Cher - five star bet for elimination this week

stu

I tend not to get involved with these markets as I'm already in heavy enough as it is but yes it does seem a good price.  Mary appearing to be her nearest rival could well get a bounce and the Irish vote really behind her because they're trying to push her to the final at least which.

Fair enough donal, and obviously that happens in any bloc vote. But by far the majority of votes from Ireland will be going for Mary. Louis was on the radio in Ireland this week pushing for her votes in a key week.

Glad you're aboard Lou.

I think their demographic support and Cowell's ramping will see them comfortably through - whether they win is another question of course.

stu

Just using them as an example.  All biasedness aside i honestly think Matt will make it through surely but say Rebecca then for instance.  I'm not at all sure you know.  I think the other four (bar Matt) don't have that much between them.

stu

Yes perfect logic.

Donal, I'd agree somewhat with what you say above.
Yes, Louis is not the most popular. No, not everybody in Ireland is a Mary fan.
I pointed out before that there's the whole Dublin/culchie thing that alienates her from a lot of the country.

BUT, to be fair to Louis, he has ramped and fought like a trouper on Mary's behalf in all quarters. I think he genuinely gives a sh1t about her

Also there is the fact the she's his latest meal ticket, a la Jedward! And he's coining it fairly nicely off them pair of liúdramáns!

Plus he'd love an act in the final.

Therefore he's hammering her bigstyle. As are the red top and popular Irish media. The biggest barricade against Mary is the circus rings that Irish voters have to go through in order to exercise that vote.

She'll not win, but I think she will get a bounce that's substantial enough to get her through to the final. Certainly hope so.

G'wan Mary, ya gud ting!

Just add in another point on this one - Sheryl currently has two acts in Rebecca and Cher. I think they want Rebecca in that final (Cowell certainly does), so likely they give Rebecca a late slot and Cher an earlier one in the running order. Cher is clearly dispensable in their plans at this point. Having at least one of the 'older' acts in the finals is a demographics/viewing winner, not mention any additional Irish viewing of course.

Well I suppose the Rebecca question is in the balance at the moment, this week will be massive for her either way I think. I still think he wants her representing the show, which is why he used the term 'ambassador' a little while back. But guess we'll have to see on that one.

Yes shrewd, I'm Irish. Most on here know I am, I'd say.

Huge amount of media push for her. Whether that transfers in to votes remains to be seen.
That was proven last weekend - Fri night on the Late Late Show she got a ramp rom Joe McElderry and the show presenter Ryan Tubridy. He's also been plugging her on his morning radio 2fm anchor spot. Same story on the prime time chat show Sat night with Brendan O'Connor. That didn't seem to help her last weekend mind.

If she doesn't get through, it certainly won't be for the lack of trying.

Tesco have lifesize cut outs of her and are urging people to vote for her over the PA system. Early in the competition Tesco had to publicly defend their position of support because of the little twerp in 1D also in the competition.
Louis is in the red tops and on tv/radio at every opportunity.
She's not a dislikable individual. I work in a Uni here and there is broad support for her across the ages. Again whether they vote remains to be seen. I've a feeling that this weekend in particular thre will be a massive push behind her and that her bounce will be enough to get her through.
One of the tabloids had a story that her daughter couldn't make the semis because she had to work in Tesco and couldn't get further time off. Then she confirmed that one of the songs she was singing was "her mother's song" so she'd be with her. Louis has her cleverly positioned and well prepped, while at the same time deramping Cher as "not being very likable."

Laddies even ran a promo with posters in every store offering to refund all win bets if she didn't make it. I had a wee tickle in a couple of my local ones at 16s to keep a nice balance to the book. Never look a gift horse etc [;)]

Biggest obstacle is the fact that you've to go to the TV3 website after the show to find out the numbers to ring. Although the Irish Star are rumoured to be publishing the number for Mary this Sat and Sun on the front page of their paper

Multiculturalism doesn't stop you from taking pride in your own particular cultural heritage.

stu

Once again that's exactly what I'd have typed.  Great songs by the look of it, bit of sympathy from ladies 'of a certain size and age' etc.  Has a chance of proceeding and I hope she does.

Henry - you've no idea mate lol
On the Sat Night show I mentioned above there was a guy called Ray Darcy interviewed. He had the second highest daily radio show audience (possibly highest now I imagine, since Gerry Ryan's death) - I don't have the stats.

Ray reckons what Ireland needs to get it out of the current mess is a hybrid of 3 people....
1. Mary Byrne
2. Michael O'Leary
3. Fintan O'Toole (outspoken bolshie left wing political commentator about corruption and literary critic with the Irish Times).

Outrageous combo imho!

And the instant tongue in cheek retort from the show presenter Brendan O'Connor (whose opinion I would respect) was....
Why would you need Fintan O'Toole?

That'll give you an idea how this country is thinking right now

Interesting NXRBL, I guess all countries use "bread and circuses" in times of crises, I'm just hoping the Irish secret service doesn't try and fiddle a few million Mary votes

Multiculturalism doesn't stop you from taking pride in your own particular cultural heritage.

And that pride can be somehow divorced from anything affecting others, issues of power, voting etc. Yes that would work.

Oh hang on…

Hang on a minute, though - all this support wasn't enough to prevent Mary from being bottom three this week, so apart from the obvious bounce why would this week be any different?

Dizzy - if you read further up the thread Ive said they have both beaten each other in different weeks so obviously close between them.

Fair point Dizzy. I did point out on this and other threads that she was ramped last weekend in the Irish media and still was in drop zone.

There's a big BUT here... Nobody knew for sure until the 11th hour that it was a double elimination last week. Everybody assumed correctly that with the press she received last week and her ongoing flirtation with elimination, that Katie was the obvious one to go. A double bubble made a huge difference. The ploy was obviously to have rid of Wagner at the first opportunity, so he got the Paije/Aiden treatment of backhanded praise lolling his support into a false sense of security. Then got @r$egangraped by the judges in the SO.

Also there's the factor that there is a pretty obvious distance between Matt/Rebecca/1D and the rest. So any of the three remaining at that point Cher/Wagner/Mary + (Katie nailed on B2) were in jeopardy.

My opinion is that there may be very little in terms of support between Mary and Cher that a good regional push can't overcome.

If it were down to a sign off and a judges' decision I wouldn't even have a bet on it. But with a straight PV, I'd be quietly confident that Mary can make the final.

Now it's been spelt out in black and white that Mary is in trouble, there has been a hardening of support. People who may never have bothered to vote for her before in Ireland might now vote for her for two reasons: 1. To save her. 2. The distinct possibility that she could be part of a 4 act final.

I don't think my rationale is THAT out there. Mary has been punted on to go. And good luck to Mary elimination backers. But so was Katie for multiple weeks incorrectly. And certainly 15/8 Cher to go is too big for me.

We'll agree to differ.

No, I don't disagree... That's all well argued. And it could well be enough to prevent Mary from being bottom.

At the time of posting I didn't realise that there was no sing off this weekend - if that's the case, then Cher is in just as much danger, if not more.

I was working on the assumption that any of the others would be saved against Mary in a sing off.