Grand National
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Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
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every one who puts up anything remotly approaching a bit of logic is slated .why is this?is it the human condition to criticise?i think judorick is very perceptive and logical.im enjoying the thread(til the knockers came on)and lets see how it evolves.im on one horse ,because i couldnt see for several reasons.it has less weight that last year.and fallers early on have a great record the following year.
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Hope I'm not in that group you speak of, kavvie, but maybe I should put some meat on my rather flippant bone from earlier.
- raced off at least 137 in a handicap (inc. in the GN itself) Self explanatory. You have to be 137 9 times out of 10 to get in the race. You may as well say 'must have four legs'. - set to carry 11st 2lb or less Outdated, but hopefully you all know the reasons why by now. I note, however, that this magic marker has gone up from 'must be under 11st' through 'must be under 11st 1lb' to 'must carry 11st 2lb or less'. I predict this magic marker will continue to rise until another horse wins the race off top-weight, which will happen by the way, then we can forget about it and move onto something a little less tiresome. - ran over hurdles this season I would conceded this hints that the horse has been aimed at the Grand National, but many other horses will be layed out for this who have not run over hurdles. The actual act of running over hurdles does not improve your Grand National prospects. - were not bred in France Yawn. Bloodlines are so mixed up, most French breds trace back to a British-bred at some point so what exactly are we saying with this one? Maybe that Martin Pipe threw a load of french-bred past-it non-stayers at the race from the mid-80s that ultimately given us some negative French-bred stats? It's meaningless, as Mon Mome proved and others will continue to prove. The FR suffix is dubious anyway....and presumably Argentinia, Slovakia, Chilean breds are ok? Blimey. - won no more than once in last 6 starts A stat aimed at horses being well-handicapped. There are much better ways of finding out who is ahead of the assessor, and I would imagine a small percentage of horses go to post in the National each year that have won more than once, so their success or lack of it means zilch. Judo - good thread mate, please do not take the above as a personal swipe...as you said, your work is done already  |
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I think some of the stats are probably a little out of date but it is all open to how you interpret them, especially the weight one. The way I have looked at it is since 2005 the bottom weight in the race has not been ten stone and therefore we have not had any horse who have had to race from out of the handicap. On the racing post website I have managed to go back as far as Rhyme N Reason in 1988 and the winner for each race has been within a stone of bottom weight. You could argue that this is potentially a reason why we have seen horses who have carried over 11 stone perform better and even win the race recently.
The official rating stat is more than likely now redundant and a better way of looking at it might be to look for a horse who has won a chase of over £17k and I think the last non qualifier was Royal Athlete in 1995, although he had finished 3rd in the gold cup. I think the wins stat is also redundant and the one which is definitely not needed any more is that the horse has won over 3 miles as that is now a pre requisite for getting into the race. Another interesting stat is the one about a horse having raced over hurdles during the current season and since 2000 only 2 horses haven't done this. Does this mean hurdlers are sure fire bets for the national, obviously not, but it suggests that the trainer has protected the horse’s handicap mark throughout the season while being able to give it a run. It is a good thread and the stats/trends are only one angle. There are others, such as the age of horses, which aren't included or how recently a horse had its last run. I am no expert in equine fitness but is race sharpness better than a racecourse gallop or good spin at home? Where do you draw the line about how long ago is recent? Again I am not an expert but if we use an abitrary figure of 6 weeks, only Hedgehunter and Comply or Die broke this, and then then only by less than a week. I also think the number of chase runs could be important in terms of a horses experience but not for a maximum number, more a minimum. Again going back on the racing post website only Minnehoma in 1994 had not made it into double figures before the race. Taking some of these into consideration wouldn’t make the list much different and the 4 horses this would strengthen the cases of are According to Pete Killyglen Rare Bob Sunnyhillboy Good thread, some differing but still valid opinions. Let’s try and keep it about the race. |
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It is indeed a good thread and the work put in by the OP
One reason i still wouldnt want to be with the higher weights is the pace of the race, probably a lot to do with them being able to attack the fences more, when Crisp and Red Rum did that time that wasnt broken for 17 years it was on ground given as firm(it wouldnt be given even if it was now) now on ground that is given as good the last two winners have clocked a time comparable to 73 There may be a top weight winning before i croak it, but they havent been anywhere near as frequent as they were in the 35 years before Red Rum, probably due to jumping ability being more at a premium then Oh and there were less horse fatalities in the 50s and 60s than in the last 20 years |
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i am strong on prince de beauchene and sunnyhillboy can you explain why you dont fancy prince de beauchene please judorick as in my view he ticks EVERY BOX
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In my view he is far from guaranteed to stay ...has in the past been a weak finisher...and I'm not convinced that he'll take to the fences...all in all he's far too short a price given the uncertainties.
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well i jumped in and took the 16's right after his bobbyjo victory i cant think why he wont take to the fences he stays 3m well enough as with alot of national runners noone knows whether they will stay 4m 4f but what we do know is that he is trained by willie mullins and hopefully ridden by ruby walsh i rest my case
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far from guaranteed to stay???
