Grand National
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Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
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I'll post a list of horses that won't win after the acceptors stage today. Too many in list right now. But think its pretty easy to eliminate over 50% of the field on grounds of stamina and/or not being well enough handicapped.
West End Rocker is the biggest joke at 18's - NO CHANCE whatever the ground. |
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Long odds-on less then 40 runners go to post this year wuth only 59 acceptors left and still 3 weeks to go.
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Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices
Chicago Grey 25 Becauseicouldntsee 60 Cappa Bleu 21 Sunnyhillboy 65 The Package 70 Always Right 46 The Midnight Club 40 Uncle Junior 130 Rare Bob 75 Killyglen 38 West End Rocker 20 Uncle Junior is the only runner from the initial sortlist to fail to make the latest forfeit stage leaving me with these: Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices 20 March 2012: Chicago Grey 24 Becauseicouldntsee 25 Cappa Bleu 21 Sunnyhillboy 21 The Package 38 Always Right 46 The Midnight Club 44 Rare Bob 50 Killyglen 27 West End Rocker 20 A good trading position with all of these shorter than at the start and likely to run |
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Positive noises from Jonjo and the Official handicapper
The trainer said: "Sunnyhillboy is also in good form. He stayed well at Cheltenham the other day and I think he'll probably get the trip. He's a contender hopefully. The BHA's head of handicapping, Phil Smith, says both Synchronised and Sunnyhillboy would be favourably treated in the National following their Cheltenham wins, although Sunnyhillboy, rather than his more illustrious stablemate, would be the more leniently treated. Smith said: "The slight advantage Synchronised has is that he is now on a mark of 168 after the Gold Cup and he'd be running in this race off a mark of 161 so technically he's 7lb well in. "Sunnyhillboy wasthe widest margin handicap winner at Cheltenham and has gone up 10lb so technically he is well in by that amount and the runner-up in his race, Becauseicouldntsee (20-1), has gone up 5lb so they would have a different rating now if I reframed the race." |
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Ok my list on who will NOT win on the basis they are too high in the weights or don't stay. Now i don't necessarily believe you need a super well handicapped horse to win but in my experience one of the reasonably handicapped horses that stay will run well so the following are deleted from my calculations. They may run ok but IMO will not WIN.
Ballabriggs Wierd Al Quel Esprit Calgary Bay Alpha Beat Planet of Sound Roberto Goldback Black Apalachi Deep Purple Psycho Tatenen According to Pete Shakalakaboomboom Westy End Rocker Rare Bob Treacle Pearlysteps Roulez Cool Tharawaat State of Play Swing Bill State of Play Hello Bud rest have no chance of getting in. Prolly could rule out a few more of the Irish but haven't reseached all of them but I'd be surprised if the winner isn't one of these: Prince de Beauchene Killyglen Chicago Grey Sunnyhillboy Cappa Bleu Midnight Chase Synchronised should he turn up. |
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pretty close to mine except I give Prince de Beauchene, Midnight Chase and Synchronised no chance
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a still think black apalachi could run well run well last day after long abscence think cappa bleu best of british
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Why would you give Prince De Beauchene no chance? Jumps well, stays well, goes in the ground, gonna have a good jock plus everything thats left HJ thats gone to good stable has improved.
Obvious national prep in that shows form after weights come out. Would surely be 7 or more higher now. Anyway foolish to discount that one IMO. On at 25's and 20's to decent amounts. Only bet 3 so far PDB, Killy, Chicago |
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Saw this posted on the RP site and thought it might be of interest to those who fancy Killyglen (me included) or Cappa Bleu.
'Word of warning re Cappa Bleu and Killyglen. Both have Strong Gale in them. From 36 runners since 1996 not one horse with Strong Gale in them has reached the first five home in the National. Worst stallion statistic in the race's history' Strong Gale's presence in Cappa Bleu's pedigree is going back a bit but nonetheless this is somewhat worrying if true |
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Sorry should read Strong Gale's presence in Killyglen's pedigree is going back a bit......
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Prince de Beauchene hits only 8 out of the 13 Mordin factors and came 62nd out of 83 in the original entries and that makes him an unlikely winner in my estimation
But in the end the actual winner won't make any difference to me because I will be greening up all round. Most of the ones I have backed have already shortened enough to trade out. |
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Breeding should never worry you about any horse, any race over jumps. Complete waste of time looking at it for jumps. Nothing is bred to stay nowadays and all the breeding is flat breeding bred to stay 1m4f max and the NH stayers are basically all freaks.
