Grand National
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Many of you will know about the Nick Mordin system for analysing the National which involves 13 factors. I have undertaken the exact same process and produced a spreadsheet with all these factors plus columns for age, whether they will get a run, prices, going preferences and then I have filtered it for their marks out of the original 13 Mordin factors.
Below is a list of the top qualifiers (more than 10 out of 13) in order as they appear on the spreadsheet in order of the marks they score out of 13:-
Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Organisedconfusion
State of Play
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
King Fontaine
Mon Mome
Niche Market (already declared non runner)
Synchronised
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target
There are some notable runners on exactly 10/13 which include:
Ballabriggs
Killyglen
Cooldine
Giles Cross
West End Rocker
Shakalakboomboom
Ok so that is clearly too many runners and I needed to reduce them by eliminating by some useful and powerful so I looked first at age. Firstly the key age group appears to be the 8 to 11 years olds so I kicked out all those outside that range. This removes Organisedconfusion, Mon Mome and State of Play. King Fontaine is highly unlikely to get a run and he goes too.
I then decided to eliminate on the weight to be carried so as Synchronised and Ballabriggs have to overcome marks in the 160s I have removed them from consideration.
OK so at this stage we are left with:
Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target
and
Killyglen
Giles Cross
West End Rocker
Shakalakboomboom
This still seems a few too many to consider so a few logical judgement calls will be required to get the list down further. Firstly, both Arbor Supreme and Giles Cross are particularly going dependent (mudlarks) and are put on the back burner until we know the state of the going. I am also going to extend the age group requirement to eliminate the 8 year olds now which removes Smoking Aces, Some Target and Shakalakaboomboom. Remember this list is in order of the number of factors they match:
Chicago Grey
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Killyglen
West End Rocker
This leaves a list of 12 runners to consider at this stage which still seems enough. One common characteristic of National winners is that they tend to be relatively lightly raced with around 15 races over fences being the norm. Always Waining has raced 33 times so I will eliminate him.
Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices
Chicago Grey 25
Becauseicouldntsee 60
Cappa Bleu 21
Sunnyhillboy 65
The Package 70
Always Right 46
The Midnight Club 40
Uncle Junior 130
Rare Bob 75
Killyglen 38
West End Rocker 20
Chicago Grey and Cappa Bleu look by far the strongest contenders on my list and I will have strong bets on both.
The Package is a big enough price so it only takes a small bet to have him winning nicely and I hope he will run well enough at the Cheltenham Festival to get his price to contract
Sunnyhillboy is my idea of the best trade. He can be expected to run well at the Festival and is a JP McManus/Jonjo/McCoy horse who could catch the public imagination. I will be betting him significantly with a view to laying back.
I will just have the others winning a bit and be looking to increase as we get nearer by laying back the other bigger bets.
There you go - National sorted for you. Enjoy!
Below is a list of the top qualifiers (more than 10 out of 13) in order as they appear on the spreadsheet in order of the marks they score out of 13:-
Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Organisedconfusion
State of Play
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
King Fontaine
Mon Mome
Niche Market (already declared non runner)
Synchronised
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target
There are some notable runners on exactly 10/13 which include:
Ballabriggs
Killyglen
Cooldine
Giles Cross
West End Rocker
Shakalakboomboom
Ok so that is clearly too many runners and I needed to reduce them by eliminating by some useful and powerful so I looked first at age. Firstly the key age group appears to be the 8 to 11 years olds so I kicked out all those outside that range. This removes Organisedconfusion, Mon Mome and State of Play. King Fontaine is highly unlikely to get a run and he goes too.
I then decided to eliminate on the weight to be carried so as Synchronised and Ballabriggs have to overcome marks in the 160s I have removed them from consideration.
