DIVISION 3 MONDAY Sept 17

POS	CHG	FORM	NAME	SELECTION	RESULT	+/-	TOTAL
1▲		-000031	N-east Correspondent	No Selection		0.00	£23.61
2▲		0010113	bluenose7	No Selection		0.00	£14.75
3▲		-n31000	lagmorian (3)	No Selection		0.00	£13.75
4▲		0010101	pauli	Finch Flyer - 16:10 Bath	Lost	-1.00	£11.50
5▲		-331110	Nijinsky	No Selection		0.00	£11.13
6	+1	-320230	LordyLordy	No Selection		0.00	£9.00
7	-1	-010101	angeleyz	Mister Musicmaster - 16:00 Ffos	Lost	-1.00	£8.20
8		3001110	madhatters	Minalisa - 16:00 Ffos	Lost	-1.00	£6.50
9		0300110	uptheboro	Hip Hip Hooray - 14:40 Bath	Lost	-1.00	£3.50
10	+1	4111110	pension fund	No Selection		0.00	£3.05
11	-1	1121030	mini me	Dream Catcher - 17:10 Bath	Lost	-1.00	£2.73
12		0220102	madhatter	No Selection		0.00	£1.25
13		0311000	swift-tuttle (1)	Cavite Beta - 16:20 List	Lost	-1.00	£0.18
14		-021030	WakingtheDead	No Selection		0.00	-£0.37
15		201n100	MOB	Lizzy's Dream - 17:30 Ffos	Lost	-1.00	-£2.42
16		-2011d1	KBGJ	No Selection		0.00	-£2.52
17		-201100	sonofshinner	No Selection		0.00	-£3.50
18		0000300	JH Rogers	Hip Hip Hooray - 14:40 Bath	Lost	-1.00	-£4.75
19	+3	n111	deadbrain59	Jillnextdoor - 14:30 Ffos	1st 5/6	0.83	-£4.81
20	-1	00nn010	GAVBEN (2)	Sarangoo - 15:40 Bath	Lost	-1.00	-£5.25
21		-201100	Weaver Fish (2)	No Selection		0.00	-£5.39
22	+1	1000002	dukeofpuke	No Selection		0.00	-£5.72
23	-3	0200410	zipper	Clean Blow - 15:30 Ffos	Lost	-1.00	-£5.75
24		-n00000	Red Hand (2)	No Selection		0.00	-£6.50
25		-20020d	pumphol.	No Selection		0.00	-£7.00
26		-010020	Horny38DD (3)	No Selection		0.00	-£7.50
27	+1	00ddddd	berniedinneen	No Selection		0.00	-£8.00
28	-1	-300310	geos1	Hip Hip Hooray - 14:40 Bath	Lost	-1.00	-£8.62
29		-003000	shanelee1966	Cheveton - 16:30 Ffos	2nd	-1.00	-£9.50
29	+1	0010200	khyber kim	No Selection		0.00	-£9.50
29	+1	-dd0dn0	age 21	No Selection		0.00	-£9.50
32		-031200	caress (3)	No Selection		0.00	-£9.50
33		2032301	One Shot 2 Shot	No Selection		0.00	-£10.00
34		-0330dd	betme	No Selection		0.00	-£10.12
35		002d200	Lusitano71	No Selection		0.00	-£10.97
36		-203033	BillyWhizzle (2)	No Selection		0.00	-£12.00
37		-030003	ged	No Selection		0.00	-£13.00
38		0000020	Trusty	No Selection		0.00	-£14.00

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Not a lot to write home about today. With one exception, the few that had a go across all four divisions today couldn't come up with any winners bar Jillnextdoor, at 5/6, which was our only score today. No prizes for guessing who's the "lucky" winner - deadbrain59 with his fourth straight earner. That means he inches up the table another three places. Obviously DB is intent on taking the promo places by stealth rather than storm!

DB's laser-like napping so far raises the question for me of whether you could win simply by backing short-priced winners, say just odds-on shots. I doubt you could win the championship, but a promo place is a possibility, depending of course on your strike rate. So let's take a really hypothetical case:

In a 30-day month where you do all Sunday's and don't lose a single nap, and assuming let's say average odds of 1/2, you'd end up with £15 (give or take the odd R4 or dead heat), which is almost always I would think more than enough to guarantee moving on. But for each one you don't score with, that total effectively reduces by 2. And I'd say in an average month you'd need at least £9 to guarantee promotion. So you'd only need to lose four naps to fail or, to put it another way, you'd need something like an 87% strike rate. (Caution: my maths aint the greatest in the world, so feel free to pick holes in it! ) Sounds like a tall order to me. I know from awful experience how many shorties fail to perform (Camelot anyone? )

In deadbrain's case, though, his average so far has been about evens. So if he went on like that using the above scenario, in a full month a perfect score would net him  £30 - championship potential indeed! To get to the £8 point he'd need to win 19 times, a 64% strike rate. Well, certainly on the strength of his napping so far (ie 100% from four selections! ) that would be lemon squeezy. But, of course, one of the many variables I haven't counted in all this is non-runners, which add an extra element of uncertainty and would increase the necessary strike rate. DB's already had one. This will be fun to watch!

