X Factor 2010
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Figgy's Twitter Stats.
Figgy's Twitter Stats.
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Replies: 421
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laid back a bit of my bet on paige
really struggling this week with a solid play |
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sticking with my gut and paige to go at 5's. katie is big a evens but just feel they want her through
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Katie is a certainty for the bottom two - just a question of whether Paije or Wagner joins her.
If it's Paije, could be deadlock - in which case Katie goes. If it's Wagner, he's history. |
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not convinced theyll let it go to deadlock. think louis will vote before simon (other two dont matter) and he'll vote off paige. simon will stick with katie.
smart play probs is to back katie at evens and paige at 5.9. once confirmed i see it 1.33KW and 3/1 PR. nice book main part of the punt is that wagner has enough gas in his support to get out of bottom two which i believe he does. |
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I'm on the same play - Katie at 2.1 and Paije at 8s.
Wagner is a big danger though - obviously if he is in the sing off, he's history. |
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thats the gamble
 if not we're sucking diesel  |
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well done figgy
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cheers platinni.
I should have won more but laid a fair bit back in the sing off. |
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Great call, wouldn't have picked it at all myself. Pretty amazing to be beat by Katie, Waggy and Paije. Waggy is now getting on my t1ts.
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well done fig - followed you[;)]
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got out at 1.2, was going to lay more but bitchedd it. 33/1 deserved a bet. saying all week there was going to be a shock.
must do better |
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nice one Figgy - I had a chunk of 30/1 yesterday too. As I said in the live fred he was HUGELY overpriced. Shame I laid it all back at 5s. I should be happy with a modest win but always feel I've lost out in these circumstances :(
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katie is gonna take these bitches down one by one if she has to!
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othh id be happy with net 25pts,nice one
did make some laying at 1.23 an 1.28 |
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cheers othh. I laid way too much off too.
I didn't want to be left with a massive green if he stayed, which is what happened a few weeks back with Treyc. |
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don't suppose anyone has caught any of Xtra F ? Was wondering if there were any hints about next week - theme, single or double elim, etc.
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IAC here.
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drifted in and out squares and didn't hear anything of note (other than Dannii spitting blood when Konnie asked if she'd taken her eye off the ball with Aiden. Thought she was going to slap her!)
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well done guys
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yeah, sometimes it's utter kak and sometimes you hear a few useful things.
Pretty poor this year tho. |
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i did see the OTT Aiden post, took no notice tho
 Thought Aiden was safe |
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lol OTHH
Danni was raging after misinterpreting Konnie, was amusing later when Konnie was sucking up to her. |
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1D 317 (-107)
Matt 123 (-160) Mary 72 (+2) Rebecca 65 (-226) Katie 63 (+51) Wagner 48(+7) Paije 44 (+12) Cher 33 (-79) I'm not in line with Jack this week. Katie and Mary look safe ish to me, especially the latter. Cher the clear value to go even at the 14/1 she is now. There's a decent chance she could be bottom of the vote and go if it's 2-2 with the judges. |
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Dutching Cher, Waggy and Paije here
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I agree with Cher. I can see another Aiden and she falls straight through trap door. The twitterati are deserting her in droves and she has no middle england mum vote at all imo. I'm kicking myself for not taking the 90s but I'll settle for the 70s I got [;)]
Even if she is safe people taking big risks laying at those odds after what happened last week. |
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Thanks FLL
I'm big on Cher to go - nothing seems in favour of her this week and the prices look great even now. Interesting you have 1D top which will chew Cher's votes imo, but Jack has her second from top.  |
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Blimey 90's
I only got 20's. I reckon she'll be out to 20's or bigger tomorrow when the weekend punters get stuck into Wagner and Katie. So no rush to get on. I was taking 20's aiden last week not long after he sang and then managed some 50 on the sunday evening. |
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Actually £35 traded at 100/1 and some at 95s. Almost first time ever I played safe and traded at 16s to get my stake back. Anyway bet to nothing now.
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I'm slightly worried for Rebecca with a drop like that.
With the vote possibly close at the bottom she could be in slight trouble, but hopefully she's built up enough support to be clear. |
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Asaparagus I would argue that Jack's stats support the Cher plunge as he has her as the biggest percentage (?) faller. Momentum is everything in these things imo and once you have lost it if you don't have a big core vote you are toast.
Cher vote = emperor's new clothes. |
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Interesting fll
Rebecca doing badly on all measures I can see. Got £2 on at 500's just incase, wish I'd got a bit more now Very difficult week to call, you can make cases for virtually any of them being bottom two. 7 of the 8 have got straight through 6 weeks of votes, so will all have decent fanbases. Just a question of how big. Wouldn't even be surprised by a Mary/Rebecca bottom two tbh. As for Cher, think she will be alright personally. Even though they want controversy, they're not stupid enough to get rid of her if she does hit the bottom 2 anyway. (and I usually never trust the judges) Very interesting one. |
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This week, my own views are in line with these stats rather than Jack's.
I definitely think there will be a 'shock' in the bottom two, as they have deliberately tried to generate this with the running order - with Cher the likeliest candidate for me, although obviously saved in a sing-off scenario. Rebecca also potentially vulnerable, but again should be safe even if she does fall into bottom two. So the real question is which of Wagner, Paije, Katie or Mary is most likely to be in the bottom two with the 'shock' candidate? Very difficult to call; Pajie has been bombproof thus far, while Wagner's campaign shows no sign of abating just yet. |
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Mary will be close to top imo.
I'm amazed she's so short in the betting. I'm worried about Rebecca though and wouldn't be surprised to see a Rebecca v Cher B2. Fingers crossed she's built up enough support. |
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mary cher in bottom 2 from those who know
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How would you price up a Rebecca b2 appearance this week, fig?
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50s
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Mary would have to have a phenomenal non twitterati vote to be close to top imo. Purely based on poll stats she is in bottom two. Given we don't know impact of Irish vote I suspect she could well have enough of the middle aged/older vote to keep her safe this week.
Given she did ok last night and so many were shocking she should also pick up enough of the "watch the show and vote for the best" viewers whom I suspect are quite numerous. |
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I would give her more chance of being B2 than Mary.
7 or 8/1 maybe. She'll probably be ona round 8, 9%, 10% but if she dropped another couple of % she could be near the B2 in this very odd week. |
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george the only ones voting for mary are the irish and the fat women sat eating teir bacon sarnies and doughnuts whilst watching it imho
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I asked because she is 0.1 - 1 on the spread, which is reasonable I think. With a bonus (but unlikely) elimination enhancement thrown in.
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