DIVISION 3 MONDAY Sept 17

.
Not a lot to write home about today. With one exception, the few that had a go across all four divisions today couldn't come up with any winners bar Jillnextdoor, at 5/6, which was our only score today. No prizes for guessing who's the "lucky" winner - deadbrain59 with his fourth straight earner. That means he inches up the table another three places. Obviously DB is intent on taking the promo places by stealth rather than storm!

DB's laser-like napping so far raises the question for me of whether you could win simply by backing short-priced winners, say just odds-on shots. I doubt you could win the championship, but a promo place is a possibility, depending of course on your strike rate. So let's take a really hypothetical case:

In a 30-day month where you do all Sunday's and don't lose a single nap, and assuming let's say average odds of 1/2, you'd end up with £15 (give or take the odd R4 or dead heat), which is almost always I would think more than enough to guarantee moving on. But for each one you don't score with, that total effectively reduces by 2. And I'd say in an average month you'd need at least £9 to guarantee promotion. So you'd only need to lose four naps to fail or, to put it another way, you'd need something like an 87% strike rate. (Caution: my maths aint the greatest in the world, so feel free to pick holes in it! ) Sounds like a tall order to me. I know from awful experience how many shorties fail to perform (Camelot anyone? )

In deadbrain's case, though, his average so far has been about evens. So if he went on like that using the above scenario, in a full month a perfect score would net him  £30 - championship potential indeed! To get to the £8 point he'd need to win 19 times, a 64% strike rate. Well, certainly on the strength of his napping so far (ie 100% from four selections! ) that would be lemon squeezy. But, of course, one of the many variables I haven't counted in all this is non-runners, which add an extra element of uncertainty and would increase the necessary strike rate. DB's already had one. This will be fun to watch!

Best of luck to DB and everyone else tomorrow!

Incredibly difficult to obtain a 75% strike rate with odds on shots, i used to try it many years ago

Grand Art - 3.40 Muss.

Thx's. 

Weaver - Lunar Deity 3:20 Brighton

Red - Imperial Legend 5:10 Musselburgh

Billy - Invigilator 4:30 Wolverhampton

cheers Reged

bri 3.50 rapid water

My shortest price of the month on todays sh1te racing .... thought about putting up Courageous in the 3.20 Brighton but decided that Lunar Deity (same race) had slightly greater appeal at the relative prices.

So you know which one (if either) will win!........

GLE, Mad.

5.10 muss.Here Now And Why.cheers.

Opus Maximus - 5.30 Wolverhampton

Musselburgh 5.10 Blown It

Cheers Reg

rapid water - 2.50 brighton

4.40 muss kay gee bee
ty reged

caress  ~  Ebony Clarets 2.10M

horny38DD  ~  Berbice 2.40M

Thanks Reged

Reged heres an example
most popular nap of the day  Since Jan 1 391 picks  146 won  245 lost  37%  strike rate ALL were Favs .popular nap  today is   Progenitor  4 naps  ..3.00 wolver

For Nijinsky:

Spin Of A Coin - 2:30 Wolves

Cheers,

Ryedale Dancer  2.00  Wolver

Medam - 17:00 Wolv please

Faoilean 5,35 List.

thanks

5.10 musselburgh imperial legend

Just Lille 4.40 Muss

thanks Reged