valuable to think about why these apparent patterns arise and what that tells you about the sort of horse that does well in a particular race. In some races (the RSA Chase for example) the trends are extraordinarily strong and reliable.
Report The Headmaster April 20, 2012 2:11 PM BST
Don't discourage mugs like jasey, budd.  If everyone thought like us we wouldn't win any money Sad

I suppose next year we'll all be encouraged to back anything carrying over 11st that's French-bred, eh?  And if it's grey, double yer bet.

FFS fellas LaughLaughLaugh

Remember, every horse and every race is it's own entity.  Please treat it as such.
Report zilzal1 April 20, 2012 2:59 PM BST
It can work in your favour, id oppose every Guineas winner that turns up at Epsom because they nearly always are overbet, what other time would a horse be fav going up 50% in distance, dont remember many 2m animals going up to win the King George, for every Nashwan and See The Stars, you'll get three Entrepreneur's

Year after year you will get horses from wide out in the Totesport mile being backed because the meeting has thrown a few winners wide, thus forgetting that on Thursday of the meeting the false rail is opened up and the fresh ground is on the inside

Ask yourself if a trend has any logical explanation to it
Report jasey April 20, 2012 10:18 PM BST
everyone uses trends.
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them
Report strontium April 21, 2012 3:58 PM BST
Curiously, on the trends I use the top picks have come second in each of the Irish, Grand and Scottish Nationals this season. Irritating as I rarely back e/w Plain
Report ReaseHeath April 21, 2012 11:15 PM BST
stopped relying on 'em for the National after I eliminated all 40 horses one year!
Report buddeliea April 22, 2012 10:10 AM BST
Report strontium April 22, 2012 2:14 PM BST
Several recent Gold Cups have been like that as well (another strong trends race). It races another general point to add to Tom's excellent post above (though perhaps it's just an aspect of weighting) - what do trends followers do when nothing meets all the trends?
Report strontium April 22, 2012 2:15 PM BST

(Freudian slip)
Report The Headmaster April 23, 2012 1:20 PM BST
everyone uses trends.
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them

I think you mean "too" stupid and "they're" using them, jasey Sad

Case closed imo. Plain
Report RedAdair May 9, 2012 8:17 PM BST
Anyone know what's happened to Judo?
Report Steeplechasing May 14, 2012 7:33 PM BST
Seems he's been thrown
Report HipPriest July 17, 2012 2:32 PM BST
Ha ha relying on Mordin.

have you seen his long term record in the National Laugh
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:14 PM GMT
What has been overlooked is the fact that JUDORICK cribbed
MORDINS, made up statistics, FRENCH BREDS are not a drawback as anyone who knows the history of the Grand National,  5 year old won in the early 1920s, 2 more FBs in last 3 years,
a 4yo has won the NATIONAL, yet we saddle ourselves by using tight margins, if we used all of the stupid parameters espoused by people like MORDIN , then I would NEVER have backed
JAY TRUMP or RHYME'N'REASON because one was American owned and the other had won more than MORDINS number of wins in a season idea.
I operate a system which OCCASIONALLY throws up the winners of big races, but we must remember that some horses REAL ability is hidden in the way of plots.
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:16 PM GMT
Especially so in a big handicap like the Grand National.
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:20 PM GMT
What was VENETIA doing on Saturday, unless she believes that her horse can and will carry the high weight he will be allotted, especially after a Gold Cup, grueler?
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
Does anyone remember what the new criteria are for entry to the National, please?
Seem to remember that a win in a 2 and a half mile 'chase, is part of
the qualifying rules, am I right?
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
Report bazzar January 28, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
Report Rydal January 28, 2013 6:00 PM GMT
I think conditions are first 4 in 3 miles plus; OR 120 plus; 7 years plus. We should know the entries tomorrow or Wednesday.
Report jameschildshieldwinner January 30, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
Enries will be out sometime today-usually around lunch time.
Report Michrich February 1, 2013 10:16 AM GMT
Anyone else think The Package has a big chance in this?
Report jasey February 1, 2013 4:19 PM GMT
Yes he is one i am keeping an eye on
Report judorick February 12, 2013 10:21 AM GMT
I've done the spreadsheet for 85 runners now but have not looked deeply into it yet
Report Swagger February 17, 2013 8:41 PM GMT
Alright Rick, hope you are doing well pal. Out of interest, how does Across The Bay score on your shortlist? He is the only horse I fancy for the National and liked his chances even before he won the graded hurdle race yesterday and now he has shown his well being again, i like his chances even more.
Report judorick February 17, 2013 8:51 PM GMT
hello mate, he come out joint 64th on the list