Best of luck to DB and everyone else tomorrow!

* sorry DB, that shd have been deadbrain59

Incredibly difficult to obtain a 75% strike rate with odds on shots, i used to try it many years ago

Thanks for the update and summary Reged.  Well done to DB59 our only winning napster today - 4th straight winning nap DB, great stuff.

Grand Art - 3.40 Muss.

Thx's. 

Cheers for the great updates as usual Reg

Trawled thru that stuff from Undecided - scary !!
Top ten only in prof yearly
20/150 for 8 months
Contaminated a bit by latecomers & dropouts

Todays stats interesting for us newbies to aim for
We obviously don't or didn't know where the bar is/was usually
I wondered the same after watching what players like Angel & Swifty were putting up before DB came in
Summat to watch indeed

Weaver - Lunar Deity 3:20 Brighton

Red - Imperial Legend 5:10 Musselburgh

Billy - Invigilator 4:30 Wolverhampton

cheers Reged

REGED,i wouldnt make a case out for my selections,ive got no interest,in where i finish in the table,i just thought i could contribute,my own personal way of backing,i dont think i have backed one worse than 4/6,i wont put any up at 1/10,like some in the premier div did last week,complete waste of time.gl tomorrow,DB.

bri 3.50 rapid water

Moviesta - 4.0 Wolverhampton

My shortest price of the month on todays sh1te racing .... thought about putting up Courageous in the 3.20 Brighton but decided that Lunar Deity (same race) had slightly greater appeal at the relative prices.

So you know which one (if either) will win!........

GLE, Mad.

So...to confirm...Lunar Deity - 3.20 Brighton please reged

5.10 muss.Here Now And Why.cheers.

Consonance - 3.35 Listowel

Opus Maximus - 5.30 Wolverhampton

5-30 Wolverhampton: Phase Shift.

Thanks Reged and good luck everyone.

Musselburgh 5.10 Blown It

Cheers Reg

The Bells O Peover 15:40 Musselburgh

thanks reged, gl all

rapid water - 2.50 brighton

Interakt - 320 Bri

Thanks

4.40 muss kay gee bee
ty reged

Wee Jimmy, taking it this is for Lordy

WeeJimmyMcTavish • September 17, 2012 8:12 AM BST
Opus Maximus - 5.30 Wolverhampton

caress  ~  Ebony Clarets 2.10M

horny38DD  ~  Berbice 2.40M

Thanks Reged

Morning Reged ,in your write up re % below are the facts
Shane is right about  80% favs odds or not
Favs win since time began ..33% of the time  now that may sound  low but no other price group has a bigger % ..eg 2nd favs  .. 3rd favs and so on
Its a fact 80% of races are won by the first 6 in the betting .

Reged heres an example
most popular nap of the day  Since Jan 1 391 picks  146 won  245 lost  37%  strike rate ALL were Favs .popular nap  today is   Progenitor  4 naps  ..3.00 wolver

Progenitor - 3.00 Wolv

Thanks Reged and GL all

For Nijinsky:

Spin Of A Coin - 2:30 Wolves

Cheers,

mini me:

Operateur 5.40M

Cheers

Ryedale Dancer  2.00  Wolver

La Bacouetteuse - 15:40 Muss

Medam - 17:00 Wolv please

The Bells Of Peover 3.40 Muss

Faoilean 5,35 List.

thanks

330 Wolves, Kakapuka.
Cheers.

5.10 musselburgh imperial legend

Kakapuka - 3:30 Wolves

Thanks Reg,

Just Lille 4.40 Muss

thanks Reged

First pick a N/R.. so 4.30 Invigilator  wolver

Merchants Return - 5.30 Wolverhampton

For KBGJ please

Volcanic Jack 5.30 Wolv

kay gee bee440 muss.

Wolver 5.30 Azrag

Thanks

wdZIPPER.

3.40 thirsk comrade bond