OK so at this stage we are left with:
Chicago Grey
Arbor Supreme
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Smoking Aces
Some Target
and
Killyglen
Giles Cross
West End Rocker
Shakalakboomboom
This still seems a few too many to consider so a few logical judgement calls will be required to get the list down further. Firstly, both Arbor Supreme and Giles Cross are particularly going dependent (mudlarks) and are put on the back burner until we know the state of the going. I am also going to extend the age group requirement to eliminate the 8 year olds now which removes Smoking Aces, Some Target and Shakalakaboomboom. Remember this list is in order of the number of factors they match:
Chicago Grey
Becauseicouldntsee
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
The Package
Always Right
Always Waining
The Midnight Club
Uncle Junior
Rare Bob
Killyglen
West End Rocker
This leaves a list of 12 runners to consider at this stage which still seems enough. One common characteristic of National winners is that they tend to be relatively lightly raced with around 15 races over fences being the norm. Always Waining has raced 33 times so I will eliminate him.
Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices
Chicago Grey 25
Becauseicouldntsee 60
Cappa Bleu 21
Sunnyhillboy 65
The Package 70
Always Right 46
The Midnight Club 40
Uncle Junior 130
Rare Bob 75
Killyglen 38
West End Rocker 20
Chicago Grey and Cappa Bleu look by far the strongest contenders on my list and I will have strong bets on both.
The Package is a big enough price so it only takes a small bet to have him winning nicely and I hope he will run well enough at the Cheltenham Festival to get his price to contract
Sunnyhillboy is my idea of the best trade. He can be expected to run well at the Festival and is a JP McManus/Jonjo/McCoy horse who could catch the public imagination. I will be betting him significantly with a view to laying back.
I will just have the others winning a bit and be looking to increase as we get nearer by laying back the other bigger bets.
There you go - National sorted for you. Enjoy!
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Judorick seems a little touchy but it was an interesting thread which is what this forum should be about.
its over lads.judrick ws very good and i look forward to his thoughts next yr.i bkd becauseicouldntsee for 2nd yr in a row.fell twice.i wont bk him again.dont think he has the scope for them fences.i like shakalaka for next yr.if bg settled him better off the pace and have patience with his run.a good first try for the horse.
Very pleasing result all round (short post) 
Each to their own, of course, but there was actually very little interesting contribution in this thread. As usual it was a trends-based thread that not only required no original thought but went the extra nauseating yard in suggesting any horse outside those trends couldn't win.
I had to re-read the result as I was sure there had to have been a mistake...
Each to their own, of course, but there was actually very little interesting contribution in this thread. As usual it was a trends-based thread that not only required no original thought but went the extra nauseating yard in suggesting any horse outside those trends couldn't win.
I had to re-read the result as I was sure there had to have been a mistake...
yep,spot on,nauseating indeed!!and to mention 25 horses and not get the winner or the 3rd horse that looked like winning turning for home aint too clever in my book.
in fairness lads he advised a horse at 65 that was beaten a millimetre!!with a bit more luck and effort from the saddle it would have been a great tip.
to many knockers,who don't have the brains to comprehend what judo did.
neptune after all was gifted the race.
neptune after all was gifted the race.
thanks judorick,i followed your thread and managed to make a few quid not the £1500 i should have got if the jockey had ridden the best horse in the race all the way to the line, i would also have had £800 going onto Taylors sky (one of the best dogs ive ever seen) to win the greyhound derby again which is very very feasable.Thanks again heres to next year
In fairness, yes, he did put a lot of effort into this and was very nearly rewarded but I think people are being mean because of the way he often dismisses people as not being worthy of talking on his threads.
I had no problems with his analysis though somewhat flawed he came up with reasonably sound selections. His failure to justify his dismissal of other horses and his attitude pi$$ed people off. However, I think its wrong to label him as clueless. A fair amount of effort went in, he got good prices and had reasonable criteria though somewhat outdated.