if you PM with an e-mail address I will send you the sheet and my initial analysis mate

hope you and your bruv are well
Report Swagger February 17, 2013 8:53 PM GMT
64th, pretty low Sad

Cheers i will do much obliged
Report judorick February 17, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
jumped to joint 41st after hurdles race (Across the Bay)
Report Swagger February 17, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
Very interesting Rick, thanks very much for the email. I agree with your top selection, it looks like it could have been a long term project.
Report judorick February 17, 2013 10:38 PM GMT
yup get on for as much as you can without scaring the market, trade it back later
Report boy wonder 07 February 18, 2013 12:01 PM GMT
as you know judorick i have bet seabass but one other on my shortlist using trends and looking at mordins stats is alfie sherrin the big danger for him is actually getting in
Report judorick February 18, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
Alfie Sherrin is my second biggest bet boy wonder

expect remarkable improvement if he runs at Cheltenham. I'm sure they will get him in
Report boy wonder 07 February 18, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
thank you who comes out on top please
Report judorick February 18, 2013 8:54 PM GMT
whole bunches of National entries out for a run in the next few days

one that is on my radar is QUINZ. Worth a cheap bet in the national market
Report judorick February 18, 2013 8:54 PM GMT
@ Boy Wonder

top was The Package
Report boy wonder 07 February 19, 2013 9:30 AM GMT
thanks judorick i am a fan of the package was on him when just beaten by chief dan george at festival but got him this year in badger ales i wasnt convinced he enjoyed his first experience of aintree in dont push its national but he was only 7 one major negative for me is that the last 24 national winners had all had 3 career chase wins as it stands the package has 2 thank you for your information and all the best i think i wii settle with seabass and alfie sherrin unless the package gains that 3rd win before aintree
Report The Sawyer February 20, 2013 7:42 AM GMT

Hasn't Alfie Sherrin only won twice over fences?
Report boy wonder 07 February 20, 2013 10:52 AM GMT
thanks sawyer dont know how i missed that
Report judorick February 20, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
number of wins over fences is not on my list
Report boy wonder 07 February 20, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
with the changing face of the national many trends will do an about turn especially weight carried i work off 19 varying trends the stongest five of mine with 100pc are won over at least 3m, won a class 1 or class 2 chase, won at least 3 chases,2-5 outings since august and finally if run over the national fences must have been placed. a run in last 52 days is 23 from 24
Report GoldCupWinner February 21, 2013 4:43 PM GMT
Where does Midnight Chase appear on your list? Has good staying form on good ground although usually at Cheltenham. Been dropped a good few lb since last year.
Report judorick February 21, 2013 5:51 PM GMT
his position depends on how much the weights rise but he was in the top 20
Report keeping silent February 22, 2013 12:00 AM GMT
I agree with your initial thoughts on The Package. Will it run again before the big day ? I note it isn't entered for a race prior.
Report judorick February 22, 2013 12:57 AM GMT
needs a run imo
Report Michrich February 22, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
The Package is entered in the handicap chase on the first day of the festival.
Report judorick February 22, 2013 12:53 PM GMT
no surprise
Report Meat Loaf February 22, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
judorick do you like Saint Are? ;)
Report judorick February 22, 2013 8:15 PM GMT
afraid not Meat mate, too young and too inexperienced

two years or 3 years time if they plan his campaign carefully
Report Meat Loaf February 23, 2013 10:33 AM GMT
Ok good luck in your selections.