The way he stayed on against Huka Lodge [a horse that stays 10 miles] over 3m1f in heavy would suggest to me thats the least thing you should be concerned about. Lightening fast ground would be my concern but sure they'll be watering heavily. |
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totally agree with Chicago but i do like Calgary if the weather stays fine think he settles well and has a touch of class.
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Something that mordin seems to have missed,and it's more an observation than a stat,horses that take their time in adjusting from hurdles to fences(novice stage) rarely do well in the national.Based on this Sunnyhillboy would be a negative for me, also anyone thinking of backing killyglen would be well advised to watch last years race again his jumping got lower and lower until he eventually fell, wouldn't fancy him to get round this year.
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I fancy Calgary Bay too, lockup
I hope Judo's coming back to carry on with his thread. |
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Rocky,your talking utter pony
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jasey,you back a horse off the back of some one else's analysis, without looking at it's form yourself and then tell me Im talking pony.
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Yeh and its got me a cracking bet,his price is going down,which is the point of this thread.How do you know i never looked at its form,i backed him in irish national last year.
Tell me what have you backed? |
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I very rarely bet antepost and haven't in this case.If you have backed shb to green up then you have got a good bet,if you let it run IMVHO you will loose your stake as the horse wont take to it just as it didn't take to fences initially, either way good luck.
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I would be worried about Chicago greys run style in this granted a similar surface to last year even tho i fancy him. Alfa beat is a hoooge price 4 me even though he doesn't fit the age stat, stats, by design will always be broken.
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Yeh did'nt take to ground more like,considering shb hates fences,only one fall in his career
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yup my work is done, I had all my money down before I posted the thread at the averages given in the OP
A couple of people have seen the spreadsheets I built for the race and I am sure they will vouch for the sheer volume of work that went into it (and a lot of deep thought too I can tell you). I literally looked at almost every run of all the original entrants racing careers. I looked at and thought about the patterns in the way they were campaigned. Read the comments from trainers after victories. Recorded the 13 Mordin factors and checked for going preferences. I spent most of the time between the issuing of the weights on 14 Feb to posting this thread working on this race (normal racing was rubbish and I was pretty much waiting for Cheltenham so I used the time to do this instead) As such, I will not be leaving my liability exposed and will certainly trade away nearer the race. I have yet to decide exactly what balance I will leave on each runner though. More deep thought required for that |
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It will hopefully reap rewards for all the effort.
I've done quite a lot but not half as much as you by the sound of it. Killyglen Chicago Grey Rare Bob According to Pete My selections so far (most wedge on the first two). |
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Rocky, can't agree with your comment about Killyglen. Probably no better jumper in the field. If you watch the re-play of last years race you will see he jumped immaculately until firstly Ballabriggs blundered in front of him and then weaved about in front of him at the next two fences.He actually cleared the fence ok but dropped his hind legs onto it.Think it's the only time he has fallen or even looked like falling.
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i think ballabriggs will place again and west end rocker and chicago grey will be bets for me but im already on at 25/1 and 16/1 for prince de beauchene this thing hacked up end of february the win was so easy and he walked across the line hes fresh and ruby will be on board im counting my hundreds already it stands to win.you havent got this on the shortlist its the best favourite in a national for a long time.
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i think ballabriggs will place again and west end rocker and chicago grey will be bets for me but im already on at 25/1 and 16/1 for prince de beauchene this thing hacked up end of february the win was so easy and he walked across the line hes fresh and ruby will be on board im counting my hundreds already it stands to win.you havent got this on the shortlist its the best favourite in a national for a long time.
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Prince de Beauchene came 62nd out of the original 83 entries on my spreadsheet and passed just 8 out of 13 Mordin factors so I am afraid I have to disagree that he is the best favourite in years. In fact, I think he is one of the worst but then the game is all about opinions and you may well say "I told you so" after the race.
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It's all about opinions bindaree,your right he has only fallen the once and I was at Carlisle when he jumped like a buck to win his first novice chase, but if you go through the form his jumping as sometimes been poor especially in the pulled up efforts.
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judorick did you know that ruby walsh will ride prince de beauchene and he gets the choice of a few
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I couldn't give a monkey's who is riding him, he won't stay and there are much stronger candidates but you can tell me you told me so if he wins. I will have got myself all green anyway
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Judorick - congrats on developing your position but if you think PDB won't stay would you explain how he was staying on like a trooper over 3m1f in heavy against Huka Lodge (a ten miler) drawing 41 lengths clear of another 10 miler in 3rd.
Probabilities are he won't win - I'd make him about a 10/1 shot but for any system to make him 63rd of original entry is seriously flawed. You're system is looking at distances horses have run rather than how they stay. People who've backed him at big prices have every chance as do you with some of your picks and your system does not hold up enough to inspection for you to dismiss him especially on the grounds of staying. Shows you really don't know the horse that well. You may get lucky on the day but really if you think the method you have is even close to bomb proof you are seriously deluded and up on yourself. Your method has a lot of holes in it, you made reasonable analysis and selected a few with a chance at big prices as have many people. To claim anything other than be mildly shrewd and a little lucky is beyond what your analysis has shown. |
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phuck you guru, the horse came 62nd on my analysis and that makes hime an unlikely winner
it is a shame he is not running and I don't have to get lucky on the day because I will be winning no matter what happens and it is not my system you kunnt, it is the Nick Mordin system which I have adapted for my own purposes. And I know all the horses really well because I spent 3 weeks pretty much looking at every run of every horse as I built my spreadsheet and compared them to the 13 factors. |
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Phuck the nick mordin system what about the sonofgod system,23 stats(all met by recent winners),conduit mare profles(all met by recent winners),strong national Family numbers.