The trends analysis produced aren't really my cup of tea but a lot of
time and effort looks to have been put into his orginal post and I'm sure plenty of people will have found it interesting and informative, every credit for that.
time and effort looks to have been put into his orginal post and I'm sure plenty of people will have found it interesting and informative, every credit for that.
You trends boys really do make me chuckle.
Surely to goodness, after this result, all this backfitting has to stop.
No?
Surely to goodness, after this result, all this backfitting has to stop.
No?
jasey Joined: 22 Jul 08
Replies: 267 17 Apr 12 17:56
to many knockers,who don't have the brains to comprehend what judo did.
neptune after all was gifted the race.
gifted!!
And you call him a ----head!!!
Replies: 267 17 Apr 12 17:56
to many knockers,who don't have the brains to comprehend what judo did.
neptune after all was gifted the race.
gifted!!
And you call him a ----head!!!
There are at least three major pitfalls, as I see it, with using trends in finding likely winners.
Firstly, as The Headmaster points out, they are all backfitted to existing data. Even if conditions never change, there is a danger that all you are doing is putting too much emphasis on chancy-ish results and assuming that common factors caused previous winners to win, rather than that they were simply correlated. Of course, the other issue is sample size; realistically you want at least 30-40 previous races to form firm opinions from, and how many races are run at courses ad feature horses that are basically the same year in, year out, for 30-40 years?
Secondly, it is impossible to know how much weight to give each factor. In most of these trends-based threads, 8-10 different ones seem to come into the argument (official rating, number of runs this season etc...). But posters usually give horses 1 point per trend that they meet. Who honestly believes that all of these factors are as important as each other? So why rule out one horse than scores 2 points less than the top-rated few, when the two trends it doesn't meet might not even be very important from the data that has been backfitted?
Finally, these trend-based threads don't tell you anything about value! If one horse scores 8 out of 10 and is 5-1 but another scores 6 out of 10 and is 66-1, which one should you back?
I appreciate that these approaches work for some people, but there will never be a substitute for good, in-depth, subjective race reading and value analysis. I'm no punting God but I certainly know I would be more confident in putting in 5 hours of race reading before a big one and backing my judgement rather than spending the same amount of time playing with old data that doesn't affect the horses that are actually running the race in x amount of hours.
Firstly, as The Headmaster points out, they are all backfitted to existing data. Even if conditions never change, there is a danger that all you are doing is putting too much emphasis on chancy-ish results and assuming that common factors caused previous winners to win, rather than that they were simply correlated. Of course, the other issue is sample size; realistically you want at least 30-40 previous races to form firm opinions from, and how many races are run at courses ad feature horses that are basically the same year in, year out, for 30-40 years?
Secondly, it is impossible to know how much weight to give each factor. In most of these trends-based threads, 8-10 different ones seem to come into the argument (official rating, number of runs this season etc...). But posters usually give horses 1 point per trend that they meet. Who honestly believes that all of these factors are as important as each other? So why rule out one horse than scores 2 points less than the top-rated few, when the two trends it doesn't meet might not even be very important from the data that has been backfitted?
Finally, these trend-based threads don't tell you anything about value! If one horse scores 8 out of 10 and is 5-1 but another scores 6 out of 10 and is 66-1, which one should you back?
I appreciate that these approaches work for some people, but there will never be a substitute for good, in-depth, subjective race reading and value analysis. I'm no punting God but I certainly know I would be more confident in putting in 5 hours of race reading before a big one and backing my judgement rather than spending the same amount of time playing with old data that doesn't affect the horses that are actually running the race in x amount of hours.
Tom, that's a very interesting post. Your second point is the fundamental problem imo (and it's where Paul Jones is a master - i.e. at weighting the value of trends and integrating them with form). Your first point is correct for an individual race but it's smoothed out to some extent by applying trends to a lot of races.
However, despite the flaws, looking at trends can be an interesting and useful supplement to form study. If you have a robust set of trends it can be valuable to think about why these apparent patterns arise and what that tells you about the sort of horse that does well in a particular race. In some races (the RSA Chase for example) the trends are extraordinarily strong and reliable.