If Saint Are manages to somehow get round without falling (a big if) it will run extremely well in my opinion.

Report Meat Loaf February 23, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
Out of interest Judorick which horse do you think will eb the last to get in roughly?

I have a little interest on a horse weighted 9-10 but struggling to see it making the cut?
Report Michrich February 23, 2013 11:13 AM GMT
Have also read that the The Package might bypass the festival and go to Donnie for the Grimthorpe.
Report judorick February 23, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
I will do some work on the entries and estimate the bottom weight - there could be a ballot if several are trying to get in. Get back on that one

Yes, Grimthorpe could be used for the Package but whatever, he is sure to have a run
Report Meat Loaf February 23, 2013 12:24 PM GMT
Thanks judorick. That would be appreciated.

Just been reading through this thread - it is a credit to you judorick. Very informative.
Report judorick February 23, 2013 4:07 PM GMT
might take some time though
Report judorick February 23, 2013 4:09 PM GMT
great trial by Quinz today
Report Fabulous February 23, 2013 4:20 PM GMT
Agreed judo, very encouraging.

I normally look around the 72nd to 77th horses on the list for the cut off point, that brings in backstage through to Cloudy lane.
Report shockster February 23, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
Thought Rare Bob ran a solid trial today and came out best at the National weights in the Bobbyjo. Looks like he's being trained for it and hopefully will get a run and good ground.

Any chance according to the list Judo?
Report judorick February 23, 2013 5:57 PM GMT
yes on the list quite well up there in the top 20 iirc( It's all quite tight down to 20 ish places so I am concentrating on the ones at the top and the ones who have RPRs much higher than the BHA mark they are set to run off)

a few negatives on other trends not on the list and I've dismissed him solely because of the number of races he has had which seems a major negative but there's nothing to say he can't run well

I have a (long) short list of 13 like in the OP of this thread and I will post it up nearer the race but Rare Bob is not on it I can tell you. Be interesting to see Mordins list eventually
Report shockster February 23, 2013 6:05 PM GMT
Cheers Judo.  Got him at real fancy prices and will hope for the best.
Report judorick February 23, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
that's what I'm doing, getting on at fancy prices and hoping they shorten up to smear the green all round, well at least break even no matter what - not specifically looking for the winner now especially with trials still to come
Report GLASGOWCALLING February 24, 2013 6:28 PM GMT
have just took the 16/1 ew CAPPA BLEU with laddies..hoping for a good run at least..HappyHappy
Report judorick February 24, 2013 6:49 PM GMT
he is 3rd or 4th on my list and very very solid

give a good run for the money if he gets round safely

Report Meat Loaf February 27, 2013 5:39 PM GMT
Hi judorick. Any news on your analysis for which will be roughly the last horse do scrape into the National?
Report judorick February 27, 2013 7:55 PM GMT
something like Matuhi who was 66 on the original list? maybe 4 or 5 lower than him which was...Major Malarkey

wouldn't worry, all those right at the bottom have little chance in all probability
Report Roselier February 27, 2013 10:27 PM GMT
I have my own derivitive of one of Mordin's older scoring methods. Can't abide elimination method. Alfier Sherrin is also towards the top of my list along with The Package (until his injury Organisedconfusion scored very heavily so will back early and speculatively for next year). Nevertheless I knew from a very long way off that Poker De Sivola would also score heavily and have some very fancy prices in the win and in particular the TBP market. Ferdy is doing his usual in saying the plan will now be next year but if (on paper it looks a big if but expect plenty to still drop out) he does get in I anticipate a big run as long as we're racing on anything better than soft. No point putting all his eggs in one basket for 2014, only for it to come up a bog and scupper any chance. Anyway, he's still in the entries despite what Ferdy said so make of that what you will.