Coming soon  |
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profiles(correction)
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So you spent 3 weeks looking at a race and concluded PDB is a non stayer! Specsavers would be my suggestion.
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It's disappointing that The Package won't be running.
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1st time
On what basis |
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phuck you guru, the horse came 62nd on my analysis and that makes hime an unlikely winner
it is a shame he is not running and I don't have to get lucky on the day because I will be winning no matter what happens and it is not my system you kunnt, it is the Nick Mordin system which I have adapted for my own purposes. And I know all the horses really well because I spent 3 weeks pretty much looking at every run of every horse as I built my spreadsheet and compared them to the 13 factors. judorick - It's posts like this that make you a pathetic nuisance to the forum. You seem to believe you have the right to speak down to everyone when it comes to race analysis, yet your selection methods are as haywire as those used by the general man in the street. A few people have questioned some of the merit of the factors used by Mordin's system (and adopted by yours), but you have a clever knack of dismissing them as either being mugs who are only here to moan when they are either subjective or short in their reasoning or just state the obvious when they actually put some meat on the bones of their argument(s) (i.e. This horse came x on my list of y so I don't think it has a chance). Clearly you operate with a wealth of knowledge about the racing game, but this begs the question - why start threads like these if you actually don't want to discuss the topics within your reasoning? Is it just so that you can tell us all how much of a Billy Big Balls you are when you green out in advance of the big race on some of the better fancies? Without wanting to get into a d**k measuring contest, most people with foresight and race reading skills can green out in advance on the National. And this brings me on to the nonsensical notion that you can tell people not to discuss things on your thread! There are some mugs, some a*****les, and some compulsive liars on this forum, but the idea that you are big enough to usher what you perceive as being small fry back to the quiet, dark shallows is mind boggling! I suppose you did have the good grace to put "long post" in brackets in the thread title so those of us with small brains and an inability to read more than a few lines wouldn't have to be troubled by such an intellectual contribution. Absolutely pathetic. And one last parting shot - the irony in your 'holier than thou' approach to race analysis and "discussion" with other forumites is that you bring less to the table than the so-called mugs, who voice a subjective opinion and justify why they think they are right. Anyone could do what you do - it simply takes time to whittle down big pools of data and apply some statistical trends to whichever race you are doing. There is actually very little original thought in anything you do or say, and while I'm sure you make money from such a disciplined approach, I am sure someone with your outlook on racing finds it hard to handle the fact that you will never be a talented, subjective race reader, which I'll bet you really want to be. As one other forumite mentioned, if after weeks of in-depth study you came to the conclusion that Prince De Beauchene would not stay at Aintree, you might well have dodged a bullet now that he is a non-runner. As you will see, I have made but a handful of posts and am certain you will tear me to pieces (or try to) on that basis. In a funny way that tactic sums up your personality - you seem to take a stats-based approach in writing infrequent contributors' posts off as being nonsense, without actually reading the content within them. Much like you'll dismiss horses because they don't fit a long-standing trend, even though the talented punters and traders see through the numbers to an extent. |
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Anyone who puts the amount of time and work that Judorick has done here deserves to get a result and he's obviously in a relatively strong position. Stats are no doubt an indicator especially at this time of the NH season as connections will have been planning this for a long time.
Personally I'm pleased to see Sunnyhillboy comes out well as I think he'll benefit from the step up in trip and the one thing recent Nationals have demonstrated is the need for a well handicapped horse which he clearly is. He went off about 7-2 for the 2 1/2 mile chase at Cheltenham in December (heavily backed so presumably considered well in) but has been crying our for a step up in trip, which I believe helps his jumping, which is potentially his achilles heel. On old form with Great Endeavour he'd have to be considered well in and could be just the type to creep into the race and have a bit up his sleeve in the last 1/2 mile, certainly his Cheltenham victory suggested that. I'm hoping the layers are doing so because McCoy is going to ride Synchronised and, if he runs, he'd be a big danger from a low weight. |
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festivalgal
How much time did you waste,writing that rubbish |
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You've had your say Festivalgal...now get Stuffed!
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What a condescending little toe rag judorick is,ive long been of this opinion of him,this thread just confirms it.
príck |
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Winner on the shortlist 10 of last 13 years including Mon Mome!
 You pikced over a 1/4 of the field I should hope you get 10/13 ffs |
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there were 83 runners when I did the analysis and I picked 11 of them so that is not a quarter, it is nearly an eighth and out of them
9 remain and if you check the prices I backed in early March you will see most of them are shorter now. Anyway, whatever |