However, despite the flaws, looking at trends can be an interesting and useful supplement to form study. If you have a robust set of trends it can be valuable to think about why these apparent patterns arise and what that tells you about the sort of horse that does well in a particular race. In some races (the RSA Chase for example) the trends are extraordinarily strong and reliable.
Don't discourage mugs like jasey, budd. If everyone thought like us we wouldn't win any money 
I suppose next year we'll all be encouraged to back anything carrying over 11st that's French-bred, eh? And if it's grey, double yer bet.
FFS fellas
Remember, every horse and every race is it's own entity. Please treat it as such.
I suppose next year we'll all be encouraged to back anything carrying over 11st that's French-bred, eh? And if it's grey, double yer bet.
FFS fellas
Remember, every horse and every race is it's own entity. Please treat it as such.
It can work in your favour, id oppose every Guineas winner that turns up at Epsom because they nearly always are overbet, what other time would a horse be fav going up 50% in distance, dont remember many 2m animals going up to win the King George, for every Nashwan and See The Stars, you'll get three Entrepreneur's
Year after year you will get horses from wide out in the Totesport mile being backed because the meeting has thrown a few winners wide, thus forgetting that on Thursday of the meeting the false rail is opened up and the fresh ground is on the inside
Ask yourself if a trend has any logical explanation to it
Year after year you will get horses from wide out in the Totesport mile being backed because the meeting has thrown a few winners wide, thus forgetting that on Thursday of the meeting the false rail is opened up and the fresh ground is on the inside
Ask yourself if a trend has any logical explanation to it
everyone uses trends.
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them
Curiously, on the trends I use the top picks have come second in each of the Irish, Grand and Scottish Nationals this season. Irritating as I rarely back e/w 
stopped relying on 'em for the National after I eliminated all 40 horses one year!
Several recent Gold Cups have been like that as well (another strong trends race). It races another general point to add to Tom's excellent post above (though perhaps it's just an aspect of weighting) - what do trends followers do when nothing meets all the trends?
everyone uses trends.
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them
I think you mean "too" stupid and "they're" using them, jasey
Case closed imo.
bud and headmaster are to stupid to know there using them
I think you mean "too" stupid and "they're" using them, jasey
Case closed imo.
Ha ha relying on Mordin.
have you seen his long term record in the National
have you seen his long term record in the National
What has been overlooked is the fact that JUDORICK cribbed
MORDINS, made up statistics, FRENCH BREDS are not a drawback as anyone who knows the history of the Grand National, 5 year old won in the early 1920s, 2 more FBs in last 3 years,
a 4yo has won the NATIONAL, yet we saddle ourselves by using tight margins, if we used all of the stupid parameters espoused by people like MORDIN , then I would NEVER have backed
JAY TRUMP or RHYME'N'REASON because one was American owned and the other had won more than MORDINS number of wins in a season idea.
I operate a system which OCCASIONALLY throws up the winners of big races, but we must remember that some horses REAL ability is hidden in the way of plots.
MORDINS, made up statistics, FRENCH BREDS are not a drawback as anyone who knows the history of the Grand National, 5 year old won in the early 1920s, 2 more FBs in last 3 years,
a 4yo has won the NATIONAL, yet we saddle ourselves by using tight margins, if we used all of the stupid parameters espoused by people like MORDIN , then I would NEVER have backed
JAY TRUMP or RHYME'N'REASON because one was American owned and the other had won more than MORDINS number of wins in a season idea.
I operate a system which OCCASIONALLY throws up the winners of big races, but we must remember that some horses REAL ability is hidden in the way of plots.
^
Especially so in a big handicap like the Grand National.
Especially so in a big handicap like the Grand National.
What was VENETIA doing on Saturday, unless she believes that her horse can and will carry the high weight he will be allotted, especially after a Gold Cup, grueler?