My main concern re Alfie Sherrin and The Package is the stallions terrible record over four miles thus far. I hope that dual Ascot GC winner Kayf Tara's progeny are late developers because his offspring is building an unimpressive record over four miles plus. Of course The Package and Alfie Sherrin have already failed to complete over the distance and Planet Of Sound conked out alarmingly last year. Thankfully, much of a horse's stamina is derived from the dam and Alfie Sherrin hails from the family of Whitbread winner and one time GN favourite Beau. Out of him and The Package it is definitely Alfie I have more faith in. He is a truly massive horse in terms of his scope. Look at him in the JLT last year compared to Fruity. He's twice the length!

But the jury is most definitely out re Kayf Tara as a sire of extreme distance winners. Carruthers has won over 3m 4f but the furthest distance one has won over is 3m 6f when Dermatologiste won a low graded affair.

I'm on but I'm in no way convinced....yet.
Report alleged22 March 15, 2013 8:51 PM GMT
how does quel esprit fare judo? a french bred grey will do me again Cool
Report GoldCupWinner March 19, 2013 10:21 PM GMT
How do Auroras Encore and Any Currency fit on the trends? Just looking at some lowly weighted outsiders who look like they will stay.
Report GoldCupWinner March 19, 2013 11:20 PM GMT
Oh and Across the Bay too please!
Report governor March 20, 2013 12:27 AM GMT
am hoping and praying Poker de sivola gets in be game on then massive price this horse ew
Report judorick March 24, 2013 4:20 PM GMT
Waiting to see what Mordin himself comes up with in the Weekender on the Wednesday before the race
Report judorick March 27, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
I will be posting my selection(s) next week, interesting stuff

need to see which end up in the Irish National first
Report GoldCupWinner March 27, 2013 12:17 PM GMT
Be interesting to see what it is. I'm really struggling to find a strong fancy this year so need all the help I can get. Stuck on Seabass and Cappa Bleu at the minute but not feeling overly great with Seabass carrying more weight and Cappa Bleu feels more of a placed rather than winning horse to me.
Report judorick March 27, 2013 12:30 PM GMT
Cappa Bleu is very strong, well weighted and has a huge chance, I am on for a decent win GCW

you are right about Seabass. I have him breaking even right now, but he will struggle to confirm form with Cappa at the weights, certainly needs to improve plenty to win.

My advice is always to have several running for you (like 7 to 13 runners) and to give yourself the most chances of collecting
Report zilzal1 March 27, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
What you keep on hearing all the time is to look out for horses who have "Run well in the race beforehand" it may have yielded some place returns, but apart from Amberleigh House and Hello Dandy, you'd have to go back to the Red Rum era to find a winner of the race who'd previously hit the frame in a previous National
Report GoldCupWinner March 27, 2013 7:12 PM GMT
How many of those who ran well managed to get back in off a lower mark the next year?
Report judorick March 27, 2013 8:53 PM GMT
I wouldn't be taking 12s now but the ante post 26 before the Ascot race was good odds
Report punter66 March 28, 2013 10:36 AM GMT
judo,whats left on your shortlist
Report judorick March 28, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
will be posting analysis next week mate
Report punter66 March 28, 2013 12:01 PM GMT
so you have not had a antepost bet yet
Report Makybe_Diva March 28, 2013 12:04 PM GMT
Will look forward to you analysis, Rick.

I've just sent you a pm. And now you've disappeared Mischief

I'm off out now. Be back in a while.
Report Makybe_Diva March 28, 2013 12:05 PM GMT

This friggin forum.

I'm sure there's a gremlin in here that tampers with our posts in transit Devil
Report judorick March 28, 2013 12:25 PM GMT
I have had hundreds of ante post bets, backed and laid 20+ horses many many times since the weights came out, some are non runners (backed Alfie Sherrin, laid Prince de Beauchene, Wyck Hill, Katenko)
Report willie the milk March 29, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
I'm on 6. Doubt I will do any more.
Seabass @ 14.64
Cappa Bleu @ 15.54
Chicago Grey @ 18.49
Sunnyhill Boy @ 28
Rare Bob @ 38
Quinz @ 105
Best result (obviously) is Quinz. Worst winning result Seabass would be a 3-1 winning bet.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 11, 2020 4:53 PM GMT
IS THIS LAD still about ????????
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