Analyse the horse and what he's done on the track. Trying to draw conclusions based on history of other horses, other years etc is just a pathetic way of looking at things. Katchit couldn't win CH, Saddlers Wells progeny couldn't win GC etc... |
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please don't use this thread for general discussion
thankyou |
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Sorry Judo, just though it may be of interest as the horses concerned are on your list.
Good work by the way...always look out for Mordin's picks in this race as he has a great strike rate |
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no sweat
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So far have fired a few bullets at the National, namely:
Chicago Grey @ 22 (currently top on my ratings) Killyglen @ 27 (running a big race last season before coming down a few out, and nice prep run) Rare Bob @ 60 (scores highly on trends, and price big enough to have a little dabble, though maybe an opportunity to lay off if / when price contracts) Seabass @ 28 - scores nicely on trends and falls under the "speculative but could be anything banner." According To Pete @ 85 - bit lower down on the trends score, but big enough price to deserve a nibble. West End Rocker scores highly, but need to think a bit more, as lack of recent run slightly offputting. Junior is interesting after his excellent weight-carrying trial. |
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Not sure if we're allowed to pose questions on this thread, judo, but if we are - may I ask what is wrong with Planet of Sound please budd?
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Depending on what trends you look at but a few negatives for Planet of Sound would be:
Weight - has to carry more than optimum at 11'05" and likely to have to carry at least a stone more than the bottom weight. Season runs - 2 is below the 'ideal' of 3-6 runs. |
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Nothing in particular, just he didn't pass enough of the Mordin factors to get into the top half of the spreadsheet. I will have a look later and see. He passed 9/13 factors and was 32nd of the original 83 entries, so now he is probably a bit nearer the top. I can't possibly say he can't win and indeed there are a whole bunch of runners on 9/13 and 8/13 and any could win.
The method is simply designed to create a shortlist to trade from and it has succeeded nicely. All that remains is to trade out now as all my selections are at the same or lower prices than I backed |
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how did neptunes collonges get on with these mordin factors please
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Neptune Collonges 8/13
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Anywhere where you can see these factors? Just want to see if any of them are outdated etc.
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I'm pretty sure they are
- raced off at least 137 in a handicap (inc. in the GN itself) - reached the first 3 in a chase with at least 13 runners - won over at least 3 miles - won over 3m3f+ or reached 1,2,3,4 in Welsh, Irish, Scots, Grand or Midland National - did not race as a novice in the previous season - have ever earned a RPR higher than 145 - completed course in field of 18 on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the last decade - set to carry 11st2lb or less - ran over hurdles this season - won no more than once in last 6 starts - were not bred in France - have not worn blinkers or visors this season - have had 15 or fewer starts over fences |
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spot on
and in the OP I explain how I whittled them down after putting them in order of how they scored. |
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Judo
I know someone else asked this already but where does Junior rank on this list? Mystified by his general exclusion from discussion (JOCI and Zilzal excepted) |
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Junior was 71st out of the original 83 on my filtered spreadsheet after passing only 7/13 of the Mordin factors. If he wins I will be gobsmacked - it is of course possible but he has major questions to answer as does Prince de Beauchene. Although by the time I green up they will be break even horses for me.
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It is interesting that Mordin does not include age (apart from the prior season novice stat) as one of his factors, when this clearly has a huge influence on a horse's chance (lower than 8 or older than 12).
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I did apply age as a filter after getting the list of qualifiers in order JOCI
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Whilst most of the factors make reasonable sense, some are just down right dangerous and out dated like the weight of 11st 2 or below.
The raced of 137+ is laughable and outdated too as you don't get in unless you are around 138,139. Whilst I think it may help some people to short list this way there is no escaping the fact that several of the top chances have been eliminated by this method. Nothing beats evaluating each horse on its merits. Clear example to me is PDB eliminated on this method and yet West End Rocker given a very positive chance. WER seriously has no chance on ratings (good ones at least). Anyways GL with all your picks. |
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judo, are we allowed to discuss the stats and their relevance on this thread? If so...