Does anyone remember what the new criteria are for entry to the National, please?
Seem to remember that a win in a 2 and a half mile 'chase, is part of
the qualifying rules, am I right?
Seem to remember that a win in a 2 and a half mile 'chase, is part of
the qualifying rules, am I right?
Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
I think conditions are first 4 in 3 miles plus; OR 120 plus; 7 years plus. We should know the entries tomorrow or Wednesday.
Enries will be out sometime today-usually around lunch time.
Anyone else think The Package has a big chance in this?
I've done the spreadsheet for 85 runners now but have not looked deeply into it yet
Alright Rick, hope you are doing well pal. Out of interest, how does Across The Bay score on your shortlist? He is the only horse I fancy for the National and liked his chances even before he won the graded hurdle race yesterday and now he has shown his well being again, i like his chances even more.
hello mate, he come out joint 64th on the list
if you PM with an e-mail address I will send you the sheet and my initial analysis mate
hope you and your bruv are well
if you PM with an e-mail address I will send you the sheet and my initial analysis mate
hope you and your bruv are well
jumped to joint 41st after hurdles race (Across the Bay)
Very interesting Rick, thanks very much for the email. I agree with your top selection, it looks like it could have been a long term project.
yup get on for as much as you can without scaring the market, trade it back later
as you know judorick i have bet seabass but one other on my shortlist using trends and looking at mordins stats is alfie sherrin the big danger for him is actually getting in
Alfie Sherrin is my second biggest bet boy wonder
expect remarkable improvement if he runs at Cheltenham. I'm sure they will get him in
expect remarkable improvement if he runs at Cheltenham. I'm sure they will get him in
whole bunches of National entries out for a run in the next few days
one that is on my radar is QUINZ. Worth a cheap bet in the national market
one that is on my radar is QUINZ. Worth a cheap bet in the national market
thanks judorick i am a fan of the package was on him when just beaten by chief dan george at festival but got him this year in badger ales i wasnt convinced he enjoyed his first experience of aintree in dont push its national but he was only 7 one major negative for me is that the last 24 national winners had all had 3 career chase wins as it stands the package has 2 thank you for your information and all the best i think i wii settle with seabass and alfie sherrin unless the package gains that 3rd win before aintree
bw
Hasn't Alfie Sherrin only won twice over fences?
Hasn't Alfie Sherrin only won twice over fences?
with the changing face of the national many trends will do an about turn especially weight carried i work off 19 varying trends the stongest five of mine with 100pc are won over at least 3m, won a class 1 or class 2 chase, won at least 3 chases,2-5 outings since august and finally if run over the national fences must have been placed. a run in last 52 days is 23 from 24
Where does Midnight Chase appear on your list? Has good staying form on good ground although usually at Cheltenham. Been dropped a good few lb since last year.
his position depends on how much the weights rise but he was in the top 20
I agree with your initial thoughts on The Package. Will it run again before the big day ? I note it isn't entered for a race prior.
The Package is entered in the handicap chase on the first day of the festival.
afraid not Meat mate, too young and too inexperienced
two years or 3 years time if they plan his campaign carefully
two years or 3 years time if they plan his campaign carefully
Ok good luck in your selections.
If Saint Are manages to somehow get round without falling (a big if) it will run extremely well in my opinion.
Cheers
If Saint Are manages to somehow get round without falling (a big if) it will run extremely well in my opinion.
Cheers
Out of interest Judorick which horse do you think will eb the last to get in roughly?
I have a little interest on a horse weighted 9-10 but struggling to see it making the cut?
I have a little interest on a horse weighted 9-10 but struggling to see it making the cut?
Have also read that the The Package might bypass the festival and go to Donnie for the Grimthorpe.
