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Grand National
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These 230 comments are related to the topic:
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
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Replies: 230
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What has been overlooked is the fact that JUDORICK cribbed
MORDINS, made up statistics, FRENCH BREDS are not a drawback as anyone who knows the history of the Grand National, 5 year old won in the early 1920s, 2 more FBs in last 3 years, a 4yo has won the NATIONAL, yet we saddle ourselves by using tight margins, if we used all of the stupid parameters espoused by people like MORDIN , then I would NEVER have backed JAY TRUMP or RHYME'N'REASON because one was American owned and the other had won more than MORDINS number of wins in a season idea. I operate a system which OCCASIONALLY throws up the winners of big races, but we must remember that some horses REAL ability is hidden in the way of plots. |
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^
Especially so in a big handicap like the Grand National. |
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What was VENETIA doing on Saturday, unless she believes that her horse can and will carry the high weight he will be allotted, especially after a Gold Cup, grueler?
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Does anyone remember what the new criteria are for entry to the National, please?
Seem to remember that a win in a 2 and a half mile 'chase, is part of the qualifying rules, am I right? |
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Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
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Bit sloppy with my example should have read 2 and a half mile plus.
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I think conditions are first 4 in 3 miles plus; OR 120 plus; 7 years plus. We should know the entries tomorrow or Wednesday.
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Enries will be out sometime today-usually around lunch time.
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Anyone else think The Package has a big chance in this?
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Yes he is one i am keeping an eye on
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I've done the spreadsheet for 85 runners now but have not looked deeply into it yet
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Alright Rick, hope you are doing well pal. Out of interest, how does Across The Bay score on your shortlist? He is the only horse I fancy for the National and liked his chances even before he won the graded hurdle race yesterday and now he has shown his well being again, i like his chances even more.
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hello mate, he come out joint 64th on the list
if you PM with an e-mail address I will send you the sheet and my initial analysis mate hope you and your bruv are well |
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64th, pretty low
 Cheers i will do much obliged |
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jumped to joint 41st after hurdles race (Across the Bay)
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Very interesting Rick, thanks very much for the email. I agree with your top selection, it looks like it could have been a long term project.
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yup get on for as much as you can without scaring the market, trade it back later
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as you know judorick i have bet seabass but one other on my shortlist using trends and looking at mordins stats is alfie sherrin the big danger for him is actually getting in
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Alfie Sherrin is my second biggest bet boy wonder
expect remarkable improvement if he runs at Cheltenham. I'm sure they will get him in |
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thank you who comes out on top please
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whole bunches of National entries out for a run in the next few days
one that is on my radar is QUINZ. Worth a cheap bet in the national market |
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@ Boy Wonder
top was The Package |
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thanks judorick i am a fan of the package was on him when just beaten by chief dan george at festival but got him this year in badger ales i wasnt convinced he enjoyed his first experience of aintree in dont push its national but he was only 7 one major negative for me is that the last 24 national winners had all had 3 career chase wins as it stands the package has 2 thank you for your information and all the best i think i wii settle with seabass and alfie sherrin unless the package gains that 3rd win before aintree
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bw
Hasn't Alfie Sherrin only won twice over fences? |
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thanks sawyer dont know how i missed that
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number of wins over fences is not on my list
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with the changing face of the national many trends will do an about turn especially weight carried i work off 19 varying trends the stongest five of mine with 100pc are won over at least 3m, won a class 1 or class 2 chase, won at least 3 chases,2-5 outings since august and finally if run over the national fences must have been placed. a run in last 52 days is 23 from 24
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Where does Midnight Chase appear on your list? Has good staying form on good ground although usually at Cheltenham. Been dropped a good few lb since last year.
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his position depends on how much the weights rise but he was in the top 20
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I agree with your initial thoughts on The Package. Will it run again before the big day ? I note it isn't entered for a race prior.
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needs a run imo
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The Package is entered in the handicap chase on the first day of the festival.
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no surprise
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judorick do you like Saint Are? ;)
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afraid not Meat mate, too young and too inexperienced
two years or 3 years time if they plan his campaign carefully |
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Ok good luck in your selections.
If Saint Are manages to somehow get round without falling (a big if) it will run extremely well in my opinion. Cheers |
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Out of interest Judorick which horse do you think will eb the last to get in roughly?
I have a little interest on a horse weighted 9-10 but struggling to see it making the cut? |
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Have also read that the The Package might bypass the festival and go to Donnie for the Grimthorpe.
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I will do some work on the entries and estimate the bottom weight - there could be a ballot if several are trying to get in. Get back on that one
Yes, Grimthorpe could be used for the Package but whatever, he is sure to have a run |
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Thanks judorick. That would be appreciated.
Just been reading through this thread - it is a credit to you judorick. Very informative. |