zerohype

Hi,

English Football, The Championship

Lay Watford away to Reading @4.4s

Kick Off 3pm GMT

Analysis

Watford are starting to struggle, and as a team they are very inexperienced. Which as I see it, they will have runs or wins and losses. I anticipate this current poor run of form to continue, as are struggling defensively. In their last 6 games they conceded an average of 2 goals a game, scoring 26 on the road, but conceding 23. Injuries at the back obviously haven't helped. 

Reading have to keep Watford's leading scorer Danny Graham well marked, but the positive news is, their second top scorer Marvin Sordell is likely to be out of this game.

I can honestly say this game is not about the form of both sides, as both are without a win in 6 games. What I do like about this game is, although Reading haven't won recently they have been playing well, and against very tough opposition. They should be looking forward to playing at home, where they are strong team with a record of W6D6L3, scoring 24 and conceding 15.  They are a tough team to actually beat at home.

Hopefully the odds will stay below 4.50, as liquidity in the market should pick up. So be patient with your unmatched bets if you can.  Reading to Win or Draw this one.

Good Luck,

Hi,

I'm really pleased with the positive start to Betfair blogging my free tips, 5 out of 5 WINS!  I just have to keep up the winning streak then, no pressure! lol. 

Good day today though, going exactly to plan with two confident wins.

Bochum 2 - 0 Dusseldorf Predicted Bochum Win/Draw to Lay Dusseldorf around odds of 4.00

Girona 3 - 1 Alcorcon Predicted Girona Win/Draw to Lay Alcorcon around odds of 4.00

So we got some real value there.  As you may have read, I trade off around 75% of profit when I can, and recommend this as part the strategy with my selections. 

I will post my trade off details once I've been matched, so you can follow if it suits. On the flip side though, if you've been following my tips all year through my website, Twitter or Faceache feed, out of the 28 selections you would have only lost once.  Which was at lay odds of around 4.00.

If you just left all the lay bets until the end of play, I understand the profit I would have made so far this year would be greater, with the strike being around 99% for left in play tips.

Trading the Palermo v Fiorentina game which lost, it meant when Palermo went ahead I locked in my profit and avoided the upset.  Keeping a winning run.  So in the Long Term I think given some games will lose, it keeps you ahead by trading off at that point. 

Information and opinions drive the market, and if people think a team is going to win and it goes ahead, obviously if you're laying the other team, at that point the market will shoot up giving great trade off opportunities.  With my selections this is always the case, if the home team goes ahead first, or at any stage.  So I either take the hit if I have no opportunity to trade, or get out when it's good.

I could be completely wrong, but at least I'm still winning! ;o)

I will have more selections over the weekend, and possibly post one before bed.

Thanks for following.

Hi,

Girona v Alcorcon Layed Alcorcon at 3.85, and when Girona made it 1-0 I've just Hedged off at odds of 11.50 for approx 75% of expected profit.

If you're on until the end it looks a competitive game, but Girona are looking the better team with more chances on goal.

Good luck!

I will post late this evening for tomorrow action, just checking some form.

Took the back price at 12.00 after laying for 3.95 in the Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf game, when it went 1-0, and made about 75% expected profit.

If you're on until the end, it's looking good for a Bochum win/draw, as Fortuna are fouling and picking up cards, they may go down to 10 men, good luck!

Hi All,

Girona v Alcorcon Spanish Segunda Division

Lay Alcorcon @3.85, no higher than 6.00

Kick Off 8pm GMT

I've tipped this game on statistics alone, as Alcorcon have a really weak away record against a very strong home record of Girona.  Alcorcon having W1D2L8 this season away, with only 1 game scoring 2 or more goals, and no clean sheets, they seem to fall apart on the road, but at home they are a different story doing very well.  It's the same situation with Girona, at home they boast an impressive W6D4L1, with 7 games since a loss, and 8 games since a home loss.  On the road they are shakey, but at home seemingly unbeatable.  I'd say these teams are quite evenly matched, but based on past performance, Girona look very good value to Win or Draw at home with odds under 4.00 to lay Alcorcon. 

Good Luck! 

Hi All,

Fist one today is:

Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf, Lay Fortuna Dusseldorf @ 4.00, no higher than 6.00

Kick off 5pm GMT

Bochum are on a promotion push and playing some great football.  Fortuna Dusseldorf have also improved of late climbing to 9th in the league, but are nowhere near as consistent and not scoring enough on the road. They let in too many, with an away scoring record of 8 scored 18 conceded.  There away form this season reads, W2D2L7, with only 2 away games scoring 2 or more goals, with 2 away clean sheets this season after 22 games.  Not really prolific.

Whereas Bochum have scored 18 at home and conceded 14, placed 3rd in the league with a home record of W7D1L3, they look a strong outfit, had a good season last year and have carried on where they left off.

I fancy Bochum to Win or Draw, and at odds of 4.00 to LAY Fortuna Dusseldorf at the moment, I think this is a value lay.

I should have one or two more posted in the next couple of hours, so check back.

Good luck!

Hi All,

I've been over tonight's games quite a few times, as football trader/punter I'm keen to find us all some winners, but I cannot commit to any of them with confidence.  There are some interesting games coming up in the next few days, and just for the sake of a punt I won't be tipping any Europa games later.

I may find some value in other markets later today, if so I'll post, but otherwise it will be tomorrow from me.

Good luck if you are having a punt tonight.
 

It's risky business trading or betting on the Champions league, and FA Cup coming up this weekend.  I have been looking at some very appealing Championship matches and Italian Serie A over the weekend, so will post either later or tomorrow when I've given it more analysis.

Good luck tonight if you're having a punt!

Valencia 1 Schalke 1

Predicted Valencia to Win or Draw, and a low scoring match - WIN

Well I didn't get matched at odds of 5.00 to lay Schalke, but I was right about the outcome and the correct score being low.  Managed to green up the correct score market in the 65th minute for 10% profit, and then turn off what was a very dull game to watch.

My subscription selection also won, with Cardiff finishing with a draw after a late Burnley equaliser.  Cardiff looked the better team, but couldn't go on and take the three points.  Either way, I hope my members got matched at good odds.  It was 3.95 to lay Burnley at one point when I checked, great value!

I should have another tip posted tomorrow afternoon for a game I have my eye on.

Hi All,

Looking at today's games it's quite difficult for me to pick out anything with great value, apart from a Championship game which I've tipped up for my subscribers.

Valencia v Schalke Champions League 15/2/11 7.45pm GMT

I think for a small to medium stakes bet, as in, 2-3% of bank, Valencia look good to break the curse of German teams against them. They should come away tonight after 90mins with either a win or draw. 

Raul returning to Spain as a Schalke player will add to the emotion, but I wouldn't get too caught up in this, as look at the fuss everyone made when Torres stepped out against Liverpool for Chelsea.  The reality was a lot less spectacular, although Raul is a great player and he will definitely add to Schalke's attacking options.  I still cannot see past a home win, or draw for Valencia.

I'll be trading the correct score market in this one, as the history between the two teams doesn't display particularly high scoring games, and also the tension will be high between these two with so much to lose, which could dampen the creative play.  Obviously I'm not Yoda and I could be totally wrong, but I think it's Valencia's day not to lose. They are performing really well in La Liga which is a really strong league this year, whereas Schalke are mid table in the Bundesliga putting in some average to good performances.

If I can get matched close to odds of 5.0 to lay Schalke I'll be laying them definitely, then hitting the hedge button to trade off if Valencia go ahead, or the odds move out enough to get close to 75% expected profit.  Thanks for reading.

Good luck!