I will do some work on the entries and estimate the bottom weight - there could be a ballot if several are trying to get in. Get back on that one
Yes, Grimthorpe could be used for the Package but whatever, he is sure to have a run
Yes, Grimthorpe could be used for the Package but whatever, he is sure to have a run
Thanks judorick. That would be appreciated.
Just been reading through this thread - it is a credit to you judorick. Very informative.
Just been reading through this thread - it is a credit to you judorick. Very informative.
Agreed judo, very encouraging.
I normally look around the 72nd to 77th horses on the list for the cut off point, that brings in backstage through to Cloudy lane.
I normally look around the 72nd to 77th horses on the list for the cut off point, that brings in backstage through to Cloudy lane.
Thought Rare Bob ran a solid trial today and came out best at the National weights in the Bobbyjo. Looks like he's being trained for it and hopefully will get a run and good ground.
Any chance according to the list Judo?
Any chance according to the list Judo?
yes on the list quite well up there in the top 20 iirc( It's all quite tight down to 20 ish places so I am concentrating on the ones at the top and the ones who have RPRs much higher than the BHA mark they are set to run off)
a few negatives on other trends not on the list and I've dismissed him solely because of the number of races he has had which seems a major negative but there's nothing to say he can't run well
I have a (long) short list of 13 like in the OP of this thread and I will post it up nearer the race but Rare Bob is not on it I can tell you. Be interesting to see Mordins list eventually
a few negatives on other trends not on the list and I've dismissed him solely because of the number of races he has had which seems a major negative but there's nothing to say he can't run well
I have a (long) short list of 13 like in the OP of this thread and I will post it up nearer the race but Rare Bob is not on it I can tell you. Be interesting to see Mordins list eventually
Cheers Judo. Got him at real fancy prices and will hope for the best.
that's what I'm doing, getting on at fancy prices and hoping they shorten up to smear the green all round, well at least break even no matter what - not specifically looking for the winner now especially with trials still to come
have just took the 16/1 ew CAPPA BLEU with laddies..hoping for a good run at least..
he is 3rd or 4th on my list and very very solid
give a good run for the money if he gets round safely
GL
give a good run for the money if he gets round safely
GL
Hi judorick. Any news on your analysis for which will be roughly the last horse do scrape into the National?
something like Matuhi who was 66 on the original list? maybe 4 or 5 lower than him which was...Major Malarkey
wouldn't worry, all those right at the bottom have little chance in all probability
wouldn't worry, all those right at the bottom have little chance in all probability
I have my own derivitive of one of Mordin's older scoring methods. Can't abide elimination method. Alfier Sherrin is also towards the top of my list along with The Package (until his injury Organisedconfusion scored very heavily so will back early and speculatively for next year). Nevertheless I knew from a very long way off that Poker De Sivola would also score heavily and have some very fancy prices in the win and in particular the TBP market. Ferdy is doing his usual in saying the plan will now be next year but if (on paper it looks a big if but expect plenty to still drop out) he does get in I anticipate a big run as long as we're racing on anything better than soft. No point putting all his eggs in one basket for 2014, only for it to come up a bog and scupper any chance. Anyway, he's still in the entries despite what Ferdy said so make of that what you will.
My main concern re Alfie Sherrin and The Package is the stallions terrible record over four miles thus far. I hope that dual Ascot GC winner Kayf Tara's progeny are late developers because his offspring is building an unimpressive record over four miles plus. Of course The Package and Alfie Sherrin have already failed to complete over the distance and Planet Of Sound conked out alarmingly last year. Thankfully, much of a horse's stamina is derived from the dam and Alfie Sherrin hails from the family of Whitbread winner and one time GN favourite Beau. Out of him and The Package it is definitely Alfie I have more faith in. He is a truly massive horse in terms of his scope. Look at him in the JLT last year compared to Fruity. He's twice the length!
But the jury is most definitely out re Kayf Tara as a sire of extreme distance winners. Carruthers has won over 3m 4f but the furthest distance one has won over is 3m 6f when Dermatologiste won a low graded affair.