- raced off at least 137 in a handicap (inc. in the GN itself) - set to carry 11st 2lb or less - ran over hurdles this season - were not bred in France - won no more than once in last 6 starts ...are all cobblers imo    ....and - completed course in field of 18 on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the last decade ....smacks of backfit. If we're not, I apologise. |
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discuss what you like now- the whole point of the method is to produce a shortlist which has a high probability of including horses that will be well fancied, are proven to have a good chance of staying the trip, have the right balance of experience and class and so on. It a strategy designed to get me in a goos position
If you had followed me in at the time of the OP you would have backed Sunnyhill Boy at 65, Becausicouldntsee at 70, The Package at 75 and so on (the prices I took are in the OP). Trading from here will mean I can have my top qualifiers winning me decent money and the field doing no worse than breaking even. Job done as far as I am concerned |
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I'm with you Headmaster - factors backfitted to match previous results. Seen too much of this type of stuff to give it any credence.
To me its just another staying chase - got to stay, likely ground is good - good/soft, as there are likely to be some plots in race you gotta be reasonably well handicapped and gotta jump well and need a fair chunk of luck in running. Is there much more to it? |
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start a thread and explain your selections then Guru and get off mine, thanks
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I thought it was a forum mate. Didn't realise you have title deeds to the thread. Only like to hear good job, you the man, what profound analysis you have??
As you asked I backed 3 early when weights came out and not really rocket science. 300 Killyglen @ 38.5 - reasonably well handicapped, would have gone close last year IMO, jumps well, goes in ground, targeting race and bonus of some course experience. 300 Prince de Beauchene @ 23.5 - jumps well, likely improver moving yards as HJ was a $hite farmer trainer IMO gifted with good horses, stays and reasonably well handicapped and possibly very well handicapped should he improve as thought likely. 300 Chicago Grey @ 29.0 - Trainer targeting race, jumps well, stays well, reasonably well handicapped. Touch of class about it and should travel really well through the race. Be surprised if it doesn't trade sub 5.0. Anyway not saying your picks are bad especially as you're trading out but its not rocket science to get a good position for the national. Take the best price when weights come out for a few that are targeting the race, are reasonably well handicapped, jump and stay - hola! |
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Grand National Final Shortlist and Betfair Prices (price to back)
7th March 23rd March Chicago Grey 25 22 Becauseicouldntsee 60 24 Cappa Bleu 21 20 Sunnyhillboy 65 18.5 The Package 70 50 Always Right 46 55 The Midnight Club 40 50 Uncle Junior 130 eliminated Rare Bob 75 50 Killyglen 38 27 West End Rocker 20 20 Apart from Uncle Junior who was eliminated, all apart from 2 runners are at the same price or significantly shorter. I did state clearly in the OP that Sunnyhill Boy was my strongest candidate for trading at the price and he is now some 46 points shorter and combined with Becauseicouldntsee, who was second on my shortlist is now 36 points shorter. So that's two of my top 4 that have shortened significantly and I will now be looking to gradually reduce my liability by laying away where I can. |
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Judo, it was very nice of you to put this information up but you are no oracle mate, in fact i think you are a total chump. I am sorry to be so blunt, but who goes round telling people not to post on YOUR thread? Pathetic.
You keep telling us "The method is simply designed to create a shortlist to trade from ... blah blah blah" but then go on to say how you'd be gobsmacked if so and so won or how a certain horse has no chance. |
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gay trading thread imo... Need a betting thread instead
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gay trading thread imo... Need a betting thread instead
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as I keep saying to others, if you have some selections and opinions let's see you start a thread and put up some bets and prices instead of coming on here criticising my work
and we will see who is a "total chump" after the race. Phucking easy to sling insults around at someone who has put a load of effort into a race. Where's your bets then Mr 26 Posts since 2003? Huh? Let's see you post something reasoned. Now phuck off |
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"You keep telling us "The method is simply designed to create a shortlist to trade from ... blah blah blah" but then go on to say how you'd be gobsmacked if so and so won or how a certain horse has no chance."
The method is a BETTING method designed to get me in a good market position This does not prevent me from having a personal opinion about what may or may not win so I am perfectly entitled to say that I will be gobsmacked if certain runners win the race. The two things are not mutually exclusive but then someone as thick as you "Lino - 26 posts since 2003" wouldn't be able to understand a position like that. You are obviously a mug guesser with no method, no approach and undoubtedly a long term loser |