I'm on but I'm in no way convinced....yet.
My main concern re Alfie Sherrin and The Package is the stallions terrible record over four miles thus far. I hope that dual Ascot GC winner Kayf Tara's progeny are late developers because his offspring is building an unimpressive record over four miles plus. Of course The Package and Alfie Sherrin have already failed to complete over the distance and Planet Of Sound conked out alarmingly last year. Thankfully, much of a horse's stamina is derived from the dam and Alfie Sherrin hails from the family of Whitbread winner and one time GN favourite Beau. Out of him and The Package it is definitely Alfie I have more faith in. He is a truly massive horse in terms of his scope. Look at him in the JLT last year compared to Fruity. He's twice the length!
But the jury is most definitely out re Kayf Tara as a sire of extreme distance winners. Carruthers has won over 3m 4f but the furthest distance one has won over is 3m 6f when Dermatologiste won a low graded affair.
I'm on but I'm in no way convinced....yet.
how does quel esprit fare judo? a french bred grey will do me again 
How do Auroras Encore and Any Currency fit on the trends? Just looking at some lowly weighted outsiders who look like they will stay.
am hoping and praying Poker de sivola gets in be game on then massive price this horse ew
Waiting to see what Mordin himself comes up with in the Weekender on the Wednesday before the race
I will be posting my selection(s) next week, interesting stuff
need to see which end up in the Irish National first
need to see which end up in the Irish National first
Be interesting to see what it is. I'm really struggling to find a strong fancy this year so need all the help I can get. Stuck on Seabass and Cappa Bleu at the minute but not feeling overly great with Seabass carrying more weight and Cappa Bleu feels more of a placed rather than winning horse to me.
Cappa Bleu is very strong, well weighted and has a huge chance, I am on for a decent win GCW
you are right about Seabass. I have him breaking even right now, but he will struggle to confirm form with Cappa at the weights, certainly needs to improve plenty to win.
My advice is always to have several running for you (like 7 to 13 runners) and to give yourself the most chances of collecting
you are right about Seabass. I have him breaking even right now, but he will struggle to confirm form with Cappa at the weights, certainly needs to improve plenty to win.
My advice is always to have several running for you (like 7 to 13 runners) and to give yourself the most chances of collecting
What you keep on hearing all the time is to look out for horses who have "Run well in the race beforehand" it may have yielded some place returns, but apart from Amberleigh House and Hello Dandy, you'd have to go back to the Red Rum era to find a winner of the race who'd previously hit the frame in a previous National
How many of those who ran well managed to get back in off a lower mark the next year?
I wouldn't be taking 12s now but the ante post 26 before the Ascot race was good odds
Will look forward to you analysis, Rick.
I've just sent you a pm. And now you've disappeared
I'm off out now. Be back in a while.
I've just sent you a pm. And now you've disappeared
I'm off out now. Be back in a while.
*your
This friggin forum.
I'm sure there's a gremlin in here that tampers with our posts in transit
This friggin forum.
I'm sure there's a gremlin in here that tampers with our posts in transit
I have had hundreds of ante post bets, backed and laid 20+ horses many many times since the weights came out, some are non runners (backed Alfie Sherrin, laid Prince de Beauchene, Wyck Hill, Katenko)
I'm on 6. Doubt I will do any more.
Seabass @ 14.64
Cappa Bleu @ 15.54
Chicago Grey @ 18.49
Sunnyhill Boy @ 28
Rare Bob @ 38
Quinz @ 105
Best result (obviously) is Quinz. Worst winning result Seabass would be a 3-1 winning bet.
GL
Seabass @ 14.64
Cappa Bleu @ 15.54
Chicago Grey @ 18.49
Sunnyhill Boy @ 28
Rare Bob @ 38
Quinz @ 105
Best result (obviously) is Quinz. Worst winning result Seabass would be a 3-1 winning bet.
GL
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